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[Finnegan]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

Indicative Vote.

 

Vindictive Stoat

 

 

This is probably the best post in all the versions of foxestalk's politics threads. 

[Guest MattP]

What on earth happens if nothing comes out of the indicative votes with a majority?

[Collymore]

BBC News - BA flight lands in Edinburgh instead of Düsseldorf by mistake

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47691478

 

It is hugely unusual for passengers to board a flight and then arrive at the wrong destination - and it presents lots of uncomfortable questions about procedure and standards.

 

The uncomfortable question is why not one passenger realised they were travelling north out of London and didn't go over the sea. Just sums up how dumb the general public are an so unaware of their surroundings. I don't give a crap about cloud cover or nightime, you should be on the ball... 

 

Edit - Looks like it was day light and clear sky. Beggars belief. 

[bovril]

10 minutes ago, Collymore said:

 

The uncomfortable question is why not one passenger realised they were travelling north out of London and didn't go over the sea. Just sums up how dumb the general public are an so unaware of their surroundings. I don't give a crap about cloud cover or nightime, you should be on the ball... 

 

I have no doubt that some people thought, "hmm, that's a bit odd, must've missed the sea". However, nobody is ever going to go up to the front and tell the stewardess they think the plane is going the wrong way. 

[Guest the fox]

So, this became another politics/Brexit thread?

[Collymore]

6 minutes ago, bovril said:

I have no doubt that some people thought, "hmm, that's a bit odd, must've missed the sea". However, nobody is ever going to go up to the front and tell the stewardess they think the plane is going the wrong way. 

People too busy playing crap games on their phone when they actually have a device in their hands to give a GPS location, even on a plane. 

 

[bovril]

Just now, Collymore said:

People too busy playing crap games on their phone when they actually have a device in their hands to give a GPS location, even on a plane. 

 

You'd still think your phone was playing up rather than the pilot was flying the wrong way. 

[Grebfromgrebland]

1 minute ago, the fox said:

So, this became another politics/Brexit thread?

Looks like it. Actually watching parliament as we speak. Quite interesting and events of tonight will dictate how brexit will go and now it out of the hands of the Tory party and in the hands of parliament.

 

Doesn't move us further on though.

[Legend_in_blue]

Bridgen closes by saying it'll be status quo come the new deadline and remainers will accept the position of the vote as it was.  Er, no.  Try again chap.  

[Jon the Hat]

12 minutes ago, the fox said:

So, this became another politics/Brexit thread?

I would say it has roughly the same proportion of Brexit to other news as the actual news at the moment.

[bovril]

42 minutes ago, MattP said:

What on earth happens if nothing comes out of the indicative votes with a majority?

I do hope one of the options is to send 10 of our top people (5 men and 5 women) to a cave for 50 years to rear children and restart civilisation.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

7 hours ago, bovril said:

I do hope one of the options is to send 10 of our top people (5 men and 5 women) to a cave for 50 years to rear children and restart civilisation.

Can we have a vote on who goes?...... then again maybe not.

 

[Bellend Sebastian]

8 hours ago, bovril said:

I do hope one of the options is to send 10 of our top people (5 men and 5 women) to a cave for 50 years to rear children and restart civilisation.

But what if I'm busy

[Buce]

9 hours ago, David Guiza said:

Astounding that he thought it was akin to the Civil Rights movement, the warped minds of these idiots are incredible. The far right and left haven't half inspired some utter morons over the past few years. You'd think the Jo Cox murder would wake these people up to the reality of their actions, but seemingly not. 

 

Also, egging and punching now synonyms it seems, were he carrying his house keys whilst punching I assume the headline wouldn't have been 'Corbyn keyed'. I appreciate that egging is a longstanding political protest - this however is not that. 

 

 

2

 

I can't believe you missed the humour in this - he hit him with an egg and was charged with assault by beating!

[The Guvnor]

1 hour ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

But what if I'm busy

Thought you already lived in a cave.

[Alf Bentley]

11 hours ago, MattP said:

What on earth happens if nothing comes out of the indicative votes with a majority?

 

Last night, I started a long post trying to get my head round all the potential outcomes......but thought better of it, for all our sakes! 

 

Isn't this the gist?

- If May's Deal isn't passed this week, then it's dead and the potential 22nd May extension is gone with it

- If an alternative can be agreed via indicative votes, that could go ahead via a longer extension....but only if we take part in Euro elections and if Parliament persuades/forces Govt to request extension and legislate (probable) and the EU agrees to the extension and potential plan (possible, not certain).

- If nothing is agreed by 12th April, it's No Deal on that date

 

In theory, Parliament could vote to revoke Article 50 before 12th April, but that must be one of the most unlikely scenarios.

Again, in theory, the EU could open up the Withdrawal Agreement, but that is also a highly unlikely scenario.

 

Other stuff could intervene (confidence vote, general election, new interim PM, Govt. of national unity).....but wouldn't affect the fundamentals: May's Deal agreed this week OR Alternative Path agreed by 12th April OR No Deal. Is that right?

[Alf Bentley]

A Brexit point that I read the other day and that doesn't get much attention.....

- The SNP, Plaid, Lib Dems, TIG and Greens all stand to benefit electorally from their pro-referendum stance. That's mainly at Labour's expense - due to its divided Remain/Leave electorate, it would struggle to follow suit except as a last resort.

 

Thus, those hoping for an agreed alternative via indicative votes might need those smaller parties to forego party electoral advantage, unless Labour backs a referendum. Agreement might be impossible....

 

Maybe something like the Kyle/Wilson idea might get cross-party support (May's Deal or another deal approved provisionally, subject to a referendum) or either Labour or the smaller parties might capitulate at the last minute.

Otherwise, if the smaller parties adopt a purist Remain/Referendum stance for party advantage, we could end up with No Deal by default, or with May's Deal surprisingly getting through by the end of this week with Labour support (most of the ERG/DUP will only back it if we look set for a Soft Brexit/Referendum, I presume?).

[Voll Blau]

Mogg's getting a lot of grief this morning for this. Non curae sibi est... 

 

 

[Buce]

21 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

A Brexit point that I read the other day and that doesn't get much attention.....

- The SNP, Plaid, Lib Dems, TIG and Greens all stand to benefit electorally from their pro-referendum stance. That's mainly at Labour's expense - due to its divided Remain/Leave electorate, it would struggle to follow suit except as a last resort.

 

Thus, those hoping for an agreed alternative via indicative votes might need those smaller parties to forego party electoral advantage, unless Labour backs a referendum. Agreement might be impossible....

 

Maybe something like the Kyle/Wilson idea might get cross-party support (May's Deal or another deal approved provisionally, subject to a referendum) or either Labour or the smaller parties might capitulate at the last minute.

Otherwise, if the smaller parties adopt a purist Remain/Referendum stance for party advantage, we could end up with No Deal by default, or with May's Deal surprisingly getting through by the end of this week with Labour support (most of the ERG/DUP will only back it if we look set for a Soft Brexit/Referendum, I presume?).

 

I don't think 'no deal' is even a remote likelihood.

 

If it looks like it's going to happen, I  think there are sufficient numbers of Tories who would put country before party and join a vote of no confidence in the government.

[Guest MattP]

49 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Last night, I started a long post trying to get my head round all the potential outcomes......but thought better of it, for all our sakes! 

 

Isn't this the gist?

- If May's Deal isn't passed this week, then it's dead and the potential 22nd May extension is gone with it

- If an alternative can be agreed via indicative votes, that could go ahead via a longer extension....but only if we take part in Euro elections and if Parliament persuades/forces Govt to request extension and legislate (probable) and the EU agrees to the extension and potential plan (possible, not certain).

- If nothing is agreed by 12th April, it's No Deal on that date

 

In theory, Parliament could vote to revoke Article 50 before 12th April, but that must be one of the most unlikely scenarios.

Again, in theory, the EU could open up the Withdrawal Agreement, but that is also a highly unlikely scenario.

 

Other stuff could intervene (confidence vote, general election, new interim PM, Govt. of national unity).....but wouldn't affect the fundamentals: May's Deal agreed this week OR Alternative Path agreed by 12th April OR No Deal. Is that right?

Well we should look at what can't happen judging by the votes we have seen over the last few weeks. I don't think there is any chance of parliament voting for No Deal and I don't think there is any chance of parliament voting to revoke Article 50.

It's highly doubtful a Canada style would get anywhere the votes needed, it's also unlikely a second referendum would pass given only 84 supported it a few weeks ago and an outright majority of about 335 voted against it even without the whip, so the only logical votes for that are along the lines of a softer Brexit.

Customs Uniom is the obvious answer but common market 2.0 looks possible as well if the deal doesn't get through, will get support from labour and most of the Tory backbenches if push comes to shove, Although the deal is alive again now though if people like Rees-Mogg are prepared to support it - if that is the case he must genuinely believe this is now a choice between the deal presented and no Brexit at all.

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I don't think 'no deal' is even a remote likelihood.

 

If it looks like it's going to happen, I  think there are sufficient numbers of Tories who would put country before party and join a vote of no confidence in the government.

 

Would that necessarily stop No Deal, though?

 

If May's Deal is not passed this week, then Brexit Day is due to be 12th April.

 

For it to be later, by 12th April our Govt would have to ask the EU for a longer extension, agreeing to take part in Euro elections, and the EU would have to agree.

Now, if our Govt did that, the EU would probably (not definitely) agree that extension....but would our Govt make that request?

 

As I understand it, if a no-confidence vote is passed, parliament has 14 days to see if someone else can form a govt commanding the confidence of the house. It could be past 12th April before an election was even called.

We'd be relying on May or some interim PM (Liddington?) making that request, wouldn't we? Likewise, Article 50 could be revoked before 12th April but that would be massively controversial and would also require the Govt to act or be somehow forced to act.

 

I hope No Deal is prevented, obviously, and there's a clear majority in parliament opposed to it......but it could still happen by accident, I think. The EU see it as the most likely outcome and I don't think they're complete idiots.

[Guest MattP]

No Deal can only really happen now if the EU decides we go out on No Deal - and they don't want that as we saw when Tusk climbed down last week.

I'd be surprised if they were that desperate that we didn't partake in European Elections they would allow it to come to that - but I suppose you never know.

[Strokes]

21 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I don't think 'no deal' is even a remote likelihood.

 

If it looks like it's going to happen, I  think there are sufficient numbers of Tories who would put country before party and join a vote of no confidence in the government.

I can’t believe it’s come to this, @Buce is counting on tories to do the right thing. It’s official, the worlds gone mad 

[davieG]

Breast ironing awareness 'needed in school'

 

Who knew?

 

Breast ironing awareness should be made part of the mandatory school curriculum to protect young girls from abuse, the National Education Union has said.

The practice involves ironing a girl's chest with hot objects to delay breasts from growing, so she does not attract male attention.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47695169

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

No Deal can only really happen now if the EU decides we go out on No Deal - and they don't want that as we saw when Tusk climbed down last week.

I'd be surprised if they were that desperate that we didn't partake in European Elections they would allow it to come to that - but I suppose you never know.

 

But to avoid No Deal, we have to either agree an acceptable solution (May's Deal or an acceptable alternative) or request a longer extension. Otherwise, we leave with No Deal on 12th April.

 

If we don't agree an acceptable solution before then and don't request a longer extension, there's nothing the EU can do to prevent No Deal on 12th April, even assuming it wants to. Am I right or am I missing something?

 

It's not just about the Euro elections, either. If we agree an acceptable solution that requires us to take part in the Euro elections, I'm sure they'd agree that. But I cannot imagine them accepting the situation just dragging on interminably, dominating EU politics forever with no sign of a solution on the horizon. They have plenty of other problems to focus on, so need to see light at the end of the tunnel to agree an extension, surely?