2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Raw Dykes]

2 hours ago, Foxaholic ME said:

If we cant beat a team we beat 9-1 away at home  ad given no chance  correctly  against one we beat 5-2  away   there is nopremier side we are certain to beat   so I  agree   but  human nature it is 

9-0!

[Leicester_Loyal]

Everton now need to win 7 (or win 6 and draw 3) of their last 9, to reach 68 points. They also have a GD of 3, which is miles off the pace.

 

 

[Ross 'LCFC' Turner]

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Everton now need to win 7 (or win 6 and draw 3) of their last 9, to reach 68 points. They also have a GD of 3, which is miles off the pace.

 

 

Off the top of my head I can think of them losing at home to Newcastle, Burnley, Fulham & drawing with Crystal Palace just. They must be so frustrated because a win tonight would of taken them right in the mixer with a game in hand. When I watch them, they always flatter to deceive and I think a lot of their side are bang average, so I can’t understand how they are still in the top 4 picture 

[Leicester_Loyal]

6 minutes ago, Ross 'LCFC' Turner said:

Off the top of my head I can think of them losing at home to Newcastle, Burnley, Fulham & drawing with Crystal Palace just. They must be so frustrated because a win tonight would of taken them right in the mixer with a game in hand. When I watch them, they always flatter to deceive and I think a lot of their side are bang average, so I can’t understand how they are still in the top 4 picture 

No European football really IMO, it massively helps having a fresh 11 every week. If they lose James this summer they'll look much worse, he's been a key player for them. Usually you only need to win 15 or 16 games out of 38 to be in and around the top 4 until the final few weeks of the season as well,

 

You can tell they struggle though, look at their GD. I really thought they'd be a bit better than they have been this year, oh well!

[Ric Flair]

9 minutes ago, Ross 'LCFC' Turner said:

Off the top of my head I can think of them losing at home to Newcastle, Burnley, Fulham & drawing with Crystal Palace just. They must be so frustrated because a win tonight would of taken them right in the mixer with a game in hand. When I watch them, they always flatter to deceive and I think a lot of their side are bang average, so I can’t understand how they are still in the top 4 picture 

Even more annoying is we failed to beat them home or away. 

[Beachyboy]

8 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Ahh...Now I understand...you  actually are One of those weirdos, that believe there are games we "should" win..

By the way the Bundesliga is Never any good as an example of Stats......Bundesliga games are the cynical opposite of Roy of the Rovers stuff,

With Bayern Coming out always (99.8%) on top....If they Trip up & get dirty,they will Comeback Smelling of Roses....

I judge every game on merit, as it takes place, we were outplayed by Leeds at home because our level was lower and they were more clinical than they were at Elland Road an those 10-20% swings either way can make the difference between a 4-1 win and a 3-1 loss, take the FA cup semi final draw I see a lot of comments about playing City in the final, no game is a gimmie, any result is possible but bottom line regarding Leicester this season, its in our hands, a draw for me against West Ham is a good result.

[OhYesNdidi]

1 minute ago, Beachyboy said:

I judge every game on merit, as it takes place, we were outplayed by Leeds at home because our level was lower and they were more clinical than they were at Elland Road an those 10-20% swings either way can make the difference between a 4-1 win and a 3-1 loss, take the FA cup semi final draw I see a lot of comments about playing City in the final, no game is a gimmie, any result is possible but bottom line regarding Leicester this season, its in our hands, a draw for me against West Ham is a good result.

We were out played against leeds because we had no midfield presence due to Ndidi being out so they were able to waltz straight through it and Perez putting in, and I’m not exaggerating, probably the worst centre forward performance in the last 5 years. Ndidi and Vardy playing, we win imo. 

[fuchsntf]

4 minutes ago, Beachyboy said:

I judge every game on merit, as it takes place, we were outplayed by Leeds at home because our level was lower and they were more clinical than they were at Elland Road an those 10-20% swings either way can make the difference between a 4-1 win and a 3-1 loss, take the FA cup semi final draw I see a lot of comments about playing City in the final, no game is a gimmie, any result is possible but bottom line regarding Leicester this season, its in our hands, a draw for me against West Ham is a good result.

Agree with that....

[UpTheLeagueFox]

We have 2 more points than this stage last season when we were 3 points clear of Chelsea and 8 ahead of Man U & Wolves.

Now we're 4 clear of West Ham, 5 ahead of Chelsea, (potentially only 6 in front of Everton), and 7 above Liverpool and Spurs.

 

We got just 8 points from our last 8 games last season when we were on the slide, loss of confidence, injuries/suspensions, coupled with an insane ManU run (W6 D2 of last 8). Chelsea W5 L3 in their run in.

We go into the last 8 with decent form and confidence, not many missing plus the excitement of FA Cup still there.

 

If we "only" get 10 pts from 8 games, two of the chasing sides would need a minimum of:

WHU 14/24

Chelsea 15/24

Liverpool and Spurs 17/24

 

With WBA, Palace, Newcastle, Soton among our remaining games, we're in a strong position, as much as we try and talk ourselves out of it!

 

[Chocolate Teapot]

Whats more stressful....this or a relegation fight?

 

Wilf absolutely vital on Sunday. Feels like a pivotal game. If we lose it'll feel like all is lost which in reality it isn't.

[TJB-fox]

1 minute ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Whats more stressful....this or a relegation fight?

 

Wilf absolutely vital on Sunday. Feels like a pivotal game. If we lose it'll feel like all is lost which in reality it isn't.

How about a premier league title charge?  have you ever had a season of football consume your life so much? Constantly checking fixtures, goal differences, results. First thing you think of when you wake up and last thing when you go to sleep. 
 

I’ve got to admit I’m slightly less stressed at this point of the season  than I was last year 

[AmyLGK]

I've a bad feeling about this (bloody west ham). I was confident before the international break...Im not anymore.  

[st albans fox]

Plenty of those West Ham players will be looking at this and thinking it’s probably their only ever chance of making the champions league in their careers.  The vast majority of our lot have either done it or know that they will do so with their next club ..... is there a motivation issue between us and West Ham as a consequence?? (We saw in 15/16 how this ‘chance in a lifetime’ worked out mentally amongst our boys. I know it can go the other way). 

 

 

[Ric Flair]

52 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Plenty of those West Ham players will be looking at this and thinking it’s probably their only ever chance of making the champions league in their careers.  The vast majority of our lot have either done it or know that they will do so with their next club ..... is there a motivation issue between us and West Ham as a consequence?? (We saw in 15/16 how this ‘chance in a lifetime’ worked out mentally amongst our boys. I know it can go the other way). 

 

 

Possibly, but this mentality shift is what Rodgers has been working on and the main reason he came here. There's a project to change the whole identity of the club to that of an elite one and this will be a huge test of our mental progression from the same stage last season. We have seemingly improved when under pressure this season compared to last, Sunday is another on of those tests. Feels pivotal and this is where our superstars need to earn their wedginals.

[Vazman]

14 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Possibly, but this mentality shift is what Rodgers has been working on and the main reason he came here. There's a project to change the whole identity of the club to that of an elite one and this will be a huge test of our mental progression from the same stage last season. We have seemingly improved when under pressure this season compared to last, Sunday is another on of those tests. Feels pivotal and this is where our superstars need to earn their wedginals.

Well said couldn't agree more.

[majaco]

We can't play ourselves in the final.  We are City.  

[davieG]

38 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Possibly, but this mentality shift is what Rodgers has been working on and the main reason he came here. There's a project to change the whole identity of the club to that of an elite one and this will be a huge test of our mental progression from the same stage last season. We have seemingly improved when under pressure this season compared to last, Sunday is another on of those tests. Feels pivotal and this is where our superstars need to earn their wedginals.

There's a massive incentive for Rodgers to get us that CL spot. He almost can't afford to let us slide as a failure by us again on top of last year and the Liverpool collapse would be a colossal blot on his CV. Nearly man goes nowhere near describing it.

[Chocolate Teapot]

34 minutes ago, davieG said:

There's a massive incentive for Rodgers to get us that CL spot. He almost can't afford to let us slide as a failure by us again on top of last year and the Liverpool collapse would be a colossal blot on his CV. Nearly man goes nowhere near describing it.

You could have said the same last year. It won't be for the want of trying! Fortunately I don't think we'll be relying on a back 3 of Morgan, Evans and Bennett in the run in.

[davieG]

4 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

You could have said the same last year. It won't be for the want of trying! Fortunately I don't think we'll be relying on a back 3 of Morgan, Evans and Bennett in the run in.

Sure but 3 times is starting to look like a pattern so the motivation should be greater as the failure will likely have a bigger impact.

 

As for not  relying on a back 3 of Morgan, Evans and Bennett that would mean any failure would be considered much worse.

 

Simply put he needs to succeed more than the players.

 

 

[sdb]

I love these threads but boy do they stress me out! Especially after last season when we had something like an 85% chance of top 4 and yet I just knew we'd blow it.

 

I'm more confident this year but still think it'll get horribly uncomfortable at best. West Ham will be so, so up for it on Sunday and I just hope we can match that desire as we are the better side on paper. 

Edited 6 April 2021 by sdb

[Ric Flair]

6 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

You could have said the same last year. It won't be for the want of trying! Fortunately I don't think we'll be relying on a back 3 of Morgan, Evans and Bennett in the run in.

You sense that he won't always be a nearly man and looking back on last season the wheels were well and truly off from January, we were scrabbling around for points pre pandemic. 

 

We have been hit with injury after injury and quickly regrouped and still managed to not deviate too much from around 1.8 - 2 points a game. It would take a real drop off now over a short space of time which although is possible, would be sudden. We are playing well, we have Maddison and Praet now back and although Soyuncu being potentially out of Sundays game is a blow I think we will be very well prepared for it. We will be smarting from that 3-0 home defeat against them and I don't see us coming away with anything less than a draw but I think Vardy wins it for us.

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE 6th April 

 

Just to give the full picture after the last round of fixtures

 

65-68 points is the goal. Avoid defeat vs West Ham and win any other 3 matches and I think we've done it.

 

Just as before really - Spurs, Liverpool, Everton, Villa and Arsenal all have to do something crazy like win 7 or 8 of their final games, or in some cases like Villa and Arsenal, get maximum points. 

 

Spurs/Liverpool could always 'click' and win 7 or 8 of their matches. And note that Spurs, Liverpool and West Ham don't play each other. Chelsea vs West Ham on the 24th could be crucial. 

 

I've added data for points gained and dropped points for the Previous 5 matches, since we're now down to single figures of remaining games. So we can now see overall, previous 10 and previous 5 for points per game and dropped points per game. 

 

Points Required 

 

 

Droppable Points

 

 

Fixtures

 

 

EDIT: had some colour coding wrong

Edited 6 April 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Still having four of the top six to play (baring in mind we are one of the top six and have just played Man City) is savage. We need to win all four of the "easier" games, no excuses.

[Les-TA-Jon]

6 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Still having four of the top six to play (baring in mind we are one of the top six and have just played Man City) is savage. We need to win all four of the "easier" games, no excuses.

I agree that those 3 fixtures are 'less reliable' for points. But we got 7 out of 9 in the return fixtures. I'm not sure why so many people are saying, deterministically, that we can't get any points from those games. 

[Ricey]

5 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I agree that those 3 fixtures are 'less reliable' for points. But we got 7 out of 9 in the return fixtures. I'm not sure why so many people are saying, deterministically, that we can't get any points from those games. 

I very much doubt now that we'll go into those final matches with the Champions League sown up. I just hope we can get out of next week fixtures still at least 4 points clear of 5th. That gives us a run of four matches against bottom half teams to extend that cushion and take a lot of the pressure away from those final three.

 

I just did a quick prediction of the run-in and had ourselves, Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea all end up on 68 points, with Spurs on 67.