Alf Bentley Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 39 minutes ago, FIF said: Thanks So does that mean that the agreed May's option then wouldn't be the agreed option and could be changed? This also raises the questions of why non extreme brexiteers would then vote for the deal and also how do the extreme brexiteers know that an extreme brexiteer would become leader? The Withdrawal Agreement would not change (leaving EU via 21-month transition period, divorce settlement, reciprocal rights of EU/UK citizens, Irish border backstop solution). The Political Declaration on the Future EU/UK Relationship COULD be changed as it's a vague declaration to be firmed up in negotiations over the next 2-3+ years. Hard/Extreme Brexiteers hope to use those negotiations to help establish the UK as a deregulated, low-tax, low-spend nation that is profitable for global big business (at the expense of its people and society): ensure UK fully outside SM/CU, and slash and burn as many social, employment & environmental regulations as possible, so that UK is a competitive base for business in international markets through low labour costs, low corporate tax, deregulated standards, easy hire-and-fire etc. Non-extreme Brexiteers support it because they want to honour the referendum vote and/or want the UK to be more independent of the EU. Maybe they don't recognise the likely economic reality that, as an isolated medium-sized nation, shafting the British people/society to benefit corporate profits is probably the only way of making Brexit an economic success? Alternatively, maybe they believe that the more extreme crew won't necessarily be able to control the agenda to force through their deregulated, ultra-free-market ideas? It's almost certain that the next Tory leader/PM will be more Hard Brexit because of the leadership election system and party membership: - Tory MPs vote for the top 2 candidates, which are then put to the party membership. The Hard Brexit crew probably have the numbers to ensure a Hard Brexit candidate is one of the two - Party membership is massively pro-Hard Brexit and will almost certainly elect the Hardest Brexiteer of the 2 names put to them (This only didn't happen in 2016 because they were so busy stabbing one another in the back that Gove, Boris et al were all eliminated, Leadsom became the Hard Brexit candidate....then withdrew as she was out of her depth, giving the more moderate May a free run).
fuchsntf Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 1 hour ago, FIF said: I'm obviously thick but I still don't get this. Why does May quitting for an unknown leader make the Deal acceptable? Surely the deal which cannot then be changed is either acceptable or not and May is either acceptable or not. They are independant and if people don't want May they can get rid of her whenever they want and if the deal is acceptable, May being there changes nothing. By not voting for an alternative the MPS are voting for leaving without a DEAL. I'm sure they are wise enough to understand that. A new referendum would certainly involve rounds or transferable votes - not sure what the argument on here is about. Shows how awkward the Brexit campaign is...I sort of agree with you. nobody in Govt have put in ideas of suggestions,that their own party members understand,nor more importantly anything now joe public can get their heads around I don't like any of those 8 pts. I don't like a PM,saying follow m y suggestions of I quit.... the Govt,has to vote,not on a person,but the ideas,suggestions that might/might not,be on the table... it's immaterial who is head of party and Govt...a leader is only the spokesperson for any given party,not an elected dictator!!! The deal is what we have to live with,and will be signed on International laws...The rhetoric ,the speaches,the debates,the end offerings,have not been Presented so the electorate could really understand 10% of what was/is on the table,with ideas of the final & future consequences.... So complicated,that the real simple Brexit desire have been lost in the fog...(hey and I was a remainer)...
The Guvnor Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 1 hour ago, Captain... said: Re: keeping the status quo. Because some people voted leave to get such a deal, some people wanted us to leave the EU but keep our borders open to people and trade just have greater sovereignty. That’s the whole point about the leave vote not being prescriptive. It was a vote for everyone who wanted to see the EU burn to those who think that the status quo is pretty good but we would benefit from taking a small step back and not letting the EU have final say over everything. Sorry but I don't agree , most people voting leave would have seen from Camerons attempt at 'small step reform' that the EU 'were not for turning' to coin a phrase, so remaining and expecting change was cloud cuckoo land. Any second referendum with a final deal which is close to remain against a remain vote gives Parliament what they wanted and they don't end up with bloodied hands.
RonnieTodger Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 This is honestly ****ing mental. May has essentially said that yes my deal is shit, but I'm so shit that I'm willing to step down, as long as you vote for my shitty deal.
AKCJ Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 2 hours ago, MattP said: The problem with that is it encourages a Remain dominated government and parliament to get a deal so bad the public have to vote to Remain. Then have that second referendum after a general election.
Foxxed Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 32 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said: This is honestly ****ing mental. May has essentially said that yes my deal is shit, but I'm so shit that I'm willing to step down, as long as you vote for my shitty deal. 19 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said: Yup. The whole thing is a mess from start to never ending finish.
Alf Bentley Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 Just occurs to me that if we end up getting a longer extension, we'll have 2 sets of elections in May: - Local elections scheduled for 2nd May - European elections would be on 23rd May It's now also looking distinctly possible that we'll end up having an early general election. Several of the experts on Newsnight yesterday thought that was where we were heading, as May's Deal wouldn't pass, no alternative deal would pass but Parliament wouldn't accept either No Deal or a second referendum. I presume the EU would agree an extension for a general election - but would insist we took part in the Euro elections. No way would Parliament want 3 sets of elections. But, as I understand it, the minimum time from calling to staging a general election is about 5 weeks.....and 5 weeks before the local elections is today! I'd guess that means that we could end up with a general election and European elections happening simultaneously on 23rd May? Over to Brenda from Bristol....
Captain... Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 42 minutes ago, The Guvnor said: Sorry but I don't agree , most people voting leave would have seen from Camerons attempt at 'small step reform' that the EU 'were not for turning' to coin a phrase, so remaining and expecting change was cloud cuckoo land. Any second referendum with a final deal which is close to remain against a remain vote gives Parliament what they wanted and they don't end up with bloodied hands. The small step back is still leaving the EU but having close ties, free trade and freedom of movement. Just a greater say on governing ourselves. You are right that is not a majority it could be a very small amount, say 5% but the difference between leave and remain is a 2% swing so 5% is significant.
Voll Blau Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 2 hours ago, AKCJ said: Then have that second referendum after a general election. We've already had a general election after the referendum in which Leavers had the chance to vote for explicitly Leave-supporting candidates en masse if they were genuinely concerned that Remain-supporting MPs would try to derail the process. Guess what? They didn't. It's just another excuse for some to add to the list as to why this whole thing hasn't worked out as perfectly as they believed it would in their minds.
Guest MattP Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 28 minutes ago, Voll Blau said: We've already had a general election after the referendum in which Leavers had the chance to vote for explicitly Leave-supporting candidates en masse if they were genuinely concerned that Remain-supporting MPs would try to derail the process. Guess what? They didn't. It's just another excuse for some to add to the list as to why this whole thing has worked out as perfectly as they believed it would in their minds. We'd get some clarity though in these new manifestos. The Tories would have to come to a settled position about what kind of Brexit they intend to deliver and Labour would have to stop pretending to be a Leave party in the north and a Remain party in the south. Providing May doesn't lead I'm well up another election - Corbyn is there to be smashed by a half decent debater who actually wants to do it.
Beechey Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 58 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Just occurs to me that if we end up getting a longer extension, we'll have 2 sets of elections in May: - Local elections scheduled for 2nd May - European elections would be on 23rd May It's now also looking distinctly possible that we'll end up having an early general election. Several of the experts on Newsnight yesterday thought that was where we were heading, as May's Deal wouldn't pass, no alternative deal would pass but Parliament wouldn't accept either No Deal or a second referendum. I presume the EU would agree an extension for a general election - but would insist we took part in the Euro elections. No way would Parliament want 3 sets of elections. But, as I understand it, the minimum time from calling to staging a general election is about 5 weeks.....and 5 weeks before the local elections is today! I'd guess that means that we could end up with a general election and European elections happening simultaneously on 23rd May? Over to Brenda from Bristol.... Well, turnout for the locals would be unusually high, at least
Alf Bentley Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 27 minutes ago, Beechey said: Well, turnout for the locals would be unusually high, at least Unless a general election is called in the next couple of days, I don't think it could be done with the local elections (less than 5 weeks). Same day as the Euro elections (23rd May) would be possible, if we're taking part.....DK if it would be advisable, though, re. potential public order issues. Seems as if May plans to put something before Parliament tomorrow - DK what. If her deal isn't passed tomorrow, then we're down to either No Deal on 12th April or a request for a longer extension, with a purpose and Euro elections, as I understand it....
AKCJ Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 The thought of having a vote on the EU parliamentary elections on the same day as an EU Referendum is quite funny.
bovril Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 29 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said: I can't stop watching this.
Beechey Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 1 hour ago, bovril said: I can't stop watching this. I'm on viewing number 6 already
Foxxed Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 I take it the withdrawal agreement will pass on Friday? I assume there's a majority for that? "Get in the car - we're going." "Where we going?" "It doesn't matter. Perhaps nowhere. But get in the car."
AKCJ Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 DUP confirming they won't be abstaining, they'll be voting no to MV3. Labour whipping against it too apparently.
Foxxed Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 9 minutes ago, AKCJ said: DUP confirming they won't be abstaining, they'll be voting no to MV3. Labour whipping against it too apparently. Tomorrow will be on the divorce bill, backstop and citizens rights - not other aspects of future EU relations. Is that the MV3 Labour and the DUP are voting against?
Legend_in_blue Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 It won't pass through. She doesn't have the numbers.
AKCJ Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 3 minutes ago, Foxxed said: Tomorrow will be on the divorce bill, backstop and citizens rights - not other aspects of future EU relations. Is that the MV3 Labour and the DUP are voting against? Sorry misread, DUP and Labour are voting against tomorrow's vote.
Legend_in_blue Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 It will go the way of a long extension and hopefully the people will have a final say when it is brought back to the people. In the meantime, Farage can keep his mouth shut.
Guest MattP Posted 28 March 2019 Posted 28 March 2019 This is procedural prestidigitation of the highest order and I have no idea why they thought it would sneak through like this. If the Customs Union indicative vote fails Monday it be an accidental No Deal.
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