2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[The_77]

50 minutes ago, Swarles Barkley said:

The pessimist in me thinks its gonna be kanes last game for Tottenham and he’ll go out with a bang  

Yep, you just know it. That’s absolutely happening, so I’d suggest we all prepare for it and accept it. 

[nnfox]

Everton have too many injuries, I don't see them having enough to get anywhere near.

Spurs are imploding under Mourinho and can't see them making it.

West Ham won't do it.  They have too many injuries.  Antonio, Rice, Ogbonna and now potentially Noble and Cresswell gone.

Therefore, it's between us, Liverpool and Chelsea.  

 

The good news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  The bad news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  That game could well be a cup final for us.  Ironically, it is scheduled for the actual Cup Final day, and could be the actual Cup Final.

[foxfan92]

37 minutes ago, nnfox said:

Everton have too many injuries, I don't see them having enough to get anywhere near.

Spurs are imploding under Mourinho and can't see them making it.

West Ham won't do it.  They have too many injuries.  Antonio, Rice, Ogbonna and now potentially Noble and Cresswell gone.

Therefore, it's between us, Liverpool and Chelsea.  

 

The good news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  The bad news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  That game could well be a cup final for us.  Ironically, it is scheduled for the actual Cup Final day, and could be the actual Cup Final.

I cant be the only person having a horrible sense of deja vu.

[Nalis]

Everton's last 3 were winnable and they only got 2 poins from the lot. Even if they got 7 points from the last 9 available they'd be 3 behind ua with a game in hand.

 

Think they can almost be discounted at this stage.

 

[nnfox]

19 minutes ago, foxfan92 said:

I cant be the only person having a horrible sense of deja vu.

Certainly memories of last season are creeping in.  This is where the mental strength of Brendan and the squad comes in because they will be starting to doubt themselves, it's only natural and to be expected.  They have to put those doubts behind them and go for it.  

 

It really isn't going to be easy.  West Brom have found some form and belief.  Crystal Palace have been something of a bogey team for us.  Southampton in the league will be difficult having played them so soon in the cup - will be a cagey game.  Newcastle seem to have one good game in 6 - hopefully that won't be against us.  Man Utd at Old Trafford will be difficult - my hope would be that they might have secured CL football and have qualified for Europa Final so will have one eye on that.   Chelsea is massive.  By the time we play Spurs, we'll know what (if anything) we'll need to do.

 

We have enough quality, but if we lose the semi final, then we go into that final run in on the back of three defeats.

[Ricey]

2 hours ago, nnfox said:

Everton have too many injuries, I don't see them having enough to get anywhere near.

Spurs are imploding under Mourinho and can't see them making it.

West Ham won't do it.  They have too many injuries.  Antonio, Rice, Ogbonna and now potentially Noble and Cresswell gone.

Therefore, it's between us, Liverpool and Chelsea.  

 

The good news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  The bad news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  That game could well be a cup final for us.  Ironically, it is scheduled for the actual Cup Final day, and could be the actual Cup Final.

I can already see countless discussions on here as to whether you'd sooner win the cup final against Chelsea or pick up 3 points against them in the league.

[nnfox]

Just now, Ricey said:

I can already see countless discussions on here as to whether you'd sooner win the cup final against Chelsea or pick up 3 points against them in the league.

Yeah definitely.  If the FA Cup final is between us and Chelsea, maybe just count it as a league game too?  3 points for the winner.  Get it done in one day!

[Ricey]

1 minute ago, nnfox said:

Yeah definitely.  If the FA Cup final is between us and Chelsea, maybe just count it as a league game too?  3 points for the winner.  Get it done in one day!

I don't think I could deal with the football hangover from that defeat.

[CosbehFox]

If Chelsea or ourselves make the final, it does create an interesting situation . Our league moves from its planned date to midweek. West Ham and Liverpool with fortunate fixtures get to rack the pressure up. 

[davieG]

Well we're certainly in danger of being this season's Bridesmaids again. Here's hoping the player rise to the occasions and start performing for 90+ minutes each game.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Let's just keep in mind, that unless we slip to 7th or 8th, missing out on Champions League for a 2nd season in a row, does not constitute failure or a bad season. We will have still gone from a non-established mid-table side to finishing top 6 two years in a row. 

 

I get that psychologically, as fans, and maybe even for the squad, it would feel differently, but you've got to keep that wider perspective too. 

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Let's just keep in mind, that unless we slip to 7th or 8th, missing out on Champions League for a 2nd season in a row, does not constitute failure or a bad season. We will have still gone from a non-established mid-table side to finishing top 6 two years in a row. 

 

I get that psychologically, as fans, and maybe even for the squad, it would feel differently, but you've got to keep that wider perspective too. 

I agree, but be ready for a lot of disagreement.

[enmac]

6 hours ago, nnfox said:

Everton have too many injuries, I don't see them having enough to get anywhere near.

Spurs are imploding under Mourinho and can't see them making it.

West Ham won't do it.  They have too many injuries.  Antonio, Rice, Ogbonna and now potentially Noble and Cresswell gone.

Therefore, it's between us, Liverpool and Chelsea.  

 

The good news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  The bad news is that we still have to play Chelsea.  That game could well be a cup final for us.  Ironically, it is scheduled for the actual Cup Final day, and could be the actual Cup Final.

Wow. Potentially 2 Cup finals with Chelsea. Has any team lost 2 Cup finals to the same team in one season? 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

3 minutes ago, enmac said:

Wow. Potentially 2 Cup finals with Chelsea. Has any team lost 2 Cup finals to the same team in one season? 

Sheffield Wednesday lost to Arsenal in both the League Cup final and FA Cup final in 1993.

[Detroit Blues]

I'm sure it's been beaten to death, but how does Chelsea potentially winning the champions league impact the champions league qualification spots in the premier league if they finish in the top 4 vs out of the top 4? 

[nnfox]

1 minute ago, Detroit Blues said:

I'm sure it's been beaten to death, but how does Chelsea potentially winning the champions league impact the champions league qualification spots in the premier league if they finish in the top 4 vs out of the top 4? 

It won't be a problem, we'll have 5 teams in the CL.  The only fly in the ointment is if Chelsea win CL and finish outside top 4 AND Arsenal win Europa League and finish outside top 4.  THEN only top 3 qualify for CL.

[Ross 'LCFC' Turner]

2 minutes ago, Detroit Blues said:

I'm sure it's been beaten to death, but how does Chelsea potentially winning the champions league impact the champions league qualification spots in the premier league if they finish in the top 4 vs out of the top 4? 

It would all rest on Arsenal.

 

If Chelsea finish outside the top 4 and win the Champions league, we'll have 5 representatives from England.

 

If Chelsea finish outside the top 4 & Arsenal win the Europa, 4th will miss out. 

[KrefelderFox666]

2 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

If Chelsea or ourselves make the final, it does create an interesting situation . Our league moves from its planned date to midweek. West Ham and Liverpool with fortunate fixtures get to rack the pressure up. 

I think the fixture would be played the midweek before the FA Cup final though as they are looking to move the PL fixtures back a week to accommodate two matches (and thus every club) to have supporters in attendance.

[dannythefox]

Need to win in the cup and then two league wins on the bounce in my opinion, plus I think it’s West Ham Chelsea next week which is a massive bonus for us if we win. Need to be 4/5 points clear going in to the last 3 games.

[Jon the Hat]

5 minutes ago, dannythefox said:

Need to win in the cup and then two league wins on the bounce in my opinion, plus I think it’s West Ham Chelsea next week which is a massive bonus for us if we win. Need to be 4/5 points clear going in to the last 3 games.

We need to win the next 4 imo.  Then it's in our hands, if we don't we will be outside the Top 4 and won't get back in.

[urban fox]

looking at the remaining fixtures we certainly seem to have the toughest run in (again). That said, i am sure that chelsea, spurs and utd will be looking at those fixtures and be a little worried about needing to get something from them too, so it is important that we garner as many points as possible in our next four games. That will put the pressure firmly on them to get a result and that will suit us. I still think we can get points from those last three games, and that means our rivals will also have dropped points in those games. Chelsea could be absolutely massive either way and possibly a double header (if we both were to win our semi finals) which could make or break either clubs seasons.  If that came to pass, for the record, i would rather beat them in a cup final than take 3 points in the league even at the expense of missing out on CL.

On the debate re 4th place missing out if teams outside top 4 win CL and EL, if Man city (or chelsea if they finish top 4) were to win CL, and a non english club win EL, i presume that we would then only have 3 teams qualify for CL and the extra european place would drop down to the EL places rather than 5th place getting the fourth CL spot?

[SixtiesFox]

It's on a knife edge. After the Man U game we were riding the crest of a wave: Favourable draw in the semi-final, big opportunity to put daylight between us and West Ham upcoming after a tilt at Man City and injured players returning to full fitness. What could go wrong? Then a combination of circumstances contrive to put a huge spanner in the works. Soyuncu contracts Covid, we fail to lay a glove on Man City and then 'Party-Gate' ushers in the shambolic performance against West Ham. With our points cushion all but evaporated what next? Bottom line is our fate is still in our own hands so we don't have to rely on what other teams do. First off we need to restore morale. Not so much the impact of two defeats on the bounce, but repairing the rift that now exists within the squad. Let's hope Rodgers' level-headed approach to this self-inflicted crisis combined with a no-holds-barred squad meeting really will draw a line under last week's debacle. We simply have to move on. Looking at the recent parallels with our women's team - hopefully our men can mirror their response. They pulled together and repaired the damage done with their performances on the field. Galvanized by a siege mentality, as the press, pundits and social media will be chomping at the bit to kick us while we're down, we still have every chance of maintaining control over our own destiny. There is enough quality in the squad to do it and for our remaining games we could be drawing upon the fittest squad of players we've had available at any time this season. An FA Cup semi-final against Southampton is the perfect opportunity to get back on track. It's a one off game; winner takes all. Win it and we have our first cup final in over 50 years to look forward to - a monumental moment in our club's history. Take the wave of positivity that will come with that achievement into our next 4 games and a 10 point haul is not an outlandish expectation. If we are to secure a top 4 finish that is what we're going to need to do. Then, going into our last 3 games against 3 teams we've not lost to this season, we'll be odds on to do it! A realistic scenario? Absolutely! What could go wrong?  

[Raw Dykes]

55 minutes ago, urban fox said:

On the debate re 4th place missing out if teams outside top 4 win CL and EL, if Man city (or chelsea if they finish top 4) were to win CL, and a non english club win EL, i presume that we would then only have 3 teams qualify for CL and the extra european place would drop down to the EL places rather than 5th place getting the fourth CL spot?

Top 4 qualifies for CL. Doesn't make any difference if one of them wins the CL.

 

We only need to be worried about 4th place not getting CL if both the Cl and EL are won by clubs finishing outside the top 4.

[Scanchez]

I'd be amazed if we made top 4 now.

At least 2 of Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us, I reckon.

Hope to God I'm wrong.

[Steve Earle]

14 hours ago, Gerard said:

On the spreads there is 1pt advantage for us with a point expectation of 67.5pts for us and 66.5pts for all three of Liverpool, Chelsea and West Ham. The time to be counted is now.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

And they're right, we're still slight favourites to qualify.

 

But more than 3 dropped points from our next four would see that change dramatically.