Guest kristianity77 Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 No way we need 6 more wins from here. Even 4 wins and 2 draws would mean Derby would need 9 wins from the last 13 games. Its just not gonna happen
weller54 Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Derby are our ONLY threat now.... And they'd have to have one hell of a run to overhaul us now.. Ain't gonna happen!!!
Guest Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Six more wins and we are up. That's what I worked out to be sure of promotion but I reckon we'll need less than that. 6 wins is still an ask though.
Guest bennytwohats Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 That's what I worked out to be sure of promotion but I reckon we'll need less than that. 6 wins is still an ask though. As it stands we still need 9 wins before it is mathematically certain. We all know less than that would be required but at that point it's all speculation. Mathematical certainty is the only point it really matters! Absolutely flying on course at the moment though so exciting times!
Stan Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 To put into perspective, Derby need to win at least 5 more games than us. So even we only win five more games, they'll need 10 wins out of 13. Obviously discounting draws!
Super_horns Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Don't you have Burnley and QPR soon? I reckon you'll be celebrating by the 8th April..
Finnaldo Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 Don't you have Burnley and QPR soon? I reckon you'll be celebrating by the 8th April.. Burnley is. QPR isn't until later in the season. We've got Barnsley, Blackpool, Blackburn and Yeovil before Burnley so we'll be looking to pick up some points there and hopefully that'll mean that game's more about the title rather promotion.
Pegosteve Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 OK here goes: Seasons Average to date we need 86 for promotion and 93 for title Last 6 games average - 90 for promotion 97 for title Last 12 game average - 85 for promotion 92 for title Last 13 game average (games to go for most) 86 for promotion 93 for title Our averages for all the above put us between 103 and 109 points. Im thinking 87 will probably be enough now so 5 wins is no problem. Mark Jarvis already paying out on promotion. I'm coming over from Spain for only my second visit to the KP for the Blackpool game I'm really hoping that game will put us on the 80 mark. Would be fantastic if we achieve over the 100 point mark. For anybody below Burnley now to catch us they need to put together a record breaking performance. Can see wigan going well but even if they win all their games they can only get to 94.
Bluetintedspecs Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 More to the point that there have been about 4/5 different threads about it.. I am entitled to an opinion, and completely free to post it. I cannot see the point in getting over excited in february.. the way some of the posters on here go on, it's worth remortgaging and heading down to ladbrokes... Although I do see it a case of us winning the league convincingly. I can't wait to see if somebody GUESSED the points total correctly, Then come straight on here with all the "I told you so" threads I agree it's like them stupid and pointless threads about Nugent isn't it? If anyone isn't excited or doing various calculations and permutations then I'd be more worried, you miserable git!
blue90boy Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 After many complicated calculations in Excel based on who plays who in the top 6, top of the table and bottom of the table with a weighting for home and away form (won't paste in here, honest) but the outcome is this: LCFC 105pts Burnley 91pts Derby 86pts As we only need one point more than the third place team that leaves us just four wins and a draw away from promotion.
weller54 Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 My guess... Us 97, Burnley 90, Derby 84,..... The rest.. Who cares!!!
Mickey O'Neil Posted 1 March 2014 Posted 1 March 2014 The Derby fans are getting ̶S̶l̶i̶g̶h̶t̶l̶y̶ extremely worried about Wigan. With good cause too as well. The play offs are going to be rough this year.
fuchsntf Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Our maximum possible is still 113 pts, so until we drop points...thats what I believe we will get. No sense giving points away especially when its still at the debating and theory stage. If you dream , dream big....
Aus Fox Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 The only thing with Derbys run home is Forest is the only team in the top 6 they have left to play. And I have heard they have one or two injuries... Derby winning 10 of the last thirteen is not out of the question
Istilllovefilbert Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 The only thing with Derbys run home is Forest is the only team in the top 6 they have left to play. And I have heard they have one or two injuries... Derby winning 10 of the last thirteen is not out of the question Just cannot see that happening. Derby are not that good.
reynard Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Just cannot see that happening. Derby are not that good. Why not they won 7 in a row earlier in the season. They have a fairly straightforward run in against teams they will fancy beating. It is all about us. We just need to keep on winning, especially the next three games as it gets a lot tougher on paper after that. I'm still sticking to 93 points for automatics and more for the title. There will be some unexpected results in the next few weeks and we need to make sure we are not amongst them.
Pegosteve Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Derby win 10 still only puts them on 91. 6 wins for us and we are on 92. They also have to go to Reading and Leeds. 10 wins for Derby highly unlikely! They are right to be more concerned about Wigan. they won't even catch Burnley.
cc_star Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Our current points total is the 2nd highest after 33 games over the past decade, so being overhauled is incredibly unlikely. But Derby could win 10, they've got the easier 13 games & that means they are where they are having played tougher teams, meaning that moving forward wins are more likely, not less. They already won 7 in a row before we thrashed them. We only need to fail to win a couple of times & we'll have Burnley breathing down our necks, it then becomes a mental issue whether we fold or not, not a footballing ability issue. There's plenty more work to do While promotion is the important thing it would be nice to pick the silverware up too.
ramadaone Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Can one of you clever lads please do a count down on when we will definitely be promoted even if us,Burnley and Derby keep winning Obviously as we and others gain / drop points the "promotion" game will change Think it currently stands at Burnley away as being the game to seal it but will stand corrected Ta
Lichfieldfox. Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Derby have to pick up an average of one more point per game than us every game for 13 games. It's just not going to happen.
THEBIGJOHNSTEADER; Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 I think we should change the lyrics to "up the football here we go" to "up the football league we go" as I believe we are dead certs for at least the play offs now. I think yesterday we ended Charltons play off hopes definately
Guest Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Derby, Forest, QPR even Burnley are more worried about 2nd place (or 7th) than they are about catching us. They have put us out of their minds and are concentrating on the real world.
Stan Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 I'm going to park the twitchy bum and take some comfort from the latest odds e.g. SkyBet 1/100 for promotion.
Deucalion Posted 2 March 2014 Posted 2 March 2014 Can one of you clever lads please do a count down on when we will definitely be promoted even if us,Burnley and Derby keep winning Obviously as we and others gain / drop points the "promotion" game will change Think it currently stands at Burnley away as being the game to seal it but will stand corrected Ta Not claiming to be clever but made this table for my own amusement. Tried copying it before and it didn't work very well but I'll try again. Deleted that because it was gobbledigook !!
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