Things you can't get your head around...

[Buce]

 

The Birthday Problem which shows that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50% probability that two will share the same birthday; 99.9% probability is reached at 70 people.

 

It is so counterintuitive as to be mind blowing.

[Benguin]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

The Birthday Problem which shows that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50% probability that two will share the same birthday; 99.9% probability is reached at 70 people.

 

It is so counterintuitive as to be mind blowing.

Intuition leads you to think of yourself in that room asking the other 22 people when their birthday is. If that’s all that happened, then it’s not only logical but factual that there’s about a 1 in 13 chance they’ll match. 
 

The actuality though is that once you’ve asked everyone, someone else will ask everyone and so on and by the time everyone’s asked each other the possibilities of a match are exponentially higher.

 

I do love things like this and you’re absolutely right about counterintuitive. The first time I heard it, I got so angry and though the other person was a moron! 

[TiffToff88]

10 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

The Birthday Problem which shows that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50% probability that two will share the same birthday; 99.9% probability is reached at 70 people.

 

It is so counterintuitive as to be mind blowing.

So in theory, one of the next 22 people to see my post will share the same birthday as me? (18th of March)

[Benguin]

2 minutes ago, TiffToff88 said:

So in theory, one of the next 22 people to see my post will share the same birthday as me? (18th of March)

No but one of the next 22 people will have a 50% chance of sharing a birthday with you or one of the other 22 people that view your post

[TiffToff88]

A little side note to this, my best friend growing up was actually born in the same hospital ward as me on the same night (me just before midnight, him just after, so different birthdays). What are the odds of that!?

[Jattdogg]

50 minutes ago, TiffToff88 said:

A little side note to this, my best friend growing up was actually born in the same hospital ward as me on the same night (me just before midnight, him just after, so different birthdays). What are the odds of that!?

When i was growing up, my nextdoor neighbour and good friend had the exact same birthday as me including year. Just the hours were different.

[AyewJoking]

2 hours ago, TiffToff88 said:

A little side note to this, my best friend growing up was actually born in the same hospital ward as me on the same night (me just before midnight, him just after, so different birthdays). What are the odds of that!?

Is your best friend your twin brother?

[Wymsey]

How foxestalkisfullofidiots got their member name approved..

[Strokes]

On 10/11/2020 at 14:48, Stadt said:

It’s obvious isn’t it? The only other pulling that springs to mind is pulling your plonker or pulling pints and they’re both straight forward enough  

Yeah but practice makes perfect right? 

[Wymsey]

People who clean their teeth right before breakfast.

[Jattdogg]

6 hours ago, Wymsey said:

People who clean their teeth right before breakfast.

Its all about before and after breakkie. Double cleaning!

[Alf Bentley]

On 10/11/2020 at 14:48, Stadt said:

It’s obvious isn’t it? The only other pulling that springs to mind is pulling your plonker or pulling pints and they’re both straight forward enough  

 

Straightforward in isolation, but attempting the two in tandem would be tough to coordinate - and you'd probably lose your job as a barman.

[Alf Bentley]

On 15/11/2020 at 11:09, Buce said:

 

The Birthday Problem which shows that in a room of just 23 people, there is a 50% probability that two will share the same birthday; 99.9% probability is reached at 70 people.

 

It is so counterintuitive as to be mind blowing.

 

Just sort of got my brain to accept this concept by starting at the other end.....

 

When the last person of 23 enters the room, assuming the others all have different birthdays, there's about a 6% chance that someone will have the same birthday as that last individual (22/365.25)

When the previous  person entered the room, there was just under a 6% chance (21/365.25).....the chance getting a bit smaller as you work your way backwards.

 

Similarly, with 70 people, the odds for the last person are about 19% + nearly 19% for the second last etc.

 

And those individual chances are all additional. Does that make sense? Well, it made sense to me! 

[Stadt]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Straightforward in isolation, but attempting the two in tandem would be tough to coordinate - and you'd probably lose your job as a barman.

Salted Protein IPA on tap 

[Alf Bentley]

Just now, Stadt said:

Salted Protein IPA on tap 

 

Your sick mind disgusts me almost as much as my own! 

[fuchsntf]

On 28/11/2020 at 21:27, Wymsey said:

People who clean their teeth right before breakfast.

But its a long walk from bathroom to Breakfast table.....when you Live in a chateaux

[yorkie1999]

Pubs in wales banning the sale of alcohol yet everyone's been washing their hands with the stuff for the last 9 months.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Pubs in wales banning the sale of alcohol yet everyone's been washing their hands with the stuff for the last 9 months.

 

There could be a market opportunity there, selling handwash to Welsh alcoholics.....

[Flamey]

On 15/11/2020 at 11:20, TiffToff88 said:

So in theory, one of the next 22 people to see my post will share the same birthday as me? (18th of March)

I'm 20th March, brother is 18th.....but not on Foxestalk.....close but no cigar😟

[Buce]

 

@fuchsntf's posts.

 

It's like this legend of a man picked up a smattering of words everywhere he went on his travels, then haphazardly bolted them on to some curious New Parks- German hybrid.

 

The result is astonishing, almost Tolkeinesque...

[Buce]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There could be a market opportunity there, selling handwash to Welsh alcoholics.....

 

I imagine the French may have a few left to sell...

 

Am I allowed to say that?

[fuchsntf]

28 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

@fuchsntf's posts.

 

It's like this legend of a man picked up a smattering of words everywhere he went on his travels, then haphazardly bolted them on to some curious New Parks- German hybrid.

 

The result is astonishing, almost Tolkeinesque...

Just Bloody jealous....!!!    

And I always Presumed I was Posting on Foxestolk.... a football Loving middle-earth platform...

 

Seems I have taken up Bad hobbits...

Edited 30 November 2020 by fuchsntf

[fuchsntf]

On 15/11/2020 at 16:14, Wymsey said:

How foxestalkisfullofidiots got their member name approved..

No its the the self presumptiousintellectuals that baffle me..!!

This forum by default is recognised as THE....honourablefullofidiotsfoxestalk forum..

[Jattdogg]

12 hours ago, Buce said:

 

@fuchsntf's posts.

 

It's like this legend of a man picked up a smattering of words everywhere he went on his travels, then haphazardly bolted them on to some curious New Parks- German hybrid.

 

The result is astonishing, almost Tolkeinesque...

 

One poster i'd like to meet with in person. I bet the conversations would be epic

[Captain...]

People who leave bags of dog poo hanging on a fence, or tree, you've done the unpleasant bit in picking it up with the bag, now just put it in a bin.