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Crazy Stat Time!

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Not a stat as such, but a bit of a work-out. It's permutation time.

 

I think we are two wins away.

 

Two wins out of Sunderland away, West Ham home, Swansea home, Man Utd away, Everton home, Chelsea away.

 

That's very attainable.

 

Should we manage that, it would mean to get to 75, Spurs would need 13 points from Man Utd home, Stoke away, West Brom home, Chelsea away, Southampton home, Newcastle away.

 

For Arsenal to get there, it would mean they have to win all but one of West Ham away, Crystal Palace home, West Brom home, Sunderland away, Norwich home, Man City away, Aston Villa home.

 

Given the form of both of them, it's not impossible, but it's unlikely - it means a big swing in favour of both Arsenal and Spurs' form, and a massive swing against our own.

 

This is also on the assumption that Leicester lose the other four. We've lost three times all season. We aren't losing four of our last six. Let's be honest here.

 

Three wins for us, it would need an absolute miracle run of form from either of those two.

 

Four wins, it would need Mark Bonar to show some evidence against us, and only us.

 

So, to cut it short, we are in my eyes, wins from Sunderland away and Swansea at home, from being champions of England.

 

Good night.

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Seems like most of the season now, we have really controllered the league

It's felt a lot like the 13/14 season the way we've steadily plodded on at the top.  You know?  That season we all hallucinated for a year because none of our players have experience of winning title races.

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One for the statos with time on their hands, has a team winning the league in England, ever had 2 players in their regular starting 11 miss out on selection for England at a major tournament (excluding injuries)

By regular played 25+ games that season.

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I still cannot get my head around the fact that we have only conceded 14 league goals in the past 23 games and only 6 conceded in 2016 so far, we are in April!  Thats absurdly good at any level of football, never mind in the Prem!

Edited by kristianity77
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....and Spurs say we're lucky.

 

 

 

Stats: Who would be top of the Premier League table if shots that hit the woodwork had gone in? The top seven changes drastically if those shots had gone in
epl-table-arsenal-leicester-city-woodwor
Leicester City would be battling for top spot with Arsenal and not Tottenham

Leicester City could go on and win the Premier League title by the end of the season judging by their recent form. Ever since their loss to Arsenal at the Emirates in mid-February – only their third loss all season – they have won 16 points from six games as teams below them faltered.

The Foxes now have a seven-point lead at the top over second-placed Tottenham Hotspur who have lost only four times this season. Their north London rivals Arsenal occupy third spot with Manchester City in the final Champions League spot. 

Claudio Ranieri’s side do not look like slipping up and it could well be the most astonishing fairytale comeback in sport. Exactly a year ago to the day, the Foxes were in 20th place in the Premier League. A late season comeback saw them eventually survive relegation and finish 14th. Now, a year on, they find themselves at the summit thanks to the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy and N’Golo Kante.

Current 2015/16 EPL Table with six games to go # Club Pld GD Pts 1 Leicester City 32 24 69 2 Tottenham Hotspur 32 32 62 3 Arsenal 31 22 58 4 Manchester City 31 24 54 5 Manchester United 31 12 53 6 West Ham United 31 12 51 7 Southampton 32 8 47 8 Stoke City 32 -3 47 9 Liverpool 30 5 45 10 Chelsea 31 8 44 11 West Bromwich Albion 31 -7 40 12 Everton 30 9 38 13 Bournemouth 32 -16 38 14 Watford 31 -6 37 15 Swansea City 32 -9 37 16 Crystal Palace 31 -8 34 17 Norwich City 32 -21 31 18 Sunderland 31 -19 27 19 Newcastle United 31 -27 25 20 Aston Villa 32 -40 16

The traditional top four clubs have suffered one way or another this season. Defending champions Chelsea imploded at the start of the season and the club eventually sacked Jose Mourinho. Guus Hiddink took over as interim boss at Stamford Bridge for a second time in his career, steadied the ship and the Blues haven’t lost a game in the league since. But a number of draws have hurt their top four chances.

Similarly, Manchester United saw a an initial surge to the top under Louis van Gaal before the months of October to December saw them rapidly slide down the table and also out of the Champions League in the group stages. Manchester City have failed to beat any of the other top six sides so far and Manuel Pellegrini is on his way out of the club this summer. 

Gunners top list of teams who hit the woodwork the most this season

Arsenal probably had the best chance to mount a serious challenge for the title and even topped the table in January. The win against Leicester City proved to be a false dawn as a series of poor results saw them lose ground as the Foxes and Spurs pulled away from the Gunners.

arsenal-top-premier-league-table-woodworArsenal’s Alexis Sanchez beats Stoke City goalkeeper Jack Butland but only ends up hitting the post

But a closer look at Arsenal’s shots on goal reveals a different story. The Gunners aren’t third due to a lack of trying to score goals. They have created chances with Mesut Ozil leading the way (18 assists so far – two short of Thierry Henry’s record of 20 in a single Premier League season).

In fact, Arsene Wenger’s side have hit the posts or the crossbar more times than any other team in the league – 19 times to be exact. On the other hand, their derby rivals Spurs have been lucky to see 18 shots come off Hugo Lloris’s goal.

 

If these shots that hit the woodwork had gone in, the EPL table takes on a very different complexion. Arsenal would actually have been top of the table with Leicester City in second place only on goal difference (although the Gunners do have a game in hand). 

West Ham, currently in sixth place would be third while Manchester City still hold on to the fourth spot. Tottenham actually fall out of the top four while United fall even further down to seventh with Liverpool moving up to fifth. Chelsea even drop down to the lower half of the table. 

However, there is no change in the relegation zone with the same three teams (Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa) propping up the rest of the clubs. 

2015/16 EPL Table if shots that hit the woodwork had gone in # Club Pld GD Pts 1 Arsenal 31 31 59 2 Leicester City 32 23 59 3 West Ham United 31 18 57 4 Manchester City 31 26 56 5 Liverpool 30 11 53 6 Tottenham Hotspur 32 27 52 7 Manchester United 31 7 49 8 Everton 30 16 48 9 Southampton 32 12 48 10 Stoke City 32 -10 42 11 Swansea City 32 -4 41 12 Chelsea 31 6 40 13 Crystal Palace 31 -8 40 14 Watford 31 -8 39 15 Bournemouth 32 -18 37 16 West Bromwich Albion 31 -13 35 17 Norwich City 32 -21 34 18 Sunderland 31 -18 32 19 Newcastle United 31 -36 26 20 Aston Villa 32 -43 12

Stats courtesy of Opta Sports

 

http://www.sportskeeda.com/football/stats-who-top-premier-league-table-shots-hit-woodwork-gone-in

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Thank goodness for the woodwork then :D

Both us & Spurs have benefited the most from the post looking at that - we'd both lose 10 points, more than any other clubs.  Because I'm a fun guy here's a table of how many more/less points each team would have if the shots against the woodwork went in:

  1. Everton +10

  2. Liverpool +8

  3. Crystal Palace +6

  4. West Ham +6

  5. Sunderland +5

  6. Swansea +4

  7. Norwich +3

  8. Man City +2

  9. Watford +2

10. Arsenal +1

11. Newcastle +1
12. Southampton +1
13. Bournemouth -1
14. Aston Villa -4
15. Chelsea -4

16. Man Utd -4

17. Stoke -5

18. West Brom -5

19. Leicester City -10

20. Tottenham -10

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Not a stat as such, but a bit of a work-out. It's permutation time.

 

I think we are two wins away.

 

Two wins out of Sunderland away, West Ham home, Swansea home, Man Utd away, Everton home, Chelsea away.

 

That's very attainable.

 

Should we manage that, it would mean to get to 75, Spurs would need 13 points from Man Utd home, Stoke away, West Brom home, Chelsea away, Southampton home, Newcastle away.

 

For Arsenal to get there, it would mean they have to win all but one of West Ham away, Crystal Palace home, West Brom home, Sunderland away, Norwich home, Man City away, Aston Villa home.

 

Given the form of both of them, it's not impossible, but it's unlikely - it means a big swing in favour of both Arsenal and Spurs' form, and a massive swing against our own.

 

This is also on the assumption that Leicester lose the other four. We've lost three times all season. We aren't losing four of our last six. Let's be honest here.

 

Three wins for us, it would need an absolute miracle run of form from either of those two.

 

Four wins, it would need Mark Bonar to show some evidence against us, and only us.

 

So, to cut it short, we are in my eyes, wins from Sunderland away and Swansea at home, from being champions of England.

 

Good night.

3 wins and 1 draw is the amount needed to ensure both Arsenal and Spurs would need to win all of their remaining games to catch us (Arse on goal difference) if I've worked that out correctly!

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1963?

 

 

Are you always so pessimistic? Don't you even occasionally have positive days? I'm still taking one game at a time but today's team is nothing like the 1963 team, nor are the curcumstances. 

 

We were one point clear around this time not seven. We also had FA Cup games to contend with, beating Liverpool to reach the Final - and all with a paperthin squad which virtually picked itself but had manager Matt Gillies using even fewer players than Ranieri.

 

Having to play two League games on consecutive days - against Manchester United - didn't help and once we won the semi-final the injury crisis mounted with Howard Riley recalling: 'For Bolton we had three out, Villa three out, Birmingham six out. Banks, King, Appleton and Stringfellow all missed that game. We just didn't have the back-up.'

 

Leicester lost four successive league games and the cup final as well. 

 

Today's situation is nothing like that.

 

We probably have as fresh a squad as anyone's, no FA Cup involvement to worry about, a far bigger points cushion than we had in 1963,  reasonable reserves for most positions, an injury record to be envied and a tactically astute manager clearly ensuring the team focuses on one match at a time.

 

No, the job's not done yet.

But I see no signs of a let-up in pace, commitment or focus whereas the team of '63 had their eyes turned by the Cup - which was treated with far more importance than today's FA Cup - and the injuries only served to damage the team's confidence.

 

There'll be no lack of confidence and belief in today's team either. We're already sure of European football - a prize we could only dream about at the beginning of the season  - stand odds-on to be in the Champions League, and will surely consider the Premier League title as a massive, marvellous and entirely acheivable bonus to add to the success we've achieved already.

 

I can't even imagine our team thinking of "six matches to go", but only of the next one to come, and how best to do our job. They've still to achieve the points target Ranieri set for the second half of the season - and I'd doubt they've any intention of letting him down.   

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