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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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Ricey

Ricey

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Am I being mad or is me thinking us getting knocked out of the top 4 before we next play might not be the worst thing?

 

We're not great as front runners but I feel more confident when we have nothing to lose.

I’ve been thinking the same. Obviously I’d prefer a 7 point cushion but might not be the worst thing in the world for us to paint ourselves as the underdogs for a bit.

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Fox in the North

Fox in the North

Posted
Posted

Genuinely had the Man City and West Ham games as losses, so sad as it is, I’m not too upset (even though the performance was very disappointing!)

 

Game - Prediction - Result

Aston Villa (A) - Draw (47) - Win (49)

Arsenal (H) - Draw (48) -Loss (49)

Burnley (A) - Win (51) - Draw (50)

Brighton (A) - Win (54) - Win (53)

Sheff U (H) - Win (57) - Win (56)

Man City (H) - Lose (57) - Lose (56)

West Ham (A) - Lose (57) - Lose (56) 

West Brom (H) - Win (60)

Crystal Palace (A) - Win (63)

Southampton (A) - Draw (64)

Newcastle (H) - Win (67)

Man U (A) - Draw (68)

Chelsea (A) - Lose (68)

Spurs (H) - Win (71)

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Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Am I being mad or is me thinking us getting knocked out of the top 4 before we next play might not be the worst thing?

 

We're not great as front runners but I feel more confident when we have nothing to lose.

 

If we're going to get top four we either do it front running or not at all.

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Steve Earle

Steve Earle

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Fox in the North said:

Genuinely had the Man City and West Ham games as losses, so sad as it is, I’m not too upset (even though the performance was very disappointing!)

 

Game - Prediction - Result

Aston Villa (A) - Draw (47) - Win (49)

Arsenal (H) - Draw (48) -Loss (49)

Burnley (A) - Win (51) - Draw (50)

Brighton (A) - Win (54) - Win (53)

Sheff U (H) - Win (57) - Win (56)

Man City (H) - Lose (57) - Lose (56)

West Ham (A) - Lose (57) - Lose (56) 

West Brom (H) - Win (60)

Crystal Palace (A) - Win (63)

Southampton (A) - Draw (64)

Newcastle (H) - Win (67)

Man U (A) - Draw (68)

Chelsea (A) - Lose (68)

Spurs (H) - Win (71)

Hmm. And we last beat West Brom at home when???

Apart from that I wouldn’t take much issue with you!

Edited by Steve Earle
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nnfox

nnfox

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

If we're going to get top four we either do it front running or not at all.

We're done for then as both West Ham and Chelsea have winnable games before our next Premier League fixture.

 

Furthermore Spurs and Liverpool could be just a point behind us and Man U out of sight.

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

Am I being mad or is me thinking us getting knocked out of the top 4 before we next play might not be the worst thing?

 

We're not great as front runners but I feel more confident when we have nothing to lose.

Can we get knocked out? Don't West Ham have Chelsea next week?

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Fox in the North

Fox in the North

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Steve Earle said:

Hmm. And we last beat West Brom at home when???

Apart from that I wouldn’t take much issue with you!

True, but I don’t think historical form counts for much in that fixture as they’ve had a huge turnaround of managers and players in recent years. I’ve gone for us to win on the basis of our squad against theirs. At the end of the day it’s only a prediction.

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deanolegend1989

deanolegend1989

Posted
Posted (edited)

Liverpool are getting to 68 points at the absolute lowest imo.

Its between us Chelsea and West Ham.

Looking at West Ham’s fixtures, I think they could quite easily get to 68 points too.

Chelsea have some tough fixtures but then have us at the Bridge.

I think to do it now we have to get to at least 69 points meaning probably will need to win the next 4 or at the very least 3 of them! Major pressure now.

The only positive out of today is that Spurs being almost out of it could mean the last game of the season could be a team needing to win vs a team on their holidays and that gives us a slight back up plan.

We need a minimum of 10 points out of the next 12 or we won’t make it unfortunately.

Edited by deanolegend1989
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hackneyfox

hackneyfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

Liverpool are getting to 68 points at the absolute lowest imo.

Its between us Chelsea and West Ham.

Looking at West Ham’s fixtures, I think they could quite easily get to 68 points too.

Chelsea have some tough fixtures but then have us at the Bridge.

I think to do it now we have to get to at least 69 points meaning probably will need to win the next 4 or at the very least 3 of them! Major pressure now.

The only positive out of today is that Spurs being almost out of it could mean the last game of the season could be a team needing to win vs a team on their holidays and that gives us a slight back up plan.

We need a minimum of 10 points out of the next 12 or we won’t make it unfortunately.

I've always gone on us losing today, winning the next four and nothing from the last three with 68 points being enough. Not sure that's now the case.

I think we can get something out of the last three, Man U may be guaranted CL football, Spurs season may be over. We've taken 4 points and an FA Cup win off them over the three games this season.

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted

We do better in the 'must wins' rather than the 'must not lose' games basically because we seem crap at playing for a draw and usually lose those type of games.

 

Thats why I think we'll lose to Chelsea if its must not lose by that point. Quite confident about the Man Utd game as they'll probably have top 4 wrapped up by then and might have an eye on the Europa League final.

 

Spurs in the last game - the optimist in me thinks Harry Kane wont want to risk injury before the Euros if Spurs are playing for nothing by then, same for Bale if he's picked. Could work in our favour.

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Fox in the North

Fox in the North

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

We do better in the 'must wins' rather than the 'must not lose' games basically because we seem crap at playing for a draw and usually lose those type of games.

 

Thats why I think we'll lose to Chelsea if its must not lose by that point. Quite confident about the Man Utd game as they'll probably have top 4 wrapped up by then and might have an eye on the Europa League final.

 

Spurs in the last game - the optimist in me thinks Harry Kane wont want to risk injury before the Euros if Spurs are playing for nothing by then, same for Bale if he's picked. Could work in our favour.

Personally I think the last 3 games look worse on paper than what they actually are; and I think we got burned badly from the last 3 games of last season too!

 

Chelsea have been pretty solid since Tuchel came in, but as we’ve seen this season and against West Brom recently, they are vulnerable.

 

We’ve finally been able to beat Man United comprehensively and we’ve drawn against them earlier this year. If they still have Europe to deal with, there’s no reason why we can’t get a draw or better from them.

 

Lastly Spurs are so hot and cold with their performances. Their team seems to have all the hall marks of the typical Mourinho meltdown at any moment. Again we were able to beat them pretty solidly at their place. If we have everyone back and fit for that game, I think we can definitely draw or beat them. 

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RowlattsFox

RowlattsFox

Posted
Posted

I understand the comparisons to last year but for me its different scenarios. We had a huge lead last year, was it 14 points at best? But was shite from before Christmas onwards. We even then only had to get a result in one other game and that would have been enough to finish 4th. 

 

We had ourselves a little lead a couple of weeks ago but its been a tight season and the teams below have always been in touching distance. This group of players deserve a season in the champions league, even if we are unable to sustain next year. Best part of 2 seasons inside the top 4 is brilliant really, especially when you consider the overall squad we have. Rodgers has done brilliantly to keep us up there for so long so would be a massive shame if we throw it away again and you will have to question the mentality to get over the line from the players and Rodgers. It will be a huge missed opportunity because you'd expect Chelsea, Liverpool to be better and Spurs/Arsenal might not be shit forever. Its massively competitive and this is our chance. 

 

10 points would be a good return from the next 4 I reckon. There is going to be slip ups at this time of the season, for everyone hopefully. I'm little be happier Newcastle are looking safer but West Ham under Allardyce could be exactly what we don't want to face given our lack of creativity, Palace always make me nervous and with the way football works sometimes, we probably won't beat Southampton twice in quick succession. Hopefully Man Utd will have eyes on europe and Spurs couldn't give a shit on the final day although Mourinho will probably have them desperate to finish 7th if it offers any back door into europe.

 

Could probably do with Liverpool beating Real Madrid, and Chelsea staying in Europe (but hoping they don't actually win it just in case) West Ham have a decent set of fixtures but can see them dropping points here and there.

 

 

 

 

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

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Posted (edited)

:brendan_still:UPDATE 12th April :brendan_still:

 

Obviously not a great weekend of results for us. Looks like the target of 68 points needs revising a little. Probably in the 68-71 points range now. 

 

Spurs, Everton, Arsenal and Villa out of it. 

 

Leicester, West Ham, Chelsea and Liverpool to duke it out for 3rd and 4th. 

 

If we're looking at 68 points - Liverpool can drop points in 2 games. Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea can drop points in 3 games. Looking tight for everyone!

 

The points per game over the previous 10 and 5 also shows us that Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool are in better form than us too. 

 

Points Required

 


Points 1204.png
 

 

Droppable Points

 


Droppable 1204.png
 

 

Fixtures

 


Fixtures 1204.png
 

Edited by Les-TA-Jon
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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I think that's Everton out of the running now, but it'll nice when it's mathematically impossible for them to catch us.

 

Everton vs. Spurs next up on Friday, think a draw would mean none of them getting top 4. I believe Spurs will win it though, Everton have a first 11 and that's about it.

Only saw the “highlights” of the Brighton Everton match, but toffees hardly featured. Don’t think they are likely to go on a run.

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Only saw the “highlights” of the Brighton Everton match, but toffees hardly featured. Don’t think they are likely to go on a run.

Yeah the bench was horrendous, I think Iwobi was the only player there who had made previous EPL appearances for them.

 

They'll win about 3 of their remaining 8 games I reckon.

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Swarles Barkley

Swarles Barkley

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Nalis said:

We do better in the 'must wins' rather than the 'must not lose' games basically because we seem crap at playing for a draw and usually lose those type of games.

 

Thats why I think we'll lose to Chelsea if its must not lose by that point. Quite confident about the Man Utd game as they'll probably have top 4 wrapped up by then and might have an eye on the Europa League final.

 

Spurs in the last game - the optimist in me thinks Harry Kane wont want to risk injury before the Euros if Spurs are playing for nothing by then, same for Bale if he's picked. Could work in our favour.

The pessimist in me thinks its gonna be kanes last game for Tottenham and he’ll go out with a bang lol 

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