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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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HereBeFoxes

HereBeFoxes

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, nwl fox said:

That actually makes me feel slightly less anxious, thank you! One question though, is there a reason you've left Liverpool out? 

They were in 8th at the time and their recent form was horrible, so the method was only going to have them going lower.  Even putting in last night's result they've stll lost 4 of the last 6, so aren't (in this model) really a threat - there are only 7 interations out of 10,000 where they finish above us (them 4th, us 5th) (there was only 1 until they beat Wolves).

 

In the real world of course recent form is not going to predict the future, so one can fiddle with the probabilities to compensate.  Here for instance is one where Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton and Liverpool are all given championship-winning form until the end of the season (2.2 pts/game assuming playing the average team in the division - actual points gained will be affected by the quality of the opponents in the actual fixtures, and of course the random element that is inherent in the model, and I would argue in football too) and we're given poor to mediocre form (1.3 pts/game):

 

Final Position Man City Man Utd Leicester Chelsea West Ham      Everton    Spurs Liverpool
1 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.2% 74.6% 10.4% 13.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
3 0.0% 17.2% 39.7% 32.7% 0.9% 3.5% 5.8% 0.3%
4 0.0% 5.9% 33.1% 29.5% 3.2% 10.7% 14.8% 1.2%
5 0.0% 1.3% 12.6% 13.4% 11.3% 22.8% 28.8% 6.1%
6 0.0% 0.3% 2.9% 6.4% 17.2% 27.1% 23.8% 13.8%
7 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.0% 23.3% 19.3% 15.2% 23.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 23.3% 11.1% 7.8% 28.9%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 16.4% 4.5% 2.9% 21.2%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

 

So I think we're in a good position.  Based on this entirely theoretical model!

 

7 hours ago, Steven said:

Monte Carlo method?

You betcha.

Edited by HereBeFoxes
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Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HereBeFoxes said:

They were in 8th at the time and their recent form was horrible, so the method was only going to have them going lower.  Even putting in last night's result they've stll lost 4 of the last 6, so aren't (in this model) really a threat - there are only 7 interations out of 10,000 where they finish above us (them 4th, us 5th) (there was only 1 until they beat Wolves).

 

In the real world of course recent form is not going to predict the future, so one can fiddle with the probabilities to compensate.  Here for instance is one where Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton and Liverpool are all given championship-winning form until the end of the season (2.2 pts/game assuming playing the average team in the division - actual points gained will be affected by the quality of the opponents in the actual fixtures, and of course the random element that is inherent in the model, and I would argue in football too) and we're given poor to mediocre form (1.3 pts/game):

 

Final Position Man City Man Utd Leicester Chelsea West Ham      Everton    Spurs Liverpool
1 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.2% 74.6% 10.4% 13.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
3 0.0% 17.2% 39.7% 32.7% 0.9% 3.5% 5.8% 0.3%
4 0.0% 5.9% 33.1% 29.5% 3.2% 10.7% 14.8% 1.2%
5 0.0% 1.3% 12.6% 13.4% 11.3% 22.8% 28.8% 6.1%
6 0.0% 0.3% 2.9% 6.4% 17.2% 27.1% 23.8% 13.8%
7 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.0% 23.3% 19.3% 15.2% 23.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 23.3% 11.1% 7.8% 28.9%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 16.4% 4.5% 2.9% 21.2%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

 

So I think we're in a good position.  Based on this entirely theoretical model!

 

You betcha.

Your model is completely flawed if you're going on previous results. it needs to be point expectation and then Monte Carlo it.

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Hoopla10

Hoopla10

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HereBeFoxes said:

They were in 8th at the time and their recent form was horrible, so the method was only going to have them going lower.  Even putting in last night's result they've stll lost 4 of the last 6, so aren't (in this model) really a threat - there are only 7 interations out of 10,000 where they finish above us (them 4th, us 5th) (there was only 1 until they beat Wolves).

 

In the real world of course recent form is not going to predict the future, so one can fiddle with the probabilities to compensate.  Here for instance is one where Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, West Ham, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton and Liverpool are all given championship-winning form until the end of the season (2.2 pts/game assuming playing the average team in the division - actual points gained will be affected by the quality of the opponents in the actual fixtures, and of course the random element that is inherent in the model, and I would argue in football too) and we're given poor to mediocre form (1.3 pts/game):

 

Final Position Man City Man Utd Leicester Chelsea West Ham      Everton    Spurs Liverpool
1 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.2% 74.6% 10.4% 13.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
3 0.0% 17.2% 39.7% 32.7% 0.9% 3.5% 5.8% 0.3%
4 0.0% 5.9% 33.1% 29.5% 3.2% 10.7% 14.8% 1.2%
5 0.0% 1.3% 12.6% 13.4% 11.3% 22.8% 28.8% 6.1%
6 0.0% 0.3% 2.9% 6.4% 17.2% 27.1% 23.8% 13.8%
7 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.0% 23.3% 19.3% 15.2% 23.5%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 23.3% 11.1% 7.8% 28.9%
9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 16.4% 4.5% 2.9% 21.2%
10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4%
11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

 

So I think we're in a good position.  Based on this entirely theoretical model!

 

You betcha.

So I'm not going to question how you reached those percentages (largely because it's probably over my head lol). But this is what I don't understand. In the last 13 games (close to all games in 2021), we've won 8 games, drawn 3 and lost 2. ManU have won 6 drawn 6 and lost once. (I hope these numbers are right as I just scanned BBC Sport's result pages. I get not losing (bar once) gives them good form but I'm surprised between 2nd and 3rd, us and ManU it's a 74.6 to 10.4 swing. Especially over those 13 games we win 27 points vs 24. I'm sure I've missed something.

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HereBeFoxes

HereBeFoxes

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Your model is completely flawed if you're going on previous results. it needs to be point expectation and then Monte Carlo it.

It is, in the words of Peter Snow, just a bit of fun, and has to start somewhere.

 

What is point expectation anyway?  If one decides in advance exactly how many points each team will get, or what the outcome of each match will be, there's no need to monte carlo, there's just one answer...

 

So one has to assign probabilities to each of the three outcomes for each match, and then monte carlo the lot.  You can do that subjectively, or using past results, or randomly, or whatever...  I chose initially to use past 6 results as I had the data to hand, then did one where I manually gave various contenders very high probabilities of winning (though never 100% - football doesn't work like that IMO).

 

If anyone wants to make a list for me their assessment of the probability of each of the 3 outcomes (home win, draw, away win) for each of the remaining 93 fixtures in a table form I'll be happy to run their scenario for them :)

 

 

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HereBeFoxes

HereBeFoxes

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hoopla10 said:

So I'm not going to question how you reached those percentages (largely because it's probably over my head lol). But this is what I don't understand. In the last 13 games (close to all games in 2021), we've won 8 games, drawn 3 and lost 2. ManU have won 6 drawn 6 and lost once. (I hope these numbers are right as I just scanned BBC Sport's result pages. I get not losing (bar once) gives them good form but I'm surprised between 2nd and 3rd, us and ManU it's a 74.6 to 10.4 swing. Especially over those 13 games we win 27 points vs 24. I'm sure I've missed something.

 

In the scenarios detailed in that table it was assumed that all of our rivals suddenly found fantastic form, equivalant to them having won 8 and drawn 4 of the last 12, and us having a drop in form equivalent to having won 4, drawn 4 and lost 4 - hence the big swing to Man U; but notably we're still 3rd in 50% of iterations.

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Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, HereBeFoxes said:

It is, in the words of Peter Snow, just a bit of fun, and has to start somewhere.

 

What is point expectation anyway?  If one decides in advance exactly how many points each team will get, or what the outcome of each match will be, there's no need to monte carlo, there's just one answer...

 

So one has to assign probabilities to each of the three outcomes for each match, and then monte carlo the lot.  You can do that subjectively, or using past results, or randomly, or whatever...  I chose initially to use past 6 results as I had the data to hand, then did one where I manually gave various contenders very high probabilities of winning (though never 100% - football doesn't work like that IMO).

 

If anyone wants to make a list for me their assessment of the probability of each of the 3 outcomes (home win, draw, away win) for each of the remaining 93 fixtures in a table form I'll be happy to run their scenario for them :)

 

 

 

If you can be bothered you look on Betfair for the market prices.

 

Example Fulham vs Leeds the odds imply:

 

Fulham win 38.2% of the time

Leeds win 33.8% of the time

Draw 28% of the time

 

So the point expectation is Fulham 1.43pts (38.2% of the time they get three points and 28% one point)

Leeds point expectation for that match is 1.29pts

 

You'd have to guess the prices for most matches by looking at how the prices are for similar matches but I appreciate that's a lot of effort and you likely won't do it. The points spread betting will work on a very similar model and is already here so I find this far more accurate than any other method.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 

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HereBeFoxes

HereBeFoxes

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

If you can be bothered you look on Betfair for the market prices.

 

Example Fulham vs Leeds the odds imply:

 

Fulham win 38.2% of the time

Leeds win 33.8% of the time

Draw 28% of the time

 

So the point expectation is Fulham 1.43pts (38.2% of the time they get three points and 28% one point)

Leeds point expectation for that match is 1.29pts

 

You'd have to guess the prices for most matches by looking at how the prices are for similar matches but I appreciate that's a lot of effort and you likely won't do it. The points spread betting will work on a very similar model and is already here so I find this far more accurate than any other method.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 


Hmm, I’d be interested to try using the effectively crowdsourced probabilities from Betfair, but as a betfair virgin a quick poke about on their site didn’t lead me to find any odds in the form you lost above - if someone with more knowledge than me can point me at where I could maybe scrape the data I’ll flex my old spider coding fingers and see what I can do...

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Gubbins

Gubbins

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Koke said:

 

Liverpool have a relative easy fixtures but they have Champions League in April and remember they've lost against Burnley, Brighton, Fulham etc in recent weeks. I'm on the fence with Liverpool. They have the players to go on a run but do they have the belief and mentality? Not so sure.

I'm not even sure they have the players anymore either. Their best players from last season are either injured (Henderson, Van Dijk) or been massively off form for a large chunk of the season (Mane, TAA, Robertson). I think Klopps version of intense, non stop pressing that theyve employed for over 3 seasons has finally burnt them out, much like what happened with Pochettinos Spurs in the last 6/8 months of his time there. I'd be very surprised if they got more than 65 points at this point and if we cant achieve more than that then I doubt we make top 4 anyway.

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Stevosevic said:

West ham game is huge.

 

It's quite plausible they're playing to go above us that day 

I can't see them beating Arsenal. Wolves away isn't easy either. If we can pick up at least a point vs them then I think that's them done.

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Nod.E

Nod.E

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On 15/03/2021 at 16:55, HereBeFoxes said:

Leicester come top 0.1% of the time, second 44.6% of the time, third 41.4% of the time, fourth 12.8%, fifth 1.3% and 6th 0.2%

 

 

350.png

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harpendenfox

harpendenfox

Posted
Posted

This thread is going to get so complex during the international break. I can see contributors debating whether it all comes down to the outcome of a midfield tussle between Wilf and Noble in the 28th minute of the West Ham tie. If Wilf wins that and is able to then pass the ball forwards at least 8 metres, we are home and hosed.

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