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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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7 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I very much doubt now that we'll go into those final matches with the Champions League sown up. I just hope we can get out of next week fixtures still at least 4 points clear of 5th. That gives us a run of four matches against bottom half teams to extend that cushion and take a lot of the pressure away from those final three.

 

I just did a quick prediction of the run-in and had ourselves, Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea all end up on 68 points, with Spurs on 67.

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12 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I very much doubt now that we'll go into those final matches with the Champions League sown up. I just hope we can get out of next week fixtures still at least 4 points clear of 5th. That gives us a run of four matches against bottom half teams to extend that cushion and take a lot of the pressure away from those final three.

 

I just did a quick prediction of the run-in and had ourselves, Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea all end up on 68 points, with Spurs on 67.

I think most people know (or at least should know) that. It's all about opening as big a gap as possible over the next 5 games so that if the worst case happens and we only pick up a point or two, we will make it across the line.

 

This weekend's game is massive but it decides nothing. If we avoid defeat, West Ham lose at least 2 of their potential points. If we win, we really put some distance between us and them. However, then comes the bread and butter. 4 games that on paper we should get a good chunk of points in and hope that other teams slip up or at best get the same points as us.

 

With the semi final coming up, beating West Ham would be a massive confidence boost so I think it would give us more than just 3 points (and 6 points on our rival for Top 4).

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Really fascinating run in now.  I nervously think that 4 wins against anybody will be good enough.  I'm almost certain that 4 wins would be enough if one of those wins were against West Ham or Chelsea.

 

5 wins against anybody would definitely do it, I can't see two of the chasing pack going on a run that would push us out if we ended up with 71 points.

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Warning - past performance is no indicator of future performance, but I thought it might be possible to gain a crumb of comfort looking back.

 

Last season, as we all know, our worst run of form came in our last 8 games from which we took just 8 points while Man U and Chelsea went on outrageously good runs. And we can all remember Morgan, Bennett, Justin, Thomas and Hirst labouring through those matches

 

This season, our worst 8 game run in the Premier League started at Liverpool away, and ended with Palace away. We took just 11 points from those 8 games. If, just for fun, we imagine our best XI this season (so JJ plays instead of Ricardo) looking something like this: Schmeichel Castagne Evans Soyuncu Justin Ndidi Tielemans Albrighton Maddison Barnes Vardy, there were 28 times that players from that XI failed to start in that run, an average of 3.5 first choice players missing per game. I know there's room for arguing that Praet's more a starter than Albrighton, or Fofana more than just about anyone, but it's run of injuries etc that reminds us of last season.

 

A run as bad as that is of course possible, as are more injuries. But looking at things positively, 11 more points might well be enough (I'd say 50-50) to secure a CL spot. 12 is the magic figure used by @Les-TA-Jon, which I think should be enough for 4th, and 13 points would almost certainly do it. It depends, obviously, who we get the points against, so if for example we got a win and two draws from the games against West Ham, Chelsea and Spurs, then I'd expect another 6 points from the other games would be enough. And we now have just JJ and Barnes missing for any time from our first XI.

 

No doubt we'll lose at least one of the four games against lower half teams, but that'll just keep it interesting!

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Just now, lcfc sheff said:

We’ve done well to get to this stage considering the injuries - wherever we place, the boys have done us proud.

European football of any description and I’ll be okay with it.

Back at the start of the season, I thought we’d be 7th at best and probably around 10th. Squad didn’t look great before we kicked off with injuries etc 

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Just now, Cardiff_Fox said:

Back at the start of the season, I thought we’d be 7th at best and probably around 10th. Squad didn’t look great before we kicked off with injuries etc 

Think we’re all in agreement it looked to thin to cope with Europe and the cup competitions - i think we’ve exceeded most expectations would you agree?

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At the start of the season, would finishing 6th and a FA cup final been considered as

a) Progress

b) Stagnation 

c) Regression.

d) Consolidation 

 

As it stands, top 4 and a potential cup final would for me be an outstanding season.

 

PS I've added consolidation as a choice as a few posters feel this is a genuine option.

Edited by MGLCFC
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Just now, honeybradger said:

I think top 6 with an FA cup final is stagnation followed by almost inevitable regression. I dont think this team can take missing out on top 4 from a good position for a second season running, if we want to move forwards then we need CL considering the position we're in.

Agree. Strange how our expectations have massively changed over such a short period.

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26 minutes ago, MGLCFC said:

At the start of the season, would finishing 6th and a FA cup final been considered as

a) Progress

b) Stagnation 

c) Regression.

 

As it stands, top 4 and a potential cup final would for me be an outstanding season.

Consolidation and I believe that's what the clubs target was for the season. Qualify for the Europa league again, progress to the later stages of one of the cups then improve the squad further before pushing for top 4 the following season.   

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1 minute ago, turlo said:

Consolidation and I believe that's what the clubs target was for the season. Qualify for the Europa league again, progress to the later stages of one of the cups then improve the squad further before pushing for top 4 the following season.   

I agree, finishing in the top 6th of the top flight for only the 5th time since post war (76 years) can never been seen as stagation. 

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1 hour ago, MGLCFC said:

At the start of the season, would finishing 6th and a FA cup final been considered as

a) Progress

b) Stagnation 

c) Regression.

d) Consolidation 

 

As it stands, top 4 and a potential cup final would for me be an outstanding season.

 

PS I've added consolidation as an option as a few posters feel this is a genuine option.

Tough question, but...

  • 5-6 is D
  • 1-4 is A
  • 7th and below is C

Do not feel stagnation is evident this season, and it’s unlikely to suddenly materialise in this last chunk of games.

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4 minutes ago, FoxinNotts said:

5th and a cup final is progression. It just is. Plot it on a graph, and the curve would point upward (no matter how slight the incline!).

In the context of football teams that go through cycles of improvement followed by regression, rather than improving linearly every year, slight improvement is the same as stagnation, as it means the team is unlikely to progress any further and has found its level. Just because, in theory, we get to the FA cup final and just miss out on CL this season, doesnt mean we're going to get either of those next season, in fact it usually means the opposite and that we would do worse the following years.

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1 hour ago, lcfc sheff said:

We’ve done well to get to this stage considering the injuries - wherever we place, the boys have done us proud.

European football of any description and I’ll be okay with it.

We've done brilliant and, like you I'm dead proud of them all. 

I do think dropping out of the top 4 again would be massively disappointing and could have a big effect on squad and manager retention. 

 

I still think we'll be OK though, as our squad is more resilient and better equipped than last year💙👍

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As I see it a slight sense of insecurity seems to be creeping in here. After having lost to Man City (expected....) and West Ham having beaten Wolves (expected??) our form is still good. Apart from the Arsenal match we have done what we could. Injured players are coming back and we should be relatively comfortable being able to make it over the line and finish 3rd. Of course there will be "rocks on the path" of the run in - but that goes for all other teams as well. Chelsea a good example of it. I don´t see why we shouldn´t be able to pick up several points in the last 3 matches - we have done mostly well against "better" sides (and the opposite at supposedly weaker ones....). Keep the Faith :)

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18 minutes ago, FoxinNotts said:

5th and a cup final is progression. It just is. Plot it on a graph, and the curve would point upward (no matter how slight the incline!).

Football aint played in graphs....Its not Based on boardroom or shareholder vocabulary antics....

The ups and downs....Frustration & Ecstasy gives us the romance...

I Dong Need stats..because we are that Next game from either an upturn or Downturn of form, its the journey the Profits of success & those niches of failures,

the unknown outcome of the day or any given period that gives me the joy of being a fan....

I get irritated ,frustrated , But Dont go Chasing areas of blame, we compete in the Sporting Theater of life, Leicester my team, are just One of the acts & Dramass

that plays out before us.....Sticking it on a stats board, can only lead to disappointment....because its Not Really  "following" the game...

for what it is.....Sport is not about Proving anything...only Maybe for the participants.....

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24 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Football aint played in graphs....Its not Based on boardroom or shareholder vocabulary antics....

The ups and downs....Frustration & Ecstasy gives us the romance...

I Dong Need stats..because we are that Next game from either an upturn or Downturn of form, its the journey the Profits of success & those niches of failures,

the unknown outcome of the day or any given period that gives me the joy of being a fan....

I get irritated ,frustrated , But Dont go Chasing areas of blame, we compete in the Sporting Theater of life, Leicester my team, are just One of the acts & Dramass

that plays out before us.....Sticking it on a stats board, can only lead to disappointment....because its Not Really  "following" the game...

for what it is.....Sport is not about Proving anything...only Maybe for the participants.....

Cool story 

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52 minutes ago, honeybradger said:

In the context of football teams that go through cycles of improvement followed by regression, rather than improving linearly every year, slight improvement is the same as stagnation, as it means the team is unlikely to progress any further and has found its level. Just because, in theory, we get to the FA cup final and just miss out on CL this season, doesnt mean we're going to get either of those next season, in fact it usually means the opposite and that we would do worse the following years.

Great. Hope we continue to progress gradually, and stagnate at the top of the table, for a little while

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