Cooper - OUT

[The whole world smiles]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

Took a good two years for everyone to get on board with that, sadly. Worked out well eking that one out.

Almost Two years to the day that we sacked Rodgers we had just beaten Southampton to reach the fa cup final and sat 4th in the league.

 

So you will forgive us for not foaming at the mouth! Most managers get sacked sooner or later in modern football so if you decide a manager is useless and needs sacking you will be proved right eventually.

[SecretPro]

2 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

Almost Two years to the day that we sacked Rodgers we had just beaten Southampton to reach the fa cup final and sat 4th in the league.

 

So you will forgive us for not foaming at the mouth! Most managers get sacked sooner or later in modern football so if you decide a manager is useless and needs sacking you will be proved right eventually.

I remember our form around the actual FA cup final being hideous and that's when people started really questioning Rodgers as people were moaning about the FA Cup final papering over cracks and giving him credit in the bank. It went downhill from there, so yeah, it took quite a lot of people 18+ months to give a sh*t about their club.

Edited 7 October 2024 by SecretPro

[Finnegan]

2 minutes ago, Nick said:

Or Puel

 

Every manager we've ever had has sparked furious debate on here. Often the most passionate debate comes when there's really quite an overwhelming majority arguing with one or two stubborn hold outs who, I'm pretty sure, just do it to be different. 

 

I think the forum was fairly united in being unimpressed with Puel much as it is with Cooper and much as it was with Rodgers in his last year. 

 

But Pearson was genuinely divisive. As in, there was a pretty significant number of people arguing for either side with a far more even split and even today people can't all fully agree on his legacy. 

 

[RonnieTodger]

I am absolutely dreading that Forest game. Think it will come to a head there. 

[tickler28]

2 hours ago, Muzzy_no7 said:

Why not? 

I give up.....put it this way Wolves and Southampton and Palace have less points between them than we do.....are any of their managers getting sacked?

[UniFox21]

We're over performing by 4 positions, isn't particularly good reading for us 

 

 

[RoboFox]

12 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

I remember our form around the actual FA cup final being hideous and that's when people started really questioning Rodgers as people were moaning about the FA Cup final papering over cracks and giving him credit in the bank. It went downhill from there, so yeah, it took quite a lot of people 18+ months to give a sh*t about their club.

I remember the 4-1 loss to Forest being the turning point for a lot of people on here. 

 

Absolutely mad that he remained in position for another 14 increasingly horrendous months.

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, The Doctor said:

what I'd say there is you have to be a truly generational talent to continue at this rate. Mads post shot xG difference is +4.3 (i.e. of the shots he's faced on target, he's saved 4.3 additional goals). that's over 7 games. over a season that'd become saving 23 additional goals. fbref currently seems to be down but I don't think I've ever seen a keeper top +10 over a full season. 

 

that said, an effective way of defending is in attacking. if you park 10 in your own box, you'll face waves and waves of chances. if you pose a threat on the counter, even just bringing it away, you lower that - the opposition can't score if you've got the ball in their defensive third after all. the lack of bravery in attacking is why we concede so many chances.

Agreed and we've seen this in the two games we've taken the lead in. In both games we were largely impressive until we dropped off and invited the pressure on to us.

 

Bournemouth were far better 1st half than Palace but we were good for the lead and I'd say ought to have had a penalty as well as Vardy's fluffed chance. Bournemouth had a few chances but it was 2nd half where it'll be a mystery to the neutral how they didn't at least equalise let alone get a winner.

 

 

[StriderHiryu]

2 hours ago, The Doctor said:

what I'd say there is you have to be a truly generational talent to continue at this rate. Mads post shot xG difference is +4.3 (i.e. of the shots he's faced on target, he's saved 4.3 additional goals). that's over 7 games. over a season that'd become saving 23 additional goals. fbref currently seems to be down but I don't think I've ever seen a keeper top +10 over a full season. 

 

that said, an effective way of defending is in attacking. if you park 10 in your own box, you'll face waves and waves of chances. if you pose a threat on the counter, even just bringing it away, you lower that - the opposition can't score if you've got the ball in their defensive third after all. the lack of bravery in attacking is why we concede so many chances.

 

ELITE!

 

 

Edited 7 October 2024 by StriderHiryu

[Finnegan]

FWIW I wouldn't be surprised if we're calling Mads Hermansen a generational talent in five to ten years time. 

 

Haven't felt as positively about a player we've signed since Kante. 

 

If we'd had him the last time we were in the Premier League, we'd probably have been comfortably lower mid table. 

 

Edited 7 October 2024 by Finnegan

[Tommy G]

13 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

We're over performing by 4 positions, isn't particularly good reading for us 

 

 

Luckily for us the league is decided by 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, not Opta's expected points model. 

[Quorndon_Fox]

20 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

I am absolutely dreading that Forest game. Think it will come to a head there. 

I'm expecting us to loose 8-0 and Cooper takes shirt off at the final whistle exposing a full chest tattoo of the Forest badge muttering something about passing out three times before exposing his cock and balls to Rudkin.

[Chrysalis]

2 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Luckily for us the league is decided by 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, not Opta's expected points model. 

People digging up for anything they can find to support their argument at this point, it will get more and more desperate as we keep ahead of the bottom 3.

[Jobyfox]

Cooper was a strange appointment from the outset and revealed a confused strategy from the decision makers. We’ve now “made our bed” with him and it’s difficult to see us sacking him anytime soon. I’m also not sure what another manager would do with this squad. It is one of the worst in the league and I expect us to be fighting in our mini league whoever is in charge. 

 

Would Maresca have performed better in the transfer market on a limited budget? (Eduoard and BDR look poor signings and Ayew should really be no more than a squad player). Would Maresca have picked up more points as, irrespective of manager, we expected a relegation battle? 
 

Given the trajectory we’re now on I’m expecting this season to be a difficult slog right to the end whoever is in charge. It’s odd that even if Steve Cooper kept us in the league we’d ultimately still probably need a more progressive manager to take us forward. As stated it’s just a bizarre appointment that I’m still struggling to understand 

[ClaphamFox]

16 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

Luckily for us the league is decided by 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, not Opta's expected points model. 

This article by Opta explains in some depth how their expected points model performed last year. It shows that seven teams finished in the positions predicted by the model and thirteen teams (65%) finished either higher or lower than predicted. So it's not exactly the hyper-efficient mean-reverting monster that some people seem to believe it is.

 

https://theanalyst.com/2024/05/opta-supercomputer-premier-league-2023-24-predictions#:~:text=The Opta supercomputer has kept us

[trooky]

39 minutes ago, tickler28 said:

I give up.....put it this way Wolves and Southampton and Palace have less points between them than we do.....are any of their managers getting sacked?

We don't know what's being said on their forums, anyway Cooper isn't getting sacked either.

[sm1]

42 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

I am absolutely dreading that Forest game. Think it will come to a head there. 

Judging by yesterday's game, Forest are far better than us. If Gibbs White is fit, I'd expect them to beat us easily with a Chris Wood goal to top it off. That might be the death knell for Coops.

[RonnieTodger]

7 minutes ago, sm1 said:

Judging by yesterday's game, Forest are far better than us. If Gibbs White is fit, I'd expect them to beat us easily with a Chris Wood goal to top it off. That might be the death knell for Coops.

Yeah they’re a genuinely decent side now, sadly. 
 

2022/23 was such a sliding doors season. 

[Tommy G]

16 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

This article by Opta explains in some depth how their expected points model performed last year. It shows that seven teams finished in the positions predicted by the model and thirteen teams (65%) finished either higher or lower than predicted. So it's not exactly the hyper-efficient mean-reverting monster that some people seem to believe it is.

 

https://theanalyst.com/2024/05/opta-supercomputer-premier-league-2023-24-predictions#:~:text=The Opta supercomputer has kept us

I think aswell, if the stats were reversed, and we hadn't got as many expected points as we have i.e playing better but not converting it into points, it wouldn't be dragged up as a reason to keep Cooper, but as it's the other way round it's another stick to beat him with. 

 

I'm on the fence a bit with him, makes some odd subsitutes and XI's, backs to the wall protecting leads is something I'm not a fan of. But we have far exceeded what I thought the start would be, points tally wise. I'd be more concerned as an Ipswich, Saints or Wolves fan. 

Edited 7 October 2024 by Tommy G

[CosbehFox]

35 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

People digging up for anything they can find to support their argument at this point, it will get more and more desperate as we keep ahead of the bottom 3.

I'd hardly call it 'digging up for anything' - it's effectively what professional clubs use to rate and assess their own performance. 

 

It's a good evidence indicator. We will see how it plays out. 

[ClaphamFox]

1 minute ago, Tommy G said:

I think aswell, if the stats were reversed, and we hadn't got as many expected points as we have i.e playing better but not converting it into points, it wouldn't be dragged up as a reason to keep Cooper, but as it's the other way round it's another stick to beat him with. 

 

I'm on the fence a bit with him, makes some odd subsitutes and XI's, backs to the wall protecting leads is something I'm not a fan of. But we have far exceeded what I thought the start would be, points tally wise. I'd be more concerned as an Ipswich, Saints or Wolves fan. 

In 2022/23 our expected points total was far higher than the points we actually got, but I can't remember many people saying that Rodgers was unlucky and we should have stuck by him for longer. 

 

1 minute ago, CosbehFox said:

I'd hardly call it 'digging up for anything' - it's effectively what professional clubs use to rate and assess their own performance. 

 

It's a good evidence indicator. We will see how it plays out. 

If it's that good, why does it predict teams' final positions incorrectly more often than not? 

[pmcla26]

3 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

I think aswell, if the stats were reversed, and we hadn't got as many expected points as we have i.e playing better but not converting it into points, it wouldn't be dragged up as a reason to keep Cooper, but as it's the other way round it's another stick to beat him with. 

I disagree, if we had been playing more progressive, attacking football in a similar style to last season and hadn't quite got the points yet then I think that I'd gain more encouragement than from what I've seen so far and be more willing to give him time. 

 

The underlying data and consistently not picking our best players/making odd substitutions makes it hard to feel like a PPG (like we have currently) is sustainable. 

 

I'm happy for Cooper to get his first win at the weekend though. I have nothing against him personally and think he seems like a decent guy, but he seems to have a bit of an inferior mentality and I can't get on board with his team selections/style of play. 

[honeybradger]

1 hour ago, tickler28 said:

I give up.....put it this way Wolves and Southampton and Palace have less points between them than we do.....are any of their managers getting sacked?

Not sure what point you're trying to make here? Yes, all of those teams' managers will be sacked over the coming weeks, unless the Southampton ownership has already accepted they are going down and keep Martin for the championship.

[CosbehFox]

3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

In 2022/23 our expected points total was far higher than the points we actually got, but I can't remember many people saying that Rodgers was unlucky and we should have stuck by him for longer. 

 

If it's that good, why does it predict teams' final positions incorrectly more often than not? 

The article you shared doesn't mention expected points total.

 

It's also a prediction from the beginning of the season rather than using statistical ongoing data. Professional clubs use the live data of xG etc to assess their performance 'as live'. 

 

The article discuss Opta's supercomputer which is based off an objective opinion 'the Opta Power ratings'; every team is given a score at the start of the season and then they add that alongside a likelihood of result predictions - that gives me a percentage for each position. 

[CosbehFox]

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2023

 

Expected points table from 23-24. 

 

Notably got all three relegated clubs correct - and the next three clubs; Manchester United, West Ham and Wolves. All three of those have had poor starts to the season. That's a perfect example of how it can predict performance and sense a trend for failure.