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Wymsey

US Presidential Election 2020

By Wymsey, in General Chat

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KFS

KFS

Posted
Posted

Biden ahead in nearly every key state left. The issue is Reps physically came out to vote which is what is now being counted. Could go either way. I have a clear preference in Biden and it looks like Trump will take it.

 

Very interesting four years incoming for my family...

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

He will win Wisconsin i think, but has a big gap to close in NC, Penn, Michigan.  He needs Georgia I think, as he won't win the others.  he would need 70% odd of the postal vote I think.

Biden will win Michigan, which will be enough. 

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howlinmadmurfdoc

howlinmadmurfdoc

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, KFS said:

Biden ahead in nearly every key state left. The issue is Reps physically came out to vote which is what is now being counted. Could go either way. I have a clear preference in Biden and it looks like Trump will take it.

 

Very interesting four years incoming for my family...

Media in the U.K. says trumps ahead in all of those states but the postal votes are last to be counted and they will swing them towards Biden.

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Mark_w

Mark_w

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Biden will win Michigan, which will be enough. 

Will it though?

Even if he takes Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin (as I think is expected) and Michigan, he still needs one of PA/GA doesn't he? I know it looks likely he'll take Georgia (more so than MI I think) but both of those look like they could be close enough that we're looking at recounts and legal challenges.

I think Biden probably takes a narrow legitimate win if the vote is counted fairly, but regardless Trump will probably find a way to stay in office from this position. It's close enough that the Supreme Court can make it happen.

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Finnegan

Finnegan

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Biden now ever so slightly favourites in the eyes of the UK bookies, this is crazy! 

 

lol when I went to bed last night it was 2/1 Trump, 1/2 Biden. When I woke up this morning that had flipped to mirror. 

 

Now it's 9/10 Biden again. 

 

Think Biden will miss out on PA even with a massive postal swing, he's so far behind I think he'll wind up a few percent off. 

 

Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia all look like they might flip on the postal vote though as postal are coming in about 65:35 in Biden's favour. 

 

It's funny, cos you could tell from Trump's "victory" speech that it was more of a concession when he started predictably blabbing about fraud. I imagine that's the point the bookies switched. 

 

Still way too early to say though. If the current AP projection showing on Google sticks (they've got Biden taking NV and WI) then Biden only needs one of MI, GA or PA. But literally all of those could still go Trump. They'll all be close. Which is still pretty depressing in itself.

 

 

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Finnegan

Finnegan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Will it though?

Even if he takes Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin (as I think is expected) and Michigan, he still needs one of PA/GA doesn't he? I know it looks likely he'll take Georgia (more so than MI I think) but both of those look like they could be close enough that we're looking at recounts and legal challenges.

I think Biden probably takes a narrow legitimate win if the vote is counted fairly, but regardless Trump will probably find a way to stay in office from this position. It's close enough that the Supreme Court can make it happen.

 

AP have called Arizona, that's done. If he takes WI and NV then he's 16 short of 270 I think? He'd only need one of Michigan, Georgia or PA then. 

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Jon the Hat

Jon the Hat

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Will it though?

Even if he takes Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin (as I think is expected) and Michigan, he still needs one of PA/GA doesn't he? I know it looks likely he'll take Georgia (more so than MI I think) but both of those look like they could be close enough that we're looking at recounts and legal challenges.

I think Biden probably takes a narrow legitimate win if the vote is counted fairly, but regardless Trump will probably find a way to stay in office from this position. It's close enough that the Supreme Court can make it happen.

If Biden Wins Arizona/Nevada/Wisconsin and Michigan he will be on 267

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martyn

martyn

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

lol when I went to bed last night it was 2/1 Trump, 1/2 Biden. When I woke up this morning that had flipped to mirror. 

 

Now it's 9/10 Biden again. 

 

Think Biden will miss out on PA even with a massive postal swing, he's so far behind I think he'll wind up a few percent off. 

 

Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia all look like they might flip on the postal vote though as postal are coming in about 65:35 in Biden's favour. 

 

It's funny, cos you could tell from Trump's "victory" speech that it was more of a concession when he started predictably blabbing about fraud. I imagine that's the point the bookies switched. 

 

Still way too early to say though. If the current AP projection showing on Google sticks (they've got Biden taking NV and WI) then Biden only needs one of MI, GA or PA. But literally all of those could still go Trump. They'll all be close. Which is still pretty depressing in itself.

 

 

Was checking the betting markets. The big swing in the odds started when Wisconsin flipped. Trump went from about 1.3 to 2 ish on Betfair in about 15 mins.

Edited by martyn
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Mark_w

Mark_w

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

AP have called Arizona, that's done. If he takes WI and NV then he's 16 short of 270 I think? He'd only need one of Michigan, Georgia or PA then. 

I dunno probably. Have the districts in Maine/Nebraska all been called?

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