Leicester 'could face points deduction next season'

[coolhandfox]

8 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

Psr isn’t 105m for us with one year in the champ at 50% so it will be 87.5m for the next few seasons until it changes 

.When I referenced 105m, it was for the 2023 period, which includes 21,22 and 23 of all PL seasons.

 

83m will be for the 24 and 25 reporting periods as they contain 24, which is a Championship season.

 

Update my previous post to make it clearer.

 

 

Edited 8 May by coolhandfox

[coolhandfox]

24 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

But that last season in the prem also factored in +70m in player trading, where do we bring in 110m in sales even if we spent 40m?

We don't.

 

Yes we made 75m profit on players sales in our last PL season.

 

But we enter the next one with a 47m reduction in our amortisation cut from an all-time high of 77m to 30m, a saving per annum of 47m.

 

We also hope to slash the wage bill from 200m to around 130-150m, saving around 50m-70m per annum.

 

 

 

 

Edited 8 May by coolhandfox

[HankMarvin]

Just now, coolhandfox said:

We don't.

 

Yes we sold 75m worth of players in our last PL season.

 

But we enter the next one with a 47m reduction in our amortisation cut from an all-time high of 77m to 30m, a saving per annum of 47m.

 

We also hope to slash the wage bill from 200m to around 130-150m, saving around 50m-70m per annum.

 

 

 

 

110m worth of players 

[coolhandfox]

4 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

110m worth of players 

Sorry, I was talking about the profit from the sales, which was 75m.

 

Profit is the important part as that has a postive impact on the accounts. 

 

Multitasking i.e. working and posting causing issues 

Edited 8 May by coolhandfox

[HankMarvin]

Cost of sales went up that season  by 30m which the club attributes to sacking Rodger’s and his staff. 
So 23/24 won’t be as bad in that respect, but you also have to factor in the costs of the new staff 

[Corky]

3 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Looking at the numbers, we are looking at a breach of PSR for the 2023 report period of around 35m, as we roughly have the following numbers after healthy deductions and other adjustments: 2021 - 19m, 2022 - 72m,  2023 - 49m,  which come to -140m.

 

-140m is 35m over the target of -105m. (PSR Target for 21,22,23)

 

To hit PSR for the reporting period 2024 (22/23/24), we will have to book a profit of around 10-15m before health deductions.

 

Doing the math with available data and guesses, if we did manage to cut our wage bill by 50% for this season, we are currently somewhere in the -10m to -15m range, so we would have to bring in around 30m profit on player sales in June. (PSR Target -83m for 22,23,24)

 

If we did that, we would be in a much better position for the 2025 (23/24/25) PSR reporting period, as the worst year, 22, would be dropped from the calculation.

 

That would give us roughly 71 m in wiggle room for 2025. If we went back to revenue levels from 2023, we could live with wages of 150m and amortisation of around 50m per season. 

 

However, that would put us at around 85% of revenue spent on wages and transfers, which, if the new rules are adopted in 2026, would need to be under 75%. 

In simple terms, if we managed to sell Dewsbury-Hall for £30 million before July then we are likely to be ok? 

 

Would be really useful if this is the only points deduction coming along the way. There's a big chance we'll go back down and it would be good to start with a clean slate in the EFL.

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, HankMarvin said:

Cost of sales went up that season  by 30m which the club attributes to sacking Rodger’s and his staff. 
So 23/24 won’t be as bad in that respect, but you also have to factor in the costs of the new staff 

If it did cost us £30m to get rid of Rodgers and his staff this is utterly staggering and meant we signed off on a £50m liability at any given time when we extended his contract in November 2019. 

 

Having to pay that at a pro rata'd rate in full in the year in question meant our ability to comply with PSR was under threat at any point the club started to decline. Mind boggling negligence if true.

[Matt]

10 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

If we can get our wage bill down to somewhere nearer £100m in the PL, then we ought to be able to spend a healthy amount in the right manner.

I don't claim to know the ins and out, I don't quite understand FFP and/or PSR but I think end game was always getting to this summer before we could start righting some wrongs, with many high earner leaving this summer, as none were leaving before their contracts were up, the clubs hands were tied - that's not sticking up for the club, they put themselves in that position giving these ridiculous  contracts out.

 

It's about getting the right players, players who want to be here, lowering the wage bill, making a stand and using the freed up money wisely.

 

Will we have learnt from mistakes? I very much doubt it but it remains to be seen either way.

[coolhandfox]

1 hour ago, Corky said:

In simple terms, if we managed to sell Dewsbury-Hall for £30 million before July then we are likely to be ok? 

 

Would be really useful if this is the only points deduction coming along the way. There's a big chance we'll go back down and it would be good to start with a clean slate in the EFL.

Yes.

 

But lots of caveats as it guess work determining our revenue, wage bill, other expenses.

 

Or example I'm working a 50% reduction on the wage bill, it could 10% ethier side of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vlad the Fox]

11 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

If it did cost us £30m to get rid of Rodgers and his staff this is utterly staggering and meant we signed off on a £50m liability at any given time when we extended his contract in November 2019. 

 

Having to pay that at a pro rata'd rate in full in the year in question meant our ability to comply with PSR was under threat at any point the club started to decline. Mind boggling negligence if true.

It’s insane, I was told the £50m to get rid by someone who knows a few people at Seagrave but couldn’t get my head round the figure and that anyone would be stupid enough to agree such a deal so decided it was bullshit. When I saw the £30m figure I thought ****, it must have been true. Absolute incompetence. 

[Bluetintedspecs]

20 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

But the retort will be, if we were forecasting tens of millions in sales of such players that with everything else would then be how we'd attempt to comply, we were negligent to rely on that given we didn't sell a single such player.

Your initial point was about how can we defend £100 million worth of players running contracts down with more to come this Summer though Ric! 

We know, due to the crazy wages, we haven't helped ourselves but the power lies with the Players and their contracts, clubs are hamstrung and helpless.

I'm sure we can say every effort was made to move on X Y & Z players but , as is well documented,  refusal was there from players and clubs weren't prepared to better or even match their wages! 

Sadly this will become more prevalent in Football, especially with FPS ,as Players secure more money and clubs save on massive transfer fees. 

[Bert]

12 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

If it did cost us £30m to get rid of Rodgers and his staff this is utterly staggering and meant we signed off on a £50m liability at any given time when we extended his contract in November 2019. 

 

Having to pay that at a pro rata'd rate in full in the year in question meant our ability to comply with PSR was under threat at any point the club started to decline. Mind boggling negligence if true.

And this was the sole reason why we persisted with him for so long, we knew paying him off would have a major impact on the finances. 
 

Only getting rid when it was too late - I think had we sacked him even 4 games prior we would’ve stayed up. Yep maybe we would’ve been hit with a sanction but at least we’d have still been in the prem and not lost out on extra income we would’ve received this season. Then there’s the potential of keeping Barnes too. 

[Ric Flair]

11 minutes ago, Bluetintedspecs said:

Your initial point was about how can we defend £100 million worth of players running contracts down with more to come this Summer though Ric! 

We know, due to the crazy wages, we haven't helped ourselves but the power lies with the Players and their contracts, clubs are hamstrung and helpless.

I'm sure we can say every effort was made to move on X Y & Z players but , as is well documented,  refusal was there from players and clubs weren't prepared to better or even match their wages! 

Sadly this will become more prevalent in Football, especially with FPS ,as Players secure more money and clubs save on massive transfer fees. 

I know but what I mean is, we'll be asked to explain what our strategy was for complying in recent years. Chewing over the scenarios and what Rodgers said on occasions would point towards selling players like Tielemans and Soyuncu who weren't interested in signing new contracts.

 

The difficulty was evident. The players were in control and could refuse to leave if they wanted to. The irony is Soyuncu wasn't on a large salary, he never signed an extension and Tielemans didn't either. Whether we demanded too much for them in the summers of 2021 and 2022 remains to be seen but it would you surprise me.

 

Anyway, the defence that we planned to sell such players and couldn't will be counteracted with the plan was flawed as we didn't manage to sell a single one of them. Zero. We lost over £100m of players. 

 

Couple this with the Rodgers liability hanging over our heads and there's plenty of damning findings that show our strategy for compliance was bordering on impossible. We'd backed ourselves in to a corner and we have paid the price.

[sm1]

Alot of last season makes sense now. Rodgers had us over a barrel, he knew it and so did we. That's why he was publically criticising the club, daring us to sack him and we couldn't until it was too late. I supposed that's what you get for putting a spineless lackey like Rudkin in charge. If signing off on 200M wages wasn't bad enough, he agreed a 30M severance pay with Rodgers.

[ClaphamFox]

Just now, sm1 said:

Alot of last season makes sense now. Rodgers had us over a barrel, he knew it and so did we. That's why he was publically criticising the club, daring us to sack him and we couldn't until it was too late. I supposed that's what you get for putting a spineless lackey like Rudkin in charge. If signing off on 200M wages wasn't bad enough, he agreed a 30M severance pay with Rodgers.

It would not have just been Rudkin that signed off on those things - Top and the board will have given the green light too. I'm no fan of Rudkin and like many others I'd prefer it if we had a different Director of Football, but this tendency to regard him as an omnipotent cartoon villain who is responsible for every bad decision the club makes is a bit silly. 

[Babylon]

20 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

The irony here being, as we've proven now multiple times, the Premier League doesn't even know their own rules and are willing to break them repeatedly.

 

So far, the panels have proven themselves different, thankfully. They are the ones making the final decision and not the premier league. It's very black and white with them.

[ClaphamFox]

3 minutes ago, Babylon said:

 

So far, the panels have proven themselves different, thankfully. They are the ones making the final decision and not the premier league. It's very black and white with them.

Exactly. This is precisely why the frequently-heard claim by some folk that we're in deep trouble because 'The Premier League are going to throw the book at us' is a tad melodramatic. 

[Nolucklcfc]

2 hours ago, sm1 said:

Alot of last season makes sense now. Rodgers had us over a barrel, he knew it and so did we. That's why he was publically criticising the club, daring us to sack him and we couldn't until it was too late. I supposed that's what you get for putting a spineless lackey like Rudkin in charge. If signing off on 200M wages wasn't bad enough, he agreed a 30M severance pay with Rodgers.

Completely our own incompetence once again … 

[shen]

On 08/05/2024 at 11:33, Ric Flair said:

Our amortised transfers we'll owe for 24/25 without any outgoings or incomings (except for Fatawu) is around £28-30m. It was more nearer £40m this season but Praet and Vestergaard drop off at around £4-5m each.

 

As I've said, if we can get our wages down to somewhere near £100-110m and revenue between £175-200m. Then spending £70-80m this summer (although perhaps we should keep it more to £50-60m) would add around £15m to the £30m amortised transfers fees to about £45m. 

 

Whether that would get us to comply with a 3 year cycle loss of £83m is tricky to completely gauge, will depend how much we breach 22/23 and then possibly 23/24 by. But basically we need to have cut our wages by 40-45% IMO.

 

We will have made a very good start on that in the last two summers.

 

 

Are there some qualified guesses as to how much our wage bill will go down with all the high profile departures this summer?

I do also wonder how much (if at all) the wages went down after relegation and how much it goes up after promotion.

[Ric Flair]

13 minutes ago, shen said:

Are there some qualified guesses as to how much our wage bill will go down with all the high profile departures this summer?

I do also wonder how much (if at all) the wages went down after relegation and how much it goes up after promotion.

I'm doing this on the hoof but let's make an attempt.

 

Hermansen - £45k a week / £2.3m 

Stolarczyk - £10k a week / £500k

Ward - £50k a week / £2.6m

Iversen - £25k a week / £1.3m

Ricardo - £110k a week / £5.7m

Justin - £100k a week / £5.2m

Souttar - £50k a week / £2.6m

Thomas - £40k a week / £2.1m

Kristiansen - £55k a week / £2.8m

Faes - £60k a week / £3.2m

Nelson - £20k a week / £1.1m

Coady - £65k a week / £3.5m

Winks - £65k a week / £3.5m

Choudhury - £50k a week / £2.6m

Soumare - £90k a week / £4.7m

KDH - £75k a week / £4m

Mavididi - £50k a week / £2.5m

Wanya - £10k a week / £500k

McAteer - £10k a week / £500k

Fatawu - £50k a week / £2.5m

Daka - £90k a week / £4.7m

Cannon - £35k a week / £1.8m

 

Total: £60.2m

 

That's without Vestergaard, Ndidi, Vardy and the likes of Praet, Albrighton and Iheanacho.

 

Without any further outgoings we'd be looking to add 5-6 new players to this squad if not more which would be £15-20m in wages ?

 

I've been very economical with the wages though, you could probably add 20-25% more on but it would suggest we are very much reduced from the highs of £150-180m (including all staff)

 

[Bryn]

2 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I'm doing this on the hoof but let's make an attempt.

 

Hermansen - £45k a week / £2.3m 

Stolarczyk - £10k a week / £500k

Ward - £50k a week / £2.6m

Iversen - £25k a week / £1.3m

Ricardo - £110k a week / £5.7m

Justin - £100k a week / £5.2m

Souttar - £50k a week / £2.6m

Thomas - £40k a week / £2.1m

Kristiansen - £55k a week / £2.8m

Faes - £60k a week / £3.2m

Nelson - £20k a week / £1.1m

Coady - £65k a week / £3.5m

Winks - £65k a week / £3.5m

Choudhury - £50k a week / £2.6m

Soumare - £90k a week / £4.7m

KDH - £75k a week / £4m

Mavididi - £50k a week / £2.5m

Wanya - £10k a week / £500k

McAteer - £10k a week / £500k

Fatawu - £50k a week / £2.5m

Daka - £90k a week / £4.7m

Cannon - £35k a week / £1.8m

 

Total: £60.2m

 

That's without Vestergaard, Ndidi, Vardy and the likes of Praet, Albrighton and Iheanacho.

 

Without any further outgoings we'd be looking to add 5-6 new players to this squad if not more which would be £15-20m in wages ?

 

I've been very economical with the wages though, you could probably add 20-25% more on but it would suggest we are very much reduced from the highs of £150-180m (including all staff)

 

 

There’ll be promotion wage rises on the new signings for sure. Probably 10-15%.

[Ric Flair]

5 minutes ago, Bryn said:

 

There’ll be promotion wage rises on the new signings for sure. Probably 10-15%.

Yeah and I've already tried to factor that in but maybe it still needs further uplifting. E.G it's hard to see how we could have justified giving Coady and Winks £65-70k in the Championship (£50k maybe) and Mavididi £35-40k but you never know with us 😂

[Col city fan]

As much as we can rejoice about this season ending in the way it did, there’s little doubt next season will be tough.

Points deduction, contracts, will KDH stay, Enzo apparently being sniffed after.

And a squad that starts in the Premiership as, at best, average currently.

Enjoy the Euros kids and let’s see who we sign!

[shen]

2 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

I'm doing this on the hoof but let's make an attempt.

 

Hermansen - £45k a week / £2.3m 

Stolarczyk - £10k a week / £500k

Ward - £50k a week / £2.6m

Iversen - £25k a week / £1.3m

Ricardo - £110k a week / £5.7m

Justin - £100k a week / £5.2m

Souttar - £50k a week / £2.6m

Thomas - £40k a week / £2.1m

Kristiansen - £55k a week / £2.8m

Faes - £60k a week / £3.2m

Nelson - £20k a week / £1.1m

Coady - £65k a week / £3.5m

Winks - £65k a week / £3.5m

Choudhury - £50k a week / £2.6m

Soumare - £90k a week / £4.7m

KDH - £75k a week / £4m

Mavididi - £50k a week / £2.5m

Wanya - £10k a week / £500k

McAteer - £10k a week / £500k

Fatawu - £50k a week / £2.5m

Daka - £90k a week / £4.7m

Cannon - £35k a week / £1.8m

 

Total: £60.2m

 

That's without Vestergaard, Ndidi, Vardy and the likes of Praet, Albrighton and Iheanacho.

 

Without any further outgoings we'd be looking to add 5-6 new players to this squad if not more which would be £15-20m in wages ?

 

I've been very economical with the wages though, you could probably add 20-25% more on but it would suggest we are very much reduced from the highs of £150-180m (including all staff)

 

To think Ward, Souttar, Kristiansen, Iversen, Soumare, Thomas - and at a push Coady, Daka and Cannon - who are deadwood are costing us around £4-500k/week or £20-26m per year is mindboggling. We wouldn't really miss any of those IMO.

 

[StanSP]

Those Daka and Soumare wages

 

Even Justin on £100k/w is ridiculous (from the club if true, not you @Ric Flair!)

 

Ward should be paying the club for the privilege of being associated with a professional football club. A promoted to the PL one at that...