US Presidential Election 2020

[Finnegan]

3 minutes ago, shen said:

Can't say my brain is functioning well enough at this hour to understand the explanation. I'm assuming it's "unquestionable" since AP claim not to call a state until it's a done deal. With less than 100k in it and around 500k votes still to be counted, surely it's still within the realm of possibility that it flips... ?

 

I've got no idea, I just trust AP. 

[Finnegan]

Although if you don't want to take AP's judgment, Sky Bet will currently give you 1/10 on Joe Biden. 

[weller54]

41 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Looks like Mama Fratelli from The Goonies!

Debra Meadon from Dragon's Den 😂

[dsr-burnley]

24 minutes ago, shen said:

Can't say my brain is functioning well enough at this hour to understand the explanation. I'm assuming it's "unquestionable" since AP claim not to call a state until it's a done deal. With less than 100k in it and around 500k votes still to be counted, surely it's still within the realm of possibility that it flips... ?

AP know where those votes come from - ie. which bit of the state, and whether they're postal or not - and are confident enough that they will be break even or a Biden majority within those votes, that they proclaim the state victory.  They're almost certainly right because Biden has been winning postal votes all night, everywhere.

 

On the other hand, they did call Florida for Gore in 2000, and Bush conceded the election.  Then they withdrew the Florida call, Bush withdrew his concession (which has no legal meaning anyway), and a month later it was all decided!

[twister]

friend works in betting markets said they are shocked today

 

at 3 this morning they had trump a cert, then something weird happen it all flipped in a hour with money going on biden out of nowhere.Lot of them said it made zero sense ohio going red not michigan after a clear early lead.

 

Anyway trump is out so its biden now for four years, lets see how it unravels.

[shen]

3 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

AP know where those votes come from - ie. which bit of the state, and whether they're postal or not - and are confident enough that they will be break even or a Biden majority within those votes, that they proclaim the state victory.  They're almost certainly right because Biden has been winning postal votes all night, everywhere.

 

On the other hand, they did call Florida for Gore in 2000, and Bush conceded the election.  Then they withdrew the Florida call, Bush withdrew his concession (which has no legal meaning anyway), and a month later it was all decided!

Exactly the 2000 situation makes me believe that no credible press would call a state until it really is decided...

[twister]

15 minutes ago, shen said:

Exactly the 2000 situation makes me believe that no credible press would call a state until it really is decided...

this election has been turned on its head by mail in votes

 

I could see this ending up in court.

[shen]

2 minutes ago, twister said:

this election has been turned on its head by mail in votes

 

I could see this ending up in court.

Which was rather expected really. And we knew Trump wouldn't bow out meekly and quietly if results turned out in Biden's favour.

[twister]

2 minutes ago, shen said:

Which was rather expected really. And we knew Trump wouldn't bow out meekly and quietly if results turned out in Biden's favour.

it was a stunning turnaround by biden to be fair, as ive said after 90 percent plus of the districts called in swing states,  he was well down in some states trump looked like he winning, he has cleaned house on the mail in voting and flipped nearly all of them at the deatj.

 

people voting from their couches decided the american election.

[leicsmac]

 

Of course, it isn't over yet.

[shen]

Just now, twister said:

it was a stunning turnaround by biden to be fair, as ive said after 90 percent plus of the districts called in swing states,  he was well down in some states trump looked like he winning, he has cleaned house on the mail in voting and flipped nearly all of them at the deatj.

 

people voting from their couches decided the american election.

But that mail in voters were primarily Dem votes, will not have been surprising given that the high numbers received was known. Frankly, you'd expect more Dem voters to actually heed the pandemic and vote from the safety of their homes.

[Leeds Fox]

15 minutes ago, twister said:

this election has been turned on its head by mail in votes

 

I could see this ending up in court.

I could be well off here, but... 

 

Wouldn’t that make sense, taking into account Trumps blasé approach to the pandemic, with his support following his lead and heading out to the polling stations. While Bidens support following the guidelines of almost every other western nation and not going out and about unnecessarily and using the postal vote. Obviously there will be supporters of both who use each voting method, but it seems like one of those situations that looks completely random, but delving deeper it actually makes a fair bit of sense. 

[UPinCarolina]

4 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

Would agree, Latino’s would have voted against Bernie to a man/woman that’s for sure.

Maybe some Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida but they already vote Republican so it's not like you're shrinking the voter pool by nominating him. In addition, Trump called Biden - a centrist Democrat, not a leftist - a 'socialist' and his supporters call him a 'communist' - so what would the difference there have been?

Bernie also had something Biden never had, and still doesn't - an energetic ground game and a clear message that goes beyond "I'm not Trump"

[UPinCarolina]

1 hour ago, shen said:

Trump is 300k ahead in PA and there are just about 680k or so to be counted. Going to need a massive swing!
Could Nevada be the king maker?

I would bet those ballots - mail-in, I assume - go 65/35 or 60/40 Democrat. That wins PA for Biden. There's a reason that the Republicans are trying to go after Philadelphia - they know this too, and want to get those votes thrown out.

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Scotch]

14 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

I could be well off here, but... 

 

Wouldn’t that make sense, taking into account Trumps blasé approach to the pandemic, with his support following his lead and heading out to the polling stations. While Bidens support following the guidelines of almost every other western nation and not going out and about unnecessarily and using the postal vote. Obviously there will be supporters of both who use each voting method, but it seems like one of those situations that looks completely random, but delving deeper it actually makes a fair bit of sense. 

Makes perfect sense since Trump is saying things like "85% of people who wear masks get covid" and "people who have had it and children are immune"...

[leicsmac]

It's like someone said yesterday: it's in the courts hands now, they can either accept the votes as valid and give Biden the win (most likely), or they can invalidate them and also invalidate one of the key tenets the US is supposed to stand for for the last two and a half centuries.

[shen]

11 minutes ago, UPinCarolina said:

I would bet those ballots - mail-in, I assume - go 65/35 or 60/40 Democrat. That wins PA for Biden. There's a reason that the Republicans are trying to go after Philadelphia - they know this too, and want to get those votes thrown out.

As it stands, Biden needs (by my calculations) at least 63-64% of the remaining votes in PA to pip it. He's 208k behind with about 820-850k votes left to count. It will be a nailbiter... then again maybe not as Trump realistically needs to win GA, NC, PA --- AND NV, which does not seem likely anymore.

[UPinCarolina]

The Democratic Party, frankly, is too stupid to 'steal' an election and get away with it - particularly when it was obvious (so obvious that even I predicted it) what the Republican strategy would be in this election.
 

The Republicans were always going to take it to the courts, cast doubt on the veracity of mail-in or absentee ballots (but only in states where they're in danger of losing - says a lot that they went immediately to PA this afternoon as things got tighter, for example) and try and muddy the waters as much as possible, even if legitimate votes were cast out in the process.

I'd like to believe that they were at least smart enough to realize that they cannot continue to make any superfluous claim of moral superiority - and would absolutely self-own themselves - if they tried and were caught. Therefore, it's my belief that they did not try in any concerted way.

[theessexfox]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

 

Of course, it isn't over yet.

I managed to get Biden at 16/5 at around 3am, didn’t put very much on though 

[Stadt]

51 minutes ago, UPinCarolina said:

The Democratic Party, frankly, is too stupid to 'steal' an election and get away with it - particularly when it was obvious (so obvious that even I predicted it) what the Republican strategy would be in this election.
 

The Republicans were always going to take it to the courts, cast doubt on the veracity of mail-in or absentee ballots (but only in states where they're in danger of losing - says a lot that they went immediately to PA this afternoon as things got tighter, for example) and try and muddy the waters as much as possible, even if legitimate votes were cast out in the process.

I'd like to believe that they were at least smart enough to realize that they cannot continue to make any superfluous claim of moral superiority - and would absolutely self-own themselves - if they tried and were caught. Therefore, it's my belief that they did not try in any concerted way.

If there was any foul play it’d be lower level administrators rather than a top down directive. We’ve seen years of never Trumpers convincing themselves he’s literally Hitler so it wouldn’t be too surprising if an overly partisan Dem interfered. The same applies to Republicans too but mail ins are more open to subversion  

[ozleicester]

It is a better world today than it was yesterday, and it will be a better world tomorrrow

[Finnegan]

6 hours ago, Leeds Fox said:

I could be well off here, but... 

 

Wouldn’t that make sense, taking into account Trumps blasé approach to the pandemic, with his support following his lead and heading out to the polling stations. While Bidens support following the guidelines of almost every other western nation and not going out and about unnecessarily and using the postal vote. Obviously there will be supporters of both who use each voting method, but it seems like one of those situations that looks completely random, but delving deeper it actually makes a fair bit of sense. 

 

Biden actively told his people to vote by post, Trump actively told his people not to then planned to target postal votes. 

 

As with most things, he actively created the controversy as an attempt to cheat and manipulate. 

 

There isn't actually anything controversial or corrupt about postal voting, its happened all over the world completely legitimately forever. The only problem with it in this election is the republicans systematically targeting it as a way of trying to get rid of as many Democrat votes as they possibly can because they knew there were a lot of reactionary anti Trump votes coming. 

 

Lo and behold, Biden is the most voted for US presidential candidate in history. 

[StanSP]

I don't know when this is from but this is hilarious. When he goes dead silent

 

 

[Finnegan]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I don't know when this is from but this is hilarious. When he goes dead silent

 

 

 

Slowblink