leicsmac Posted 9 April 2018 Share Posted 9 April 2018 6 minutes ago, MattP said: Not sure where this paranoia about war with Russia comes from. It’s not the USSR. Russia is only a military player in the region as a superpower because Western leaders (I'm looking at you Barack with your red lines you allowed others to cross) were never willing to put the boot down a few years ago. Putin is a very clever guy. He’s ex-KGB and he knows his limits. If the US hadn’t vacated it's moral duty in the Middle East because of Iraq, Putin would just be busy killing his own critics. Not Assad's. No country with nuclear weapons is ever going to face the danger of a serious offensive. It's the ultimate deterrent. As much as moral interventionism is often a contradiction in terms for me the bolded is the nub and the crux of it. MAD holds - as it always has, even in times much more tense than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 9 April 2018 Share Posted 9 April 2018 FBI raid office of Trump’s lawyer: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43706709 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sylofox Posted 9 April 2018 Share Posted 9 April 2018 On 29/03/2018 at 21:31, Strokes said: Everbody that’s said Trumps a **** will be rejected. Who needs walls? Unless you've made a death threat. Then its business class return flights and a 5* hotel all inclusive of the CIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 9 April 2018 Share Posted 9 April 2018 I ponder if Trump stirring things, making the world seem a less safe place is part of a general tactic - because for one, it wouldn’t harm his re-election chances, but more prominent in this is Trump’s love of a strong military, his wish for other countries to contribute more to the US’s military global protectionism and the benefits that could come from this in terms of US weapons manufacturing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detroit Blues Posted 10 April 2018 Share Posted 10 April 2018 (edited) Raiding Michael Cohen's office/home might finally convince Trump to try and get away with firing Mueller and ending the investigation. On the otherhand, the seized documents might directly link Trump and Cohen to campaign finance crimes. The evidence gathered might be damning, and if so, it might force Trump to make a move. Trump would love for AG Jeff sessions to fire Mueller, but he recused himself. He would need to fire sessions and replace him with a new attorney general to fire Mueller. Unfortunately for Trump, sessions is protected by the Republican Congress so firing him might make the Republicans more inclined to impeach him. If they get killed in the mid terms, they might see the writing on the wall. Meanwhile Manafort was just denied bail, and could likely tie Trump personally to a number of crimes if he is willing to cooperate. However, he is banking on Trump pardoning him if he refuses to play ball. But if Trump is going down anyway, due to this Cohen raid, who will pardon him? Perhaps the closer Mueller gets to Trump, the more likely Manafort will crack. Russian spies, hacking, porn stars, legal drama, partisan politics... The story will make for a good movie one day. Edited 10 April 2018 by Detroit Blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozleicester Posted 10 April 2018 Share Posted 10 April 2018 2 hours ago, Detroit Blues said: Raiding Michael Cohen's office/home might finally convince Trump to try and get away with firing Mueller and ending the investigation. On the otherhand, the seized documents might directly link Trump and Cohen to campaign finance crimes. The evidence gathered might be damning, and if so, it might force Trump to make a move. Trump would love for AG Jeff sessions to fire Mueller, but he recused himself. He would need to fire sessions and replace him with a new attorney general to fire Mueller. Unfortunately for Trump, sessions is protected by the Republican Congress so firing him might make the Republicans more inclined to impeach him. If they get killed in the mid terms, they might see the writing on the wall. Meanwhile Manafort was just denied bail, and could likely tie Trump personally to a number of crimes if he is willing to cooperate. However, he is banking on Trump pardoning him if he refuses to play ball. But if Trump is going down anyway, due to this Cohen raid, who will pardon him? Perhaps the closer Mueller gets to Trump, the more likely Manafort will crack. Russian spies, hacking, porn stars, legal drama, partisan politics... The story will make for a good movie one day. Too unbelievable, the scriptwriters will be laughed out of hollywood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jattdogg Posted 10 April 2018 Share Posted 10 April 2018 The thing in all of this is what if the guy is actually totally innocent. Dems are just itching for poo to hit the fan and impeach. I just dont think it will happen even if certain things are found. Dems would cry if trump is exonerated and i could actually see this somehow making trumps numbers go up. For an outsider its a good comedy to watch both sides look like bell ends. Fox news and cnn are both comical and full of smug looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 10 April 2018 Share Posted 10 April 2018 10 hours ago, Detroit Blues said: Raiding Michael Cohen's office/home might finally convince Trump to try and get away with firing Mueller and ending the investigation. On the otherhand, the seized documents might directly link Trump and Cohen to campaign finance crimes. The evidence gathered might be damning, and if so, it might force Trump to make a move. Trump would love for AG Jeff sessions to fire Mueller, but he recused himself. He would need to fire sessions and replace him with a new attorney general to fire Mueller. Unfortunately for Trump, sessions is protected by the Republican Congress so firing him might make the Republicans more inclined to impeach him. If they get killed in the mid terms, they might see the writing on the wall. Meanwhile Manafort was just denied bail, and could likely tie Trump personally to a number of crimes if he is willing to cooperate. However, he is banking on Trump pardoning him if he refuses to play ball. But if Trump is going down anyway, due to this Cohen raid, who will pardon him? Perhaps the closer Mueller gets to Trump, the more likely Manafort will crack. Russian spies, hacking, porn stars, legal drama, partisan politics... The story will make for a good movie one day. It does have shades of Nixon about it all. Just waiting for the "expletive deleted" tape to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Oxlong Posted 10 April 2018 Share Posted 10 April 2018 He’ll be really worried that the fish fetish photos might surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43729218 Ryan seeing the writing on the wall for November? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43727829 ....sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 52 minutes ago, leicsmac said: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43729218 Ryan seeing the writing on the wall for November? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43727829 ....sigh. And May is playing ‘heel’ like the poodle she is. This is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beechey Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 (edited) No way we'd risk hitting Russian troops on purpose. Strikes will probably take place elsewhere. I'd expect some non-important airbases to be hit, for example. A show of force rather than crippling of Assad's capabilities. Could easily be wrong though, estimating this man's next step is impossible. Edited 11 April 2018 by Beechey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FriendlyRam Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 Either way, he's not playing "3 dimensional backgammom" as his supporters so stupidly believe. The bloke makes no sense, you can't be friends with Putin/Russia one minute and then go and threaten them on Twitter the next, you can't have it both ways ffs. But they've been convinced by the alt right that he's a tactical genius, I wouldn't call threatening another super power over an open media a "genius" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 There is no chance of war why do people get so carried away. If will be a few missile drops again to make it look like we have done something well away from anything and then it's all forgotten about. Russia or the US can't afford a war and Assad has won the Syrian civil war. Barack Obama has so much to answer for on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 4 minutes ago, MattP said: There is no chance of war why do people get so carried away. If will be a few missile drops again to make it look like we have done something well away from anything and then it's all forgotten about. Russia or the US can't afford a war and Assad has won the Syrian civil war. Barack Obama has so much to answer for on this. I'm not entirely sure Obama is all that responsible for Trump acting in the way he is doing regarding this situation, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 2 minutes ago, leicsmac said: I'm not entirely sure Obama is all that responsible for Trump acting in the way he is doing regarding this situation, tbh. If Obama had stuck to his red lines and not been so impotent we wouldn't be standing here watching children get gassed now. Unfortunately Assad and Putin know he was weak and full of shit and they could end up in this position of dominance because of it. You can't blame Trump for that no matter how much you want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 1 hour ago, MattP said: If Obama had stuck to his red lines and not been so impotent we wouldn't be standing here watching children get gassed now. Unfortunately Assad and Putin know he was weak and full of shit and they could end up in this position of dominance because of it. You can't blame Trump for that no matter how much you want to. Can’t place this all on Obama - America’s image as an interventionist national for good had been tarnished by those before him, requiring a different tactic to be applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 1 minute ago, DJ Barry Hammond said: Can’t place this all on Obama - America’s image as an interventionist national for good had been tarnished by those before him, requiring a different tactic to be applied. Totally agree, that Iraq war really has had long ranging consequences, disastrous for Saddam but a delight now for dictators. You don't set "red lines" though if you are prepared to do nothing when they are broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 2 minutes ago, MattP said: Totally agree, that Iraq war really has had long ranging consequences, disastrous for Saddam but a delight now for dictators. You don't set "red lines" though if you are prepared to do nothing when they are broken. That suggests diplomacy / authorising military action are easy things. We can all second guess after the fact - but at the time, with infinite considerations to take on board? It would be foolish to be so sure of oneself. Personally I’m much more inclined to be forgiving to Obama, given I believe hewould have made considered decisions, based on a wide range of professional view points and input, guided by a strong set of upstanding moral judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m4DD0gg Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 I have never seen something so engineered and quite frankly dangerous. How naive do the government think we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beechey Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 It was also the UK Parliament voting in 2013 to not join the USA in strikes against Assad that pushed Obama to back away as we were the only other major power with them up until that point. Both the UK and USA are at fault here, but so are every other major country near Syria for also not intervening when banned weapons were used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breadandcheese Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 Trump's tweet today, once again showed why he is not fit to be president. Absolutely incredible. I genuinely don't know what to do from here. There has to be a response to the chemical weapon use, otherwise, it will become normalised, not just in Syria, which is frightening. However, Russia now pretty much run the Middle East, so all paths flow through them. Unfortunately, they've shown themselves not to care about upholding the laws on chemical, biological weapons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leicsmac Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 2 hours ago, MattP said: If Obama had stuck to his red lines and not been so impotent we wouldn't be standing here watching children get gassed now. Unfortunately Assad and Putin know he was weak and full of shit and they could end up in this position of dominance because of it. You can't blame Trump for that no matter how much you want to. Was going to reply to this but you and Barry pretty much covered all the salient points I was going to make in the subsequent discussion, barring Trump showing yet again just how ridiculous his language approaching the matter is. To be honest, getting rid of Assad is the morally right thing to do but I'm entirely unconvinced that an intervention to do it will save more lives than it takes in the long term overall - what with the action and the aftermath both, to say nothing of the Russian response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joachim1965 Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 I am genuinely concerned about the way this is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 11 April 2018 Share Posted 11 April 2018 2 hours ago, leicsmac said: Was going to reply to this but you and Barry pretty much covered all the salient points I was going to make in the subsequent discussion, barring Trump showing yet again just how ridiculous his language approaching the matter is. To be honest, getting rid of Assad is the morally right thing to do but I'm entirely unconvinced that an intervention to do it will save more lives than it takes in the long term overall - what with the action and the aftermath both, to say nothing of the Russian response. I didn't expect Obama to get rid of Assad, just make it abundantly clear there would be consequences if he broke international law. Any action is pointless now, the opposition has been gassed, Assad is going to win and Russia is again aakor player in the Middle East. Dangerous times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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