2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, OrielCaziado said:

I’m very confident now. Looking at the figures and worrying about how many points we may or may not need is not the reason I’m confident.  My confidence is because of what my eyes are telling me. We look the best side in the league bar maybe Man City. I watched every game this weekend. None of the chasers look anywhere near has composed or simply as threatening as we do. Last year was the opposite. The table made me feel confident but what I was watching didn’t install the same confidence. 

Spot on, I'm not even worried. I think we'll win at least 4 of the last 9 games, with a draw or two in there as well. I also don't think any of the challengers will win 7 or 8 of their remaining games.

 

Take 3 points from Man City or WHU and we'll be laughing.

 

We could easily take 5-6 points from the last 3 games against United Chelsea and Spurs too btw.

[Xen]

8 hours ago, Jobyfox said:

The magic number is now: 77 points

 

That’s the number required if every one of our rivals got maximum points from now until the end of the season. We know this can’t happen as some of them play each other.

 

The calculated magic number is: 66 points 

 

That’s the number required if the ‘rate of drop’ to achieve 4th continues on the same trajectory as it has since the start of the season

If we maintain the same ppg average we have since the start of the season then we will achieve: 73 points 

 

This is the maths, but of course this all breaks down the closer we get to the end of the season. Short runs of form are much more possible for any team and not everyone has the same difficulty of run-in. 
 

^^^^ irrespective of the maths I’ve thought since this thread started that 68 points would probably be enough. That’s currently 4 wins or 3 wins and 3 draws in nine games. The concern would be to be wary of a purple patch/ winning run for the teams below us. West Ham, Chelsea and Spurs all look capable but, fortunately, Liverpool have shown little sign of it yet. 

I was curious, so I thought I'd have a look at what a 'magic number' might actually be if everyone else maxed-out, with fixtures against each other in mind. Turns out, there aren't that many games which come into play.

 

I grouped every side into top 8 or otherwise. A top 8 side would always win against a non-top-8 side in this model, and fixtures outside of the top 8 (e.g. Arsenal vs Brighton) were irrelevant, so the home side arbitrarily gets the win. 

For matches between the top 8 - Man City always lose (they've already wrapped up the league through other results in this model, so spread the points to our competitors. Ourselves excluded). I then manually selected the outcome of the other fixtures to push up 4th place as much as possible. Turns out that when ignoring our fixtures, 4th place will be on a max of 73 points, from various combinations of CHE/EVE/LIV/WHU. However, as CHE and WHU would have an outstanding fixture against us, I adjusted it so that they were in 4th (73) and 5th (72). This then maxes their points after playing us so that top 4 would require a minimum of 75 points + GD to sneak past Chelsea.

 

 

 

That would then leave us a target of earning 19 points from a potential 21 with these fixtures:

 

Which feels like a very tough proposition. However, this is the absolute worst case scenario, with us losing the big '6-pointers' against WHU/CHE, and all of our competitors being faultless. Any dropped points at all from them and our position looks much stronger (especially if we can take something from those aforementioned games). It's significantly more likely that 70 points - or even less - is the threshold for CL this season, which would mean earning 14/27 points.

Edited 22 March 2021 by Xen
typo

[Ric Flair]

6 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

Honestly, Spurs worry me more than anyone else.  Yes their play is dreary but they have the most talent of any of the chasers (bar Liverpool, who may be too far back) and a manager that's won at the very top level.  I could easily see them rattling off six or seven wins in their last nine matches.

Even 7 wins from 9 means we only need to get 14 points from 9 to be ahead of them, they still have Utd, Villa twice, Leeds and Everton plus us. Whenever they play anyone half decent they go for a containment job and seem to trip themselves up. 

[reynard]

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Even 7 wins from 9 means we only need to get 14 points from 9 to be ahead of them, they still have Utd, Villa twice, Leeds and Everton plus us. Whenever they play anyone half decent they go for a containment job and seem to trip themselves up. 

They beat Villa yesterday.

[hackneyfox]

8 minutes ago, reynard said:

They beat Villa yesterday.

Hopefully Grealish will be back for the next game.

Villa also have to play Man U, Liverpool & Chelsea.

[reynard]

Just now, hackneyfox said:

Hopefully Grealish will be back for the next game.

Villa also have to play Man U, Liverpool & Chelsea.

I'm afraid Villa have gone. Really don't see them getting anything much from those games even with Grealish. They were pretty hopeless yesterday.

[hackneyfox]

Yes they were, because Grrealish was missing, he's the one that dragged them up to where they are.

I'm hoping his return could do us some favours.

[Gerard]

Point Expectation has us 3rd but it looks increasingly like any two from five

 

Man Utd 74pts

Leicester 70pts

Chelsea 68.5pts

---------------------------------

Tottenham 64pts

Liverpool 64pts

West Ham 63pts

 

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

[David Hankey]

No-one knows what is going to happen from now until the end of the season apart from a Man City being the eventual winners so perhaps it would be best to wait and see.

[Ric Flair]

32 minutes ago, reynard said:

They beat Villa yesterday.

Haha completely missed that game. They still need 7 wins from 9 and we only need 14 points to be ahead of them. Massive ask of them.

[Beachyboy]

I had a mentality shift yesterday even winning 2-1 with 15 mins to go, I was fearing the worst, just like I did when we were 1-0 down to Liverpool, 1-0 down to Man city, 0-0 against Arsenal with 20 mins to go, 1-0 down at HT to Brighton, my point is we are a very good team, an if we perform even 70% of what we can between now an the end of the season we will finish 2nd or 3rd regardless of what other teams do, if we are winning games, we should be looking up in the table not down.

[SixtiesFox]

When Barnes was carried off injured it seemed as if our chances of making the top 4 were slipping away again, but what has happened since, culminating in that demolition of Man U yesterday, has changed everything. Last year, as our form disintegrated we fans focused on statistical targets that seemed to favour us and found solace in the fact that others would and did stumble: Chelsea v West Ham, Southampton's last minute equalizer at Old Trafford. We suffered through the last 10 games in hope rather than expectation. This time it's totally different. Our team has survived a packed fixture schedule, a seemingly never ending injury crisis and  yet has emerged stronger than ever. This incarnation of our beloved team is a totally different beast. Arguably our last couple of games have seen us turn in performances as good as, if not better than, anything we've produced all season. We still have key players set to return at some stage during the run in and who'd bet against a certain Mr. Vardy finding his scoring boots again sooner rather than later. Who cares who we still have to play or what fixtures our rivals have, we are now an elite team. We control our own destiny and this time we'll make no mistake in achieving top 4 and possibly, after 50 years, get our revenge on Man City at Wembley! Believe! It's happening. 

[Gerard]

18 minutes ago, Beachyboy said:

I had a mentality shift yesterday even winning 2-1 with 15 mins to go, I was fearing the worst, just like I did when we were 1-0 down to Liverpool, 1-0 down to Man city, 0-0 against Arsenal with 20 mins to go, 1-0 down at HT to Brighton, my point is we are a very good team, an if we perform even 70% of what we can between now an the end of the season we will finish 2nd or 3rd regardless of what other teams do, if we are winning games, we should be looking up in the table not down.

 

Hard not to look down when we have possession of the top four spot and three or four teams are eyeballing our prize.

[Beachyboy]

58 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Hard not to look down when we have possession of the top four spot and three or four teams are eyeballing our prize.

BR has said the only time the table is relevant is at the end of the season an hes right, the mentality in the squad is one game at a time, an I have shifted to that thought process, sure be aware of the overall goal, don't get to over excited if you win a game or down if you lose a game, the squad is not only more talented than last season, it has a bit more resilience, an a variety of ways of winning matches, the Brighton and Burnley results are evidence, we can get a result ugly, an that's what is sometimes needed, at the end of a season.

Edited 22 March 2021 by Beachyboy

[Mr Weller]

We have some impressive statisticians on here and it’s great fun to speculate but all we can say is we’re in a good position and if we keep playing like we have the future is bright.

 

Exciting times

[Beachyboy]

3 minutes ago, Mr Weller said:

We have some impressive statisticians on here and it’s great fun to speculate but all we can say is we’re in a good position and if we keep playing like we have the future is bright.

 

Exciting times

Exactly right

[Steven]

http://www.after38.com/after38Leagues.aspx?league=E0

 

Pos	Team	Pd		Pts
1	Man City	38		89.48
2	Man United	38		74.95
3	Leicester	38		71.05
4	Chelsea	38		66.21
5	Liverpool	38		64.82
6	Tottenham	38		63.60
7	West Ham	38		61.81

[Steve Earle]

3 hours ago, reynard said:

They beat Villa yesterday.

Was that their first win of the season against a side in the top half at the time of the game?

[Foxaholic ME]

6 hours ago, SixtiesFox said:

When Barnes was carried off injured it seemed as if our chances of making the top 4 were slipping away again, but what has happened since, culminating in that demolition of Man U yesterday, has changed everything. Last year, as our form disintegrated we fans focused on statistical targets that seemed to favour us and found solace in the fact that others would and did stumble: Chelsea v West Ham, Southampton's last minute equalizer at Old Trafford. We suffered through the last 10 games in hope rather than expectation. This time it's totally different. Our team has survived a packed fixture schedule, a seemingly never ending injury crisis and  yet has emerged stronger than ever. This incarnation of our beloved team is a totally different beast. Arguably our last couple of games have seen us turn in performances as good as, if not better than, anything we've produced all season. We still have key players set to return at some stage during the run in and who'd bet against a certain Mr. Vardy finding his scoring boots again sooner rather than later. Who cares who we still have to play or what fixtures our rivals have, we are now an elite team. We control our own destiny and this time we'll make no mistake in achieving top 4 and possibly, after 50 years, get our revenge on Man City at Wembley! Believe! It's happening. 

Surely 4th doesnt guarantee champions league   if   Liverpool and Arsenal  win in Europe  and Southampton won the  cup  would we even be in the europa

[Bptiger]

I think our top four depends on how our rep players come back,  if none are injured then we only have to play every 7 or so days which means our players get a rest , with 9 games to go I think we need at least 17 points from 29

[Nicolo Barella]

Zero doubt. Based God Iheanacho will carry us to second place. 

[Mike Oxlong]

22 minutes ago, Bptiger said:

I think our top four depends on how our rep players come back,  if none are injured then we only have to play every 7 or so days which means our players get a rest , with 9 games to go I think we need at least 17 points from 29

17 from 27 👍

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Bptiger said:

I think our top four depends on how our rep players come back,  if none are injured then we only have to play every 7 or so days which means our players get a rest , with 9 games to go I think we need at least 17 points from 29

That requires Liverpool to win all 9, Spurs to win 8 out of 9, Everton to win 9 out of 10 or West Ham to win 8 out 9. 

 

If any of them do that then bloody hell. Thst said I think 17 points is still more than achievable for us.

[fuchsntf]

10 hours ago, Steven said:

http://www.after38.com/after38Leagues.aspx?league=E0

 

Pos	Team	Pd		Pts
1	Man City	38		89.48
2	Man United	38		74.95
3	Leicester	38		71.05
4	Chelsea	38		66.21
5	Liverpool	38		64.82
6	Tottenham	38		63.60
7	West Ham	38		61.81

Real table will be

 

Man.city....87pfe

Leicester...75pts

Manutd......73pts

Chelsea......73pts

L'pool.........71pts.

 

No calculation..or stats..!!

 

[Aus Fox]

6 hours ago, Foxaholic ME said:

Surely 4th doesnt guarantee champions league   if   Liverpool and Arsenal  win in Europe  and Southampton won the  cup  would we even be in the europa

If in the unlikely event Arsenal and Liverpool won the two European trophies, Southampton won the FA Cup and Spurs the league cup - non of which finished in the top 4. 
4th would get a Europa League spot alongside  Southampton with Liverpool and Arsenal joining Man City, 2nd and 3rd in the Champions League.

Spurs would enjoy some nice trips in the Europa Conference.

In this scenario West Ham would be the unlucky team who would miss out on Europe. 

Spurs would be int