The Politics Thread 2020

[CosbehFox]

17 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

They're interested in halting the virus, not the economy, so they're obviously going to say that, surely?

 

We'll all be eating out of bins if we don't start going back to some form of normality soon, we'll be paying this off for our entire lifetimes.

So what happens if a second wave comes? For the sake of a week or two.
 

We are beginning our easing at a lot higher basis than other European countries. 
 

We still have a committed furlough scheme as always planned (regardless of lockdown easing) and self employed claim back scheme for another month. 
 

 

Edited 29 May 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[Leicester_Loyal]

35 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

So what happens if a second wave comes? For the sake of a week or two.
 

We are beginning our easing at a lot higher basis than other European countries. 
 

We still have a committed furlough scheme as always planned (regardless of lockdown easing) and self employed claim back scheme for another month. 
 

 

I hardly think a week will make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

What countries? We're probably the last to open stuff up.

• Germany - Football has started again, all shops are open (some have been since April), schools open for some children
• Italy - Bars and restaurants open, gyms and swimming pools open, hairdressers open
• France - Bars and restaurants opening next week, schools open, beaches open
• Belgium (the one we're closest compared to) - Shops open, schools open, hairdressers open
• Netherlands - They'll be back to normal as of next week
• Spain - Bars with terraces open, without opening 10th June along with restaurants, football starting in 11 days, no quarantine from 1st July, schools opened partially last week.

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

America is just mental isn't it?!

[leicsmac]

16 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

America is just mental isn't it?!

I would say that democracies and republics get the government they deserve but that wouldn't be fair to the decent people who are having to live with the way things are now under this administration.

[Smudge]

23 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I would say that democracies and republics get the government they deserve but that wouldn't be fair to the decent people who are having to live with the way things are now under this administration.

On reflection ty

 

 

Edited 31 May 2020 by Smudge

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I hardly think a week will make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

What countries? We're probably the last to open stuff up.

• Germany - Football has started again, all shops are open (some have been since April), schools open for some children
• Italy - Bars and restaurants open, gyms and swimming pools open, hairdressers open
• France - Bars and restaurants opening next week, schools open, beaches open
• Belgium (the one we're closest compared to) - Shops open, schools open, hairdressers open
• Netherlands - They'll be back to normal as of next week
• Spain - Bars with terraces open, without opening 10th June along with restaurants, football starting in 11 days, no quarantine from 1st July, schools opened partially last week.

 

 

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=deu&areas=swe&areas=fra&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=deaths

 

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=deu&areas=swe&areas=fra&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=1&values=cases

 

These links are interactive, so you can play around with them yourself to select cumulative, per million, etc. No question the UK is not at the same stage as others.

 

Edited 30 May 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Guest Markyblue]

Anyone who thinks these tiny steps forward are too early thats fair enough,  stay indoors,  dont meet any other households, keep your kids off school,  its really your decision nobody is forcing you to do anything. 

[Strokes]

6 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That's incorrect, isn't it?

 

The Political Declaration on the Future EU/UK Relationship is not binding, but the Withdrawal Agreement is - and is not dependent on any trade agreement, that's my understanding? 

 

There's no obligation on either side to sign any trade or future relationship agreement - and the stuff about "level playing field" and alignment can absolutely be ditched (and probably will be) as Johnson had that moved from the WA to the PD.

 

I'm sure there's scope for legal disputes over the meaning of specific clauses of the WA or whether certain sums are payable, but it is binding on both sides now, as I understand it, covering:

- Divorce settlement (although that is due to be paid over many years, not all up front)

- Citizens' rights

- Irish border

- Extension of EU terms, conditions & rights until December 2020

 

I'm happy to be shown that I'm wrong about that as I've semi-switched off from Brexit in recent months and am an old git who forgets things but I think that's the gist?

(Won't enter into any long debate here, though, as I think the Brexit thread is still open for that).

That’s how I understood it from listening to someone be from the ERG, maybe I’ve misunderstood too.

Ill have a look later see if I can find anything to back it up.

[Legend_in_blue]

This whole week of raising lockdown measures is akin to a domino effect.  

 

It all started on Monday when Boris tried to take the heat off Cummings by announcing school details which were originally planned for Thursday.  Tuesday then follows with more lifts to the lockdown measures and everything appears to have gathered pace ever since.

 

I'm now reading reports this morning that the lockdown measures are for political reasons rather than those based on what the scientific evidence is showing.

 

Boris reiterates that all of the measures are made based on what the science tells us at the time - tbh I couldn't care less how he spins it because he cannot be trusted.  He just makes stuff up to suit the moment.  The only guys who are believable and who come across as honest are Valance, Whitty and Sunak.  The rest cannot be trusted.

 

 

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

10 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

America is just mental isn't it?!

And it's only just starting.

[foxile5]

5 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

And it's only just starting.

Late stage capitalism collapsing. 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

And it's only just starting.

Hopefully the end of the year will see the end of it. Or at least less.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

5 hours ago, Markyblue said:

Anyone who thinks these tiny steps forward are too early thats fair enough,  stay indoors,  dont meet any other households, keep your kids off school,  its really your decision nobody is forcing you to do anything. 

Wish I could rep this more than once.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

6 hours ago, Markyblue said:

Anyone who thinks these tiny steps forward are too early thats fair enough,  stay indoors,  dont meet any other households, keep your kids off school,  its really your decision nobody is forcing you to do anything. 

 

I understand and share the desire to release lockdown as quickly as reasonably possible. But part of my fear of relaxing it too quickly is that we end up spending longer under lockdown due to further waves of infection.

 

That's partly pure selfishness on my part: I want to get around the country (possibly further afield) in Aug/Sept, having a holiday break and visiting friends/family - and I want my daughter to be able to attend her new college in Sept.

If the infection rate is still high then or there's been a second wave, such movements could be too high-risk - or we might all be back under strict lockdown.

 

Partly, though, it's an economic concern. I'm no Tory but I approve of the support measures adopted by Sunak. But he's rightly pointed out that they cannot continue forever - and they're being wound down Aug-Oct. There's already going to be carnage in certain sectors (hospitality, aviation etc.), but a lot of businesses and jobs in other sectors should hopefully survive. Can you imagine if there's a big surge in infections, triggering a further lockdown and loss of income for businesses and employees just when the Govt is withdrawing its furlough & self-employed schemes? That could make the economic, social & unemployment crisis massively worse.

 

Everything might turn out fine. But it seems a very high-risk strategy if you look at the graphs supplied by @WigstonWanderer.

 

The problem with your post is that it doesn't recognise how the actions of some members of the community can indirectly and unintentionally have a negative impact on others.

 

Matter of opinion, ultimately, but with a lot at stake. So I question what seems a high-risk strategy when we still have 2000 recorded new infections per day, an r rate close to 1 and a tracing system only just set up and unproven.

My problem is less with the steps taken, more with the message a lot of people might be hearing - "things are returning to normal". The complicated nature of the changes & the Cummings debacle are both very unhelpful in that regard.

 

 

 

 

[Carl the Llama]

13 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

 

Snowflake.

[Guest SO1]

13 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I would say that democracies and republics get the government they deserve but that wouldn't be fair to the decent people who are having to live with the way things are now under this administration.

Trumps an idiot. I get it. The issues are so far beyond politics and have been going on for decades/centuries.

[worth_the_wait]

Apart from the last question, i thought the daily briefing today was pretty good.

 

Mostly sensible questions ... reasonably well answered by the minister.  Very detailed answers by JVT.

 

JVT made the important point many times ... we must continue with social distancing, even though measures are being slowly relaxed.

[oxford blue]

12 hours ago, Strokes said:

That’s how I understood it from listening to someone be from the ERG, maybe I’ve misunderstood too.

Ill have a look later see if I can find anything to back it up.

Alf is right: the UK leaves on 31.12.20 unless there is an extension which is what the EU want (who also want the UK contributions - even more so now!)

[Strokes]

13 minutes ago, oxford blue said:

Alf is right: the UK leaves on 31.12.20 unless there is an extension which is what the EU want (who also want the UK contributions - even more so now!)

The divorce settlement I understood was not definite until the future agreement was achieved. I definitely heard that...

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, oxford blue said:

Alf is right: the UK leaves on 31.12.20 unless there is an extension which is what the EU want (who also want the UK contributions - even more so now!)

 

Technically we left on 31st Jan, which is why we no longer have MEPs, a Commissioner or a place at EU Council meetings.

But we're in a transition period with the same rights and obligations as before.....and the transition period is due to end 31/12 unless extended by mutual agreement, as you say.

 

Officially, if the UK wants to extend transition (unlikely), we have to request that by 30th June....though I imagine ways would be found if both parties wanted to extend at a later date (unlikely).

 

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

The divorce settlement I understood was not definite until the future agreement was achieved. I definitely heard that...

 

I've had a quick look and can't find anything to support this. Only thing I found was Barnier in 2018 saying that a future trade agreement was more likely if divorce settlement was agreed and paid.

 

The divorce settlement comes within the Withdrawal Agreement: i.e. UK withdrawal from EU, which happened on 31st Jan.

The WA has been signed off by everyone in UK and EU so is already in force.

It would be a bit weird if a treaty was signed by everyone, it's principal aim was implemented (UK leaving EU) but the major financial clause was open to negotiation against a future agreement that might not even happen..... 

 

Anyway, if you find anything to support what you heard, chuck it in the Brexit thread as I'd be interested.....

 

As I understand it:

- WA (including divorce settlement) all signed off, but not all implemented yet due to the transition period

- Political Declaration signed but not binding, just a declaration of intent 

- Agreement on Future Relations / Trade Deal might or might not happen (sounds increasingly unlikely) & extension might or might not happen (very unlikely).....but none of that affects the WA, which is final.  

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.opinium.co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/

 

Batten down the hatches! Stan get the tissue paper ready! Labour surge incoming!

[st albans fox]

22 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.opinium.co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/

 

Batten down the hatches! Stan get the tissue paper ready! Labour surge incoming!

it’s a tad early for a surge .......by around 3 1/2 years .......... 

[StanSP]

34 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.opinium.co.uk/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-28th-may/

 

Batten down the hatches! Stan get the tissue paper ready! Labour surge incoming!

The sexy politics show is coming to town!

[l444ry]

16 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

it’s a tad early for a surge .......by around 3 1/2 years .......... 

Starmer can afford to just sit and watch CoCo the Clown and his bunch of incompetent muppets implode. We have Brexit to come yet and the same Covid bunch have their greasy fingers into that as well.