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21 minutes ago, rachhere said:

Yeah, not great. However, I do think we had a good idea that this was the case already, and it will have been factored into the vaccination strategy. 

Is there anybody on here who really understands this because I thought is what normally happens. The antibodies drop off over time but the body would have built the 'infrastructure' to rapidly produce new antibodies in the event of a re-infection so more easily fights it off.

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16 minutes ago, rachhere said:

Yeah, not great. However, I do think we had a good idea that this was the case already, and it will have been factored into the vaccination strategy. 

Is this new?  I was told as a child that when you catch a disease such a measles your body produces antibodies to fight it, and then if the virus attacks you again the body remembers how they were produced and is bang on ready to produce some more so you don't even notice it's attacked you again.  Have things changed?

 

Anyway, we know that the immunity lasts 6 months Up to the end of April there were 130,000 confirmed cases who survived, which is 1 in 500 of the population.  If the immunity lasts only 6 months we would expect 1 in 500 of the current positive tests to be of people who had tested positive before - that's (based on 20,000 per day) a total of 40 a day, on average, who have tested positive early doors now testing positive again.  That isn't happening - if two or three hundred people in the last week had caught coronavirus for the second time, we would certainly hear about it.  So I will guarantee that immunity lasts more than 6 months in virtually all cases.

 

How much more than 6 months?  Remains to be seen.

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25 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Again I don’t think anybody on here doubts that a lockdown will bring figures down. When people question the effectiveness of lockdowns it’s more to do with what happens after you’ve got the figures down. It’s not like the virus will not be lurking elsewhere waiting to re appear again and when it does what will Dan do.  Lock the whole state down again and re start the lockdown cycle. Unless a working vaccine appears the stop start lockdown route can not be awarded the best way to deal with a virus award, as its success short term doesn’t mean it’s the the best route long term. 

If we none of us leave our houses for long enough, we will all die of something else.  In the absence of further information, I believe that is the government's plan B.

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29 minutes ago, rachhere said:

Yeah, not great. However, I do think we had a good idea that this was the case already, and it will have been factored into the vaccination strategy. 

Fair point, the vaccine news is positive at least so thats something.

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46 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Again I don’t think anybody on here doubts that a lockdown will bring figures down. When people question the effectiveness of lockdowns it’s more to do with what happens after you’ve got the figures down. It’s not like the virus will not be lurking elsewhere waiting to re appear again and when it does what will Dan do.  Lock the whole state down again and re start the lockdown cycle. Unless a working vaccine appears the stop start lockdown route can not be awarded the best way to deal with a virus award, as its success short term doesn’t mean it’s the the best route long term. 

Not saying this is possible everywhere, but in Victoria’s (and more widely Australia’s) case the objective is to drive infections down to a low enough level that an efficient test, trace and isolate system can quickly snuff out clusters as they appear. This has worked in practice everywhere else in Australia since May. In fact, all states bar Queensland, NSW and Victoria appear to have actually eliminated the virus. NSW and Queensland have managed to quickly deal with clusters as they have arisen and the hope is that Victoria can now do the same.

 

There are no guarantees for the future of course, but considerable experience seems to have accrued in dealing with outbreaks. Trade with the rest of the world and between states has continued throughout, so apart from from the tourist trade the economy should be able to get back to something like normal. Certainly here in WA it feels like everything is booming.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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3 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Not saying this is possible everywhere, but in Victoria’s (and more widely Australia’s) case the objective is to drive infections down to a low enough level that an efficient test, trace and isolate system can quickly snuff out clusters as they appear. This has worked in practice everywhere else in Australia since May. In fact, all states bar Queensland, NSW and Victoria appear to have actually eliminated the virus. NSW and Queensland have managed to quickly deal with clusters as they have arisen and the hope is that Victoria can now do the same.

 

There are no guarantees for the future of course, but considerable experience seems to have accrued in dealing with outbreaks. Trade with the rest of the world and between states has continued throughout, so apart from from the tourist trade the economy should be able to get back to something like normal. Certainly here in WA it feels like everything is booming.

Australia well placed to fight a virus.  The weather is a huge plus as easy to do things outside. When I was there everyone eats outside most of the year. Also a very fit nation compared to many other first world countries. I loved watching Cannington and Mandurah dogs in our summer sat in the garden.  Shame, unlike you, I can only do that for about two months of the year!  As long as people show common sense over there I don’t see you having the problems we’ve had with virus spreading. 

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Living in Spain and they’ve given us a 10pm-6pm curfew already, and want to make a complete lockdown at the weekends. Fvcking hell man it’s getting absolutely ridiculous now, it would be fine if they didn’t force everyone back to pissing school. 

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45 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Australia well placed to fight a virus.  The weather is a huge plus as easy to do things outside. When I was there everyone eats outside most of the year. Also a very fit nation compared to many other first world countries. I loved watching Cannington and Mandurah dogs in our summer sat in the garden.  Shame, unlike you, I can only do that for about two months of the year!  As long as people show common sense over there I don’t see you having the problems we’ve had with virus spreading. 

thats what you'd think but...

 

Australia ranked ninth of of 23 OECD nations on obesity, with 63% of the population over the age of 15 considered either overweight or obese. The OECD average was 58%.

 

For men, Australians had the third highest rate of being overweight or obese, behind the United States and Chile.

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1 minute ago, January47 said:

thats what you'd think but...

 

Australia ranked ninth of of 23 OECD nations on obesity, with 63% of the population over the age of 15 considered either overweight or obese. The OECD average was 58%.

 

For men, Australians had the third highest rate of being overweight or obese, behind the United States and Chile.

Lol they just bigger and more muscular. The old obesity BMI table is ridiculous.  The entire Tigers rugby team were told they were obese.

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13 minutes ago, January47 said:

thats what you'd think but...

 

Australia ranked ninth of of 23 OECD nations on obesity, with 63% of the population over the age of 15 considered either overweight or obese. The OECD average was 58%.

 

For men, Australians had the third highest rate of being overweight or obese, behind the United States and Chile.

Unfortunately I fall more into the lard arse camp :(

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21 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Lol they just bigger and more muscular. The old obesity BMI table is ridiculous.  The entire Tigers rugby team were told they were obese.

 

Yes but 99% of people aren't usually rugby players. BMI obviously has it's issues but by and large its still more then suitable for the average person. 90% of people who are obese on the BMI scale is because they are fat and not because they are muscular. 

 

Tbh though, I don't think being muscular and obese is that good for you either. Being obese....even with a lot of muscle on you is still going to put strain on your heart etc. You don't often see 6ft 5 250lb muscly guys living into their 80s for example. I think being obese in general probably isn't ideal for the vast majority of people...even if they are muscular and have low body fat. 

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1 hour ago, January47 said:

Is there anybody on here who really understands this because I thought is what normally happens. The antibodies drop off over time but the body would have built the 'infrastructure' to rapidly produce new antibodies in the event of a re-infection so more easily fights it off.

No necessarily - hence booster jabs for some infections

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3 hours ago, MonmoreStef said:

Again I don’t think anybody on here doubts that a lockdown will bring figures down. 

Really? I suggest that you read the last month of this thread. Actually don't.

 

3 hours ago, MonmoreStef said:

When people question the effectiveness of lockdowns it’s more to do with what happens after you’ve got the figures down. It’s not like the virus will not be lurking elsewhere waiting to re appear again and when it does what will Dan do.  Lock the whole state down again and re start the lockdown cycle. Unless a working vaccine appears the stop start lockdown route can not be awarded the best way to deal with a virus award, as its success short term doesn’t mean it’s the the best route long term. 

A key part in Australia's defences lies in its geography being an isolated island. In March, it promptly closed its international borders to foreign travellers to prevent imported infections - also state lockdown policies have been decisive, committed and effectual aided by a compliant citizenship that unlike the UK has embraced distancing protocols. This in tandem with a comprehensive programme of testing and contact tracing. Lockdown is not an isolated measure - it is designed to reduce clinical impact and bring the virus under control and is not a policy that operates in isolation of a range of other measures. It is however demonstrably necessary. 

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18 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Really? I suggest that you read the last month of this thread. Actually don't.

 

A key part in Australia's defences lies in its geography being an isolated island. In March, it promptly closed its international borders to foreign travellers to prevent imported infections - also state lockdown policies have been decisive, committed and effectual aided by a compliant citizenship that unlike the UK has embraced distancing protocols. This in tandem with a comprehensive programme of testing and contact tracing. Lockdown is not an isolated measure - it is designed to reduce clinical impact and bring the virus under control and is not a policy that operates in isolation of a range of other measures. It is however demonstrably necessary. 

You would think that the UK..also an island could have sorted this out properly and done one very strict and harsh lockdown instead of this weird dribbled out lockdown. 

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4 hours ago, Christoph said:

You would think that the UK..also an island could have sorted this out properly and done one very strict and harsh lockdown instead of this weird dribbled out lockdown. 

To be fair, it’s difficult to see (with the benefit of hindsight) how the UK could have applied the same strategy.

 

Firstly, in practice Australia has much better control of its borders, both external and internal.
 

International borders were shut very early on, whilst trade was allowed to continue. This would be almost impossible in the UK where huge amounts of freight come and go via lorries. Drivers would almost certainly have seeded new infection even as locally acquired infection was driven down. In contrast, all goods coming into and out of Australia do so via ships and planes where it is much easier to have containment protocols in place.

 

Also, the UK’s much larger international air travel and holiday industry would basically need to shut down for the duration. I doubt if there was sufficient political will to do this, particularly as the UK is a hub for passengers travelling between other countries.

 

Internally, because states in Australia are much more naturally isolated from each other, restricting travel between them has been much easier and has also played a role in reducing seeding from one state to another. Again almost impossible with UK counties, although perhaps possible during short lockdown periods.


By a combination of luck and good judgement, Australia acted very early in the epidemic cycle and this resulted in the first wave being snuffed out before it real got started. This meant that there was very little virus circulating in the community to pop up unexpectedly elsewhere, and it was almost eliminated everywhere early on. It only really broke down in Victoria due to a cock up (quite literally it seems lol) in the hotel quarantine scheme. I don’t think hotel quarantine was even attempted in the UK, and would only work anyway in conjunction with strict border controls.

 

As was shown in Victoria, when a proper wave gets started it is much harder to eliminate, not least because testing, tracing and isolation has severe capacity limits that quickly get overwhelmed unless virus levels get down to very low levels. I would estimate this capacity as about 50 infections per day per state, or less. Even that requires a huge effort and considerable experience and expertise to be built up.

 

Finally. I think we have a smaller proportion of belligerent libertarians here. They do exist but have been quieted by a population that have mostly supported the measures that have been taken. The problem with getting things under control in the first place is that as soon as infection levels and death rates appear to get down to lower levels, the “are we there yet?” crowd get started, whinging about opening up, before infection levels can be appropriately dealt with through track and trace. In the UK reopening occurred before testing and tracing had anywhere near the capacity to deal with clusters that were still occurring so a second wave was guaranteed.

 

Anyway, my impression is that the current policy in the UK is simply to try to keep health services from being overwhelmed, with infection and death rates continuing as they may. So for those who wanted more of a “open up, take it in the chin and get to herd immunity as quickly as possible” policy, you’ve won, this is what it looks like. I just hope that the second wave does not get completely out of control.

 

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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30 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

I had covid in February when it ripped through my hospital (we didn't know what it was at the time). I've been looking after covid patients mostly non stop since, short of a brief period in the summer. My ffp3 mask never fits properly because I have a big nose, sometimes I am lazy and don't shave for a few days so the seal isn't there. The trust provided me a big reusable mask that does protect me properly, but I honestly just find it too painful to wear for 13 hour shifts so I don't.

 

Been exposed constantly, I've worn just a surgical mask with undiagnosed covid patients coughing all over me and in my face. Doing bronchoscopies on the icu creating an aerosol all around me with the mask slipped down below my nose cos I'm sweaty and my hands are full/contaminated so cant pull it up.

 

I had zero antibodies when tested a few months ago.Touch wood I am still fine, I have to be immune to not be getting sick with this constant exposure surely?

How bad were you when you had it in February?

 

I know you said the hospital beds are filling up again. How are they looking in comparison to March/April time?

 

There was an interesting article on the BBC website a couple of days ago about how people aren't being put into comes anymore they're mostly awake and talking. So ICU has a different feel to it.

 

Would be interested to get your take.

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With hospitals filling up again with COVID-19 patients and the daily death rate starting to rise ominously, maybe we'll see a return to the Thursday evening street applause for NHS staff. Unrelated to that, I'm struggling to work why England's 3 tiers are named medium/high/very-high and not low/medium/high, and Scotland's 5 tiers are numbered 0-4 and not 1-5. 

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14 minutes ago, String fellow said:

With hospitals filling up again with COVID-19 patients and the daily death rate starting to rise ominously, maybe we'll see a return to the Thursday evening street applause for NHS staff. Unrelated to that, I'm struggling to work why England's 3 tiers are named medium/high/very-high and not low/medium/high, and Scotland's 5 tiers are numbered 0-4 and not 1-5. 

Because if you named a tier 'low', then people there wouldn't STAY ALERT and CONTROL THE VIRUS.

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