US Presidential Election 2020

[Lionator]

17 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Will it though?

Even if he takes Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin (as I think is expected) and Michigan, he still needs one of PA/GA doesn't he? I know it looks likely he'll take Georgia (more so than MI I think) but both of those look like they could be close enough that we're looking at recounts and legal challenges.

I think Biden probably takes a narrow legitimate win if the vote is counted fairly, but regardless Trump will probably find a way to stay in office from this position. It's close enough that the Supreme Court can make it happen.

I've just used that 270 tool and it would be 271-266 to Biden without PA or GA. I think he'd want to take one of them though just to be sure.

[Nalis]

6 minutes ago, shen said:

Which news source that covers the election would you recommend?

NY times do a tracker of each outlet all on one page (abc, nbc, fox, ap, etc) though it seems to be behind a paywall on a mobile now

[Kingleicester]

I hope trump wins tbf, I think he is the better choice for the U.K. and Brexit and trade, Biden’s love for the Irish might have a negative impact for the U.K. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Trump is definitely gonna be asking questions about these postal votes and fraud.

[Finnegan]

1 minute ago, Mark_w said:

I dunno probably. Have the districts in Maine/Nebraska all been called?

 

Just do a Google search for "us election." Google have a built in Associated Presss widget on the homepage. 

 

If AP have called it, it's done. You're not like to find a more accurate, less partisan predictor. 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

How can these states just stop counting?! Is this to ensure that postal votes never happen again or something?

[Finnegan]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

Trump is definitely gonna be asking questions about these postal votes and fraud.

 

The only attempted fraud around the postal votes was Trump trying to stop them happening. He can yell and cry all he wants but the quickest way he can turn off even his own supporters is to try and sully the democratic process. Even (most of) his own base treat American democracy with sanctity. 

 

 

[Mark_w]

1 minute ago, Finnegan said:

 

Just do a Google search for "us election." Google have a built in Associated Presss widget on the homepage. 

 

If AP have called it, it's done. You're not like to find a more accurate, less partisan predictor. 

 

Oh I am using that, it just doesn't seem clear to me if ME-2/NE-2 have been called from that.

[Dunge]

14 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

If Biden Wins Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin and Michigan he will be on 267

I think Maine’s still to declare, which should give Biden 3.

 

Michigan looking like the kingmaker.

[KFS]

CNN saying Trump asked for all votes to be counted... apart from where he was already leading  

 

How this man has even ushered the word fraud is baffling to me.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

23 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

when I went to bed last night it was 2/1 Trump, 1/2 Biden. When I woke up this morning that had flipped to mirror. 

 

Now it's 9/10 Biden again. 

 

Think Biden will miss out on PA even with a massive postal swing, he's so far behind I think he'll wind up a few percent off. 

 

Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia all look like they might flip on the postal vote though as postal are coming in about 65:35 in Biden's favour. 

 

It's funny, cos you could tell from Trump's "victory" speech that it was more of a concession when he started predictably blabbing about fraud. I imagine that's the point the bookies switched. 

 

Still way too early to say though. If the current AP projection showing on Google sticks (they've got Biden taking NV and WI) then Biden only needs one of MI, GA or PA. But literally all of those could still go Trump. They'll all be close. Which is still pretty depressing in itself.

 

 

I've been keeping an eye on it for a little while, not to put any money on just as a barometer. It's swung twice since I went to bed last night, usually by about this time during a UK election someone's at 1/50 but this is crazy. I guess it doesn't help when your country is the size of mainland Europe and your population is 5 times bigger than ours. 

[leicsmac]

For the sake of the environmental future of the planet (how a lot of people have such a lack of foresight on that topic I don't think I'll ever understand) I'm hoping Biden pulls this out of the fire at the last...but I think now both sides will accuse the other of stealing the election regardless of who wins.

 

This could get rather ugly.

[KFS]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

For the sake of the environmental future of the planet (how a lot of people have such a lack of foresight on that topic I don't think I'll ever understand) I'm hoping Biden pulls this out of the fire at the last...but I think now both sides will accuse the other of stealing the election regardless of who wins.

 

This could get rather ugly.

Yup this is now a win-win for Trump

[martyn]

7 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

I've been keeping an eye on it for a little while, not to put any money on just as a barometer. It's swung twice since I went to bed last night, usually by about this time during a UK election someone's at 1/50 but this is crazy. I guess it doesn't help when your country is the size of mainland Europe and your population is 5 times bigger than ours. 

Betfair has been really interesting. Lots of people will have made a ton of money trading on this market over the last 12 hours or so as the swings have all been pretty predictable, and odds were available for long enough.

Edited 4 November 2020 by martyn

[urban.spaceman]

[Finnegan]

7 minutes ago, KFS said:

Yup this is now a win-win for Trump

 

How exactly? If he loses, he loses. 

 

I might be being naive but I still don't know exactly how people think Trump is going to just make a few million votes disappear once they've been counted, hence why he was desperate to stop them happening in the first place. 

 

He can tweet and call something fake, false, a fraud, a lie or whatever he likes as often as he likes. All he can really do with that is sway public opinion and the only people that believe him are the ones that have already gone off to vote. 

 

He's not going to be able to prove anything because nothing has happened. The only corruption that's even likely to happen is a bunch of Biden votes mysteriously having vanished at postal sorting offices that he's been systematically sabotaging for months in the build up to the election because he's absolutely terrified of postal votes swinging Biden due to covid. 

 

Whilst it's probably quite right to be fearful of the US buttsliding towards fascism, its still a democracy and one that the entire world is watching. Even with one extra crony in the supreme court, I don't fully understand what people think he's going to do if Biden wins it, other than delay the inevitable. 

Edited 4 November 2020 by Finnegan

[RonnieTodger]

Batshit stuff 

[KFS]

3 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

How exactly? If he loses, he loses. 

 

I might be being naive but I still don't know exactly how people think Trump is going to just make a few million votes disappear once they've been counted, hence why he was desperate to stop them happening in the first place. 

 

He can tweet and call something fake, false, a fraud, a lie or whatever he likes as often as he likes. All he can really do with that is sway public opinion and the only people that believe him are the ones that have already gone off to vote. 

 

He's not going to be able to prove anything because nothing has happened. The only corruption that's even likely to happen is a bunch of Biden votes mysteriously having vanished at postal sorting offices that he's been systematically sabotaging for months in the build up to the election because he's absolutely terrified of postal votes swinging Biden due to covid. 

 

Whilst it's probably quite right to be fearful of the US buttsliding towards fascism, its still a democracy and one that the entire world is watching. Even with one extra crony in the supreme court, I don't fully understand what people think he's going to do if Biden wins it, other than delay the inevitable. 

Having seen his QAnon crazies at work, he’s fully capable of spinning them up to believe any shit that comes out of his orange mouth.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

How exactly? If he loses, he loses. 

 

I might be being naive but I still don't know exactly how people think Trump is going to just make a few million votes disappear once they've been counted, hence why he was desperate to stop them happening in the first place. 

 

He can tweet and call something fake, false, a fraud, a lie or whatever he likes as often as he likes. All he can really do with that is sway public opinion and the only people that believe him are the ones that have already gone off to vote. 

 

He's not going to be able to prove anything because nothing has happened. The only corruption that's even likely to happen is a bunch of Biden votes mysteriously having vanished at postal sorting offices that he's been systematically sabotaging for months in the build up to the election because he's absolutely terrified of postal votes swinging Biden due to covid. 

 

Whilst it's probably quite right to be fearful of the US buttsliding towards fascism, its still a democracy and one that the entire world is watching. Even with one extra crony in the supreme court, I don't fully understand what people think he's going to do if Biden wins it, other than delay the inevitable. 

I think the big fear is getting the count stopped prematurely and/or invalidate the votes through some other means in the courts. Probably unconstitutional, but he'd be daring the powers that be to stop him and risk an awful lot of civil unrest. Would they?

[Jon the Hat]

21 minutes ago, KFS said:

CNN saying Trump asked for all votes to be counted... apart from where he was already leading  

 

How this man has even ushered the word fraud is baffling to me.

Not quite - he has asked for postal votes, which people had a month before election day to post, which arrive AFTER election day to be ignored.  This is exactly how postal voting works in the UK.  If it is not either handed in at a polling station or received by post at the receiving officers address by the time the polls close on polling day it is ignored.  This is also the case in many states, but not in Pennsylvania.  Of course if he wins Penn and loses others this might all be irrelevant.

Of course he might try something else then, it wouldn't surprise me.  At the moment what he is calling Fraud is legal, he would have to overrule that in the Supreme court to have those votes thrown out.

[Mark_w]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I think the big fear is getting the count stopped prematurely and/or invalidate the votes through some other means in the courts. Probably unconstitutional, but he'd be daring the powers that be to stop him and risk an awful lot of civil unrest. Would they?

It's not a 'risk' that that might happen if one particular course of action is taken. There just is going to be an awful lot of civil unrest whatever happens from here.

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, Mark_w said:

It's not a 'risk' that that might happen if one particular course of action is taken. There just is going to be an awful lot of civil unrest whatever happens from here.

Honestly based on the past few months, the left wing nutjobs are much more likely to cause trouble than Trump supporters.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

It's not a 'risk' that that might happen if one particular course of action is taken. There just is going to be an awful lot of civil unrest whatever happens from here.

On that we agree.

[Mark_w]

Just now, Jon the Hat said:

Honestly based on the past few months, the left wing nutjobs are much more likely to cause trouble than Trump supporters.

Well we haven't seen what Trump supporters would do if he isn't President. You are more likely to get civil unrest from the group that doesn't have power.

[Finnegan]

1 minute ago, KFS said:

Having seen his QAnon crazies at work, he’s fully capable of spinning them up to believe any shit that comes out of his orange mouth.

 

But so what? Those people already vote for him and all they can do IS vote, which they have. 

 

His truly mad cultist supporters are going to believe the election was rigged anyway but it doesn't really matter. 

 

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

I think the big fear is getting the count stopped prematurely and/or invalidate the votes through some other means in the courts. Probably unconstitutional, but he'd be daring the powers that be to stop him and risk an awful lot of civil unrest. Would they?

 

The big risk with this for the GOP though is permanently damaging their reputation and the public trust in them. Unless you believe they're ready to try and radically shift American politics forever to make Trump some Putin-esque leader for life (which seems more than a bit fantastical to me) then they have to worry about the future too. 

 

Americans fetishize their democracy. Do you remember him suggesting they delay the election back in the summer? There was palpable uproar from his own support. Even earlier when he declared himself the winner despite evidence to the contrary, there were tweets from his own social media following condemning him. 

 

In a normal year, postal votes would swing red because the elderly are major conservative demographic. They can't do long term damage to postal voting without hurting their future and they can't be seen to openly sabotage this election in an act of, let's call it what it is, fascism without causing major damage to their long term image. 

 

Anything they do has to be based on genuinely framing the Dems for a real act of fraud and if they had any grounds o be doing that you'd have more than Trump's mad ranting right now.