Coronavirus Thread

[Legend_in_blue]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

35200 which is just for England, whereas Vallance referred to the whole of the UK. Crudely, multiplying that by 1.2 the UK's pupolation is ~1.2x England's) gives ~42000. Which is likely an underestimation given that the ONS doesn't include institutional settings such as hospitals, care homes, and student accommodation. 

 

We have a suite of info now for around the 15th just in England:

ONS 35200 13th October

REACT 45000 5th October

Cambridge MRC 47000 12th October 

 

By the middle of next week we'll have hospitalisations to back-of-a-fag packet extrapolate from and then another couple of weeks to do the same for deaths. But either way the Vallance mocking doesn't look too wise.

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/22268/

 

Excess deaths currently 1% higher than expected.  Conclusion made is that many of these have moved away from the hospitals and into people's homes.

 

We'll see in two weeks time but I wouldn't let Vallance off the hook just yet.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Was in a shop today where we saw a till attendant pull his mask down and cough into his gloved hands, pull his mask up and carry on. Didn't sanitise his gloves or change them.

 

I genuinely believe he thought this was okay because he was wearing gloves. 

 

Unfortunately, it was also the till we'd just unloaded our shopping on. My wife insisted we wipe everything down with wipes as we unloaded out of our bags at home, probably sensibly.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Was in a shop today where we saw a till attendant pull his mask down and cough into his gloved hands, pull his mask up and carry on. Didn't sanitise his gloves or change them.

 

I genuinely believe he thought this was okay because he was wearing gloves. 

 

Unfortunately, it was also the till we'd just unloaded our shopping on. My wife insisted we wipe everything down with wipes as we unloaded out of our bags at home, probably sensibly.

 

Did you not challenge him?

[DennisNedry]

My 81 year old grandmother told my parents today that she's coming over for Christmas come what may. She seems to have reached the point where it's worth risking her health (and life, even) rather than living miserably in social isolation. I'm sure there must be plenty of other elderly/vulnerable people who feel this way.

 

On a different and more positive note, I feel that we are seeing closer to the 'true' death rate now. Looking at the last 7 days in the UK there have been a total of 141,741 cases and 1,142 deaths. This gives a 0.81% death rate, which I still think if anything is still slightly higher than the reality.

Edited 23 October 2020 by DennisNedry

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

In England, Covid-19 was the 19th most common cause of death, and in Wales it was 24th.

 

This surprising stat was for last month. 

[st albans fox]

16 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

My 81 year old grandmother told my parents today that she's coming over for Christmas come what may. She seems to have reached the point where it's worth risking her health (and life, even) rather than living miserably in social isolation. I'm sure there must be plenty of other elderly/vulnerable people who feel this way.

 

On a different and more positive note, I feel that we are seeing closer to the 'true' death rate now. Looking at the last 7 days in the UK there have been a total of 141,741 cases and 1,142 deaths. This gives a 0.81% death rate, which I still think if anything is still slightly higher than the reality.

Deaths are a lag from cases though - the 1142 deaths should be analysed against the number of cases two - three weeks ago. 
 

2 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

In England, Covid-19 was the 19th most common cause of death, and in Wales it was 24th.

 

This surprising stat was for last month. 

How many covid deaths were there in September?   600 ?  - It will be hugely more for October and even more November - i asked the question before deaths increased - how many daily deaths are acceptable to keep the country ‘open’?  however, yet again, it needs stressing that we are trying to stop the NHS being overwhelmed more than we are trying to stop people dying from covid - the latter is unavoidable .......

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Deaths are a lag from cases though - the 1142 deaths should be analysed against the number of cases two - three weeks ago. 
 

How many covid deaths were there in September?   600 ?  - It will be hugely more for October and even more November - i asked the question before deaths increased - how many daily deaths are acceptable to keep the country ‘open’?  however, yet again, it needs stressing that we are trying to stop the NHS being overwhelmed more than we are trying to stop people dying from covid - the latter is unavoidable .......

Of course there will be, every year there are more deaths in the autumn/winter.

Please don’t feel you need to stress anything to me btw, I found the stat interesting and surprising that is all.

[Rain King]

Just had a notification from the app saying I've been close to someone who has tested positive. Is there any way to find out the location where the exposure was?

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Just had a notification from the app saying I've been close to someone who has tested positive. Is there any way to find out the location where the exposure was?

I wouldn’t worry - you’ll either get another one shortly to say dont worry about it or you won’t get anything. Unless it tells you that you need to isolate then I guess you don’t ........it could also just be the same glitch that millions have had 

 

the app doesn’t keep track of where contacts were made , just that they were made and how long for  ..........

 

 

[Rain King]

Just now, st albans fox said:

I wouldn’t worry - you’ll either get another one shortly to say dont worry about it or you won’t get anything. Unless it tells you that you need to isolate then I guess you don’t ........it could also just be the same glitch that millions have had 

 

the app doesn’t keep track of where contacts were made , just that they were made and how long for  ..........

 

 

Ah would be handy to know where it was. Bit useless that.

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

Day 3 after positive test, still no smell and now no taste either. Occasional coughing is now a nasty chesty constant cough which is very unpleasant but not too debilitating.

 No fatigue, aching or temperature today, so hopefully it won’t be too long before I’ve fully recovered. 

[Pliskin]

I fail to see the point in sifting through shit for a spec of the virus? 

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

I fail to see the point in sifting through shit for a spec of the virus? 

Really?  - it’s a great idea.  Tells the authorities where the virus actually is and isn’t (and in what concentration) without having to test.  We all have a sh1t every day !  Plus as winter draws on, it will also show where the flu is rather than covid ....

[Trav Le Bleu]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Did you not challenge him?

Is there any point?

 

The last time I challenged someone for bad behaviour in a supermarket, the security threatened to throw me out.

[Costock_Fox]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Did you not challenge him?

I’m not sure a competition to see who could be the biggest greb is what he was getting at.

[Trav Le Bleu]

2 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

I’m not sure a competition to see who could be the biggest greb is what he was getting at.

Indeed.

 

And besides, I won.

[Rain King]

45 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I wouldn’t worry - you’ll either get another one shortly to say dont worry about it or you won’t get anything. Unless it tells you that you need to isolate then I guess you don’t ........it could also just be the same glitch that millions have had 

 

the app doesn’t keep track of where contacts were made , just that they were made and how long for  ..........

 

 

Got a message shortly after saying no risk so no need to do anything. However, my Mrs doesn't trust it and  has cancelled our weekend plans and wants us to isolate. She's ****ing mental. She can isolate on her own.

[fuchsntf]

42 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Got a message shortly after saying no risk so no need to do anything. However, my Mrs doesn't trust it and  has cancelled our weekend plans and wants us to isolate. She's ****ing mental. She can isolate on her own.

In Sickness & health,in Good times & bad......

[dsr-burnley]

3 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

My 81 year old grandmother told my parents today that she's coming over for Christmas come what may. She seems to have reached the point where it's worth risking her health (and life, even) rather than living miserably in social isolation. I'm sure there must be plenty of other elderly/vulnerable people who feel this way.

 

On a different and more positive note, I feel that we are seeing closer to the 'true' death rate now. Looking at the last 7 days in the UK there have been a total of 141,741 cases and 1,142 deaths. This gives a 0.81% death rate, which I still think if anything is still slightly higher than the reality.

I think your grandmother has probably realised that she is risking her life simply by being 81 years old.  When you're 20, giving up everything you enjoy doing for a year is not a high proportion of the rest of your life.  When you're 81, it is; especially as quality of life tends to deteriorate quite fast at that age.  When you're old, the best year (health and mobility-wise) of the rest of your life is usually the current year.

 

As for deaths-to-cases ratio, it's still important to remember that confirmed cases and actual cases are very different numbers.  Look at these football clubs like Orient where they didn't know they'd got it until someone paid for tests and found 17 had it.  There are still plenty of undetected and unsuspected tests.

[dsr-burnley]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Deaths are a lag from cases though - the 1142 deaths should be analysed against the number of cases two - three weeks ago. 
 

How many covid deaths were there in September?   600 ?  - It will be hugely more for October and even more November - i asked the question before deaths increased - how many daily deaths are acceptable to keep the country ‘open’?  however, yet again, it needs stressing that we are trying to stop the NHS being overwhelmed more than we are trying to stop people dying from covid - the latter is unavoidable .......

1,500 to 2,000 daily deaths is the norm for winter.  That has been deemed to be acceptable in the past.  

 

But assuming you're asking specifically about covid deaths, that's a tricky question.  If you accept the conclusions of this survey that says "austerity" cost 130,000 lives, and we assume that the current economic crisis has the same sort of effect, then you will accept tens of thousands more covid deaths in exchange for keeping thje economy open.

 

And then of course you have to factor in future costs.  If unemployment rises by 2 million and retirement age goes up to 70, then obviously that's only money - can it be weighed against people's lives?  Well, yes,  That's what governments do.  If saving lives was all that government was about, driving would be banned and road deaths abolished.  Governments also have to think about general health, and yes, prosperity.  Rich countries have longer life expectancy than poor countries.

 

They need to do a lot more research about what would have happened.  In Brazil they had no lockdown at all and excess deaths April-June well below ours; in Peru they had the strictest lockdown of all and the highest death rate, albeit delayed until July.  How do we know what would have happened if we had done it differently? 

 

Here's an answer to your question - the "acceptable" number of deaths to keep the economy open is at least as high as the number of deaths that will happen if we keep locked down.  All they need do is provide the answer to hiw many will happen in lockdown, and we have a starting point for the answer.

[Sampson]

39 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

1,500 to 2,000 daily deaths is the norm for winter.  That has been deemed to be acceptable in the past.  

 

But assuming you're asking specifically about covid deaths, that's a tricky question.  If you accept the conclusions of this survey that says "austerity" cost 130,000 lives, and we assume that the current economic crisis has the same sort of effect, then you will accept tens of thousands more covid deaths in exchange for keeping thje economy open.

 

And then of course you have to factor in future costs.  If unemployment rises by 2 million and retirement age goes up to 70, then obviously that's only money - can it be weighed against people's lives?  Well, yes,  That's what governments do.  If saving lives was all that government was about, driving would be banned and road deaths abolished.  Governments also have to think about general health, and yes, prosperity.  Rich countries have longer life expectancy than poor countries.

 

They need to do a lot more research about what would have happened.  In Brazil they had no lockdown at all and excess deaths April-June well below ours; in Peru they had the strictest lockdown of all and the highest death rate, albeit delayed until July.  How do we know what would have happened if we had done it differently? 

 

Here's an answer to your question - the "acceptable" number of deaths to keep the economy open is at least as high as the number of deaths that will happen if we keep locked down.  All they need do is provide the answer to hiw many will happen in lockdown, and we have a starting point for the answer.

Which study said austerity cost 130,000 lives? Do you have a link? I cannot imagine that is anything like true.

 

I remember a famous one saying it might have cost 30,000 lives in total over a 8-10 year period.

Edited 24 October 2020 by Sampson

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Which study said austerity cost 130,000 lives? Do you have a link? I cannot imagine that is anything like true.

 

I remember a famous one saying it might have cost 30,000 lives in total over a 8-10 year period.

It's a figure widely quoted by people who oppose the conservative or coalition government.  It's based on some dodgy statistics IMO and I doubt the figure is anywhere near that.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/austerity-120000-unnecessary-deaths/

 

But to add to the basic "austerity" deaths we do need to add the very real prospect of excess deaths caused by the NHS ignoring (to a greater or lesser extent) other illnesses.  Two million operations cancelled in March to May, and the likelihood of cancelling more now.  Two million is about what they do in a quarter typically, so they have at least a three month backlog.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/26/more-than-two-million-operations-cancelled-as-nhs-fights-covid-19

 

These aren't minor operations.  They may not be immediate life or death, but they do include for example, surgery to remove cancerous tumours.  And the operations will still have to take place sometime, and there isn't much wiggle room to catch up in, so everybody's surgery is going to be three motnhs late for some time to come.

 

Add to that the way doctors have been doing all they can to discourage people from consulting them, and there will be excess deaths that would have been prevented if the NHS had been working normally.

[Costock_Fox]

I’m looking at all of this and think Wales really have nailed it. You can imagine how the conversation went as well...

 

”I’m really worried about the rapid rise in cases, what can we do?”

”Don’t know, have we tried wrapping duvets in clingfiim yet?”

 

[st albans fox]

4 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

I’m looking at all of this and think Wales really have nailed it. You can imagine how the conversation went as well...

 

”I’m really worried about the rapid rise in cases, what can we do?”

”Don’t know, have we tried wrapping duvets in clingfiim yet?”

 

Strange that supermarkets could sell this stuff in a total lockdown but aren’t able to in a firebreak .......if the welsh socialists are intent on rescuing the high street from the supermarkets, they could take a more intelligent strategy - meanwhile, how many just about viable businesses are pushed over the edge with reduced orders and cancellations due to the consequential drop in demand ......

[Costock_Fox]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Strange that supermarkets could sell this stuff in a total lockdown but aren’t able to in a firebreak .......if the welsh socialists are intent on rescuing the high street from the supermarkets, they could take a more intelligent strategy - meanwhile, how many just about viable businesses are pushed over the edge with reduced orders and cancellations due to the consequential drop in demand ......

In simple terms it’s just completely ****ing mental isn’t it.