Possible 2nd lockdown for Leicester?

[WigstonWanderer]

10 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

They per 100k population, I dont know what makes you think otherwise.

 

If you think I am wrong, read the report compiled by public health England, I put it in this very thread.

 

It shows graphs per population, and also shows graphs per test, on the per test Leicester is only about 20% worse, on the per population it skyrockets, and the author of the report even put in the notes the numbers per population are due to the testing.  I can relink the document if you cant find it, let me know.

 

But of course there is also the fact people without symptoms can get tested in Leicester, whilst you are required to have symptoms elsewhere.

TBH I was just confirming for my own benefit that I had understood what @Fktf had written earlier as prior to that I had been rather confused as to exactly what metric was being quoted. I wasn’t trying to add to the base of information about the stats themselves, so apologies if I have introduced any confusion.

 

Nevertheless, the argument still holds. If (as you say) the hit rate (positive tests per 100k) is still 20% higher than elsewhere despite doing many more tests, then you do have a more significant problem. You would expect the wider sample in Leicester, which is diluted with a load of asymptomatic people, to have a lower hit rate.
 

I agree that in these circumstances (many more tests) the positive rate per 100k population cannot be compared with elsewhere. In any case, any statistician worth his salt should be able to correct for different rates I should have thought. Whether the government are playing any political games or not I have no idea.

Edited 17 July 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[FoxesDeb]

8 hours ago, peach0000 said:

Oadby and Wigston is a Lib Dem stronghold not tory. 24 out of the 26 seats on the council are Lib Dem.

It's Harborough ward though, so at government level it's definitely Tory, and I thought it was the government who decided on the lockdown? 

[CosbehFox]

10 hours ago, Miquel The Work Geordie said:

 

Such a grim gaff - I give the White Horse a swerve these days in all, beer is shite. Selection not gonna bowl you over in The Plough either but it's well kept and makes it the only boozer in the village worth visiting which is incredible really given the size of the metropolis. Thank Christ it's the best served village for buses in the county.

The Plough has carpet - stained carpet. That's a good starter for ten. And you defo know them cask pipes haven't been cleaned for five years. 

 

Time to set up some micro-bar MTWG out of Gunn's Gym or something. What happened to the Trees in the end?

[peach0000]

2 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

It's Harborough ward though, so at government level it's definitely Tory, and I thought it was the government who decided on the lockdown? 

Local level it's definitely Lib Dem and it's worth noting traditionally the Harborough Parliamentary constituency although Tory for decades would always have about a third voting Lib Dem which suggests to me the people from Oadby and Wigston were still in large numbers voting Lib Dem in general elections up until about 2010 but were probably being drowned out by all the villages and Market Harborough itself. The answer of whether Oadby and Wigston is Tory or not is a really complicated on to get to the bottom of but personally I think the borough council results which is just Oadby and Wigston show where peoples allegiances lie in those areas.

 

Also the suggestion (rightly or wrongly) is that national government is trying in someway to punish local councils which are held by opposition parties of which Oadby and Wigston is definitely one. Plus the decision came of the back of advice from Leicestershire County Council on which areas should stay under lockdown and from articles I've read in the past Oadby and Wigston Borough Council is not very well liked by Leicestershire County Council for mainly political reasons.

[Miquel The Work Geordie]

15 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

The Plough has carpet - stained carpet. That's a good starter for ten. And you defo know them cask pipes haven't been cleaned for five years. 

 

Time to set up some micro-bar MTWG out of Gunn's Gym or something. What happened to the Trees in the end?

 

Aha I like the Plough, it's got a dog, the landlord recognises you and the people in there aren't complete gobshites unlike the White Horse which is proper part time drinker central. Trees was weird mate, my closest pub - think the landlord married a Thai woman and they tried to knock on a Thai restaurant to it - it failed and whoever owned it sold it off to developers six or seven years ago, houses now.

There's big potential for either a boozer that has decent beer or is simply located that side of the village since all the developments up the A6 - the three pubs, social club and the legion are all within about two hundred yards of each other in a tiny corner of it.

(Apologies for derailing the thread here)

[FoxesDeb]

11 minutes ago, peach0000 said:

Local level it's definitely Lib Dem and it's worth noting traditionally the Harborough Parliamentary constituency although Tory for decades would always have about a third voting Lib Dem which suggests to me the people from Oadby and Wigston were still in large numbers voting Lib Dem in general elections up until about 2010 but were probably being drowned out by all the villages and Market Harborough itself. The answer of whether Oadby and Wigston is Tory or not is a really complicated on to get to the bottom of but personally I think the borough council results which is just Oadby and Wigston show where peoples allegiances lie in those areas.

 

Also the suggestion (rightly or wrongly) is that national government is trying in someway to punish local councils which are held by opposition parties of which Oadby and Wigston is definitely one. Plus the decision came of the back of advice from Leicestershire County Council on which areas should stay under lockdown and from articles I've read in the past Oadby and Wigston Borough Council is not very well liked by Leicestershire County Council for mainly political reasons.

I didn't know that, thanks 

[Ollie93]

When do restrictions get lifted? Did the new 'boundary' come into effect last night of the 24th?

[stix]

7 minutes ago, Ollie93 said:

When do restrictions get lifted? Did the new 'boundary' come into effect last night of the 24th?

24th

[MonmoreStef]

16 minutes ago, stix said:

24th

They love to drag these things out.  Quite why it couldn’t be with immediate affect I don’t understand.

[stix]

11 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

They love to drag these things out.  Quite why it couldn’t be with immediate affect I don’t understand.

Means fvck all to me either way cos I’m still in the lurgy zone. 

[MonmoreStef]

5 minutes ago, stix said:

Means fvck all to me either way cos I’m still in the lurgy zone. 

You have my sympathy.  So many people I know from areas with less cases than where I am and they’ve had to cancel their holidays and plans due to the unfairness of it. We all know where the problem is.

[stix]

Has there been any new confirmation/clarity on whether pubs in the newly unlocked areas can reopen on 24th? Because as I heard it yesterday and then read again this morning, restrictions that were lifted nationwide on 4th July in the hospitality sector will still remain closed. 

Edited 17 July 2020 by stix

[Samilktray]

I’m in thurmaston so do this mean I can now go to the pub for a pint this weekend or do I have to wait until the 24th. All seems very unnecessarily confusing 

[stix]

6 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

I’m in thurmaston so do this mean I can now go to the pub for a pint this weekend or do I have to wait until the 24th. All seems very unnecessarily confusing 

Im not sure you can even go then tbh. That’s how I read it anyway. 

[joachim1965]

47 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

I’m in thurmaston so do this mean I can now go to the pub for a pint this weekend or do I have to wait until the 24th. All seems very unnecessarily confusing 

Don't worry, all of us outside the zone will nip out and have a couple for you.

[Paninistickers]

Just back from a few days away to the coast  following my escape from Leicester. 

 

The hospitality sector is a fascinating shambles a the moment. Most - but not all - ask you to scribble a name and number on a pad. Obvs anyone could write down any name and number they wanted. Some won't serve on crockery or in real glass, others will. One wouldn't show sport on the screen citing 'boris Johnson'. 

 

I enjoyed the ashen face of one who insisted on a postcode and upon hearing 'LE' did a comedy gulp and lost her train of thought. The sort of face people used to have in the 1980s if you'd admitted to unprotected sex with Freddie Mercury. 

 

The upside is everywhere is far more organised than ever before. And politer too. No nightmare waits for service or food or the bill. No 3 deep at a bar trying to catch the bar staff's eyes

 

 

[Chrysalis]

18 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

I meant how do you explain Oadby and Wigston still being under the extended lockdown given that they are Conservative, when your reasoning for Leicester still being under lockdown was because it is a Labour area? 

I just said it, a staggered release to avoid questions been asked.

 

Leicester is mostly Labour, its an area which has minimal political costs to the tories.

[Chrysalis]

18 hours ago, orangecity23 said:

Maps from the mercury, and data is 2 weeks old - from the councils own report. This is their "proof" the lockdown wasn't needed. It's the pre lockdown map. So if anything, the dots outside the city border and around Glenfield justify the original lockdown boundary.

Full report

https://www.leicester.gov.uk/media/186767/measuring-covid-19-in-leicester-15-july-2020.pdf

Don't know about other cities, but if this is Soulsby's "smoking gun" to prove the lockdown wasn't needed its not terribly persuasive. Seems to show a smattering of hospital admissions all over the city, and a long "tail" on the distribution of death and pillar one test positives. The conclusion the report seems to be drawing is that cases aren't spiralling upwards - but the counter to that is they've shown their not really falling away yet either.

 

If this is all politically motivated - then why Leicester? There's Labour strongholds all over the country in inner cities, so why is Leicester the only one chosen? The Tories big plan is to embarass Labour in a city where the chances of Labour losing an MP or even a single council seat is about zero? Just to spite Jon Ashworth?

Until we see other cities, then its hard to really use this map as a guidance, I expect many areas of the country "not" in lockdown have scatted orange type spots of cases.  I think that people who think the rest of the country is all cured, with near zero cases are in dreamland.  On the document I linked there is other towns with very similar infection rates.  Has anyone here actually read the document? or you just sheep listening to minister statements?

 

e.g. my part of the city has a lower case count then glenfield, yet I am in lockdown on the 24th, and glenfield will be removed.

 

The reason I say the boundaries are political is because they are not "natural" boundaries.

 

A proper boundary would be some fields, or perhaps a airport or something like that, not in the middle of a road in a high populated area such as dominion road.  The lockdown should have either been the entire county, or maybe all of the residential areas within the proximity of the city, syston etc., or just the specific roads of the hotspots, the lockdown we have now is just "strange", the boundaries are incredibly odd.

 

Do you live inside the lockdown?

 

Personally I think this is a social experiment.  They want to see how many people without symptoms are actually infected, it was never practical to do the testing required nationwide, so they had to pick a specific area, and I expect they also wanted to see how the public reacts to locking down a specific area.

 

The next step of this experiment could be happening as soon as next week, as there is now going to be laws passed to enforce travel restrictions and some other powers as well.

 

The bbc continue to use the quote of 3x infection rates, when its not an infection rate, its a infection "count" rate and count are two very different things,  it is a per 100k population not a per 100k tests.  There is 12 mobile testing units in the "entire country" and 8 of them are in Leicester. Interestingly the university of Leicester is doing some specific covid 19 research.

 

I dont think there is some kind of aim to cause distress to politically opposed people, its just that Leicester conveniently does have higher then average infection rates (I do acknowledge this), however it was never 3x higher than the second highest area, at the same time there isnt many tory voters here, and it also has a very weak economy, we are one of the poorest areas in the country, so the economical damage is minimal, its kind of like having all the stars line up perfectly.  We have seen other locations get spikes, and in every single one of them, there is no locked down city, or even locked down town/village.

 

The mayor is an idiot, I dont particularly like him, he isnt helping matters by just doing a pass the buck game.

 

Also if Leicester is too risky to release lockdown, why have schools been authorised to reopen on the 24th when children are super spreaders?

 

Just to add, I am mainly asking these questions because of how the government is acting, they telling employees, to not speak to the media, they witholding lots of information, and they blatantly sending misleading statements to the press.  If they were acting in a trustworthy manner I perhaps wouldnt be questioning them.

 

Many articles like the below by NHS employees.

 

https://lockdownsceptics.org/why-leicester-doesnt-need-a-local-lockdown/

Edited 17 July 2020 by Chrysalis

[Chrysalis]

16 hours ago, Fktf said:

I appreciate the effort. Genuinely. It's nice to talk about the substance of the matter. The bitch is that I'm colour blind! I think I can work out what you mean, though. The pillar 1 pillar 2 thing certainly does confound things. From your figures, I (think - based on the position of the lines not the colours!) will concede that a rise in diagnoses from pillar 2 testing can in part be attributed to increase in testing. 

 

The issue for me is that the proportion of positive returns (from all testing) is increasing (or at least it was in June) - which indicates an actual increase in cases, rather than an increase in testing due to an artefact of more testing. 

 

 

Yep I already accepted that also, Leicester at the time the report was written had a R rating of above 1, which yes means cases were rising, however other towns/cities in the top 20 were also above 1, Leicester's R rating was only slightly higher.

[MrsJohnMurphy]

So it starts tomorrow?

 

https://www.leicestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/how-you-can-help/increased-restrictions-for-leicester-and-parts-of-leicestershire-announced

[Chrysalis]

Quote

If you pay your council tax to Leicester City Council or Oadby and Wigston Borough Council, restrictions will remain in place.

There is a massive bit that sticks out between braunstone town and glenfield simply because it falls under leics city council. haha.  Political lines.

Edited 17 July 2020 by Chrysalis

[stix]

If every other major city in England were to be tested at the same level that Leicester has since the local lockdown then id bet that there would be a fair few other cities in the same boat as us. 

[Costock_Fox]

Cancel your direct debt, job done 

[CosbehFox]

The political snipes are on this are horrid. No need for either involved party to turn it that way. Baffling Soulsby felt the need to say it when he looks after a Labour stronghold. Gave enough for Leicestershire Tory MP to take a shot - including the likes of Rutland’s MP. 

[Chrysalis]

What is people's opinion of these new powers coming into law next week, do you think they will be used in the Leicester lockdown?

 

If they are applied then ironically the media portraying the lockdown as been eased could be very misleading.

 

As last week one could travel, no real enforcement, potentially next week one inside the lockdown might be under a stay in home order, or unable to travel to places like Glenfield as that would now be counted as out of Leicester.