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Aus Fox

End of Season Permutations

By Aus Fox, in Leicester City Forum

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goose2010

goose2010

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, lestajigs said:

Maybe i should of found more time out of my day to get all the fact and figure’s, before quoting incorrect facts, Fantastic work there for correcting me, give yourself a gold 🌟,  what is a fact, our form (if not relegation) has been dreadful, and if we miss out after such a good start, thats horrific  

Team should be judged over the season. Overall it's been a fantastic season. 

 

 

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urban fox

urban fox

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Well rightly or wrongly this is where we find ourselves and statistically we're the side most likely to finish 5th.  

 

We're the club who has most to gain if Man city are banned.

No we are not. on a points per game basis we are fourth. Maybe according to the bookies odds we are most likely to finish fifth but that is not statistically. Statistics are based on historical, empirical data, whereas odds are calculated based on a multitude of factors, not least of which is to ensure that the bookies make the most money. They will be giving short odds on man utd because they know it will attract a lot of punters in.

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UHDrive

UHDrive

Posted
Posted

City 4th Man Utd 5th. 

 

With our goal difference and with a point against them in the final game then I think that'll be enough. We'd have to beat Bournemouth and Sheffield United though and at least a point at Spurs. 

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coolhandfox

coolhandfox

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, lestajigs said:

Lets just say its shit then!!! Maybe the word horrific is used Like an horrific injury, having an arm chopped of with a chainsaw, horrific car crash that kills 3 people, yes your right horrific shouldn’t be used in a game of sport! 

The problem is when you over achieve like we did earlier in the season winning 8 in a row, it make the second half of the season look much worse.

 

If we'd have spread our 59 points out over the course of the 34 games , people would be happy and saying how amazing we are doing! 

 

I'm a great believer that we weren't as good as we thought we were in the first 17 games and we haven't been as bad as people say in the last 17!

 

Other than the Liverpool home game and Man City away game we could have easily won or draw a lot more of the last 17, at time we have lacked that little bit of depth of quality in the squad which has cost us!

 

Probably the best mistake was not adding a quality attacker in the Jan window, a few more goals and assisted could have easily tipped 5-6 of those games in our favour 

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hackneyfox

hackneyfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, UHDrive said:

City 4th Man Utd 5th. 

 

With our goal difference and with a point against them in the final game then I think that'll be enough. We'd have to beat Bournemouth and Sheffield United though and at least a point at Spurs. 

That would give us 67 points.

Man U win four and draw with us gives them 68.

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UHDrive

UHDrive

Posted
Posted
Just now, hackneyfox said:

That would give us 67 points.

Man U win four and draw with us gives them 68.

Who says they'll win all those 4 😉. I cant see them keep winning game after game.

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Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, urban fox said:

No we are not. on a points per game basis we are fourth. Maybe according to the bookies odds we are most likely to finish fifth but that is not statistically. Statistics are based on historical, empirical data, whereas odds are calculated based on a multitude of factors, not least of which is to ensure that the bookies make the most money. They will be giving short odds on man utd because they know it will attract a lot of punters in.

 

it's a very simple way of looking at it and the best metric would be point expectation which gives us just short of a 50% chance of finishing 5th and way more than any other club.

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lestajigs

lestajigs

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, goose2010 said:

Team should be judged over the season. Overall it's been a fantastic season. 

 

 

Im not disputing, overall to finish in the top 5 before the season started would of been fantastic, but now would be a disappointment from the gap we had in January to finish 5th, 

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Gevans_97

Gevans_97

Posted
Posted

For me, it kind of all depends on Man City's ban. A win against Bournemouth and it looks like we won't finish lower than 5th. If 5th gets up Champions League, happy days. Would be a disappointment to not get in the top 4, but honestly I don't really care as long as we get Champions League football next season. 

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goose2010

goose2010

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, lestajigs said:

Im not disputing, overall to finish in the top 5 before the season started would of been fantastic, but now would be a disappointment from the gap we had in January to finish 5th, 

Not really as there is no point judging something until it's over. 

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fox_up_north

fox_up_north

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

We were 14pts clear of fifth after the 4-1 win at Villa.

 

Since then we've got 21 points from 18 games.

Averaged over a season that would be 44pts.

No PL team has ever been relegated in a 38 game season with that many points.

Two sides went down on 42 and two more with 40.

The average points for a third bottom side going down (in a 20 team division) is 35.6

 

So while we've been poor compared to the first 16 matches and that's not a reason to celebrate, it's not actually relegation form.

 

Last 10 years ending on 44 points we'd have finished:

15th (3 times)

14th (once)

13th (twice)

12th (twice)

11th (once)

10th (once)

Geoff, as a fellow man who has had to sort through stats and look at them (done a similar job to you in the past) I thank you for pulling those together! It's something that you either love digging into or absolutely hate!

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Ashley

Ashley

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, AKCJ said:

You'll have to help me out then mate!

Normally. If you get banned you've done something wrong. 

 

Uefa have openly wanted to ban man city for a while, with this they had the opportunity. No investigation just a ban. I'm sure if they did investigate it they'll have found they haven't done anything wrong hence with Man City are so confident of it being over turned. 

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UHDrive

UHDrive

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weller54 said:

Have you seen their form over the last 15 games or so??...

I can see them easily winning the next 4.

This is the premier league, they aren't liverpool and I disagree that they'll be able to keep this run going. 

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urban fox

urban fox

Posted
Posted

in an ideal world

 

Liverpool

(man City)

Leicester

Chelsea

Man utd

Wolves (win EL)

Sheff utd

Burnley

 

That would put Wolves into CL and if anyone but Arsenal win the FA cup then Spurs and Arsenal have no European football at all next year. If man city ban gets overturned then UTD only get EL and places only go down to 7th.

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Stinkenzo

Stinkenzo

Posted
Posted

Best hope we've got now is Man Utd winning their next 3 games and having nothing to play for in the last game, resting players for the Europa League. Not that I see us taking it to the last day anymore and even if we didn't, couldn't see us beating their reserves.

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KrefelderFox666

KrefelderFox666

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Walkers said:

Best hope we've got now is Man Utd winning their next 3 games and having nothing to play for in the last game, resting players for the Europa League. Not that I see us taking it to the last day anymore and even if we didn't, couldn't see us beating their reserves.

They have a 2 week rest after the last PL game. Either way, looks like the last game will have something riding on it, unless we collapse against Sheff Utd and Spurs (which I can see us doing, this team has no spine).

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Stinkenzo

Stinkenzo

Posted
Posted
Just now, KrefelderFox666 said:

They have a 2 week rest after the last PL game. Either way, looks like the last game will have something riding on it, unless we collapse against Sheff Utd and Spurs (which I can see us doing, this team has no spine).

Maybe, but OGS does rotate a fair bit and they'll have played 11 games in 30 something days.

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