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Leicester_Loyal

The Politics Thread 2020

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12 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

I understand and although I can see the potential effects of what DC did, we should be loathe to attribute all lockdown misdemeanours to his actions. Unlike the media at large (or small!), we should not (in my opinion) seek to act as a megaphone for outliers, we should always seek balance and unfortunately, balance is a very difficult thing to achieve during periods of outrage.

 

Good chat as always :thumbup:

I agree, and I still think the majority will continue to do the right thing - in spite of the anger they feel. I hope so anyway, all of our futures count on it.

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2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

It is a non issue, it really is.  One man, not elected but an adviser, made one trip on Easter Sunday in which the motive and the trip itself are questionable.  Move on ffs.

 

Meanwhile, big things are happening:

The RNLI has decided to only put lifeguards (young fit people almost without exception) on 70 instead of their usual 240 beaches this year.  On balance I would argue that this is more likley to result in additional drownings than fulling staffing the 240 beaches would in COVID-19 deaths of their lifeguards.

The numbers are moving entirely in the right direction despite the fact that people have undoubtedly been out and interacting more in the past 4 weeks than the previous 4 weeks.

We have the highest death rate per capita in the world (agains those with good stats) so we need to understand why - this will come again and we need to be prepared.

The economy is going to take a big hit very soon - what are we going to do to accelerate opening up before the entire Leisure sector is ****ed;  Summer has to happen - make it!

 

 

The RNLI face a massive downturn in fund raising this year as do a lot of charities. If its too early for teachers and kids to go back into school it is too early for a life guard to perform mouth to mouth to save lives. 

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2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Numerous MPs left Westminster and went home, some of them also came back again, during lockdown, when it was possible to connect remotely.  No one is mentioning this...  But Cummings??  HE MUST GO NOW!

Devil's advocate, did those MPs suffer from symptoms or in direct contact with a symptoms sufferer? The source there is so random twitter account. 

 

I note JRM has pushed for parliament to be back within House of Commons

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10 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

I note JRM has pushed for parliament to be back within House of Commons

Isn't that just to stop him producing an endless stream of offspring?

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1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Economic response to this crisis has been great.

The economic response has been the only real strength of the general response. The question now is how the government pays it back; whether it's by austerity or increased taxation, and who bears that burden, it will be a huge test of Sunak's mettle. It's tough to dislike someone who's giving money away after all.

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22 minutes ago, Bilo said:

The economic response has been the only real strength of the general response. The question now is how the government pays it back; whether it's by austerity or increased taxation, and who bears that burden, it will be a huge test of Sunak's mettle. It's tough to dislike someone who's giving money away after all.

It'll be a combination of both.

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7 minutes ago, Bilo said:

Quite. And that's when the public stop putting him on a pedestal.

At that point it will be gallows I fear.

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57 minutes ago, Bilo said:

The economic response has been the only real strength of the general response. The question now is how the government pays it back; whether it's by austerity or increased taxation, and who bears that burden, it will be a huge test of Sunak's mettle. It's tough to dislike someone who's giving money away after all.

 

34 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It'll be a combination of both.

The Treasury will do neither since it will be recognised that  politically and economically both are unfeasible. The occurring debts will be parked and managed with monetary wizardry. 

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12 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

We were told the Sunderland one would be the first one to go, which thankfully isn't the case.

Unfortunately, that's not the same thing as it not going at all as has been inferred by some. 

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12 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

 

The Treasury will do neither since it will be recognised that  politically and economically both are unfeasible. The occurring debts will be parked and managed with monetary wizardry. 

The problem is that increased debt is not compatible with the lowered credit rating, and subsequent increased cost of borrowing, that'll come with a No Deal Brexit and refusal to pay the 'divorce bill.' 

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1 hour ago, Bilo said:

The problem is that increased debt is not compatible with the lowered credit rating, and subsequent increased cost of borrowing, that'll come with a No Deal Brexit and refusal to pay the 'divorce bill.' 

That you are still talking about Brexit when we are reaching 150% debt to GDP and -30% GDP shrinkage is baffling. Sorry.

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20 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

That you are still talking about Brexit when we are reaching 150% debt to GDP and -30% GDP shrinkage is baffling. Sorry.

Because Brexit is going to make it a sight worse. 

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1 hour ago, Bilo said:

The problem is that increased debt is not compatible with the lowered credit rating, and subsequent increased cost of borrowing, that'll come with a No Deal Brexit and refusal to pay the 'divorce bill.' 

We've already payed the divorce bill haven't we, or at least agreed to it in the terms of our leaving this year. It's the future relationship we're negotiating now.

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30 minutes ago, bovril said:

We've already payed the divorce bill haven't we, or at least agreed to it in the terms of our leaving this year. It's the future relationship we're negotiating now.

Nothings agreed until everything is agreed. The withdrawal agreement needs the trade agreement, to be fully binding.

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1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Nothings agreed until everything is agreed. The withdrawal agreement needs the trade agreement, to be fully binding.

 

That's incorrect, isn't it?

 

The Political Declaration on the Future EU/UK Relationship is not binding, but the Withdrawal Agreement is - and is not dependent on any trade agreement, that's my understanding? :dunno:

 

There's no obligation on either side to sign any trade or future relationship agreement - and the stuff about "level playing field" and alignment can absolutely be ditched (and probably will be) as Johnson had that moved from the WA to the PD.

 

I'm sure there's scope for legal disputes over the meaning of specific clauses of the WA or whether certain sums are payable, but it is binding on both sides now, as I understand it, covering:

- Divorce settlement (although that is due to be paid over many years, not all up front)

- Citizens' rights

- Irish border

- Extension of EU terms, conditions & rights until December 2020

 

I'm happy to be shown that I'm wrong about that as I've semi-switched off from Brexit in recent months and am an old git who forgets things but I think that's the gist?

(Won't enter into any long debate here, though, as I think the Brexit thread is still open for that).

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51 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

SAGE advisors going on record it’s too early to open up. Not a great look. AGAIN 

They're interested in halting the virus, not the economy, so they're obviously going to say that, surely?

 

We'll all be eating out of bins if we don't start going back to some form of normality soon, we'll be paying this off for our entire lifetimes.

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