Coronavirus Thread

[Buce]

Why Leicester, Blackburn and Bradford have been hit hard by Covid

Leicester’s deputy mayor, Sarah Russell, sees a pattern in the latest data on the spread of coronavirus in the city. “We don’t get the peaks of other places but we take a longer time coming back down,” she says. In some parts of the country, it is a familiar problem.

Leaked analysis by the government’s Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) has found that low wages, cramped housing and the failures of the test-and-trace system have led to “stubbornly high” case rates in deprived areas such as parts of Leicester, Blackburn with Darwen and Bradford.

All three were above the English average of 194 new cases per 100,000 residents last week. Blackburn’s rate has not dropped below 200 since 30 September. Local politicians, doctors and community leaders say lockdown alone is not enough to contain the virus in these parts of the country.

Leicester

On 29 June, Leicester became the first English region to enter a local lockdown. In the previous two weeks, one in 16 of all positive cases in the UK were recorded in the city. The centre of the outbreak was reportedly in the east of the city, an area with tightly packed terraced housing where many black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) families live, often in intergenerational housing.

 

More than seven months later, Leicester’s case rates remain higher than the national average. It recorded almost 300 new cases per 100,000 residents in the week to 6 February.

Leicester authorities received limited data from test and trace in the summer, but a localised system set up on 7 December has made a big difference, Russell says. “It’s containing rather than stopping, but it’s absolutely better than test and trace. We were getting case data three, five or six days after a positive test. Now we get it after eight hours.”

The local system caters to local needs, she says. “[The tracers] speak a variety of languages, they’re able to offer support from dog walking to shopping.”

Russell emphasises that not everyone can afford to self-isolate when they are traced. The government’s £500 support grants for people self-isolating is largely reserved for those on benefits. The council’s discretionary grant system, set up for others who are struggling, was limited to £114,000, then increased to £184,000, and Russell says: “We could have spent that three times over.”

Precarious jobs also prevent some from isolating. “Some people are working three or four separate jobs. Two employers might be understanding [if someone needs to self-isolate], but the others won’t,” Russell says, adding that only once financial issues are resolved will cases fall and the local test system take effect. “We’ve got teams out on the doorsteps to root out every possible case. But there’s no point in doing lockdowns without enough financial support.”

 

Blackburn

Over the course of the pandemic, Blackburn has had more coronavirus cases per head of population than any local authority in the UK. The latest figures showed 302 new cases per 100,000 residents in a week.

Like Russell in Leicester, Blackburn’s Labour MP, Kate Hollern, sees a lack of financial support as the root cause. “I get letters all the time,” she says. “The real problem is the self-isolation payments. People were getting nervous of getting tested because they couldn’t afford to isolate.”

Blackburn with Darwen council ran out of discretionary grant funding in December, Hollern says, but the local health team has been “amazing”. In July, NHS test and trace was reaching less than half of contacts. Prof Dominic Harrison, the area’s director of public health, announced a local system on 4 August.

Now, Hollern hopes the vaccination rollout can unlock the region. She received her jab last Thursday. Blackburn Cathedral opened a mass testing centre on 18 January.

Faith leaders are seen as central to the vaccination efforts. Mauwana Rafiq Suri, the chair of the Lancashire Council of Mosques, is encouraging people of south Asian heritage to get their jabs, and he organised a webinar about vaccines with directors of public health, local GPs and others.

He says: “We had some issues with the younger generation trying to convince the elder generation to not take the vaccine because of all the misinformation and conspiracies online. We had to address that and give them the alternative.”

Thanks to this work, Hollern says, vaccine take-up among Blackburn’s BAME communities is good. Suri adds: “One good thing to have come out is the collaborative work: authorities have understood that faith organisations can help.”

 

Bradford

When Leicester was placed under local lockdown in July, Bradford was second in the list of towns with the highest case rates. Prof John Wright, director of the Bradford Institute for Health Research, referred to this list as a “league table of inequality”.

Though the region now has lower rates than Leicester and Blackburn, Wright says socioeconomic factors are keeping transmission rates stubbornly high. He describes coronavirus as an “occupational hazard”, saying: “It’s about the number of people who are low-paid workers or key workers here, taxi drivers or bus drivers.”

At Bradford Royal Infirmary, patients’ underlying health problems have worsened the impact of Covid: the city has higher than average rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity.

Like experts in Leicester and Blackburn, Wright says NHS test and trace is not working because it “doesn’t understand context … If you don’t give proper support to allow people on the breadline to isolate, they can’t. They’ve got to find a way to feed their families.”

Trust is also a problem. “There’s a background of falling trust in government and, actually, NHS institutions [in Bradford]. The solution to that is locally developed grassroots movements,” Wright adds.

 

Laila Ahmed leads engagement for the Women’s Health Network, an almost 20-year-old community group whose 190 members work across Bradford’s Pakistani, Bangladeshi, African-Caribbean and white communities.

As well as providing their usual cancer care and mental health support, the network has used film clips to pass on accurate information about coronavirus in different languages.

Bradford’s approach has been well organised, Ahmed says, but “it’s impossible not to take onboard the previous 20 years of issues. When coronavirus landed here, it didn’t land on a blank slate.”

Inequality will continue to hold back efforts to contain the virus across the UK, Wright predicts. “These are deep structural issues,” he says. “There’s no lateral flow [test] or contact-tracing system that can combat these. The pandemic has shown the stark reality of social inequalities across the UK.”

[FLAN]

My two eldest daughters (20/18) have been contacted for a vaccine jab. They both have absence epilepsy which is a relatively minor ailment and controlled by medication. I was surprised they were a priority 

[Facecloth]

There was a post in the Phunny Photos thread the other day about the guy who was 6ft2 but the drs had him down as 6.2cm, so his BMI was massive and he got the vaccine call. Got me thinking though, how many people potentially fall into a vulnerable group due to weight, but the drs don't know about it. I haven't been weighed at my drs for years, and I don't know many that have. I have put on a bit during lockdown, but I doubt I fall into a vulnerable group, but there's bound to be a few that are in danger without the NHS knowing.

Edited 18 February 2021 by Facecloth

[FLAN]

Just put the phone down having booked in for next week. They called me

im 49 and assumed it may be due to my history with epilepsy but I have been clear for 14 years 🤷🏻‍♂️
see above post about my daughters also 

[Zear0]

26 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

There was a post in the Phunny Photos thread the other day about the guy who was 6ft2 but the drs had him down as 6.2cm, so his BMI was massive and he got the vaccine call. Got me thinking though, how many people potentially fall into a vulnerable group due to weight, but the drs don't know about it. I haven't been weighed at my drs for years, and I don't know many that have. I have put on a bit during lockdown, but I doubt I fall into a vulnerable group, but there's bound to be a few that are I'm danger without the NHS knowing.

Can't help but picturing Homer Simpson in his Muumuu during all this.  Hit that BMI to get a jab and go on holiday.

[Facecloth]

@FLAN I'm confused as to why some people potentially missing out on a vaccine when they could potentially being in a vulnerable group is funny?

[BenTheFox]

13 hours ago, Filbert_Ross said:

A long time coming but finally unfollowed Sky News on Twitter today. Cba with all the negative bombardment. 

I've stopped using Twitter for good. Best decision I've made in a long time.

[Nod.E]

3 hours ago, Nick said:

I thought you were in your late 60’s or older?

I don't know if that should be taken as a compliment or an insult

 

I'm 29.

[Alf Bentley]

39 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

@FLAN I'm confused as to why some people potentially missing out on a vaccine when they could potentially being in a vulnerable group is funny?

 

I must confess that I found some amusement in the bloke getting called for vaccination due to his massively high BMI, as he'd been misrecorded as 6.2cm tall and not 6ft2. 

 

You have a point re. GPs not routinely checking for health vulnerabilities like weight (in normal times - hard to do during Covid, with face-to-face appointments kept to a minimum).

 

My GP did check my weight about a year ago, but only due to a heart issue, not as a regular check - and it hadn't been checked for years before that. Maybe there's an argument for GPs to offer patients such checks every year or two - though time and resources might make that unrealistic. In normal times, you'd hope that a GP would notice if someone came into surgery looking seriously obese or looking to have gained a lot of weight.

 

To some extent, the onus is on patients to seek checks on potential health vulnerabilities - but I'm aware that some might not do so, due to depression or simply to shame or ignorance.

Although I'm a bit overweight, I'm not obese so the lack of any check didn't bother me as I knew it wasn't a significant health vulnerability. But as I'm late 50s, I'm surprised that they didn't check my cholesterol for years and have never suggested a prostate test. I'll probably request a prostate test post-Covid - and must admit that I was happy not to have cholesterol tests so as to avoid what I see as excessive pressure to put most people aged 50+ on statins (which have pluses and minuses, it seems). 

[Facecloth]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I must confess that I found some amusement in the bloke getting called for vaccination due to his massively high BMI, as he'd been misrecorded as 6.2cm tall and not 6ft2. 

 

You have a point re. GPs not routinely checking for health vulnerabilities like weight (in normal times - hard to do during Covid, with face-to-face appointments kept to a minimum).

 

My GP did check my weight about a year ago, but only due to a heart issue, not as a regular check - and it hadn't been checked for years before that. Maybe there's an argument for GPs to offer patients such checks every year or two - though time and resources might make that unrealistic. In normal times, you'd hope that a GP would notice if someone came into surgery looking seriously obese or looking to have gained a lot of weight.

 

To some extent, the onus is on patients to seek checks on potential health vulnerabilities - but I'm aware that some might not do so, due to depression or simply to shame or ignorance.

Although I'm a bit overweight, I'm not obese so the lack of any check didn't bother me as I knew it wasn't a significant health vulnerability. But as I'm late 50s, I'm surprised that they didn't check my cholesterol for years and have never suggested a prostate test. I'll probably request a prostate test post-Covid - and must admit that I was happy not to have cholesterol tests so as to avoid what I see as excessive pressure to put most people aged 50+ on statins (which have pluses and minuses, it seems). 

Oh yeah the tweet from the guy was hilarious, and we all laughed at that, I just thought it brought up a bigger issue, which we've both mentioned.

[Innovindil]

2 hours ago, Facecloth said:

There was a post in the Phunny Photos thread the other day about the guy who was 6ft2 but the drs had him down as 6.2cm, so his BMI was massive and he got the vaccine call. Got me thinking though, how many people potentially fall into a vulnerable group due to weight, but the drs don't know about it. I haven't been weighed at my drs for years, and I don't know many that have. I have put on a bit during lockdown, but I doubt I fall into a vulnerable group, but there's bound to be a few that are in danger without the NHS knowing.

Tbf there's the most simplest bmi calculator on the NHS website and people can weigh themselves. Shouldn't be needing to pay gp's for something anyone can do. Unless of course people are too fat to use at home scales, in which case I'd just go by the assumption your bmi is high and you should contact your gp. Took me all of 20 seconds. 

[martyn]

A note of caution, the ZOE symptom checker which has been a good precursor to official figures had plateaued over the last week, and has now shown a slight increase in estimated daily cases over the last 3 days (1%, 1% and today at 3%).

 

They need to establish if reported side effects of the vaccine are contributing to the figures, but worth keeping an eye on.

Edited 18 February 2021 by martyn

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Tbf there's the most simplest bmi calculator on the NHS website and people can weigh themselves. Shouldn't be needing to pay gp's for something anyone can do. Unless of course people are too fat to use at home scales, in which case I'd just go by the assumption your bmi is high and you should contact your gp. Took me all of 20 seconds. 

People won't admit it as Alf pointed out. Shame, head in sand kind of attitude.

[StanSP]

 

 

[Col city fan]

32 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Great news Stan 👍

Light at the end of a very dark tunnel

[Innovindil]

59 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

People won't admit it as Alf pointed out. Shame, head in sand kind of attitude.

Don't see why they wouldn't. Right now it takes a bmi of 40 to qualify for a vaccine doesn't it, as someone near that mark, I can safely say anyone pushing it already knows they are fat. 

 

With that said people are daft anyways. One of my mum's mates is currently doing the NHS vaccine people who can't get out their own homes. Visited 19 people over the weekend, 9 of them accepted the vaccine. Baffling. 

[Nod.E]

6 hours ago, Col city fan said:

I’m glad you’ve finally seen the light. It’s just a shame it’s taken so long

The UK is almost impossible to govern now. Yes, the politicians have made mistakes, but I look at so many people in this country now (you can see it on this very forum too) and it makes me shake my head in disbelief. 

I've come to the conclusion that it's a bit of both. Government are useless but as a population we don't help ourselves, either.

 

Having said that, I'm not sure how much more unruly Brits are vs. other nations. 

 

I generally have little faith in human beings, British or otherwise.

Edited 18 February 2021 by Nod.E

[Col city fan]

36 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

I've come to the conclusion that it's a bit of both. Government are useless but as a population we don't help ourselves, either.

 

Having said that, I'm not sure how much more unruly Brits are vs. other nations. 

 

I generally have little faith in human beings, British or otherwise.

I don’t see that the Government has been ‘useless’ through this pandemic. They’ve made errors for sure eg test and trace and the Nursing Home catastrophe but they’ve also seen some success too, eg vaccination programme.

I honestly don’t think another administration here in the UK would have performed any better.

Your last sentence I agree with 100%. I genuinely DO think the UK must be massively hard to govern. We’ve got people bleating on about their human rights left right and centre, a younger generation who pretty much think they are infallible when it comes to Covid and a very sporadic take up of the vaccine across different communities.

I think the infection rate and the death rate here in the UK has been down to both issues. A government making blunders and a population containing too many people who have acted like nothing has ever been wrong

[FLAN]

5 hours ago, Facecloth said:

@FLAN I'm confused as to why some people potentially missing out on a vaccine when they could potentially being in a vulnerable group is funny?

I only read the first few lines. That’s what I was laughing at. I didn’t read the serious part underneath as I assumed it was just e same story 

[Leicester_Loyal]

497,257 vaccinations announced today.

 

482,110 first doses.

15,147 second doses.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

20,156 people in hospital as of 16th February, was almost double that at 39,242 on 18th January.

 

The figures are going in the right direction everywhere, genuinely can't see why stuff can't be opened up in 6-8 weeks.

[filbertway]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

497,257 vaccinations announced today.

 

482,110 first doses.

15,147 second doses.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

20,156 people in hospital as of 16th February, was almost double that at 39,242 on 18th January.

 

The figures are going in the right direction everywhere, genuinely can't see why stuff can't be opened up in 6-8 weeks.

I imagine it will be the case, it seems the govt are wisely not giving the public or media any ammunition should things not go to plan.

[Nod.E]

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

6 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

497,257 vaccinations announced today.

 

482,110 first doses.

15,147 second doses.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

20,156 people in hospital as of 16th February, was almost double that at 39,242 on 18th January.

 

The figures are going in the right direction everywhere, genuinely can't see why stuff can't be opened up in 6-8 weeks.

 

6 hours ago, filbertway said:

I imagine it will be the case, it seems the govt are wisely not giving the public or media any ammunition should things not go to plan.

It's difficult to any Govt to manage.

They have to get a strong message out for people to follow the rules.

And they also have to offer hope to keep us going.

But they can't give out too much hope because then people will relax with the rules.

If they set difficult targets and fail to hit them, they get lambasted for failing.

If they set more easily achievable lower targets then they're not being proactive enough.

The UK Govt has been utter shite in a number of ways but it's a nightmare scenario, impossible even, to keep everyone happy.

[Nuneatonfox in Manchester]

1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

 

This needs to be in the headlines everywhere. Really positive news!

[StanSP]