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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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Legend_in_blue

Legend_in_blue

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

It's a combination of things, isn't it?

 

Cases, deaths, hospital capacities etc. It's not just any one thing unlocks everything. 

 

Vaccinations - and the positive effect of - no doubt play a big part. It's quite clearly been a positive start in that respect.

 

No doubt it has been a positive start.  I agree.  Vaccinate the at risk groups and go from there.  I find it alarming that vaccinating children was on the agenda this morning though on Marr.  The BBC shouldn't be giving members of Sage free reign to say what they like without challenge from elsewhere.  

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Costock_Fox

Costock_Fox

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, bovril said:

Doesn't foreign holidays depend also on what other countries are doing? This is what I don't get about all the "you suck!" stuff directed at the EU over their vaccination programmes. We kind of need them to be doing well too. 

Depends really I guess. I suspect some countries will look at the rate at which vaccinated people spread the virus and be happy to take the gamble for you to stay in some accommodation.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The route out of lockdown will be subject to what exactly?  Regardless of what you're opening up, what is it being measured against?  That is the key question.

 

If it's the reported 1000 cases a day there is next to no chance of that with the ramping up of LF tests with a FP rate of 0.03%.  You'll never end up below 1000 cases in that scenario.

 

Current lockdown was to not overwhelm the hospitals and that has been achieved, according to the data.  So open up.  I have a feeling though he'll move the goalposts once again.

If it's any comfort, come May, millions of people up and down the country will be breaking the rules unless they start to open things up. People won't look at 50 deaths a day in the news and continue to hide behind their sofa, they'll be out down the park, having friends over and going to the beaches. People are already starting to go out now, imagine what it's gonna be like when cases and deaths are low, combined with hot weather, and another 3 months of this.

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LCFCCHRIS

LCFCCHRIS

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The route out of lockdown will be subject to what exactly?  Regardless of what you're opening up, what is it being measured against?  That is the key question.

 

If it's the reported 1000 cases a day there is next to no chance of that with the ramping up of LF tests with a FP rate of 0.03%.  You'll never end up below 1000 cases in that scenario.

 

Current lockdown was to not overwhelm the hospitals and that has been achieved, according to the data.  So open up.  I have a feeling though he'll move the goalposts once again.

Yes they need to come out with the target for these things when they release this officially. Surely it makes sense to base the roadmap on stats rather than dates.

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, LCFCCHRIS said:

Yes they need to come out with the target for these things when they release this officially. Surely it makes sense to base the roadmap on stats rather than dates.

They have already mentioned they'll base it on 'data rather than dates'.

 

3 minutes ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

This of course all means nothing though really. If the cases go up again or new variants or whatever, it will be back to lockdown. The cautious approach presumably means promises of more freedom can be revoked quickly.

Also are these based on the assumption that everyone offered the vaccine will have it?

Every man and his dog knows I'm not a fan of this government but even I know there's not much they can do but offer the vaccine to everyone eligible. They can't force people to have it.

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StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, foxile5 said:

Odd because they've been driving at 8th March as a fixed date with little to no discussion over anything data driven. 

That's mainly for schools. Beyond that they've said they want to rely on data for everything else re-opening.

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foxile5

foxile5

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, StanSP said:

That's mainly for schools. Beyond that they've said they want to rely on data for everything else re-opening.

If they're data driven (which, for the record, I think they hide behind rather than are led by) then gyms should be open ASAP. 

 

Track and trace data shows there's barely any transmission there. 

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Costock_Fox

Costock_Fox

Posted
Posted

Something I found really confusing about the situation re lockdowns in Leicester was a study which suggested % of people in different areas of the country that have had Covid. We were nowhere to be seen but have been in constant restrictions for nearly a year yet areas like the north west had much higher %s. Bizarre.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/leicester-in-lockdown/

 

It really is shocking man.

 

Look at the conditions that some of these people live in, 6 people in a small terrace house off Belgrave Road, yet there's people out there (even earlier in this thread) who were slagging similar families off for having the temerity to travel to a park rather than stay in the house.

 

The equality gap between the well off and the poor has never been larger thanks to COVID.

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nuneatonfox in Manchester said:

This of course all means nothing though really. If the cases go up again or new variants or whatever, it will be back to lockdown. The cautious approach presumably means promises of more freedom can be revoked quickly.

Also are these based on the assumption that everyone offered the vaccine will have it?

No I’m sure the assumption was something like 70,75, or 80% cos the reports were that the uptake in the oldies was exceeding this. I think the reason for the cautious approach is a)over deliver on promises rather than underdeliver and b)that with U18s seemingly not being vaccinated until Autumn at the earliest, assumption that 20%+ won’t have it, and efficacy not being 100%/AZ being less effective than others, a fair chunk will be unprotected.

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Stivo

Stivo

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

No I’m sure the assumption was something like 70,75, or 80% cos the reports were that the uptake in the oldies was exceeding this. I think the reason for the cautious approach is a)over deliver on promises rather than underdeliver and b)that with U18s seemingly not being vaccinated until Autumn at the earliest, assumption that 20%+ won’t have it, and efficacy not being 100%/AZ being less effective than others, a fair chunk will be unprotected.

The other key thing that they don’t know yet is the extent to which the vaccines protect against hospitalisation.  If vaccines are say 75% effective against symptomatic Covid but are 95% effective against hospitalisations then we will be in a much better position to ease restrictions faster.

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The route out of lockdown will be subject to what exactly?  Regardless of what you're opening up, what is it being measured against?  That is the key question.

 

If it's the reported 1000 cases a day there is next to no chance of that with the ramping up of LF tests with a FP rate of 0.03%.  You'll never end up below 1000 cases in that scenario.

 

Current lockdown was to not overwhelm the hospitals and that has been achieved, according to the data.  So open up.  I have a feeling though he'll move the goalposts once again.

Surely that isn’t the way it would work? Wouldn’t they retest LF positives with PCR?

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