US Presidential Election 2020

[Milo]

8 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

 

the younger you go the less red america is. 20 years on and all of a sudden you start to see the American political paradigm shift. The GOP must essentially adapt or eventually die. 

Here's hoping.

 

Although most of the rioters last week looked to be in their 30's and 40's. 

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, Milo said:

Here's hoping.

 

Although most of the rioters last week looked to be in their 30's and 40's. 

The GoP will evolve I'm sure, it has to to survive.  Hopefully that doesn't mean the Christian Right becoming too powerful again.

[Carl the Llama]

18 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

 

the younger you go the less red america is. 20 years on and all of a sudden you start to see the American political paradigm shift. The GOP must essentially adapt or eventually die. 

That's a somewhat naive take, youth have been polling more left-leaning than their elders forever, the problems start when people get older and become gradually more likely to vote out of self-interest/for a status-quo instead of for social benefit. 

[RoboFox]

22 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

 

the younger you go the less red america is. 20 years on and all of a sudden you start to see the American political paradigm shift. The GOP must essentially adapt or eventually die. 

I'd imagine it's much the same situation over here, although probably not as extensive.

 

Hardcore Tory voters are getting much older. Millennials and GenZ have far more liberal attitudes. In 20 years' time the political landscape could be very different.

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, RoboFox said:

I'd imagine it's much the same situation over here, although probably not as extensive.

 

Hardcore Tory voters are getting much older. Millennials and GenZ have far more liberal attitudes. In 20 years' time the political landscape could be very different.

Parties evolve though, who would have thought the Tories would have been the party to legalise gay marriage among other things?

[Dahnsouff]

1 minute ago, RoboFox said:

I'd imagine it's much the same situation over here, although probably not as extensive.

 

Hardcore Tory voters are getting much older. Millennials and GenZ have far more liberal attitudes. In 20 years' time the political landscape could be very different.

Really? Voters principles change as they age I would suggest, and not stay set throughout their lifetime I imagine 

[Fightforever]

27 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Really? Voters principles change as they age I would suggest, and not stay set throughout their lifetime I imagine 

So does the political paradigm. Modern day right wingers wouldn't be seen as such 50 years ago. 

[leicsmac]

35 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Parties evolve though, who would have thought the Tories would have been the party to legalise gay marriage among other things?

 

33 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Really? Voters principles change as they age I would suggest, and not stay set throughout their lifetime I imagine 

 

5 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

So does the political paradigm. Modern day right wingers wouldn't be seen as such 50 years ago. 

Yep, evolution of thoughts and ideals is certainly a thing, and thankfully, the general shift seems to be towards more social progress in a lot of places.

 

However, this whole sorry mess in the US over the last few years has shown how easily such progress might be subverted and even regressed, and that it shouldn't be taken for granted.

Edited 13 January 2021 by leicsmac

[ozleicester]

Reagan and Thatcher are the reason we are where we are.

Decimated the working classes, took their jobs then blamed them for being unemployed.

40 years later they wonder why we have generational unemployment and a society where the rich sneer at the poor instead of helping them.

[Benguin]

35 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Really? Voters principles change as they age I would suggest, and not stay set throughout their lifetime I imagine 

Agreed my voting history is: Green Party, Labour, conservative. My political views now are a world apart from my teens/early twenties. That said I’m deeply unhappy with the Conservative party at the moment and would probably be forced to spoil my ballot if there was an election anytime soon. 

[Fightforever]

21 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

Reagan and Thatcher are the reason we are where we are.

Decimated the working classes, took their jobs then blamed them for being unemployed.

40 years later they wonder why we have generational unemployment and a society where the rich sneer at the poor instead of helping them.

It is more complicated than this you can't just point the finger at someone and say that everything is their fault the world doesn't work like that. They were left behind by globalization their jobs weren't relevant anymore. The UK had to make the transition from more or less bleeding the colonies dry to fund their economy in a preferential trading system that gave those workers job making goods out of their basically free resources to a modern day European nation state and some people were left behind. Call it the evils of capitalism if you will but It was inevitable.

[Fightforever]

29 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

 

Yep, evolution of thoughts and ideals is certainly a thing, and thankfully, the general shift seems to be towards more social progress in a lot of places.

 

However, this whole sorry mess in the US over the last few years has shown how easily such progress might be subverted and even regressed, and that it shouldn't be taken for granted.

The reason I think the cultural problems will mainly fall away with age is due to the fact young people are ditching religion on mass and most of the conflict arises between christian republican values and social justice. But young people are becoming less religious.

[RoboFox]

10 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

The reason I think the cultural problems will mainly fall away with age is due to the fact young people are ditching religion on mass and most of the conflict arises between christian republican values and social justice. But young people are becoming less religious.

 

 

Education is also a factor. Globally, more people now have access to higher education, and sadly there's a strong correlation between non-college / university graduates and a tendency to gravitate towards conservative politics, and visa-versa. 

 

Counties with populations made up of more than 20% college graduates saw Biden make an average gain of 3.4 percentage points on Hillary Clinton’s vote compared with just 0.5 points elsewhere. In Forsyth county in Georgia, where 52% of the electorate holds a degree, the vote for the Democratic party increased by nine points.

In contrast, Trump secured gains of 2.5 points in counties where more than 70% of the population were white, non-college graduates. Willacy county in Texas, for example, where 86% of voters are whites who did not graduate from college, saw a 13-point increase in support for Trump. This trend is not just to do with Trump. Since 2000, the Republican party has seen its support increase most in those counties with more white, non-college voters.

 

On the left, the states with the highest % of population with an advanced degree, on the right, the lowest.

 

[leicsmac]

57 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

The reason I think the cultural problems will mainly fall away with age is due to the fact young people are ditching religion on mass and most of the conflict arises between christian republican values and social justice. But young people are becoming less religious.

I've no reason to doubt those figures and they clearly correlate with social progress being shown in many places.

 

However, to add to my previous point, I don't think that it would take much in the way of difficult economic or environmental times for things to regress socially too.

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Guest SO1]

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/just-because-the-system-is-stacked

Something positive. Because we all need it.

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Fightforever said:

It is more complicated than this you can't just point the finger at someone and say that everything is their fault the world doesn't work like that. They were left behind by globalization their jobs weren't relevant anymore. The UK had to make the transition from more or less bleeding the colonies dry to fund their economy in a preferential trading system that gave those workers job making goods out of their basically free resources to a modern day European nation state and some people were left behind. Call it the evils of capitalism if you will but It was inevitable.

Yeah but Thatcher bad!!  Booo!

[Fightforever]

19 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yeah but Thatcher bad!!  Booo!

I know it makes little sense and I hate this in life. Where people don't look at the root cause of problems and just find someone they never liked anyway to point the finger at instead.

 

She did the dirty work and got the blame. She should have done more to retrain those communites after they lost their jobs. But it was a job that needed doing by someone. Besides in a modern service based economy when your only skill is in an unsustainable form of labour you will eventually lose your job. Problem with the UK is we need more major cities in the north . Our economy is centered around London and the southeast the futher away from London and the southeast you get essentially the less consideration you get. 

Edited 13 January 2021 by Fightforever

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, Fightforever said:

Hate this in life. Where people don't look at the root cause of problems and just find someone they didn't like of to point the finger at instead.

 

She did the dirty work and got the blame. She should have done more to retrain those communites after they lost their jobs. But it was a job that needed doing by someone. Besides in a modern service based economy when your only skill is in an unsustainable form of labour you will eventually lose your job. Problem with the UK is we need more major cities in the north . Our economy is centered around London and the southeast the futher away from London and the southeast you get essentially the less consideration you get. 

I think Jon might have been indulging in humour...

[Fightforever]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I think Jon might have been indulging in humour...

Yeah I just wanted to expand on my point anyway. 

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

So it's expected he will be impeached in the first round, same as he was last time. What are the chances of it fully going through and him being actually thrown out? (even though I understand his term will already be over) 

[Dahnsouff]

So, he gets impeached, which seems likely, does this mean that Mike Pence will be forced to  invoke the 25th amendment?

[Carl the Llama]

18 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

So it's expected he will be impeached in the first round, same as he was last time. What are the chances of it fully going through and him being actually thrown out? (even though I understand his term will already be over) 

I've got the house debate on in the background and I think the broadcaster said once the vote passes it goes to the senate who aren't expected to sit until Tuesday (day before inauguration) and it will be more than a one day process so by the time anything comes of it he'll already be out of office.  But it will mean he can't run again, doesn't get a govt pension, loses secret service support among other things.

Edited 13 January 2021 by Carl the Llama
link

[Alf Bentley]

American/expert posters may have more detailed info, but as I understand it.....

 

25th Amendment & Impeachment are 2 totally different processes, so impeachment wouldn't force Pence to invoke 25th

- 25th Amendment is to declare President unfit for office (by VP and half the cabinet)

- Impeachment would put Trump on trial by the Senate for misconduct. If found guilty while still in office, he'd be turfed out; if it was after his term had ended, he'd be disqualified from any future office for life

 

Impeachment will doubtless pass the House of Representatives (Dem majority), but requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which is currently 53-47 Republican (and still only 50-50 after the new Senate takes over).

 

At least a couple of Republican Senators (including ex-VP Cheney's daughter) have said they'll vote to impeach......but it would still presumably require about another 15+ Republican Senators to find him guilty?

All seems to come down to Republican Party politics.....do a sufficient number want to take the risk of severing the connection with Trump, when he's still so popular among GOP voters?

 

I'm assuming that the chance of him being found guilty by the Senate is higher than last time, but still unlikely......but I might be wrong about that......any further clarification, Americans/experts?! 

[Dunge]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

American/expert posters may have more detailed info, but as I understand it.....

 

25th Amendment & Impeachment are 2 totally different processes, so impeachment wouldn't force Pence to invoke 25th

- 25th Amendment is to declare President unfit for office (by VP and half the cabinet)

- Impeachment would put Trump on trial by the Senate for misconduct. If found guilty while still in office, he'd be turfed out; if it was after his term had ended, he'd be disqualified from any future office for life

 

Impeachment will doubtless pass the House of Representatives (Dem majority), but requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which is currently 53-47 Republican (and still only 50-50 after the new Senate takes over).

 

At least a couple of Republican Senators (including ex-VP Cheney's daughter) have said they'll vote to impeach......but it would still presumably require about another 15+ Republican Senators to find him guilty?

All seems to come down to Republican Party politics.....do a sufficient number want to take the risk of severing the connection with Trump, when he's still so popular among GOP voters?

 

I'm assuming that the chance of him being found guilty by the Senate is higher than last time, but still unlikely......but I might be wrong about that......any further clarification, Americans/experts?! 

I’m kind of hoping that this is a moment where a significant proportion of Republican senators decide to vote for their own ambition and impeach. After all, it should be obvious to any ambitious GOP (relative) youngster that their chances of becoming president themselves now rely on the party giving Trump the old heave-ho and changing around their entire narrative. Particularly considering a section of Trump’s supporters are now calling for his own vice-president to be lynched for absolutely nothing. After all, cosying up to him won’t work for them; he’s only interested in prospects for himself and maybe his kids. Anyone else can be thrown to the wolves at any moment.