XLM Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 6 wins from our remaining games and a draw against Burnley should be enough for the title I think
MGLCFC Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 6 wins and provided we don't lose to Burnley and QPR as well, I think that would be Champions.
ealingfox Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 Burnley do look like they'll be finishing on a very high total. They never lose and they've learnt how to win from unlikely positions, probably by watching us. They'll more than likely beat us at Turf Moor and push us very close for 1st place if not overtake us.
Pookie Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 I did this table three games ago when I thought we needed 89 points for promotion and I have since lowered that to 87 points. Given Burnley's form we could need 93 points to win the league. The tables at bottom show the maximum number of points each club can drop if we get 13, 16, or 19 points, you will see that Derby can only drop 9 points & QPR 11 points if we get another 13 points The table on the right shows how many points over the last 3/4 matches each club has gained and dropped (QPR & Derby have dropped 5 & 6 points in that time) we have dropped 2 If we get 13 points we can rule out in my opinion anybody below QPR and you can see what is needed by Derby & QPR if we get another 19 points and they wont get that Since McClaren left QPR for Derby the hoops have picked up 37 points from 24 matches (23 from 9 before he left) It took us 6 matches to go from Derby & QPR current points (we was on 60 points after 27 matches) to get to our 74 points (4 wins and 2 draws), I estimate us to clinch promotion either away at Reading or at home to QPR, of course I hope its before!
Pegosteve Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 I think 87 will be enough we should get to this by Sheff Wed game, I think it will be Reading away when it will be mathematically impossible to catch us. Love all this prediction stuff, I am the worlds biggest pessimist but we will not cock this up its now only a question of time. We all seem to be worried about the games against Burnley, Wigan and QPR but next season these will be the games we need to win to stay up so we may as well start by wining them now, lets be positive and say we will.
Jobyfox Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 A mathematical way of calculating the points required to achieve promotion might be thus: At the start of the season the maximum points required for promotion would be 138 (46 x 3 points). At this moment in time the maximum points required is 100 points. That means it has dropped 38 points over 33 games (the amount QPR have played) or rate of 1.15 points per game. If it continues to drop at the same rate then the target will reduce by a further 15 points over the next 13 games making a total of 53 points (total drop). 138-53 = 85 points So the current target would be 86 points for promotion if the vagaries of form continued at their current rate.
Xen Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 A mathematical way of calculating the points required to achieve promotion might be thus: At the start of the season the maximum points required for promotion would be 138 (46 x 3 points). At this moment in time the maximum points required is 100 points. That means it has dropped 38 points over 33 games (the amount QPR have played) or rate of 1.15 points per game. If it continues to drop at the same rate then the target will reduce by a further 15 points over the next 13 games making a total of 53 points (total drop). 138-53 = 85 points So the current target would be 86 points for promotion if the vagaries of form continued at their current rate. Interesting way of thinking about it - I like it! That would mean only 12 points needed from our remaining 13 games. We could be averaging less than 1ppg and still have a strong chance of being promoted. Similarly, the max needed to be champions has dropped from 138 to 105. A drop of 33 after 34 games is a little under 1 per game so (rounding) that rate gives roughly 93 points needed for champions (92 as second place), which is pretty similar to most guesses so far. 18 points, or 6 wins (or 5 and 3 draws) should do it.
Stan Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 Burnley do look like they'll be finishing on a very high total. They never lose and they've learnt how to win from unlikely positions, probably by watching us. They'll more than likely beat us at Turf Moor and push us very close for 1st place if not overtake us. Do we not also look like finishing on a 'very high total'? A total most likely to exceed Burnley's, even if we lose at their place
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 I think 87 will be enough we should get to this by Sheff Wed game, I think it will be Reading away when it will be mathematically impossible to catch us. Love all this prediction stuff, I am the worlds biggest pessimist but we will not cock this up its now only a question of time. We all seem to be worried about the games against Burnley, Wigan and QPR but next season these will be the games we need to win to stay up so we may as well start by wining them now, lets be positive and say we will. At last some sense, buy the man a drink
Guest ttfn Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 I think 87 will be enough we should get to this by Sheff Wed game, I think it will be Reading away when it will be mathematically impossible to catch us. Love all this prediction stuff, I am the worlds biggest pessimist but we will not cock this up its now only a question of time. We all seem to be worried about the games against Burnley, Wigan and QPR but next season these will be the games we need to win to stay up so we may as well start by wining them now, lets be positive and say we will. And I think QPR, Wigan and Burnley will be more scared of us than we are of them.
Rincewind Posted 10 March 2014 Posted 10 March 2014 Put this in a botebook. Maximum points the top four can get from remaining games not taking in account games played against each other. CITY........ 115 Burnley... 105 Derby........ 97 QPR.......... 99 Forest....... 91 You can do a countdown if you like eliminating teams as they fail. It seems 100 max is needed for promotion assuming QPR win every game but if they do we cannot achieve that as we have to play them. 2nd option is 98 one more than Derby but I doubt they will get the max. Will Forest get 91 No chance. So QPR and Derby just have to drop around 9 points. Then there is Burnley for the title. If we only need around 90 they have to drop 15 points and we have to drop around 25 points. So in conclusion in the words of Corpral Jones DON't PANIC
Daggers Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 Put this in a botebook. Maximum points the top four can get from remaining games not taking in account games played against each other. CITY........ 115 Burnley... 105 Derby........ 97 QPR.......... 99 Forest....... 91 That's five, Ken.
Bob Weasel Fox Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 That's five, Ken. As usual it's F@@@st's delusions of grandeur
Rincewind Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 As usual it's F@@@st's delusions of grandeur Forest do not count. There are there for the laugh factor.
Pegosteve Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 OK still think its going to need 87 points as Wigan are the form team out of the play off hopefuls. The magical 90 for certainty is only 13 points away and the chasers are now looking further away from it. Winning every game QPR can get 96, Derby 95 and Wigan 94, just not going to happen for any of them. Although I've got us down for 90 points after the Reading game although its quite conceivable that we could be racking them up before the Burnley game. Realistically its probably going to be Sheff Wed or Brighton when we get there.
Fox92 Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 Looking at it now, we need another 4 wins to secure a play off place? (That's excluding Wigan's position as they've got two games in hand).
Finnaldo Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 Looking at it now, we need another 4 wins to secure a play off place? (That's excluding Wigan's position as they've got two games in hand). Mathematically I assume?
ScouseFox Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 i'd be disappointed if we don't get 100 points now tbh.
Legend_in_blue Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 Not bothered about 90 points! Let's go for breaking 100!
Happy Fox Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 Playoffs are secured as off today if you treat a win as 2ppg.
woddyuk Posted 11 March 2014 Posted 11 March 2014 As of tonights results, 20 more points guarantees promotion 29 more points guarantees the title Leicester 77 pts max poss 113 games left 12 Burnley 69 pts max poss 105 games left 12 Derby 62 pts max poss 95 gamesleft 11 QPR 60 pts max poss 96 games left 12 Forest 56 pts max poss 89 games left 11 Reading 55 pts max poss 91 games left 12 Wigan 52 pts max poss 94 games left 14
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