Bournemouth (A)..pre match thread.

[pedmcl]

2 minutes ago, filbertway said:

I think a few people are in for a shock after getting carried away with us beating a very poor and disorganised team with a deflection and 3 worldies.

Sound like you want us to lose...

[pedmcl]

Reckon we'll win 3-1. Barnes and Maddison running riot again. 

[filbertway]

1 minute ago, pedmcl said:

Sound like you want us to lose...

It wouldn't surprise me if we did. We can't defend and we're still relying on Maddison defying the laws of probability.

[pedmcl]

Just now, filbertway said:

It wouldn't surprise me if we did. We can't defend and we're still relying on Maddison defying the laws of probability.

Sometimes you need a slightly fortunate clean sheet and a few moments of quality in a victory to be the catalyst for greater consistency. Fingers crossed Monday was putting the building blocks in place for regaining a bit of form. 

 

I can't see us losing this one after the bounce we've gained from the Forest game. 

[filbertway]

1 minute ago, pedmcl said:

Sometimes you need a slightly fortunate clean sheet and a few moments of quality in a victory to be the catalyst for greater consistency. Fingers crossed Monday was putting the building blocks in place for regaining a bit of form. 

 

I can't see us losing this one after the bounce we've gained from the Forest game. 

I would assume you fall into the category I was talking about then  

 

We really need 3 points against these as they're championship fodder, they will be a damn site harder to play against than Forest were though.

 

Palace H

Leeds H

Wolves A

 

I wouldn't fancy us to pick up more than 4 points from those how we're playing, so Bournemouth is really an important one to stop us from having a mountain to climb.

[FoxyJim1987]

6 hours ago, Reg Vardy said:

Would imagine Vardy was taken off on Monday with a view to starting on Saturday…..been a bit of a bogey ground of late, shouldn’t be difficult to get the team fired up after Monday….

I think he got taken off cos he was ineffective, myself

[FoxyJim1987]

9 minutes ago, filbertway said:

It wouldn't surprise me if we did. We can't defend and we're still relying on Maddison defying the laws of probability.

Plenty of teams in the league rely on one player to provide a spark. Palace with Zaha, Fulham with Mitrovic, Brentford with Toney, we are a bit like this with Maddison, but if Barnes can get his mojo back and Vardy can grab a goal or two and go on a run we can start winning again. The estate of our defence means we just should aim to put score teams. Go at teams like mad like we did with forest and most teams won't be able to handle it.

[SixtiesFox]

A win here and we are on the way to mid-table security before the WC. Failure to capitalize on the momentum created by Monday's result and performance would be extremely damaging. As we saw against Forest, we are different class to our 'relegation' rivals. No amount of Rodgers' excuses will compensate for a failure to win on Saturday!. 

[smr]

absolutely the same team has to start.

[PhillippaT]

So, are we still doomed, or is there a new hope?  

[filbertway]

7 minutes ago, FoxyJim1987 said:

Plenty of teams in the league rely on one player to provide a spark. Palace with Zaha, Fulham with Mitrovic, Brentford with Toney, we are a bit like this with Maddison, but if Barnes can get his mojo back and Vardy can grab a goal or two and go on a run we can start winning again. The estate of our defence means we just should aim to put score teams. Go at teams like mad like we did with forest and most teams won't be able to handle it.

Maddison - xG 1.31 - 5 goals

Zaha - xG 3.08 - 4

Toney - xG 4.44 - 5 goals

Mitrovic - xG 4.53 - 6 goals

 

All 4 exceeding their statistical probabilities, but there's a clear outlier in overperformance.

 

We didn't really go at Forest a great deal, they were simply very unorganised. We'll face a tigher unit in Bournemouth and you'll see us revert back to "controlling" the game.

 

[pedmcl]

1 minute ago, filbertway said:

We didn't really go at Forest a great deal

[whoareyaaa]

5 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Maddison - xG 1.31 - 5 goals

Zaha - xG 3.08 - 4

Toney - xG 4.44 - 5 goals

Mitrovic - xG 4.53 - 6 goals

 

All 4 exceeding their statistical probabilities, but there's a clear outlier in overperformance.

 

We didn't really go at Forest a great deal, they were simply very unorganised. We'll face a tigher unit in Bournemouth and you'll see us revert back to "controlling" the game.

 

Second half they tightened up but the game was pretty much over by half time and we probably took our foot off the gas.

Edited 5 October 2022 by whoareyaaa

[filbertway]

Just now, pedmcl said:

Haha poor choice of wording, allow me to explain myself

 

 

They made it very easy to do it. They weren't pressing us and weren't particularly sat deep in the first half. They were just as responsible for the flow of the game as we were.

 

If we see the same against Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds and Wolves then I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong and there's a clear difference to how we're playing.

 

At the minute, I'd attribute it to them not having a clue what they're doing as much as us suddenly becoming a high tempo high pressing team.

 

 

[Fox92]

34 minutes ago, filbertway said:

I think a few people are in for a shock after getting carried away with us beating a very poor and disorganised team with a deflection and 3 worldies.

I think people will be surprised with Bournemouth, they haven't conceded too many since conceding 9 at Liverpool. That includes clean sheets against Newcastle and Brentford.

 

But, for me, it was more than beating a "very poor" team with "3 worldies". We were far much better than them, our football was fast and back to how it was early 19-20, the players were passionate and up for every challenge. The manner of our win was so good, I think it was our best performance in a year (since Man Utd home last season). Time will tell if it was all in the heat of a local derby but hopefully it carries into this month as we have some winnable games now (aside from Manchester City).

[filbertway]

3 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Second half they tightened up but the game was pretty much over by half time and we probably took our foot off the gas.

We showed very litte desire to throw bodies forwards but there was plenty of opportunity and Forest misplaced passes to us all through the game. We were just as guilty at times, but nowhere to the extent they did.

 

It was like watching a Sunday league team with Premier League fitness at times

 

[filbertway]

1 minute ago, Fox92 said:

I think people will be surprised with Bournemouth, they haven't conceded too many since conceding 9 at Liverpool. That includes clean sheets against Newcastle and Brentford.

 

But, for me, it was more than beating a "very poor" team with "3 worldies". We were far much better than them, our football was fast and back to how it was early 19-20, the players were passionate and up for every challenge. The manner of our win was so good, I think it was our best performance in a year (since Man Utd home last season). Time will tell if it was all in the heat of a local derby but hopefully it carries into this month as we have some winnable games now (aside from Manchester City).

It'd be nice if that's the case and we can pick up 12-15 points before the world cup begins. It'll give us a nice window then to let go of Rodgers and bring in a new manager to work with the team. 

 

I'm not convinced though.  

[CosbehFox]

33 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Maddison - xG 1.31 - 5 goals

Zaha - xG 3.08 - 4

Toney - xG 4.44 - 5 goals

Mitrovic - xG 4.53 - 6 goals

 

All 4 exceeding their statistical probabilities, but there's a clear outlier in overperformance.

 

We didn't really go at Forest a great deal, they were simply very unorganised. We'll face a tigher unit in Bournemouth and you'll see us revert back to "controlling" the game.

 

 

Not really a fair comparison considering opposition faced this season - Maddison has scored at Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal this season. Equally Toney and Mitrovic both scored penalties amongst their tallies. 

 

I take your point but its not comparable considering position, opposition and the make up of those goals 

[LFox99]

The question will be Vardy or Daka...

I'm really unsure myself on this. While Vardy didn't score against the shite, he still helped the team out massively by chasing those long balls down the wing and recycling possession, not to mention he actually had 2 or 3 decent chances which he should've scored from. 

But then Daka came on and looked really good. What I was most pleased to see was how much more confident he seemed on the ball. He actually carried it, dribbled with it, played nice little lay offs and then obviously the cherry on top with the Vardy-esque backheel

Edited 5 October 2022 by LFox99

[Supergray22]

This will be a tougher game than florist. They will pose more attacking threat at home and see us as an opportunity to get three points themselves. That being said I hope we have turned a corner now and come away with three points. 1-2 Maddison and Barnes. 

[OntarioFox]

1 hour ago, filbertway said:

Haha poor choice of wording, allow me to explain myself

 

 

They made it very easy to do it. They weren't pressing us and weren't particularly sat deep in the first half. They were just as responsible for the flow of the game as we were.

 

If we see the same against Bournemouth, Palace, Leeds and Wolves then I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong and there's a clear difference to how we're playing.

 

At the minute, I'd attribute it to them not having a clue what they're doing as much as us suddenly becoming a high tempo high pressing team.

 

 

I must admit I was surprised by how high Forest's line was - it was way too easy for us to get in behind, Vardy's assist for Harvey's goal a prime example. I can't actually remember the last time we had that much freedom in the final third, and it's very much the exception rather than the rule. I guess at a push Arsenal and Spurs both did, but only when they were already winning.

 

Bournemouth will be a far tougher test. The reassuring thing is that the dogs**t Forest attack we faced on Monday still put two past them. But let's not kid ourselves, they'll sit deep and be very difficult to break down.

 

[FoxinNotts]

6-0 win. Vardy hatrick, Madders, Barnes and Daka

[ARM1968]

1 hour ago, filbertway said:

Maddison - xG 1.31 - 5 goals

Zaha - xG 3.08 - 4

Toney - xG 4.44 - 5 goals

Mitrovic - xG 4.53 - 6 goals

 

All 4 exceeding their statistical probabilities, but there's a clear outlier in overperformance.

 

We didn't really go at Forest a great deal, they were simply very unorganised. We'll face a tigher unit in Bournemouth and you'll see us revert back to "controlling" the game.

 

Which gets us literally nowhere. Need to allow them on to us and then break at speed. It works. It ALWAYS works. 

[Ric Flair]

Maddison will often be an xG outlier because he is without doubt one of the best long range finishers in the league, if not Europe. Its why he's such a regular scorer even if he plays out of position where he isn't at the fulcrum of where the ball lands inside the box. He still scores his fair share of goals you'd expect a player to dispatch (see Norwich at home, Watford away and Southampton at home in those final few games of the season).

 

He's the one player I have no concerns about long term that the style of play of him or the team means he will drop off his effectiveness, he is borderline elite level now and getting to Mahrez standards in producing such quality almost on his own.

[Clever Fox]

A win is a win as it will lift the players confidence, they just need to take the same intensity into the next game.

We have the ability, we just need to apply it on the day.