Coronavirus Thread

[Sol thewall Bamba]

9 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

People are still getting the virus but it’s leading to far far fewer hospitalisations. I read this morning that there’s one patient currently in UHL on a ventilator?

I’m guessing it’s the vaccine that’s enabling this to be true. 
The govt always equated lock down with over-burden on the NHS, so this can’t be an argument anymore surely? 
I really do think we just have to get on with it and keep educating those who don’t want the vaccine to have it

Quite, like I say the only real metric that has noticeably increased is cases, yet that is apparently enough to delay. Why will that change in 4 weeks time? 

 

"The virus has the potential the overwhelm the NHS" isn't justification either, this mutation is the first in a long line, lots of future variants will have "potential", at some point we need to trust the vaccines, get boosters in the arms of the vulnerable in the autumn and move on from this. 

[filbertway]

27 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

But the vaccine doesn't stop you getting it, and all we're delaying on the basis of at the moment is an increase of cases? So if we're at say, 15/20K cases a day in 4 weeks time but there's not a similar rise in hospitalisations, you're saying this government will have the balls to stand up and say that they're confident the link has been broken, we'll declare ourselves as safe to progress and off we go? 

 

Absolutely no chance. 

They're delaying it to confirm that the vaccines are working as expected. I dont think they're tremendously worried about cases, it's about hospitlisations and deaths, but they won't kick in til 14-21 days after. So we have to give enough time to see what the craic is.

 

4 weeks seems like a weird arbitraty time frame though. By the time we're at the 21st it'll be 2/3 weeks since the increases started happening. So i'd expect us to have a good amount of data by june 28th. If there's a clear break then they could announce that 5th July will be the day. If it's not looking good then god knows what we do. I'd be throwing everything I could at the NHS to have specific buildings to deal with infections though

[filbertway]

Just now, filbertway said:

They're delaying it to confirm that the vaccines are working as expected. I dont think they're tremendously worried about cases, it's about hospitlisations and deaths, but they won't kick in til 14-21 days after. So we have to give enough time to see what the craic is.

 

4 weeks seems like a weird arbitraty time frame though. By the time we're at the 21st it'll be 2/3 weeks since the increases started happening. So i'd expect us to have a good amount of data by june 28th. If there's a clear break then they could announce that 5th July will be the day. If it's not looking good then god knows what we do. I'd be throwing everything I could at the NHS to have specific buildings to deal with infectious viruses/diseases

 

[z-layrex]

Still very little covid at work. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

16 minutes ago, filbertway said:

They're delaying it to confirm that the vaccines are working as expected. I dont think they're tremendously worried about cases, it's about hospitlisations and deaths, but they won't kick in til 14-21 days after. So we have to give enough time to see what the craic is.

Two weeks ago the 7 day average was about 2400, up from about 1400 10 days before that. 

 

Are hospitalisations 60% or so higher than they were two weeks ago, showing a link between cases and hospitalisations? Also we had Chris Hopson saying days ago that the link had been broken regardless of the Delta strain being here. 

 

Edit, just looked and they're about 20% higher than 2 weeks ago despite a 60% increase in cases accounting for the lag period. 

 

I get the need to look at the data but either the vaccines work against the Delta variant or they don't. If they don't then we're fvcked regardless of if we open up now or in 5 weeks time. 

Edited 14 June 2021 by Sol thewall Bamba

[Dan LCFC]

3 hours ago, Bert said:

It’s frustrating, more for people that have weddings and other things planned. Apparently this 4 weeks will be the absolute end though. 
 

We need to learn to live with this now, just like we have done other infectious diseases that spread. 

If that was an absolute cast-iron guarantee, I think I could stomach it (and I'm sure plenty of others, totally understandably, could not).

 

But I'll believe it when it happens. 

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Dunge said:

Be fair now. We elect people every five years to change laws as we want, do we not? Well, why can’t we do the same with the laws of physics?

 

You’re not thinking outside the box here.

 

Biology?

[Leicester_Loyal]

It is what it is.

[leicsmac]

14 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Biology?

Can you elaborate on this one a bit, mate?

[Buce]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

Can you elaborate on this one a bit, mate?

 

Sure.

 

Dung speculated that we might change the laws of physics (as we do governments), but biological laws are more pertinent to a virus, are they not?

[leicsmac]

Just now, Buce said:

 

Sure.

 

Dung speculated that we might change the laws of physics (as we do governments), but biological laws are more pertinent to a virus, are they not?

Ah right.

 

Yeah, perhaps that would have been a better example. Voting to change the way a virus operates is about as useful as voting to change how gravity does, after all.

[ian__marshall]

53 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Two weeks ago the 7 day average was about 2400, up from about 1400 10 days before that. 

 

Are hospitalisations 60% or so higher than they were two weeks ago, showing a link between cases and hospitalisations? Also we had Chris Hopson saying days ago that the link had been broken regardless of the Delta strain being here. 

 

Edit, just looked and they're about 20% higher than 2 weeks ago despite a 60% increase in cases accounting for the lag period. 

 

I get the need to look at the data but either the vaccines work against the Delta variant or they don't. If they don't then we're fvcked regardless of if we open up now or in 5 weeks time. 

I take your point and I'm as frustrated as anyone about this as I have a milestone birthday the week after the original date so my plans have gone out of the window, however the figures you're quoting are off a very small baseline. If this is left to accelerate at an exponential rate (and there's more than enough people who aren't vaccinated to allow this to happen) the hospitals will be overwhelmed again and key services will have to be suspended. Waiting lists are already going to take at least several years to clear and the services simply can't afford practically or politically for any further delays. 

[st albans fox]

3 hours ago, Bert said:

Just going on what I’ve read. 
 

As a side note, I have very little interest in politics. Who would you say is the right person to run the country? 

i reckon its between me, babs, stan and harry .......

[SpacedX]

1 hour ago, OrielCaziado said:

So are you saying that scientists have no political leanings or motivations whatsoever ? 

To reiterate, you'll find novel virus has "no political leanings or motivations".

 

We've been through this many, many times before, on this thread and the climate change thread thread. 

 

To clarify, and if you read my post again, I was referring to "known science" Of course publications can be ghost written and scientists 'bought out' or swayed by agenda...we've seen it historically and it will happen again. I'm not sure what particular "political agenda" that you think those offering guidelines and advising upon regulations are pursuing mind. Our current government hasn't heeded them closely enough.

 

Many including myself would agree concerning the dangers of vested interests or private sector involvement - particularly in respect of the proliferation of low quality journals and the institutional pressure to publish marginal or fallacious findings - but it is easy to exaggerate the extent to which this impedes discovery. Scrutiny through peer review is still rigorous and although far from flawless, this independent sifting process offers a more stringent critique than any pre-publication referee. Indeed the greatest acclaim and recognition in science has always gone to those that refute a claim or see far beyond it. As I've needed to explain many, many times on this forum, that's a countervailing motive far stronger than the pressure to conform or remain in the thrall of corporate/political interest. 

 

As @leicsmac explained, let the scientific method be the leveler. 

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

16 minutes ago, ian__marshall said:

I take your point and I'm as frustrated as anyone about this as I have a milestone birthday the week after the original date so my plans have gone out of the window, however the figures you're quoting are off a very small baseline. If this is left to accelerate at an exponential rate (and there's more than enough people who aren't vaccinated to allow this to happen) the hospitals will be overwhelmed again and key services will have to be suspended. Waiting lists are already going to take at least several years to clear and the services simply can't afford practically or politically for any further delays. 

Appreciate it's a narrow window but if there was a strong link between cases and hospitalisations like there was before the vaccine, admissions would be much higher than they are now. 

[RonnieTodger]

I find it very hard to believe that they'll lift restrictions in July. If it's not satisfactory now, I doubt it will be then.

[foxile5]

What elements of lockdown really remain? Besides restricted numbers for weddings and that? We're hardly under the cosh like over Christmas. 

[martyn]

Am keeping an eye on the ZOE figures again. The rate of growth in estimated cases has been slowing down over the last 4 or 5 days. Hopefully that continues.

[Livid]

Anyone else had a play with this ?

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Leicester 

[Leicester_Loyal]

13 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

What elements of lockdown really remain? Besides restricted numbers for weddings and that? We're hardly under the cosh like over Christmas. 

It's more of an annoyance than any thing else to me tbh.

 

For others though it must be horrible if their livelihood, business or health is being impacted by it all.

[Finnaldo]

29 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

What elements of lockdown really remain? Besides restricted numbers for weddings and that? We're hardly under the cosh like over Christmas. 

I saw an estimate of £3 billion of potential business lost for ‘pubs, bars and hotels’ on BBC News this morning. I don’t know if that will take into account venues, that I assume will have to delay, refund or downsize events like gigs, festivals and weddings. It’s another calendar month of lost or massively decreased earnings for a lot of businesses when all indications suggest the hospitalisations are trending towards day trips and non-ICU general ward treatment and deaths have continued to stay just into double figures.

 

I agreed with the last three lockdowns, I understood they had to look at the data and couldn’t bring the date forward, but now it seems like we’re being completely risk averse to the detriment of the economy. The whole five week breaker between restriction relaxation was with caution in mind, and we’ve found:

 

1) Cases have gone up, as was expected 

 

2) Hospitalisations have risen, but now with manageable general ward treatment, which the chief exec of NHS Providers himself called a ‘promising sign’ 

 

3) Limited serious or life-threatening cases outside the vaccinated population which will be verging on 90% of adults by the 21 June. 
 

Add to that Bolton’s cases are now dropping with targeted testing and vaccination (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57425730). Correct me if I’m wrong but that’s the first time we’ve controlled spread in an area without need of tightening restrictions. 

 

With all that said, I’m looking forward to the press conference tonight to see the explanation and science behind it. There’s been nothing released publicly that suggests to me that we need to detriment our economy with four weeks ‘just to be sure’.

[David Hankey]

Vaccinations should be mandatory.

[Corky]

I don't want a press conference with slides and chat, just for once can Johnson stand up and apologise, say "this is on me and this Government and we're to blame?"

 

The vast majority of this country did as it was told and brought infections and deaths right down, we've been let down on this.

[StanSP]

5 minutes ago, Corky said:

I don't want a press conference with slides and chat, just for once can Johnson stand up and apologise, say "this is on me and this Government and we're to blame?"

 

The vast majority of this country did as it was told and brought infections and deaths right down, we've been let down on this.

Never gonna happen so no need to even get your hopes up that it will! He won't even acknowledge the government have ever done anything wrong. Nothing is ever their fault.

[Corky]

10 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Never gonna happen so no need to even get your hopes up that it will! He won't even acknowledge the government have ever done anything wrong. Nothing is ever their fault.

Yeah, I know, just fed up that we've been restricted and lectured about our behaviour and, this time, it isn't the fault of the vast majority.