2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[turlo]

Still confident of us getting 68-70 points, which will be enough. We need to pick up wins in the easier home games and avoid defeats against West Ham and ideally Chelsea. West ham vs Chelsea also a key game where our rivals will take points off each other, although a draw there would be perfect.

[Pliskin]

8 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Natural to be pessimistic, we're Leicester fans, but honestly, I think if we need a win from those last 3 games we'll achieve it. United might have top 4 wrapped up by then, plus they may be in the Europa League final, players won't want to get injured. Chelsea we're away, no reason we can't beat them on our day with Barnes back. Spurs last game of the season, they may have nothing to play for by then, it's much easier to beat a team who have nothing on the line.

I just don’t want us going into those last three games needing more than a few points.

 

Having said that, I think we will be clear by then. I think by the end of the play v United we will confirmed CL members for next season. 

[turlo]

[Analysethis]

11/04/21 - PRL - West Ham United - Leicester City
18/04/21 - FAC - Leicester City - Southampton
22/04/21 - PRL - Leicester City - West Bromwich Albion
26/04/21 - PRL - Leicester City - Crystal Palace
01/05/21 - PRL - Southampton - Leicester City
08/05/21 - PRL - Leicester City - Newcastle United
11/05/21 - PRL - Manchester United - Leicester City
15/05/21 - PRL- Chelsea - Leicester City
23/05/21 - PRL - Leicester City - Tottenham Hotspur

 

We really need to almost cement the top 4 by Man Utd. I'm not fearful of getting points from the last three games but we really need to take advantage of games like WBA, Palace, Newcastle and Southampton.

[deanolegend1989]

Looking at the teams chasing us(Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool).

I can see going into our last 2 games max:

Liverpool 63

Spurs 62

Chelsea 62

So going into the last 2, we’d need maybe 68/69 to really be safe.

Liverpool’s last 2:

Burnley(A)

Palace(H)

Chelsea last 2:

Leicester(H)

Villa(A)

Spurs last 2:

Villa(H)

Leicester(A)

 

Assuming they all win them. Liverpool 69, Spurs 65 and Chelsea 65.

To be able to afford to lose both of them, we will need 68 or maybe 69 with GD.

 

The minimum to give us a chance I think out the next 5 is 10 points. 66 gives us a chance.

Next weekend is crucial.

 

Liverpools run in is so favourable, I can’t see them getting less than 68 points. If either Chelsea or Spurs beat us, they will get at least 68 too so we might need to get 68+ and 4 wins before then or possibly if we can win at least 3, can maybe get there by just drawing at the bridge/spurs.

 

The big problem I see is that I find it very hard to imagine we will be locked for top 4 going to Stamford Bridge.

Whether we need to draw or win or pray Villa help us out, it just feels like we might need a performance of our lives in a big situation to get us over the line and I’m not sure we have the bottle in those moments.

 

Next week is the definition of a 6 pointer! I’d go as far to say if we lose, we’ll do well to qualify from there, but if we won, we’d do well NOT to qualify.

Big moments for our club.

 

[Chocolate Teapot]

Few bits for me.

 

We can't rely on others, although we can probably afford a slight downturn in form.

 

Our current ppg is 1.86.

Between 68-70 points will most likely do it, which is between 1.5 and 1.7 a game so we've got some breathing room.

 

Of the 8 games left in the reverse fixtures we took 17 points.

 

4 wins and 2 draws or 5 wins and 3 losses we'll be fine.

[Chocolate Teapot]

30 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

Looking at the teams chasing us(Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool).

I can see going into our last 2 games max:

Liverpool 63

Spurs 62

Chelsea 62

So going into the last 2, we’d need maybe 68/69 to really be safe.

Liverpool’s last 2:

Burnley(A)

Palace(H)

Chelsea last 2:

Leicester(H)

Villa(A)

Spurs last 2:

Villa(H)

Leicester(A)

 

Assuming they all win them. Liverpool 69, Spurs 65 and Chelsea 65.

To be able to afford to lose both of them, we will need 68 or maybe 69 with GD.

 

The minimum to give us a chance I think out the next 5 is 10 points. 66 gives us a chance.

Next weekend is crucial.

 

Liverpools run in is so favourable, I can’t see them getting less than 68 points. If either Chelsea or Spurs beat us, they will get at least 68 too so we might need to get 68+ and 4 wins before then or possibly if we can win at least 3, can maybe get there by just drawing at the bridge/spurs.

 

The big problem I see is that I find it very hard to imagine we will be locked for top 4 going to Stamford Bridge.

Whether we need to draw or win or pray Villa help us out, it just feels like we might need a performance of our lives in a big situation to get us over the line and I’m not sure we have the bottle in those moments.

 

Next week is the definition of a 6 pointer! I’d go as far to say if we lose, we’ll do well to qualify from there, but if we won, we’d do well NOT to qualify.

Big moments for our club.

 

Yep next week is massive and I feel very much the same about it.

 

If we draw though....how will we feel then???

[deanolegend1989]

3 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Yep next week is massive and I feel very much the same about it.

 

If we draw though....how will we feel then???

Draw would be an ok result and I’d probably take it right now if offered.

We would then have 4 games to try and get 9/10 points from or better.

Anything other than a win next week though will require us with a tough job in the coming weeks, as I feel a win will allow for a bit more leeway.

 

[Deeg67]

27 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Yep next week is massive and I feel very much the same about it.

 

If we draw though....how will we feel then???

Certainly a better result for us than it would be for them.  I'm more worried about Liverpool and Chelsea TBH.

 

I'd take it.  I wouldn't be ecstatic, but I'd take it.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Spurs now need to win 7 (or win 6 and draw 1) of their remaining 8 games to finish on 68 points or more. They still have to play United, Everton, ourselves, Wolves and Villa.

[fuchsntf]

17 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Natural to be pessimistic, we're Leicester fans, but honestly, I think if we need a win from those last 3 games we'll achieve it. United might have top 4 wrapped up by then, plus they may be in the Europa League final, players won't want to get injured. Chelsea we're away, no reason we can't beat them on our day with Barnes back. Spurs last game of the season, they may have nothing to play for by then, it's much easier to beat a team who have nothing on the line.

In all my years, in the Top division I have never seen, top Teams Not Care in the last games...!!!

[moore_94]

2 big results for us already this weekend with both Spurs and Chelsea dropping points in games that should have been seen as wins

 

Hopefully Palace and Wolves can do us a favour tomorrow

[Foxaholic ME]

3 hours ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Few bits for me.

 

We can't rely on others, although we can probably afford a slight downturn in form.

 

Our current ppg is 1.86.

Between 68-70 points will most likely do it, which is between 1.5 and 1.7 a game so we've got some breathing room.

 

Of the 8 games left in the reverse fixtures we took 17 points.

 

4 wins and 2 draws or 5 wins and 3 losses we'll be fine.

Pity there not  all  away  only the bottom 3 have lost more at home . I  wonder if anybody else has qualified for the champions league losing 7 or possiblly more at home

[Chocolate Teapot]

1 minute ago, Foxaholic ME said:

Pity there not  all  away  only the bottom 3 have lost more at home . I  wonder if anybody else has qualified for the champions league losing 7 or possiblly more at home

Has anyone done that in a season where there weren't any fans thus rendering home advantage null and void before?

 

Don't think so. It's a nonsense statement. 

[Tielemans63]

Stating the obvious, but the West Ham game is absolutely massive. I think if we win that, we get that top 4 place.

[Foxaholic ME]

4 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Has anyone done that in a season where there weren't any fans thus rendering home advantage null and void before?

 

Don't think so. It's a nonsense statement. 

I  suppose there are  full houses when we play away

[FOXSE]

I just had a look at how the table looked with 12 games to go..

 

If West ham win tomorrow,  they will be 4 points back like 4 games a go, Chelsea 5 points back, same as 4 games ago, Tottenham (assuming they won their game in hand) 7 points back, just like 4 games ago. So we have lost 0 points on all those teams and chalked off 4 games, leaving just 8 to go. Liverpool are now 1 point further back, than 4 games ago.

 

Basically,  if 4 games ago you would have said no top 4 rivals will make up any ground for the first third of the 12 remaining games, I would have took that!

 

We don't need to do anything special here, we just need to steadily see this through as the games run out.

[Chocolate Teapot]

48 minutes ago, Foxaholic ME said:

I  suppose there are  full houses when we play away

Only West ham and city have won more games at home than us. What are you on about?

[turlo]

27 minutes ago, FOXSE said:

I just had a look at how the table looked with 12 games to go..

 

If West ham win tomorrow,  they will be 4 points back like 4 games a go, Chelsea 5 points back, same as 4 games ago, Tottenham (assuming they won their game in hand) 7 points back, just like 4 games ago. So we have lost 0 points on all those teams and chalked off 4 games, leaving just 8 to go. Liverpool are now 1 point further back, than 4 games ago.

 

Basically,  if 4 games ago you would have said no top 4 rivals will make up any ground for the first third of the 12 remaining games, I would have took that!

 

We don't need to do anything special here, we just need to steadily see this through as the games run out.

Amazing really if that's the table after the Arsenal game where players looked dead on their feat and our injury situation was getting worse week by week. A month later with no new injuries, 4 players back from injury (Fofana, Madders, Praet & Perez)  and hopefully Barnes back by the end of the month. 

[Beachyboy]

2 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

In all my years, in the Top division I have never seen, top Teams Not Care in the last games...!!!

Stoke 6 Liverpool 1 is the only one that springs to mind same day we smashed QPR 5-1

[TJB-fox]

2 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

In all my years, in the Top division I have never seen, top Teams Not Care in the last games...!!!

You haven’t been watching very carefully then. The phrase a team is ‘on the beach’ is totally apt and it happens every year and will happen every year. ‘Not caring’ is a bit strong but teams 100% drop off and get beat easy 

[fuchsntf]

34 minutes ago, Beachyboy said:

Stoke 6 Liverpool 1 is the only one that springs to mind same day we smashed QPR 5-1

One / Two Swallows Dont make a summer..

Edited 4 April 2021 by fuchsntf

[fuchsntf]

4 minutes ago, TJB-fox said:

You haven’t been watching very carefully then. The phrase a team is ‘on the beach’ is totally apt and it happens every year and will happen every year. ‘Not caring’ is a bit strong but teams 100% drop off and get beat easy 

Thats a fans pub-talk scenario..for also rans..out of the Top 6.....

 

[TJB-fox]

8 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Thats a fans pub-talk scenario..for also rans..out of the Top 6.....

 

Apologies misread the bit about top teams 

[weller54]

12 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

One / Two Swallow Dont make a summer..

I'll tell the wife!