Patson Daka

[Lionator]

Bloke scored 4 goals in a Europa League game so he clearly has talent. It would all depend on who the manager is for me.

[Finnegan]

13 hours ago, Fox92 said:

Iheanacho had done more than Daka has.

 

He hadn't at all to be honest. This is before he became the unsung hero off the bench, this was much earlier. 

 

Daka had a terrific start here. Nevermind the four goals away in Moscow where he showed all the talent he needs, his minutes per G+A over the course of his first Premier League games were really quite high. Much better than Iheanacho's equivalent here. 

 

But he's been absolutely terribly managed and week by week his confidence got lower and lower and lower and the stats dried up. 

 

Even despite that and despite how fvcking terrible the service has been to all of our strikers, he was more productive than almost every player in the league last year outside the top six, only beaten by some of his team mates and Jarrod Bowen. 

 

Vardy managed 0.85 goal contributions per 90 minutes last year. For context, Salah (1.17), Mahrez (0.96) and De Bruyne (0.94) were the best in the league.

 

Vards was followed by Madders (0.73, ahead of Harry Kane's 0.72), Barnes (0.69), Iheanacho (0.64) and Daka (0.62) and Daka had more just goals per 90 than all of them except Madders and Vards. Bowen had 0.66 G+A/90 but less goals per 90 than Daka. 

 

He had better returns per minute for BOTH goals AND G+A/90 than Ivan Toney, Callum Wilson, Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins, Wilfred Zaha, DCL, Patrick Bamford, Benrama, Martinelli, Lacazette, Havertz, Richarlison, Saka, Olise, Bruno Fernandes (excl Pens), Che Adams, Marcus Rashford, Bernardo Silva, Martin Odegaard, I can literally do this all day. 

 

So, that's my evidence that Patson Daka is an extremely valuable forward we'd be stupid to let go. Even given inconsistent game time in an unproductive team, his knack for instinctively finding the net off both feet, his work rate and his willingness to get his head up to find team mates makes him an extremely underrated statistical machine. 

 

What's your evidence? He "falls over a lot"? Great, well done. So did Shinji Okazaki, Premier League winner. 

 

I suppose you want us to sign some ten foot tall carthorse who can spend his time out muscling defenders instead of scoring and creating goals. They give points for that, right? I assume that's why Wout Weghorst was wanted by United because it certainly wasn't his 0.12 goals a game and 0.31 G+A/90. How about Chris Wood with his 0.2?

 

If we get rid of Patson Daka, especially for cheap, it'll be a bigger transfer blunder than signing any of the ACTUAL flops we've brought in and no he isn't one of them. If we build a team for and around him next year he'll destroy the second tier. 

 

#justiceforpatson

/micdrop 

 

Edited 18 May 2023 by Finnegan

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, Finnegan said:

 

He hadn't at all to be honest. This is before he became the unsung hero off the bench, this was much earlier. 

 

Daka had a terrific start here. Nevermind the four goals away in Moscow where he showed all the talent he needs, his minutes per G+A over the course of his first Premier League games were really quite high. Much better than Iheanacho's equivalent here. 

 

But he's been absolutely terribly managed and week by week his confidence got lower and lower and lower and the stats dried up. 

 

Even despite that and despite how fvcking terrible the service has been to all of our strikers, he was more productive than almost every player in the league last year outside the top six, only beaten by some of his team mates and Jarrod Bowen. 

 

Vardy managed 0.85 goal contributions per 90 minutes last year. For context, Salah (1.17), Mahrez (0.96) and De Bruyne (0.94) were the best in the league.

 

Vards was followed by Madders (0.73, ahead of Harry Kane's 0.72), Barnes (0.69), Iheanacho (0.64) and Daka (0.62) and Daka had more just goals per 90 than all of them except Madders and Vards. Bowen had 0.66 G+A/90 but less goals per 90 than Daka. 

 

He had better returns per minute for BOTH goals AND G+A/90 than Ivan Toney, Callum Wilson, Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins, Wilfred Zaha, DCL, Patrick Bamford, Benrama, Martinelli, Lacazette, Havertz, Richarlison, Saka, Olise, Bruno Fernandes (excl Pens), Che Adams, Marcus Rashford, Bernardo Silva, Martin Odegaard, I can literally do this all day. 

 

So, that's my evidence that Patson Daka is an extremely valuable forward we'd be stupid to let go. Even given inconsistent game time in an unproductive team, his knack for instinctively finding the net off both feet, his work rate and his willingness to get his head up to find team mates makes him an extremely underrated statistical machine. 

 

What's your evidence? He "falls over a lot"? Great, well done. So did Shinji Okazaki, Premier League winner. 

 

I suppose you want us to sign some ten foot tall carthorse who can spend his time out muscling defenders instead of scoring and creating goals. They give points for that, right? I assume that's why Wout Weghorst was wanted by United because it certainly wasn't his 0.12 goals a game and 0.31 G+A/90. How about Chris Wood with his 0.2?

 

If we get rid of Patson Daka, especially for cheap, it'll be a bigger transfer blunder than signing any of the ACTUAL flops we've brought in and no he isn't one of them. If we build a team for and around him next year he'll destroy the second tier. 

 

#justiceforpatson

/micdrop 

 

Using g+a per minutes for players who come on in the last 30 minutes against tired legs isn’t anything like the incredible “mic drop” you think it is though. There’s always freak numbers in that category from perennial substitutes.

 

And he absolutely wasn’t “terrific” for us last season, that is revisionism to say the least. General opinion was he looked very raw and needed time to adapt but I never remember anyone at the time saying he actually looked brilliant. It really showed last season when Vardy was out and we had to play Iheanacho and/or Daka that there was a big drop off and a massive difference in both our performances and results when Vardy was out and Daka had to play.
 

Robert Firminho is currently 3rd this season in the PL because of late substitute appearances and I doubt anyone will say he’s had a great season. 
 

Trying to use the fact Daka got 5 goals and 3 assists in limited starts last season as a reason he “proved himself” at a high level is pretty clutching at straws, it’s extrapolating from very small numbers. I’d want a forward to at least have one season of double figure goals before you can say he’s remotely proven himself at PL level. 

That’s not to say Daka won’t come good, but this idea he is somehow proven and absolutely will come good is reaching in the extreme and using a 5 goal season as a “mic drop” is a pretty appealing bad take and in clearly in bad faith itself tbh

Edited 18 May 2023 by Sampson

[LVFox]

Watching Cameron Archer and Chuba Akpom last night, and seeing their goal records in the championship, I'm convinced Daka gets 30+.

[GingerrrFox]

I don’t know if people have watched much of the championship in recent years but there’s no way if Patson Daka stays here for next season that he doesn’t score 20 goals. He will tear that league up. If we somehow manage to keep Iheanacho and Daka the problem won’t be scoring goals it will be can we find some consistency on keeping the ball out at the other end. 

[Fox92]

2 minutes ago, LVFox said:

Watching Cameron Archer and Chuba Akpom last night, and seeing their goal records in the championship, I'm convinced Daka gets 30+.

You're looking at one game, not a whole season. Player rarely hit 30+ at that level, that's why there's only about 5 players that have done it in the last 30 years and two of them are recent (Toney, Mitrovic).

[Finnegan]

22 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Using g+a per minutes for players who come on in the last 30 minutes against tired legs isn’t anything like the incredible “mic drop” you think it is though. There’s always freak numbers in that category from perennial substitutes.

 

And he absolutely wasn’t “terrific” for us last season, that is revisionism to say the least. General opinion was he looked very raw and needed time to adapt but I never remember anyone at the time saying he actually looked brilliant. It really showed last season when Vardy was out and we had to play Iheanacho and/or Daka that there was a big drop off and a massive difference in both our performances and results when Vardy was out and Daka had to play.
 

Robert Firminho is currently 3rd this season in the PL because of late substitute appearances and I doubt anyone will say he’s had a great season. 
 

Trying to use the fact Daka got 5 goals and 3 assists in limited starts last season as a reason he “proved himself” at a high level is pretty clutching at straws, it’s extrapolating from very small numbers. I’d want a forward to at least have one season of double figure goals before you can say he’s remotely proven himself at PL level. 

That’s not to say Daka won’t come good, but this idea he is somehow proven and absolutely will come good is reaching in the extreme and using a 5 goal season as a “mic drop” is a pretty appealing bad take and in clearly in bad faith itself tbh

 

You know, fair, fair, there'd be some good points in this post.

 

Slight snag for you, though, being that all but 1 of Patson Daka's goals last season were scored in games he started and all but one of the goals he's scored this year were in, erm, games he started. The same is generally true for assists. He also got all of his goals and assists in the Europa League, Conference League and EFL cup in games in which he started.

 

Ergo, he's far more effective as a starter and far less effective as an impact sub "against tired legs."

 

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

You know, fair, fair, there'd be some good points in this post.

 

Slight snag for you, though, being that all but 1 of Patson Daka's goals last season were scored in games he started and all but one of the goals he's scored this year were in, erm, games he started. The same is generally true for assists. He also got all of his goals and assists in the Europa League, Conference League and EFL cup in games in which he started.

 

Ergo, he's far more effective as a starter and far less effective as an impact sub "against tired legs."

 

I mean, in that case you’re extrapolating even smaller numbers. I know you’re trolling with the mic drop stuff but you can’t genuinely believe he’s “proven” himself at this level based on last season where he got 5 league goals and had a great game where he scored 4 goals against a side who were struggling in the bottom half of the Russian league? 
 

Fair enough if you personally think he’ll come good, but it’s a far stretch to say he’s proven and I think it’s a perfectly fair argument that waiting for all these players who will “come good in the right system” rather than getting in proven players who can play in more than only in certain limited systems is a major reason we’re getting relegated.

Edited 18 May 2023 by Sampson

[Fox92]

1 hour ago, Finnegan said:

 

He hadn't at all to be honest. This is before he became the unsung hero off the bench, this was much earlier. 

 

Daka had a terrific start here. Nevermind the four goals away in Moscow where he showed all the talent he needs, his minutes per G+A over the course of his first Premier League games were really quite high. Much better than Iheanacho's equivalent here. 

 

But he's been absolutely terribly managed and week by week his confidence got lower and lower and lower and the stats dried up. 

 

Even despite that and despite how fvcking terrible the service has been to all of our strikers, he was more productive than almost every player in the league last year outside the top six, only beaten by some of his team mates and Jarrod Bowen. 

 

Vardy managed 0.85 goal contributions per 90 minutes last year. For context, Salah (1.17), Mahrez (0.96) and De Bruyne (0.94) were the best in the league.

 

Vards was followed by Madders (0.73, ahead of Harry Kane's 0.72), Barnes (0.69), Iheanacho (0.64) and Daka (0.62) and Daka had more just goals per 90 than all of them except Madders and Vards. Bowen had 0.66 G+A/90 but less goals per 90 than Daka. 

 

He had better returns per minute for BOTH goals AND G+A/90 than Ivan Toney, Callum Wilson, Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins, Wilfred Zaha, DCL, Patrick Bamford, Benrama, Martinelli, Lacazette, Havertz, Richarlison, Saka, Olise, Bruno Fernandes (excl Pens), Che Adams, Marcus Rashford, Bernardo Silva, Martin Odegaard, I can literally do this all day. 

 

So, that's my evidence that Patson Daka is an extremely valuable forward we'd be stupid to let go. Even given inconsistent game time in an unproductive team, his knack for instinctively finding the net off both feet, his work rate and his willingness to get his head up to find team mates makes him an extremely underrated statistical machine. 

 

What's your evidence? He "falls over a lot"? Great, well done. So did Shinji Okazaki, Premier League winner. 

 

I suppose you want us to sign some ten foot tall carthorse who can spend his time out muscling defenders instead of scoring and creating goals. They give points for that, right? I assume that's why Wout Weghorst was wanted by United because it certainly wasn't his 0.12 goals a game and 0.31 G+A/90. How about Chris Wood with his 0.2?

 

If we get rid of Patson Daka, especially for cheap, it'll be a bigger transfer blunder than signing any of the ACTUAL flops we've brought in and no he isn't one of them. If we build a team for and around him next year he'll destroy the second tier. 

 

#justiceforpatson

/micdrop 

 

All this goal contributions stuff. He scored 5 PL goals in 23 games. End of.

 

You compare to Ivan Toney who scored 12 and in a newly promoted side. Callum Wilson 8 goals, Ollie Watkins 11 goals. These played for largely poor sides. Bamford played 9 games last season because of his injuries. I could literally do this all day..

 

Plus, even me and you comparing is pointless because you're comparing one season. Daka has been here two seasons, more than 50 PL games, and not even managed 10 league goals.

 

Nobody wants ten foot tall carthorse. And this idea that you need to be a tall target man to be strong is wrong. Look at Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney as examples, movement, strength, pace.. all better than Daka.

 

We are in the shit because of poor recruitment, because of players like Daka brought in for big money and have not contributed enough. I will sit here and wait, I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but he isn't destroying anything.

 

Oh, and Okazaki used to fall all over a lot. Correct. But he used to get pelters for it to.

 

[Finnegan]

Just now, Sampson said:

I mean, in that case you’re extrapolating even smaller numbers. I know you’re trolling with the mic drop stuff but you can’t genuinely believe he’s “proven” himself based on last season where he got 5 league goals and had a great game where he scored 4 goals against a side who were struggling in the bottom half of the Russian league? 
 

Fair enough if you personally think he’ll come good, but it’s a far stretch to say he’s proven and I think it’s a perfectly fair argument that waiting for all these players who will “come good in the right system” is rather than getting in proven players who can play in more than only in certain limited systems is a major reason we’re getting relegated.

 

But now you're resorting to strawman-ing aren't you? I've a really terrible short term memory (I'm being sincere here) so maybe I have said historically that I think he's 'proven himself' in a moment of wild hyperbole (a key feature of my humour tbf) but I'm pretty confident I've not said that. You want me to have said that because then the bar is higher here for the burden of proof and I've got to somehow demonstrate he's 'proven himself' at this level. 

 

I said there was a "good player in there" and that it would be a mistake if we gave up and sold him before he got the opportunity to actually get a run as the main man under a manager that believes in him and wants him.

 

Obviously Patson Daka hasn't "proven himself" or else we wouldn't be having this discussion, if he'd "poven himself" FoxesTalk wouldn't be on his back at every opportunity and @Fox92 would have his neck wound in instead of chirping up about him at every opportunity (in a weirdly persistent way, for such a usually chill poster.) He hasn't proven himself in the same way Kelechi Iheanacho hadn't proven himself when City fans judged him too early and were literally booing when he got subbed on, the same way Madders hadn't proven himself when City fans were judging him too early and literally booing when he got subbed on and the same way they judged Jamie Vardy too early when people on here were calling him a flop, a failed experiment and wanted to see him go back to non league.

 

At the risk of going full "Col City Fan", I always thought Vardy was excellent and would come good, I always thought Iheanacho would come good and I feel very strongly about Daka the same way now. 

[Finnegan]

7 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

He scored 5 PL goals in 23 games. End of.

 

A lot of these "PL Games" are 10 minute cameos, that's why per 90 stats exist. You might not like them because they don't back up the narrative you have in your head but they're the far better indicators.

 

8 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

These played for largely poor sides

 

Our chance creation over the last two years has been absolutely appalling, we were well be low par last season and that slump has continued in to this year where we're looking to be relegated? Have you slept through the last 18 odd months?

 

9 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

Plus, even me and you comparing is pointless because you're comparing one season.

 

I refer you to a post I made in the another thread:

 

"Despite unquestionably having had a disappointing season this year and looking largely low on confidence and form throughout, playing for a team with absolutely awful chance creation rates, Patson Daka has got 4 goals and 4 assists from just 13 starts this year. 

 

He's managed 0.62 goals or assists every 90 minutes he's played. That's a better return than Watkins, L. Diaz, Gakpo, Son, Sterling, M. Antonio, Bernardo Silva, Richarlison, Bamford, Zaha, Brennan Johnson, Vardy, Joao Felix, Jarrod Bowen, Mateta, Wood, Pulisic, Madueke, the list goes on."

 

10 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

Daka has been here two seasons, more than 50 PL games, and not even managed 10 league goals.

 

Again, see points above RE: Stats per 90 and their value.

 

11 minutes ago, Fox92 said:

Look at Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney as examples, movement, strength, pace.. all better than Daka.

 

And yet despite those aesthetic, anecdotal observations, he out performed both last year in his debut season and has statistically outperformed Watkins per 90 this year, despite playing for a "largely poor side." There's absolutely no doubting that Toney has kicked on and taken his game to a whole other level and it's a shame he's been an idiot with the betting because he really is a talent. 

 

Look, I get that you're not that interested in stats, I get that you want to be more of a football puritan but they have value, they're excellent indicators of quality. I appreciate that to the eye Patson Daka looks a bit clumsy, looks a bit awkward, looks a bit raw. But he manages to get the ball in the net with a lot more frequency than most other players in his bracket and that gets hugely overlooked on here. 

[Sampson]

25 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

But now you're resorting to strawman-ing aren't you? I've a really terrible short term memory (I'm being sincere here) so maybe I have said historically that I think he's 'proven himself' in a moment of wild hyperbole (a key feature of my humour tbf) but I'm pretty confident I've not said that. You want me to have said that because then the bar is higher here for the burden of proof and I've got to somehow demonstrate he's 'proven himself' at this level. 

 

I said there was a "good player in there" and that it would be a mistake if we gave up and sold him before he got the opportunity to actually get a run as the main man under a manager that believes in him and wants him.

 

Obviously Patson Daka hasn't "proven himself" or else we wouldn't be having this discussion, if he'd "poven himself" FoxesTalk wouldn't be on his back at every opportunity and @Fox92 would have his neck wound in instead of chirping up about him at every opportunity (in a weirdly persistent way, for such a usually chill poster.) He hasn't proven himself in the same way Kelechi Iheanacho hadn't proven himself when City fans judged him too early and were literally booing when he got subbed on, the same way Madders hadn't proven himself when City fans were judging him too early and literally booing when he got subbed on and the same way they judged Jamie Vardy too early when people on here were calling him a flop, a failed experiment and wanted to see him go back to non league.

 

At the risk of going full "Col City Fan", I always thought Vardy was excellent and would come good, I always thought Iheanacho would come good and I feel very strongly about Daka the same way now. 

I’m not necessarily aiming that at you. But the countless posts we see here that he has shown he’s a good player because of his 4 goals vs Moscow and his goals in Austria. I mean there’s literally a post like that at the top of this page. It’s massively stretching.
 

He may well come good, but I think people using these examples of goals at lower levels and how he needs to play in the right system is an example of how our expectations of players have fallen and why we are in this mess. It’s the confidence of so many that he’s shown he *will* come good I really don’t understand. For me relying on him next season will be a massive risk. I hope he does come good but I have no idea why so many seem to have supreme confidence based on goals against low level teams. 
 

Go to Daka’s thread this season and you’ll see people say “he’ll come good if we play him in a 2”, go to Ndidi’s and you’ll see people say “he’ll come good if you play him as a destroyer in a 433” go to Maddison’s thread abd you’ll see “he needs to be number 10 in a 4231” go to Barnes thread and you’ll see “he needs to be on the left in a 433 with a defensive full back”.

 

I think everyone seems to have their favourite player and then demands we build the side around them , all in a different system. It’s one of our biggest problems. Even amongst Daka’s biggest fans there is the tacit admission that he’s a limited player who needs the team built around him in a certain way. It’s not a good trait in the modern game imo. I’d much rather see us go after players who are more versatile than players who need a system built around them.

Edited 18 May 2023 by Sampson

[Finnegan]

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Go to Daka’s thread this season and you’ll see people say “he’ll come good if we play him in a 2”,

 

I've had a number of rants about how much I hate "X striker can only play in a 2" comments. It's one of my biggest pet peeves, it's honestly one of the most moronic things people parrot on here and it shows an unbelievable lack of understanding in tactics.

 

5 minutes ago, Sampson said:

go to Maddison’s thread abd you’ll see “he needs to be number 10 in a 4231”

 

I've said a number of times that the team absolutely looked the best under Rodgers when Maddison was at 8, his personal stats for direct goal contributions were obviously lower but the team collectively were better for it.

 

6 minutes ago, Sampson said:

go to Ndidi’s and you’ll see people say “he’ll come good if you play him as a destroyer in a 433”

 

I mean that one I do partly agree with. I don't think anyone's going to "come good" magically, the whole squad needs really effective man management and the summer off to properly go and recover morale and confidence but Ndidi is unquestionably at his best when left to just shield the defence with two good ball playing  midfielders either side of him to cover his deficiencies. 

 

8 minutes ago, Sampson said:

demands we build the side around them , all in a different system

 

With the exception of the Maddison 8/10 debate you can accommodate nearly all of those at the same time can't you? The 433 we were initially successful in under Brendan Rodgers had Vardy doing essentially what Daka wants to be doing, had Barnes backed up by an athletic full back, had Madders at his creative best, had Ndidi left to just shield the back four. What you call "building the team around" these players could we not also just call playing round pegs in round holes?

 

When I talk about "building the team around" Daka I don't particularly mean that we should field 10 other players all with the single goal of playing to a specific set of strengths I perceive Daka to have. I just mean having a manager come in who wants to back him and is going to say "right, Patson, you're our first choice 9 and the main goal scorer for the side" in the same way that Vardy has largely had for most of the last decade. We don't have to do anything particularly crazy or different to enable Daka to score goals, we just have to create chances in and around the box, something we've been abysmal at for the last 18 months. 

 

14 minutes ago, Sampson said:

based on goals against low level teams. 

 

I do find it a little bit tiresome that it's 2023 and we're still dismissing other European leagues as if they were basically non-league whilst holding up the Championship like it's only a fraction below the Prem. It's fvcking awful. And Salzburg's alumni over the last few years include Sadio Mane, Erling Haaland, Karim Adeyemi, Dominik Szoboszlai, Stefan Lainer, Xaver Schlager, Amadou Haidara, Naby Keita, Dayot Upamecano, Peter Gulacsi and Kevin Kampl and I'm pretty confident the clubs that bought them were glad that they didn't ignore their statistical contributions because they "only" achieved them in Europe's 10th highest rated league. 

 

The year before Patson Daka joined us he'd scored a goal every 85 minutes and contributed a Goal+Assist every 63 minutes in all competitions with a goal every 72 minutes in the league alone. That might not be "proof" that he's definitely going to make it in the Premier League but anyone sniffing at it like it means nothing is frankly moronic. 

[Guest]

I can see him going on loan somewhere but I hope he stays. If shit like Carlton Morris, Andi Weimann and Lewis Grabban can hit 20 in the Championship then he certainly can provided we actually go back to creating regular chances for our forwards and Dean Smith isn't still here using him as an impact sub left winger

[Stadt]

If Daka started 35 PL games he'd score at the very worst something like 12 goals.

 

I think his all round game is a bit weak but there's no question he's capable of scoring lots of goals. His movement in the box and finishing ability are very good, he thrives on early balls and one-on-ones and we inexplicably stopped playing that way some time in 2021.

[LCFCJohn]

1 hour ago, Finnegan said:

 

But now you're resorting to strawman-ing aren't you? I've a really terrible short term memory (I'm being sincere here) so maybe I have said historically that I think he's 'proven himself' in a moment of wild hyperbole (a key feature of my humour tbf) but I'm pretty confident I've not said that. You want me to have said that because then the bar is higher here for the burden of proof and I've got to somehow demonstrate he's 'proven himself' at this level. 

 

I said there was a "good player in there" and that it would be a mistake if we gave up and sold him before he got the opportunity to actually get a run as the main man under a manager that believes in him and wants him.

 

Obviously Patson Daka hasn't "proven himself" or else we wouldn't be having this discussion, if he'd "poven himself" FoxesTalk wouldn't be on his back at every opportunity and @Fox92 would have his neck wound in instead of chirping up about him at every opportunity (in a weirdly persistent way, for such a usually chill poster.) He hasn't proven himself in the same way Kelechi Iheanacho hadn't proven himself when City fans judged him too early and were literally booing when he got subbed on, the same way Madders hadn't proven himself when City fans were judging him too early and literally booing when he got subbed on and the same way they judged Jamie Vardy too early when people on here were calling him a flop, a failed experiment and wanted to see him go back to non league.

 

At the risk of going full "Col City Fan", I always thought Vardy was excellent and would come good, I always thought Iheanacho would come good and I feel very strongly about Daka the same way now. 

Agree with all of this and to add, if he had ‘proven himself’ at Premier League level then he’d be certain to be out the door. It’s only the fact that there are some questions remaining that makes it possible to keep him.

 

As I said above, how many of the other 23 team in the championship would turn him down? I’m pretty certain none. Therefore we’d be lucky to have him still with us.

[FrankieADZ]

imo i think a season with us in the Championship could be the making of him here,

[Finnegan]

Okay so here's another way of looking at him. One thing I do dislike about goal and assist stats is that they're often presented (including by myself here) as individual stats when they're really team stats, if your team creates 100 chances for you a match then even the worst striker is going to bag over a goal a game. Equally, the best midfielders in the world can carve a defence open with some stunning build up play but it doesn't matter if Ade Akinbiyi is on the end of it. it's why xG and xA are great stats for individual evaluation.

 

So a fun thing we can look at is, and the anti-xG crowd are going to love this (sorry again @Fox92, I promise this isn't personal), "npG-xG/90" (I'd love to say that to Graeme Souness and watch the look on his face.) This is, basically, how did an individual do (excluding penalties) in the goal scoring vs the quality of chances they were presented with. Essentially, how effectively are they finishing broken down per 90. As with every stat, it needs to be taken and framed in context, you need to be comparing similar players where possible and you need to be aware of outliers. For example, Bertrand Traore has only 2.6 lots of 90 minutes this season and his xG is appalling but he scored an absolute worldie against us so he's the second highest performing player in the Prem 22/23 for npG-xG/90 with 0.5. Marc Albrighton is the 6th highest with 0.27, so you can see how this COULD be misrepresented, particularly with players who score freak bangers (Papy Mendy for example.)

 

But we're going to compare like for like, strikers who've played a moderate amount of games as a starting 9 and who we would expect to be getting most of their chances in and around the box with an average shot distance of <18 yards. Patson Daka outperformed his xG per 90 by 0.04 goals per 90 minutes so far this season.

 

Compared with some of the players we've been comparing him to in this thread - Callum Wilson (0.06), Danny Ings (0.02), Ivan Toney (0.02), Ollie Watkins (-0.03), Che Adams (-0.07), Richarlison (-0.15), Vardy (-0.15, oof), Iheanacho (-0.2 ), DCL (-0.29, jesus christ) and quite possibly the worst finisher in the Premier League, surprising absolutely nobody.... ladies and gentleman, round of applause for Mr. Neal Maupay at -0.3. Painful. 

 

At the other end of the league, unsurprising headline numbers - Bobby Firmino who someone mentioned earlier outperforms his expected goals by 0.33 a game, accurate. Foden is pretty handy at 0.27, Haaland predictably reliable at 0.24, what a turnaround by Miggy Almiron 0.19 and Harry Kane just behind him at 0.18.

Barnes and Madders are probably our best "actuals" at 0.12 and 0.11 respectively, with Madders though this is where non-like for like comparisons come in with xG, the average Maddison shot will have a considerably lower 'expected' goals than the average Barnes one, reflected by Harvey Barnes average shot distance of 16 yards vs. James Maddison's average shot distance of 21.3 yards with Barnes being unsurprisingly more accurate on the whole. 

 

Who is that dude that does the Leicester Football Manager editing? THIS is why I keep telling you to raise Barnes' finishing stat.

 

Edited 18 May 2023 by Finnegan

[JimJams]

Would be interesting to see if Brentford would be interested in a loan of him to replace the suspended Toney for 8 months if whoever comes in for us doesn't want him.

[Phenom]

Him and Nacho will kill it in the Championship. We need both if we want to go up. Plus, it’s not like his value is high right now.

Edited 18 May 2023 by Phenom

[Dahnsouff]

Not convinced we can keep him, but I do hope so.

[lcfc sheff]

I prefer someone with a better all round game, it’s like having one less man on the pitch nowadays with just having a poacher as a striker 

[Finnegan]

2 hours ago, Phenom said:

We need both if we want to stay up

 

Sorry, in the Championship!?

 

I know negativity is rife around here but you're not seriously suggesting - before we've even been relegated - that we're in significant danger of going back to League One?

[Phenom]

5 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Sorry, in the Championship!?

 

I know negativity is rife around here but you're not seriously suggesting - before we've even been relegated - that we're in significant danger of going back to League One?

I mean go up 

[Buzzell]

I hope we keep him here. I have a feeling he would absolutely shine in the Championship. Also stop playing him out wide. He isn’t a winger.