2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ricey]

10 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I wonder when the West Brom game will get rearranged for? Could it actually be brought forward between the Man City and West Ham games?

 

Either way, we just have to keep our performance levels and confidence high and we'll keep pushing on.

Presumably it will get pushed back a few days to be the 20th or 21st. I'm pretty sure they aren't allowed to have Premier League matches at the same time as European matches and that is pretty much the only free midweek.

 

It would mean barely any preparation time for WBA and Palace, but I guess they aren't bad fixtures to have any those circumstances, especially with them being at home.

[davieG]

12 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I wonder when the West Brom game will get rearranged for? Could it actually be brought forward between the Man City and West Ham games?

 

Either way, we just have to keep our performance levels and confidence high and we'll keep pushing on.

Chelsea will be struggling to fit their Brighton game in.

[foxfanazer]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I think yesterday was enormous in so many ways - I think BR will want to get it right against MC too, not regard it as a free hit.

Yeah I don't like the term 'free hit' although I've almost certainly used it before. I feel like Brendan's terminology has changed quite a bit this season and fully believes in the players he's got at his disposal

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, foxfanazer said:

Yeah I don't like the term 'free hit' although I've almost certainly used it before. I feel like Brendan's terminology has changed quite a bit this season and fully believes in the players he's got at his disposal

Sure - some have used it here lately, so it was a gentle effort to dispel the notion.

[fox_up_north]

I want us to get at least 5th secured by May, so that we can go into that month knowing we just need to pace ourselves correctly and grind out 4th. Really don't care if the last 2-3 games are absolute dross so long as it gets the points on the board and, importantly, holds off the others.

[foxfanazer]

Just now, HighPeakFox said:

Sure - some have used it here lately, so it was a gentle effort to dispel the notion.

It's not a game where if we lose it we should overreact but no chance we'll write it off. Would be lovely to do the double over the eventual champions 

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, foxfanazer said:

It's not a game where if we lose it we should overreact but no chance we'll write it off. Would be lovely to do the double over the eventual champions 

Agreed - the intent is what I will be looking for.

[Ric Flair]

4 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Presumably it will get pushed back a few days to be the 20th or 21st. I'm pretty sure they aren't allowed to have Premier League matches at the same time as European matches and that is pretty much the only free midweek.

 

It would mean barely any preparation time for WBA and Palace, but I guess they aren't bad fixtures to have any those circumstances, especially with them being at home.

Yeah that makes the most sense actually given Chelsea are in Europe bit this season has seen many teams play domestic games the week of European games as I think that's out the window because of the pandemic.

[Ric Flair]

2 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

It's not a game where if we lose it we should overreact but no chance we'll write it off. Would be lovely to do the double over the eventual champions 

Doing the double over the champions and finishing 2nd like a certain Arsenal in 2015/16.

[foxfanazer]

Just now, Ric Flair said:

Doing the double over the champions and finishing 2nd like a certain Arsenal in 2015/16.

No dressing room selfies though please

[sheffield_fox]

32 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE March 22nd 

 

I've changed some things around. Removed Man City - because they are an irrelevance. 

 

Previously we were looking a historic 4th place finishes. But of course that doesn't give a 'true' reflection of what was required for 4th place, because there could be a big gap. So I looked at '5th place + 1 point' (which doesn't account for Goal Difference being enough to finish 4th, but screw that ). So the new columns marked "****" are for that. 

 

Historical 4th place finishes: Lowest 60, Average 68, Highest 79

Historical 5th place + 1 finishes: Lowest 57, Average 65, Highest 76

 

The gap between our current form/points per game and what we need to finish on 65-68 points is very promising. We can can drop down to 1 point per game. 

 

Chelsea and West Ham need to maintain form. Everton and Spurs need a big uptick. Liverpool, Arsenal and Villa need to do something crazy.

 

Points Required

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Droppable Points

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Fixtures

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Thanks very much for putting the effort into doing this. I really enjoy keeping up with it and you're doing a cracking job. 

[KrefelderFox666]

25 minutes ago, Ricey said:

Presumably it will get pushed back a few days to be the 20th or 21st. I'm pretty sure they aren't allowed to have Premier League matches at the same time as European matches and that is pretty much the only free midweek.

 

It would mean barely any preparation time for WBA and Palace, but I guess they aren't bad fixtures to have any those circumstances, especially with them being at home.

I don't think that is nailed on. Plenty of examples where PL and European games have gone on in the same week. Especially with already tight calendars. Man CIty played Southampton the other week while CL was going on. However, they will likely want games played before the evening European games (e.g. 17:30 KO).

 

I think they will try to play rescheduled matches as early as possible because the FA Cup Final is also on a matchday.

 

17th April Weekend - PL and FA Cup

21st April Midweek - Currently a gap

24th April Weekend - PL and League Cup Final

28th April Midweek - European Games

1st May Weekend - PL

5th May Midweek - European Games

8th May Weekend - PL

12th May Midweek - PL (these might be moved to week after)

15th May Weekend - PL and FA Cup Final

19th May Midweek - PL (maybe)

23rd May Weekend - PL (End of season)

 

Wherever the West Brom game goes, it will mean it is sandwiched in between PL games.

 

[Deeg67]

Honestly, Spurs worry me more than anyone else.  Yes their play is dreary but they have the most talent of any of the chasers (bar Liverpool, who may be too far back) and a manager that's won at the very top level.  I could easily see them rattling off six or seven wins in their last nine matches.

[KrefelderFox666]

Surely 4 more wins (or 12 points - 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses) would give us Top 4. Unless everyone below has some fantastic runs of form.

 

And 12 points from a possible 27 with the fixtures we have is more than possible.

[Simmo86]

Still think we get to 71/72 points, if anybody finishes above us with that total then fair play.

 

 

[Jobyfox]

The magic number is now: 77 points

 

That’s the number required if every one of our rivals got maximum points from now until the end of the season. We know this can’t happen as some of them play each other.

 

The calculated magic number is: 66 points 

 

That’s the number required if the ‘rate of drop’ to achieve 4th continues on the same trajectory as it has since the start of the season

If we maintain the same ppg average we have since the start of the season then we will achieve: 73 points 

 

This is the maths, but of course this all breaks down the closer we get to the end of the season. Short runs of form are much more possible for any team and not everyone has the same difficulty of run-in. 
 

^^^^ irrespective of the maths I’ve thought since this thread started that 68 points would probably be enough. That’s currently 4 wins or 3 wins and 3 draws in nine games. The concern would be to be wary of a purple patch/ winning run for the teams below us. West Ham, Chelsea and Spurs all look capable but, fortunately, Liverpool have shown little sign of it yet. 

[skolfoxes]

I think we as fans are understandably cautious after what happened last year. However in reality it took a team going on a pretty ridiculous run coupled with us completely Sh1tt1ng the bed for us to miss out on the top 4, and even then it was in our hands right up to the last game of the season.

 

You'd have to think the chances of another team (Liverpool or Spurs) going on a similar run to that of Man United last year is fairly remote.

 

As others have said, another 12 points should see us over the line. With three homes games against West Brom, Palace and Newcastle you'd like to think we should be able to pick up another win and a draw or two in our remaining five games to get the job done, especially with how good our record against the so called big sides has been this season.

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

I’ve thought since this thread started that 68 points would probably be enough. 

I said as much in the very first post 

[Jobyfox]

Just now, Les-TA-Jon said:

I said as much in the very first post 

Yeah I remember. 
 

We appear to have looked at this mathematically, but also with a hunch based on logic.

 

It’s strangely reassuring when somebody comes up with the same answer as really all I’m doing every week is trying to keep myself calm. You should have seen the size of the spreadsheet in 2015/16!!! 

[OrielCaziado]

I’m very confident now. Looking at the figures and worrying about how many points we may or may not need is not the reason I’m confident.  My confidence is because of what my eyes are telling me. We look the best side in the league bar maybe Man City. I watched every game this weekend. None of the chasers look anywhere near has composed or simply as threatening as we do. Last year was the opposite. The table made me feel confident but what I was watching didn’t install the same confidence. 

[coolhandfox]

I'd like us to finish strongly, as we saw with the finish in 2014/15 momentum in football can be massive, 2nd should be are target not hang onto 4th

 

Will get shot down for this, but with a fit and healthy squad, we are 2 excellent signing away from competing for the league next season. 

 

Dream Big

Edited 22 March 2021 by coolhandfox

[Kevin Russell]

1 hour ago, coolhandfox said:

I'd like us to finish strongly, as we saw with the finish in 2014/15 momentum in football can be massive, 2nd should be are target not hang onto 4th

 

Will get shot down for this, but with a fit and healthy squad, we are 2 excellent signing away from competing for the league next season. 

 

Dream Big

We have an exceptional side, but I think we’ll have a relatively quiet summer in terms of transfers. Depends how others do in the window, but I expect Chelsea and Man City to be battling it out at the top next season and I predict we’ll be in the mix for the European places. That is an incredible achievement given our playing budget relative to the other sides in the top half.
 

We have to add strength to our attacking options, which have looked pretty stretched of late - top quality attacking players are the toughest to acquire, so it is a big ask for the recruitment team with restricted funds and expensive gaps in the squad.

[coolhandfox]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Russell said:

We have an exceptional side, but I think we’ll have a relatively quiet summer in terms of transfers. Depends how others do in the window, but I expect Chelsea and Man City to be battling it out at the top next season and I predict we’ll be in the mix for the European places. That is an incredible achievement given our playing budget relative to the other sides in the top half.
 

We have to add strength to our attacking options, which have looked pretty stretched of late - top quality attacking players are the toughest to acquire, so it is a big ask for the recruitment team with restricted funds and expensive gaps in the squad.

I agree but this is going to be a funny summer with a number of opportunities to add talent at a decent price especially Ligue 1 financial crisis.

 

I wasn't predicting we would make two excellent signings, more that if we did we would be in with a shout.

[Les-TA-Jon]

We need another right winger, another attacking/creative midfielder and a new striker

[Kevin Russell]

1 minute ago, coolhandfox said:

I agree but this is going to be a funny summer with a number of opportunities to add talent at a decent price especially Ligue 1 financial crisis.

 

I wasn't predicting we would make two excellent signings, more that if we did we would be in with a shout.

Well - with two excellent signings I think we’d have a phenomenal squad. I don’t think we could get to the circa 90 points needed to win the league but we might give it a go!!