Deucalion Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 I'm surprised nobody has already started a thread on this? My tuppence worth. While Ukraine should be able to be a member of the EU if that's what the majority in the country want, the EU has to be careful to not be provocative in it's support. The EU's well meaning recognition of ex-Yugoslavian states was instrumental in Serbia acting aggressively to separatism in Croatia and Bosnia, and something similar could happen with Russia in the Ukraine. I think a price worth paying for true Ukrainian independence from Russia might be the Crimea. Russia has it's Black Sea fleet based there and there is great support for Russia in the peninsular. For me, the armed men holding the airports are clearly Russian backed and there as bait to justify a Russian invasion. If Russia invades Ukraine, does the EU and NATO stand by and watch helplessly? Russia has got away with annexing want-away provinces when they have been tucked away in the Caucasus, but it will be more difficult to do so when the country to be annexed stands on the EU's borders. Ukraine might be headed for civil war, with the opposition heavily supported by Russia. Selfishly, I see potential here for a wider conflict and fear our cosy affluent lives could be effected by something not felt on these shores for 70 years. To me the Ukrainians are clearly in the right, but how far should we go, and how much should we risk, to see justice prevail against a menacing and aggressive larger neighbour?
Vacamion Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 30 years ago I would have been crapping it about a nuclear war. [i re-watched "Threads" earlier this week - if any of the younger folk reading this this don't know what I am on about, look up "Threads/Nuclear War" on YouTube - without wishing to spoil it, the good news is - Sheffield gets levelled ] Nowadays, however, I think that Russia is more fearful of a trade embargo and losing money than it is of war and losing people. If Russia does anything militarily, they risk their financial relationship with the rest of the world. I would think that they want to get richer, not provoke a conflict. The UK should stay well out of it, IMO.
Deucalion Posted 28 February 2014 Author Posted 28 February 2014 30 years ago I would have been crapping it about a nuclear war. [i re-watched "Threads" earlier this week - if any of the younger folk reading this this don't know what I am on about, look up "Threads/Nuclear War" on YouTube - without wishing to spoil it, the good news is - Sheffield gets levelled ] Nowadays, however, I think that Russia is more fearful of a trade embargo and losing money than it is of war and losing people. If Russia does anything militarily, they risk their financial relationship with the rest of the world. I would think that they want to get richer, not provoke a conflict. The UK should stay well out of it, IMO. Oi, I lived in Sheffield for a couple of years !! But seriously, anyone of a certain age probably had nightmares about Threads. I remember when I was growing up being kept awake at night about the prospect of nuclear war. It seemed like a very real possibility to a nervous and neurotic adolescent. It is a fear that younger people haven't lived with and for me, far outweighed recent fears of terrorism. On the Ukraine, I wish I could share your faith in the restraint of Russia.
Strokes Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 Honestly, ruskkies are a nasty bunch. If we can avoid a conflict then it must be sought. Its frightening to think of the potential this has, so i wont think about it.
MPH Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 Part of the issues go back to Russian policy which has long stated that they are obliged to protect their citizens abroad. If necessary, by military intervention. Most other nations will support their citizens abroad which is actually very different to protecting them. I have no doubt that they are using this policy as a front for wanting crimea. They appear, very purposefully, to be antagonizing and provoking the Ukraine to strike back and justify huge amounts of soldiers piling in. Will be interesting to see what the European Union and the United nations do about this. .. quite a policy shift recently with ' problem nations' with economic sanctions now being preferred by most member nations over military intervention. Especially when a military powerhouse like Russia is involved. Intrestingly, the Russian population in crimea has been declining recently with ethnic Muslim tartars returning to the area and more Ukraine nationals moving there too. I also think it's significant that members of the Ukraine secret service that was disbanded have been offered Russian citizenship by that nation that defends it's nationals and guess where the passports will be issued? The Capitol of crimea. These are people who indiscriminately were killing protesters and those who Ukraine want to bring to justice...
MooseBreath Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 How are we going to get involved? Can't see the EU getting into any serious violence against Russia and its allies for the sake of Ukraine.
Deucalion Posted 28 February 2014 Author Posted 28 February 2014 How are we going to get involved? Can't see the EU getting into any serious violence against Russia and its allies for the sake of Ukraine. Well...the EU contributed to NATO becoming involved, against the wishes of Russia, in Bosnia and Serbia Kosovo. Ukraine is an associate member of the EU, Bosnia and Serbia were not.
Jon the Hat Posted 28 February 2014 Posted 28 February 2014 No chance of NATO doing anything militarily in Ukraine at all and Russia know it. Russia appear to have occupied Crimea today near enough, let's hope they stop at that.
maynefox Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 I feel Ukraine should not be allowed into the EU yet. Even if the ousted PM turned towards the EU instead of Russia, their economy was already in a bad state and now there are fears of hyperinflation.As for Crimea, tricky. It is heavily Russian, culturally and historically. One of my theories is that Ukraine will possibly split in two, it is not just in the Crimea, large parts of Eastern-Ukraine are like the Crimea. Therefore Ukraine and Russia, to avoid war, must talk about separatism in those regions. I tell you if the Crimea is annexed by the Russians easily they will do the same to other Eastern regions of Ukraine.These "armed men" are obviously Putin's men. Those two countries have to talk or the West must take action over bellicose actions from Russia (as seen in 2008 over Georgia). The West must take a military stance against any attempts of annexation over the Crimea (unless the Ukraine and Russia can negotiate some sort of separatist peaceful treaty).Russia for two long has bullied and manipulated its former USSR members to an extent that they are basically puppeted by Moscow. I do feel it is time for Moscow to be put back in its place, they are very much being provocative and I wouldn't be surprised if war occurred; whether that be from the West, Civil War or a war between Ukraine and Russia.Of course all of this is from my Realist outlook on the global community.
maynefox Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 30 years ago I would have been crapping it about a nuclear war. [i re-watched "Threads" earlier this week - if any of the younger folk reading this this don't know what I am on about, look up "Threads/Nuclear War" on YouTube - without wishing to spoil it, the good news is - Sheffield gets levelled ] Nowadays, however, I think that Russia is more fearful of a trade embargo and losing money than it is of war and losing people. If Russia does anything militarily, they risk their financial relationship with the rest of the world. I would think that they want to get richer, not provoke a conflict. The UK should stay well out of it, IMO. I would perhaps disagree with that statement, respectfully of course Russia is projected to be one of the leading world economies in the future. Classed as a BRIC they have huge potential and this is mostly due to their national resources, namely oil and gas. The EU and the European continent is heavily reliant on oil/gas pipelines from Russia. We (EU) has proposed the building of pipelines that go-around Russia, but when/if completed they still won't be on a same output as the Russian piplines. It is more the case that the European community needs Russia's pipleines and if we don't they will look to China and other "crooked" nations, who are probably better market for them. Russia has used its pipleines has a bullying tactic to try and force countries to comply with them and not the EU. They might not won't to provoke a conflict, but they are certainly acting in a bellicose manner; possibly because they know NATO/West does not have the plums to challenge them.
MPH Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Save the tatars! Seriously though, the Muslim tatars were sent packing from crimea by stalin and consider crimea to be their home and have recently been returning home and do NOT want the Russian flag risen in THEIR homeland. The new Ukrainian government, if smart, could have someone to fight their battle for them....
Libertine Dream Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 No way will we get involved in this, we accept our place more now, particularly under Cameron and know that we have very little muscle on this. In truth nobody else will get involved with their military, pressure will be put on Russia by everyone but it will be left to the two nations to sort it out themselves. There's a reason that the west got involved with Libya and not Syria. You can argue that it was seen as a chance to get rid of a long time enemy for the west in Gadaffi whereas Assad has never really hurt the west but in truth it's because Russia is a strong ally for Syria and so nobody in the west wanted to take that on. As has been mentioned, I think Ukraine might end up splitting, this whole thing has come about because the younger people in western areas of Ukraine want to associate with the EU whereas elders and those in the far east of the country wish to remain pally with Russia. Putin will get his way somehow, Ukraine are still far too reliant on Russia and the west is neither interested nor willing to take any kind of risk
Vacamion Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 I would perhaps disagree with that statement, respectfully of course Russia is projected to be one of the leading world economies in the future. Classed as a BRIC they have huge potential and this is mostly due to their national resources, namely oil and gas. The EU and the European continent is heavily reliant on oil/gas pipelines from Russia. We (EU) has proposed the building of pipelines that go-around Russia, but when/if completed they still won't be on a same output as the Russian piplines. It is more the case that the European community needs Russia's pipleines and if we don't they will look to China and other "crooked" nations, who are probably better market for them. Russia has used its pipleines has a bullying tactic to try and force countries to comply with them and not the EU. They might not won't to provoke a conflict, but they are certainly acting in a bellicose manner; possibly because they know NATO/West does not have the plums to challenge them. What a polite disagreement! I was thinking that with the US and Europe starting to frack their way out of reliance on autocratic and unreliable energy producing nations, the Russians don't want to force the EU down a road where they would rather obtain their energy elsewhere. Trade is obviously really important to a growing economy. It was a non-existant consideration under communism, but I don't think a growing Russia can ignore the possible impact of pariah status on their economy. However, I do agree that the Russians, with their pipelines, hold a whip hand over the EU right at this moment.
Finnegan Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Chop it down the middle. Give the west to the EU, the boxer and the milf and give the east to the cossacks. Simples.
AndWhat? Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Chop it down the middle. Give the west to the EU, the boxer and the milf and give the east to the cossacks. Simples. you should be president of the world, everything would be so easy!
bovril Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Timoshenko to save Ukraine, free Pussy Riot, end worldwide homophobia and give the skating gold medal to that Korean lass. Putin to give Alex Salmond 35 billion dollar loan in revenge.
bovril Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Most people I met in Odessa last year saw themselves completely as Russian. One guy even said that Putin had been sent by God to protect Orthodox people from Western imperialism I don't think a lot of people can really understand the Russian mentality. Their biggest fear is not the US but the Germans, they lost millions in the war defending their country and they are still super-paranoid about a German-dominated EU. Ukraine is their neighbour, their Black Sea fleet is there, there are millions of Russians living there. Who are Hague and Rice to make veiled threats to Russia about 'intervention' from miles away?
sphericalfox Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 not sure how bias these facts may well be but more info for the debate at least. http://rt.com/news/crimea-facts-protests-politics-945/
maynefox Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 What a polite disagreement! I was thinking that with the US and Europe starting to frack their way out of reliance on autocratic and unreliable energy producing nations, the Russians don't want to force the EU down a road where they would rather obtain their energy elsewhere. Trade is obviously really important to a growing economy. It was a non-existant consideration under communism, but I don't think a growing Russia can ignore the possible impact of pariah status on their economy. However, I do agree that the Russians, with their pipelines, hold a whip hand over the EU right at this moment. That too is a good point. I suppose we'll have to see in the future As for fracking, huge in America, but whether or not we will take full advantage here, in Britain, is less likely IMO
Happy Fox Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 WW3 is on its way. Shame really but hopefully this will wake up the world that war is not the answer, and peace is, we are all human beings after all.
Buce Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 we are all human beings after all. There are a few on here that would struggle to meet the criteria.
purpleronnie Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Chop it down the middle. Give the west to the EU, the boxer and the milf and give the east to the cossacks. Simples.
Guest MattP Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 I wish Vladimir Putin was our PM. The people of Eastern Ukraine now want the far too socialist Americans to stay out, how times change!
Deucalion Posted 1 March 2014 Author Posted 1 March 2014 The new leader of Crimea has asked for Putin's help to 'ensure peace'. This is so clumsy it is unreal.
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