Expected Goals

[Carter The Boss]

Saw this on MOTD the other day and wasn't sure about it, but according to the website it looks good for us 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41822455

 

Leicester may already be on to their second permanent manager of the season but, despite a perception they have struggled following a winless run of six league games which led to Craig Shakespeare's departure, scratch beneath the surface and the signs are actually encouraging for new boss Claude Puel.

Not only have the Foxes taken seven points from their past three league matches, including a win and a draw in the Frenchman's two games in charge, but expected goals tells us they are performing better than their overall results suggest.

And that is one of the strengths of the expected goals metric - it can highlight underlying performance, both good and bad.

For example, in 2015-16 Juventus won only three of their opening 10 Serie A games but their expected goal difference throughout that run was much higher than their actual goal difference.

 

 

That suggested they were dominating matches and creating chances - they just weren't taking them. Over time, their actual goal difference moved closer to their expected goal difference and they eventually strolled to the title.

Leicester's stats tells a similar story.

 

Despite only being the eighth highest scorers in the division, expected goals tells us they are creating the highest-quality chances in the league.

Opta determines that 14.8% of Leicester's openings ought to end in goals, based on how good an opportunity each one was. Champions Chelsea, by comparison, would only be expected to convert 8.4% of theirs.

 

 

That is not to say Leicester are the best attacking team in the league, of course. Manchester City have the highest expected goals total, meaning they ought to be scoring more than any other side. But when the Foxes do create a chance, it is generally a good one.

And it is not only in attacking areas that Leicester are performing well.

They are the division's second-best side when it comes to restricting opponents to low-quality chances.

So, teams might be scoring against Leicester, but the chances they create are generally not particularly good ones. The Foxes would be expected to concede from just 7.3% of the shots they face - only Tottenham fare better in this regard.

 

 

Leicester, then, do not allow opponents many clear chances and they create really good openings. Not a bad recipe for a new manager to work with.

[Ted Maul]

It certainly looks good. Off the top of my head, and despite playing badly at times, we've missed good opportunities which would have won us more points against Huddersfield, Liverpool and Stoke. 

 

The defensive stat surprised me- we've conceded plenty of sloppy goals already this season. Could be seen as a positive though, that we're not giving many chances away. Stop making the errors and we should be pretty sound.

[HighPeakFox]

Yes, it backs up a feeling that things are going ok, overall.

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, Ted Maul said:

It certainly looks good. Off the top of my head, and despite playing badly at times, we've missed good opportunities which would have won us more points against Huddersfield, Liverpool and Stoke. 

 

The defensive stat surprised me- we've conceded plenty of sloppy goals already this season. Could be seen as a positive though, that we're not giving many chances away. Stop making the errors and we should be pretty sound.

I'd also add Chelsea at home which really should have been a point and 'Farce-nal' away, which I'm certain we would have won had it not been for a poor choice of substitutions. In addition to the game you mentioned, that's nine points in total assuming a draw with Liverpool which places us fifth. Saying that, there are many other sides that can say the same - the margins are so tight.,

 

Everton are in crisis and have sacked their manager, Brighton are exceeding all expectations while many Liverpool supporters are in meltdown. There are four points separating Brighton from either team.

[kingcarr21]

Just read this. Quite an interesting read. I got 3 out of 5 at the quiz thing at the end. One of the questions was what percentage for Andy King to score his header. There wasn't an option of 0.01%

[Koke]

We should have had at least 2 more points v Liverpool and Arsenal, but on the other hand we were very fortunate to get 2 points v Huddersfield and Bournemouth. Our GD is 0. We are scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 1.5 goals per game. 

 

Puel is working from a solid enough foundation, and if he can build on that we will probably be top half.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Over analysis of football statistics is one of the dullest things going. 

[RumbleFox]

It backs up a general feeling that we are probably slightly better than results have shown and hopefully, over the course of the season, results mirror "what is exptected" more closely.  I think we will finish 7th.  There, I've said it.

 

X

[HighPeakFox]

36 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

It backs up a general feeling that we are probably slightly better than results have shown and hopefully, over the course of the season, results mirror "what is exptected" more closely.  I think we will finish 7th.  There, I've said it.

 

X

You are FIF. Consider yourself disowned 

[foxes_rule1978]

Makes sense, I feel we have been in most of the matches just not took the chances so the stats match up to how I feel. 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

Over analysis of football statistics is one of the dullest things going. 

Yep. The Expected Goals Premier League sounds like the kind of thing Spurs would win, with their fans pointing to it and claiming it as proof that they deserved to win the ACTUAL title.

 

[Fox92]

I see they've added more rubbish to football analysis. "Expected". Have a day off.

 

We've drawn, lost and won games because that's what we've done. "Expected goals" mean fvck all. If you don't take chances then you don't score.

[RumbleFox]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

You are FIF. Consider yourself disowned 

Haha, did he not say "top 8"?  I have been far more specific. X

[SheppyFox]

I think we’re the best of the rest, so to speak.  

[Stadt]

People that don't like this sort of thing will always dislike it but it's a valuable tool that's used widely in football. Football's a low scoring sport so scorelines aren't always reflective of how matches play out - the xG data says we're creating decent chances and perhaps surprisingly allowing fewer decent chances than most of the league. It's been errors that has seen us concede goals rather than an underlying defensive problem which is a positive for us as eventually the amount of errors will revert to the mean.

 

Understat has us sixth best for both xG created and 6th best xG against. xG isn't the be all and end all however generally it's strong reflection of how good teams actually are and it takes out some of the chance element that occurs in football. There are exceptions, Burnley's numbers are always awful yet they consistently outperform which could be down to a number of factors not limited to luck (variance), Dyche and the the game state's of their fixtures so far.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

44 minutes ago, Wookie said:

People that don't like this sort of thing will always dislike it but it's a valuable tool that's used widely in football. Football's a low scoring sport so scorelines aren't always reflective of how matches play out - the xG data says we're creating decent chances and perhaps surprisingly allowing fewer decent chances than most of the league. It's been errors that has seen us concede goals rather than an underlying defensive problem which is a positive for us as eventually the amount of errors will revert to the mean.

 

Understat has us sixth best for both xG created and 6th best xG against. xG isn't the be all and end all however generally it's strong reflection of how good teams actually are and it takes out some of the chance element that occurs in football. There are exceptions, Burnley's numbers are always awful yet they consistently outperform which could be down to a number of factors not limited to luck (variance), Dyche and the the game state's of their fixtures so far.

Alright Opta Wookie

[foxinsocks]

I have invented a new analysis. ...

Foxinsock's matchday perfirmance expectation.... i dont want aby player to rate less than 8 on the ft ratings

[st albans fox]

this analysis just frustrates me even more than I already am ................

[HankMarvin]

If its been posted merge or delete

 

 

Leicester - targeting the top again?

Leicester may already be on to their second permanent manager of the season but, despite a perception they have struggled following a winless run of six league games which led to Craig Shakespeare's departure, scratch beneath the surface and the signs are actually encouraging for new boss Claude Puel.

Not only have the Foxes taken seven points from their past three league matches, including a win and a draw in the Frenchman's two games in charge, but expected goals tells us they are performing better than their overall results suggest.

And that is one of the strengths of the expected goals metric - it can highlight underlying performance, both good and bad.

For example, in 2015-16 Juventus won only three of their opening 10 Serie A games but their expected goal difference throughout that run was much higher than their actual goal difference.

 

 

 

 

That suggested they were dominating matches and creating chances - they just weren't taking them. Over time, their actual goal difference moved closer to their expected goal difference and they eventually strolled to the title.

Leicester's stats tells a similar story.

Despite only being the eighth highest scorers in the division, expected goals tells us they are creating the highest-quality chances in the league.

Opta determines that 14.8% of Leicester's openings ought to end in goals, based on how good an opportunity each one was. Champions Chelsea, by comparison, would only be expected to convert 8.4% of theirs.

Which teams are creating the best quality chances?
Team	Expected goals for	Shots attempted	xG %
Leicester	16.82	114	14.8
Man City	27.55	194	14.2
Man Utd	19.8	157	12.6
Watford	15.71	131	12
Swansea	9.87	88	11.2

That is not to say Leicester are the best attacking team in the league, of course. Manchester City have the highest expected goals total, meaning they ought to be scoring more than any other side. But when the Foxes do create a chance, it is generally a good one.

And it is not only in attacking areas that Leicester are performing well.

They are the division's second-best side when it comes to restricting opponents to low-quality chances.

So, teams might be scoring against Leicester, but the chances they create are generally not particularly good ones. The Foxes would be expected to concede from just 7.3% of the shots they face - only Tottenham fare better in this regard.

Which teams are best at restricting opponents to low-quality chances?
Team	Expected goals against	Shots faced	Ave. opponents' xG %
Tottenham	6.91	99	7
Leicester	12.85	177	7.3
Burnley	16.37	195	8.4
Chelsea	11.17	131	8.5
West Brom	13.43	150	9

Leicester, then, do not allow opponents many clear chances and they create really good openings. Not a bad recipe for a new manager to work with.

 

 

On a side note 

 

Kaspar was near the bottom for the keepers making least impact

 

The keepers making the least impact
Player	Number of goals expected to concede	Number of goals conceded	xG prevented
Minimum three games
Butland (Stoke)	16.3	22	-5.7
Pickford (Everton)	18.3	22	-3.7
Foster (West Brom)	10.7	13	-2.3
Schmeichel (Leicester)	13.8	16	-2.2
Hennessey (Crystal Palace)	15	17	-2

 

 

[Osavo]

1 hour ago, HankMarvin said:

If its been posted merge or delete

 

 

Leicester - targeting the top again?

Leicester may already be on to their second permanent manager of the season but, despite a perception they have struggled following a winless run of six league games which led to Craig Shakespeare's departure, scratch beneath the surface and the signs are actually encouraging for new boss Claude Puel.

Not only have the Foxes taken seven points from their past three league matches, including a win and a draw in the Frenchman's two games in charge, but expected goals tells us they are performing better than their overall results suggest.

And that is one of the strengths of the expected goals metric - it can highlight underlying performance, both good and bad.

For example, in 2015-16 Juventus won only three of their opening 10 Serie A games but their expected goal difference throughout that run was much higher than their actual goal difference.

 

 

 

 

That suggested they were dominating matches and creating chances - they just weren't taking them. Over time, their actual goal difference moved closer to their expected goal difference and they eventually strolled to the title.

Leicester's stats tells a similar story.

Despite only being the eighth highest scorers in the division, expected goals tells us they are creating the highest-quality chances in the league.

Opta determines that 14.8% of Leicester's openings ought to end in goals, based on how good an opportunity each one was. Champions Chelsea, by comparison, would only be expected to convert 8.4% of theirs.

Which teams are creating the best quality chances?
Team	Expected goals for	Shots attempted	xG %
Leicester	16.82	114	14.8
Man City	27.55	194	14.2
Man Utd	19.8	157	12.6
Watford	15.71	131	12
Swansea	9.87	88	11.2

That is not to say Leicester are the best attacking team in the league, of course. Manchester City have the highest expected goals total, meaning they ought to be scoring more than any other side. But when the Foxes do create a chance, it is generally a good one.

And it is not only in attacking areas that Leicester are performing well.

They are the division's second-best side when it comes to restricting opponents to low-quality chances.

So, teams might be scoring against Leicester, but the chances they create are generally not particularly good ones. The Foxes would be expected to concede from just 7.3% of the shots they face - only Tottenham fare better in this regard.

Which teams are best at restricting opponents to low-quality chances?
Team	Expected goals against	Shots faced	Ave. opponents' xG %
Tottenham	6.91	99	7
Leicester	12.85	177	7.3
Burnley	16.37	195	8.4
Chelsea	11.17	131	8.5
West Brom	13.43	150	9

Leicester, then, do not allow opponents many clear chances and they create really good openings. Not a bad recipe for a new manager to work with.

 

 

On a side note 

 

Kaspar was near the bottom for the keepers making least impact

 

The keepers making the least impact
Player	Number of goals expected to concede	Number of goals conceded	xG prevented
Minimum three games
Butland (Stoke)	16.3	22	-5.7
Pickford (Everton)	18.3	22	-3.7
Foster (West Brom)	10.7	13	-2.3
Schmeichel (Leicester)	13.8	16	-2.2
Hennessey (Crystal Palace)	15	17	-2

 

 

 

Would imagine Kasper's stats here are skewed by the couple of direct free kicks we've conceded (Coutinho, Chadli) and Kante's long ranger, which probably have a fairly low percentage chance of conversion. Not saying those weren't his fault (Kante and Chadli should both probably have been saved), just saying that's probably why his stats look quite unhealthy. 

[Kitchandro]

6 hours ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Over analysis of football statistics is one of the dullest things going. 

Agreed.

 

Isn't expected goals someone else's subjective opinion that something is a good chance? We were shite before Shakespeare's sacking and no amount of over analysis is going to change that.

[Stadt]

54 minutes ago, Kitchandro said:

Agreed.

 

Isn't expected goals someone else's subjective opinion that something is a good chance? We were shite before Shakespeare's sacking and no amount of over analysis is going to change that.

xG is based on the conversion rate of hundreds of thousands of shots taken from different positions, angles, header/volley, number of defenders in shot trajectory etc. It’s not perfect at all but for example Gray’s shots typically have a remarkably low xG value because he shoots from distance and from poor angles.

[Poznan34]

6 hours ago, Fox92 said:

I see they've added more rubbish to football analysis. "Expected". Have a day off.

 

We've drawn, lost and won games because that's what we've done. "Expected goals" mean fvck all. If you don't take chances then you don't score.

So, say, we've peppered a team's goal with shots but not scored and the other team has had one shot from 30 yards out and scored and won 0-1, how do you feel at the end of the game? Is it "Oh well, the other team deserved the win" or is it "we were unlucky, we should have scored a couple there, and their's was a bit of a fluke"?

 

Do you ever say "he should have scored that" when a player misses from 6 yards out?

 

That's basically expected goals. It's just putting a probability of a shot going in based on various factors that we all subconsciously think about when watching a game. Distance from goal, the angle of the shot, the proximity of defenders. 

 

If we continue to take higher quality (nearer and more central) shots then we will score more goals in the long run. Over a season or so, the teams with the highest expected goals will have the most goals. 

 

As others have mentioned, football is very low scoring which means there's a lot of luck involved. This means, in the long run, expected goals is a better predictor of future performance than just looking at results. 

 

However, expected goals isn't a great name, think of it as "chance quality."

 

(Also, I can see how if you're just not into football stats, it can be dull! That doesn't mean it's not useful though!)

[foxinsocks]

Opinion drives discussion and allows us to assess the decision making of the club and the coach.  

Opinions are formed for obsevation and are tested by data... and opinions can be derived from data and tested by observation. ... There's room for both. ... its yin yang.

 

Just thinking about the data here i would like our team to be top in generating expected goals.  

Then if the ratio of expected to actual goals is poor we know we need to be better at finishing 

[Rogstanley]

It’s the 7th November so my expected shits for the month so far is about 5 but as far as I can remember I’ve only had one. Looking forward to a flurry of shits over the next couple of days do get my xShit back in order.