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Alan Frost

A Serious Point

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6 hours ago, Free Falling Foxes said:

I jokingly asked in a recent match thread if anyone goes toilet or puts the kettle on when we get a corner. Well, I actually did go and do the latter during the Newcastle match.

It seems an absolute age since we scored a goal from a corner.

Is it that long ago?

I normally go for a dump when I am watching West Bromwich and since Big Sam took over have missed seeing over 10 goals.

Edited by mozartfox
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19 minutes ago, Guest said:

I think I'm right in saying that about 3% of corners result in a goal. You reckon we should be scoring from 50% of ours?

I goal every two games isn’t scoring from 50% of our corners.

We average around 6 corners per game, scoring from 50% of them would see us scoring 3 goals per game.

If your 3% of corners are scored from is correct, we should on average score roughly 7 or 8 goals per season from corners. 

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Just now, Aus Fox said:

I goal every two games isn’t scoring from 50% of our corners.

We average around 6 corners per game, scoring from 50% of them would see us scoring 3 goals per game.

If your 3% of corners are scored from is correct, we should on average score roughly 7 or 8 goals per season from corners. 

Haha yeah I've had an absolute shocker there.

 

I don't at all disagree with the overall sentiment that we should be making far greater use of our set-pieces. Evans in particular has a proper 50p head and I remember Soyuncu missing a fair few presentable chances last season. I do think however that, however shit at them we might be, it's also one of those things that basically every fan thinks their team is the worst at by miles

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4 hours ago, Stadt said:

Can’t be arsed to go on my laptop and dig out the stats properly but I reckon Premier League central defenders average 2 goals season.

 

Having checked - 

 

Last season (PL only), Van Dijk got 5 goals. Adam Webster and Issa Diop got 3 each. Everyone else 2 or fewer. The average is probably less than 2 a season.

 

1 hour ago, Corky said:

I think we've still got a romantic notion of Elliott, Walsh, Taggart all going forward and getting their share of goals from corners but we aren't as bothered about set-pieces now. 

 

Of the current crop, I'd say Morgan is the most likely/ comfortable in front of goal. He was good for a few goals per season.

 

4 hours ago, Stadt said:

Can’t be arsed to go on my laptop and dig out the stats properly but I reckon Premier League central defenders average 2 goals season.

 

Having checked - 

 

Last season (PL only), Van Dijk got 5 goals. Adam Webster and Issa Diop got 3 each. Everyone else 2 or fewer. The average is probably less than 2 a season.

Thanks Stadt.I'm glad I remembered your name as the guy who posted the links. Thats less than I would have expected but with a few volleys from knockdown second balls maybe and maybe a few extra from  set piece improvement maybe we could expect maybe 6 a season maybe more. We have n't got a van Dijk but Soyuncu maybe could knock in four in a good year, and maybe Fofana 3/4 plus say one from Evans ,he probably knows a lot about heading technique by now any way so he's unlikely to learn how to put that up much.. If that happened 7 goals woukl translate to half a Mahrez , maybe 3 extra wins . Thats nine points a season almost 4 and half points by now. Like I say its congested this year and 4 points would put us top, even a drawn game clesr. With another 4 points to come by the end of the season and all for the cost of a bit of coaching and time you'd be hard pushed to gain that any more cheaply or quickly. I noticed all those stats had a glossary so I might get to understand them in time.

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46 minutes ago, Guest said:

Haha yeah I've had an absolute shocker there.

 

I don't at all disagree with the overall sentiment that we should be making far greater use of our set-pieces. Evans in particular has a proper 50p head and I remember Soyuncu missing a fair few presentable chances last season. I do think however that, however shit at them we might be, it's also one of those things that basically every fan thinks their team is the worst at by miles

....I believe Radio Leicester timed the last one to be 242 corners before we scored!!!

If that is true, and there is no reason why it would be made up, even if we tried not to score, we really could not do much worse.

  If we work on the 3% scenario, it could be something like 10 points more in a season.

 

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2 hours ago, Corky said:

I think we've still got a romantic notion of Elliott, Walsh, Taggart all going forward and getting their share of goals from corners but we aren't as bothered about set-pieces now. 

 

Of the current crop, I'd say Morgan is the most likely/ comfortable in front of goal. He was good for a few goals per season.

Well he probably played under Cloughie and learned a lot. I'm not sure about that i'd have to check the datesbut Cloughie knew a bit about heading although he didn't like to see it outside the box."If God had meant you to play up there lad, he'd have put grass up there."

I've got a great admiration for Wes but I do seem to remember he got us a few late headed goals that meant one nil wins. A single goal can be worth two or three points. Van Dijk's goals a season,  riches beyond compare. He's worth nearly half a Mahrez in goals plus the rest of his attributes as a bonus.

Edited by Alan Frost
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28 minutes ago, Alan Frost said:

Well he probably played under Cloughie and learned a lot. I'm not sure about that i'd have to check the datesbut Cloughie knew a bit about heading although he didn't like to see it outside the box."If God had meant you to play up there lad, he'd have put grass up there."

I've got a great admiration for Wes but I do seem to remember he got us a few late headed goals that meant one nil wins. A single goal can be worth two or three points. Van Dijk's goals a season,  riches beyond compare. He's worth nearly half a Mahrez in goals plus the rest of his attributes as a bonus.

No, Clough left Forest in 93 when Wes was 9.  

 

I remember reading that the young Wes was highly regarded but they had to hide him from manager Paul Hart because he was so overweight.  Hart happened across a rather porky Wes in the car park and told his youth team coach that he would be sacked if he ever saw him in a Forest kit.

 

 

Edited by murphy
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Just looked up Shearer' s stats. 48 goals out of 200 + a few  from headers (Newcastle figures). Not all corners and set pieces of course. But I bet there were a few more than half the headers. Maybe Brendan could bring him in for training one day, give the lads a change.Sort of thing Claudio got up too and Shearer's always glad of of a bob or two.  I think he'd be horrified at our stats. Course we'd have to kill him afterwards , don't want him blabbing.and Brendan would have to underline that we don't want man and ball in the net with VAR looking. Alan S would have considered a goal a failure if the ref's watch showed the man wasn't completely over the line. Bugger the ball.  I'll try and find Dennis Law's figures altho stats from that era are a bit minimal.

Stop press Shearers Newcastle figures 46 headed out of 206 for Newcastle. Can't find any stats for Denis Law but watched a best goals compilation on YouTube 3 headers out of eight .as for Shearer they were n't all corners and set pieces of course but then heading coaching if you can get it past Elfin safety would pay off in other ways. 

Edited by Alan Frost
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9 hours ago, Alan Frost said:

Seems to me Denis Law scored a header against us every time we played 'em, A guy half that good would be a hell of an improvement. Old guys used to tell me Dixie Dean was even better. Nat Lofthouse was n't too dusty either. I'm only asking initially that we start threatening from corners, as a start. We can work up to 1 a match later.

Literally no team in the world scores a goal from a corner every match or every 2 matches. Teams that score from them regularly are teams that find it difficult to score from open play, like Burnley. Teams lower down the table will work on set plays much more as it can be their only chance of scoring in a game. Our corners have been poor for a while, both the taking of them and the attacking of them and whilst it is an area we could work on, we are currently 3rd in the league so it's not a major issue.

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9 minutes ago, jayfox26 said:

Literally no team in the world scores a goal from a corner every match or every 2 matches. Teams that score from them regularly are teams that find it difficult to score from open play, like Burnley. Teams lower down the table will work on set plays much more as it can be their only chance of scoring in a game. Our corners have been poor for a while, both the taking of them and the attacking of them and whilst it is an area we could work on, we are currently 3rd in the league so it's not a major issue.

The working up to 1 a match later was n't serious altho if we ever find a talent who can do it........ he'd be worth a bob or two..If we finish 3rd instead of top due to lacking a win or two which 4-5 goals would almost certainly mean then that is a major issue surely. These are extra potential goals , I'm not suggesting we decline open play goals, There's not much of that going on when we defend or take a corner, even looking like threatening a goal once in a while from a corner we all seem agreed would be a starting point towards improvement. Don't get me wrong 3rd is excellent and I think things look likely to get even better given a bit of luck but I'm 77, with covid roaming about I'd like to see our next title sooner rather than later, although I will be looking down and smiling. Last one made me feel 47 for a year or two. Say nothing to the vaccinators I'm trying to pass for 80.

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1 hour ago, sacreblueits442 said:

....I believe Radio Leicester timed the last one to be 242 corners before we scored!!!

If that is true, and there is no reason why it would be made up, even if we tried not to score, we really could not do much worse.

  If we work on the 3% scenario, it could be something like 10 points more in a season.

 

We are currently on 188 corners without a goal (80 this season) since the last goal from a corner in the 1-1 draw with Norwich. Funny thing is, that was an OG. 

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17 hours ago, Alan Frost said:

I reckon a team with Fofana, Evans and Cags in it should be picking up at least a goal every 2 matches minimum from corners.

You've massively undermined your argument with hyperbole like this. Unless you meant it in some weird figurative sense? 

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Corners as goal scoring opportunities are completely overvalued by football fans.

 

To view them as good goal scoring opportunities that we're simply not taking just doesn't stand up to the data. 

 

 

The key stats:

  • Only 3% of corners indirectly lead to a goal
  • 40% don't clear the first man
  • Only 16% result in an attempt on goal
  • Only 7% result in an on target attempt on goal
  • Only 1% directly lead to a goal

We've had 89 corners so far this season in the PL and scored (I think) 0 goals. So using the above stats we'd expect:

  • 2.67 goals indirectly from corners
  • 35.6 to have failed to clear the first man
  • 14.24 resulting in attempts on goal
  • 6.23 on target attempts
  • 0.89 goals scored 

So it seems we're 'on par'

 

I'm not making a comment either way if we're good or bad at set pieces offensively or defensively - I'd have to look at the data and compare it with the rest of the league to benchmark us. But I think it goes to show that we're not particularly worse than any other teams offensively speaking.  

 

Corner kicks are actually bad opportunities to create chances and score goals - so we aren't missing out on gilt-edged chances every week. 

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I put this in a separate thread and it is a completely useless piece of information as I have no comparison to other teams, but the last corner in the Newcastle game was the 200th since we last scored from a corner in the PL (Evans v Villa), 

 

I think Fofana's header in the first half is the closest I've seen us come to scoring from a corner in ages. 

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Maddison’s delivery from set pieces has been woeful this season. Definitely some improvement against Newcastle, but the amount of times he goes for a floating corner that goes past the heads of any Leicester (or opposition players for that matter!) is a joke.

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Unfortunately, Soyuncu, Evans and now Fofana seem to have heads like 50p.

 

You never know what angle it is going to come off.

 

To be fair we seem to be making up for the lack of goals from corners with penalties.

 

We have scored 8 at least 10 teams have only scored 2.

 

Don't care where we score from, unless they change the rules and corner goals are worth 2.

Edited by coolhandfox
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Listen, you have a point that we aren't scoring enough corners. But I don't think it's anywhere near as extreme as you make out. Scoring from corners in the modern game is much, much harder. Expectations should be lowered. Not as low as what we have now, but not far off in the distance. If we get more than 10 in a season that's very impressive.

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48 minutes ago, Nicolo Barella said:

Listen, you have a point that we aren't scoring enough corners. But I don't think it's anywhere near as extreme as you make out. Scoring from corners in the modern game is much, much harder. Expectations should be lowered. Not as low as what we have now, but not far off in the distance. If we get more than 10 in a season that's very impressive.

I can't argue with statistics . Being an oldie I watched most of my live football (as opposed to TV or video) back in the day when the stats tell us more goals were scored from corners,although never as many as i mistakenly remembered. Back to the drawing board. Maybe however practice and coaching attacking headers might increase goals from crosses and set pieces but before claiming that I'd better under stand and look at the statistics sources Forum member Stadt recently listed. Maybe its just as well I live too far away to watch LCFC live except once in a blue moon when I'd probably have been even more critical of our performance at defending and particularly attacking corners. Our corners are rarely shown in highlights videos for good reason although Madders deliveries seem to be much improved and struck me as excellent at Newcastle.

Maybe the only useful contribution I made was to suggest getting Shearer or even Emile Heskey, who I presume is still around, to a training morning as a sort of Claudio style relaxer to get their take on heading. Mind you as I said they'd have to update their technique to allow for VAR as man and ball into the net would have to be dropped these days. Mind you even a few of Shearer.'s 46 goals from headers (out of 206 total) for Newcastle would be very welcome in the second half of our season.I think we need something to give us an edge to get us up from a likely top four finish (?) to 1st. I'll keep looking.we'd be kicking ourselve if one more goal, worth maybe two points , would have been enough in what looks like its going to be a close finish.

 

Edited by Alan Frost
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