Jump to content
Cardiff_Fox

The "do they mean us?" thread pt 2

Recommended Posts

Again: xG is a simple statistical abstraction of the number and quality of chances.  What attacks have tried to maximize, and defenses to minimize, since the first Association Football match.  What fans have discussed since the first ale was raised five minutes after that.

 

It’s not a conspiracy, it’s not even an advanced stat.  It’s just an ever-evolving attempt to put numbers to the most basic and universally understood concept out there.  Granted:

 

-  It’s only the ones that actually go into the net that count.  No shit.

-  In any given match, chances do not necessarily correspond to ones that go into the net.  No shit.

-  Teams with elite finishers (like JV) convert a higher proportion of their chances.  No shit.

 

Those obvious facts do not invalidate what should be the equally obvious fact, in the long run, more and better chances result in more goals.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, SO1 said:

What is this XG bullshit. If you want to predict the future go down the street to the Psychic. Report back, I'll be more interested in hearing the results.

DcThGCvX0AMPNgV?format=jpg&name=small

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, SO1 said:

What is this XG bullshit. If you want to predict the future go down the street to the Psychic. Report back, I'll be more interested in hearing the results.

just got back, she said someone on foxes talk is about to talk a load of nonsense... 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Leeds Fox said:

This xG malarkey is literally giving toilet standard journalists a very easy article. It’s easily obtained data that isn’t yet proved to be relevant to a teams success (unless I’ve missed something).

 

Obviously teams such as Man City, Liverpool are going to have more goalscoring chances with the players they have and ultimately finish higher. Although there are plenty of factors it doesn’t take into account. A clinical striker. A teams unwillingness to take risks and wait for good opportunities. I’m sure there are more. 

I don't think you quite understand it. xG is just a measure of how many goals a team is expected to score, based on the quality of the chances it creates and whether those types of chances usually result in a goal or not.

 

I can't see why xG would take a clinical striker into account. Having a clinical striker would mean you score more than your xG suggests you should.

 

A team avoiding taking hopeful chances would barely affect their xG, as these sorts of chances barely result in a goal. It would be taken into account, however.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

I don't think you quite understand it. xG is just a measure of how many goals a team is expected to score, based on the quality of the chances it creates and whether those types of chances usually result in a goal or not.

 

I can't see why xG would take a clinical striker into account. Having a clinical striker would mean you score more than your xG suggests you should.

 

A team avoiding taking hopeful chances would barely affect their xG, as these sorts of chances barely result in a goal. It would be taken into account, however.

 

I do understand how it works. I wasn’t going to go in-depth as I believe it relies heavily on a teams style of play.

 

When I mentioned ‘hopeful chances’, I used the phrase unwillingness to take risks (in reference to losing possession while attacking). I was referring to holding possession until a high quality chance can be created. This would no doubt result in losing possession before a chance can be created. 

 

I do understand what you’re saying, but it really only does use chances as a reference and ignores a teams approach to creating chances.

 

What I’m trying to say is difficult to articulate and I’m sure what I’m trying to say can be countered on a conversational format like this.

 

We’re a team mastering a new style of play. We seem reluctant to waste possession and therefore are probably creating less chances (and the chances may be of a lower quality than we would like, again as were a side in transition).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shade said:

just got back, she said someone on foxes talk is about to talk a load of nonsense... 

 

   you must be a solid guy, she appreciates a sure thing.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Xg stat, like points is only relevant at the end of the season when everyone has played everyone.

It doesn’t take a genius to realise this season if you have played Watford, Norwich, Newcastle and Southampton (particularly at home) you will have created more chances and had more opportunities to score than if you have played Man City, Liverpool and Leicester.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

The Xg stat, like points is only relevant at the end of the season when everyone has played everyone.

It doesn’t take a genius to realise this season if you have played Watford, Norwich, Newcastle and Southampton (particularly at home) you will have created more chances and had more opportunities to score than if you have played Man City, Liverpool and Leicester.

Didn’t think about this. 

 

Our xG being low has probably been because we’ve played 4 of last year’s top 6 and struggled against a very defensive Wolves side. 

 

Thats over half our games there so no doubt it will rise. Like you said, at the end of the season is the only time you can judge it really, or at least at the half way point when you’ve played everyone at least once.

Edited by pmcla26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

The Xg stat, like points is only relevant at the end of the season when everyone has played everyone.

It doesn’t take a genius to realise this season if you have played Watford, Norwich, Newcastle and Southampton (particularly at home) you will have created more chances and had more opportunities to score than if you have played Man City, Liverpool and Leicester.

 

1 minute ago, pmcla26 said:

Didn’t think about this. 

 

Our xG being low has probably been because we’ve played 4 of last year’s top 6 and struggled against a very defensive Wolves side. 

 

Thats over half our games there so no doubt it will rise. Like you said, at the end of the season is the only time you can judge it really, or at least at the half way point when you’ve played everyone at least once.

This point was made last week ..... meanwhile, with soton away and then arsenal at home and palace away, I wouldn’t expect a dramatic increase on our Xg stats just yet .......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

F365 Says: Like 2015/16, Leicester are poised above the disarray…

F365 Says: Like 2015/16, Leicester are poised above the disarray…

Date published: Wednesday 23rd October 2019 8:22

Brendan-Rodgers-Leicester.jpg

You would understand Brendan Rodgers’ befuddlement if he was to look up and wonder ‘where the hell is everyone?’. In the Premier League standings, the Leicester boss can just about make out the large feet of Jurgen Klopp, while Pep Guardiola doesn’t look too happy to be within touching distance. But Rodgers has his back to everyone else. Frank Lampard is there peering over his shoulder, just ahead of Unai Emery tripping over his own feet. But then he’d see Roy Hodgson in sharper focus than Mauricio Pochettino, which is presumably when he’d begin to question everything. And where the **** is Ole Gunnar Solskjaer?

Rodgers’ side is perched in third place, within a win of second and a defeat of sixth. It is roughly a single rung up the ladder from where those most optimistic of Leicester’s prospects might have put them before the season. But the Foxes have almost found themselves in the top three by accident.

Because Leicester have yet to really hit their stride. This has been an impressive start, one even more fruitful than four years ago when they eventually won the title. Then they took 16 points from their opening nine games and here they are, with an additional point despite having lost a game more. But still it feels like the Foxes have more gears to move through.

It was assumed that a top four place and a subsequent return to the Champions League might take just about everything Leicester had to give from the off. The Foxes finished ninth last season after Rodgers arrived in February, while the best Claude Puel could manage the year before was 12th.

The summer was headlined by the exit of arguably their greatest asset and though they received a fair sum for their inconvenience, they chose not to invest much more than they made, instead buying Youri Tielemans to maintain the status quo alongside Ayoze Perez, Dennis Praet and second-choice right-back James Justin to give them a net spend of less than £15million.

Still, many people saw something in Rodgers and his Harry Maguire-less side and they were well backed for a European place. Not the Champions League of course; there are six super, massive clubs all fighting for those four places. But if one of them, most likely Chelsea with their transfer ban, suffered a catastrophic meltdown then Leicester were fancied to capitalise.

Chelsea have been inconsistent – though they are remedying that – and Arsenal have been, well Arsenal, despite the hope that spending more money than anyone else might turn them into something else.

Then there is Spurs and way back, closer to the foot of the table than the top six, are Manchester United. Both clubs have spent much of the early part of the season trying to outdo one another in the shambles stakes, with Spurs offering the most entertaining meltdown. Though what United’s lacks in excitement, it more than makes up for in comedic value.

Rodgers rarely needs any encouragement to feel self-satisfied but as he surveys the scene and the carnage around him and his side, the Leicester boss is quite entitled to feel smug. Without getting close to their peak, the Foxes are flying high as the best of the rest below the top two.

What outside forces does Rodgers have to fear? Chelsea are gaining some momentum but their inexperience – on the pitch and on the bench – makes them an unpredictable proposition. Arsenal won’t change, possibly ever, and will continue to flit from challengers to crisis club with each passing game. Mauricio Pochettino looks like he has run out of ideas at Spurs and, more worryingly, the will to care. Though there were at least sparks against Red Star.

Manchester United may surprise us all and go on a run up the table but their flakiness means they hold no fear for the Foxes. Even if they win the next 12, Solskjaer’s squad is just as likely to chuck in the following dozen while they rest back on their laurels and wait for another new manager to come along and give them some incentive to graft.

Beyond the traditional big six, Everton cannot be relied upon for anything other than inconsistency, while Wolves are struggling to deal with a full calendar and the expectation that they, like Leicester, might unsettle the traditional powerhouses.

Compared to the teams below them, Leicester is a picture of serenity. Rodgers filled the enormous Maguire-shaped hole from within with Caglar Soyuncu’s form making a case for the Turkey defender to be the next major mover from the King Power Stadium. James Maddison might dispute that and the attention he is attracting from outside is working in Rodgers’ favour for now. Ahead of Maddison, Jamie Vardy is making the most of limited involvement in Leicester’s play, just as the manager wishes.

 

It's........Jamie Vardy!

Since Brendan Rodgers took over at Leicester no player has scored more than Jamie Vardy's 1️⃣5️⃣ league goals.#BTSportScore

View image on Twitter
 
 
 
 

Leicester can still improve. Yes, so too could everyone below them, but the environment at the King Power is far more conducive for growth than anywhere else at present.

Perhaps breaking the big six’s stranglehold is as much a state of mind for perma-positive Rodgers. In matches at Chelsea and United this season, the Leicester boss has added a third central midfielder and moved Maddison wide, reinforcing his engine room but handicapping his most creative player. In both of those matches, with a little more belief on Rodgers’ part, Leicester should have won, rather than accepting only a point from six that were there for the taking.

Just like 2015/16, there is a path being laid for Leicester by their rivals and Rodgers is perfectly positioned to lead them right up it.

Ian Watson

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty much agree with all of that. It really feels like it's in our own hands to have another unforgettable season.

To be where we are whilst still not performing as well as most of us think we can is quite exciting. Hopefully we can start to improve and put some real daylight between us and those below us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i cant help but read this and conclude that if we finish top 4 the achievement is going to be belittled in the same way that the title winning season was - i.e. the other teams let us have it due to not being at the races.

 

i may be reading too much in to it though.

Edited by Tommo220
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Tommo220 Would not worry too much.

Fans won't belittle, but the media may well. It is not to the benefit of certain media outlets to have the outliers upsetting the norm, as it makes their jobs more difficult as it doesn't appeal to what is their largest audience. (i.e.; the largest audience)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think if we could get top four and CL, we’re in a much better position to do well squad wise, although to be fair, we did pretty well last time we were there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

F365 Says: Like 2015/16, Leicester are poised above the disarray…

Chelsea are gaining some momentum but their inexperience – on the pitch and on the bench – makes them an unpredictable proposition.

 

Arsenal won’t change, possibly ever, and will continue to flit from challengers to crisis club with each passing game.

 

Mauricio Pochettino looks like he has run out of ideas at Spurs and, more worryingly, the will to care. Though there were at least sparks against Red Star.

Manchester United may surprise us all and go on a run up the table but their flakiness means they hold no fear for the Foxes. Even if they win the next 12, Solskjaer’s squad is just as likely to chuck in the following dozen while they rest back on their laurels and wait for another new manager to come along and give them some incentive to graft

.

Beyond the traditional big six, Everton cannot be relied upon for anything other than inconsistency, while Wolves are struggling to deal with a full calendar and the expectation that they, like Leicester, might unsettle the traditional powerhouses.

Compared to the teams below them, Leicester is a picture of serenity. Rodgers filled the enormous Maguire-shaped hole from within with Caglar Soyuncu’s form making a case for the Turkey defender to be the next major mover from the King Power Stadium. James Maddison might dispute that and the attention he is attracting from outside is working in Rodgers’ favour for now. Ahead of Maddison, Jamie Vardy is making the most of limited involvement in Leicester’s play, just as the manager wishes.

There's nothing particularly wrong with that article per se. But I always find these generic statements about other clubs a bit meaningless. "The wheels have fallen off at Spurs" "Arsenal are in crisis" "Man Utd are in free fall" "Chelsea are inconsistent" 

 

It's all just a bit wooly. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

There's nothing particularly wrong with that article per se. But I always find these generic statements about other clubs a bit meaningless. "The wheels have fallen off at Spurs" "Arsenal are in crisis" "Man Utd are in free fall" "Chelsea are inconsistent" 

 

It's all just a bit wooly. 

 

It’s true though isn’t it. We’d still be having a great start but those teams having iffy starts has made our position even stronger. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where's  this xG crap all of a sudden sprung up from? In 20+ years of living breathing football this season is the first I've heard it. Surely "expected" goals is more speculation than statistical. I mean part of the beauty of football is you never know what to expect

Edited by daventry_fox

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, daventry_fox said:

Where's  this xG crap all of a sudden sprung up from? In 20+ years of living breathing football this season is the first I've heard it. Surely "expected" goals is more speculation than statistical. I mean part of the beauty of football is you never know what to expect

No, it's not speculation at all. It's really a more informative version of shots on goal and shots on target stats. It tells you how many goals a team 'should' have scored based on the number and quality of chances they created.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, daventry_fox said:

Where's  this xG crap all of a sudden sprung up from? In 20+ years of living breathing football this season is the first I've heard it. Surely "expected" goals is more speculation than statistical. I mean part of the beauty of football is you never know what to expect

Yeah all of those people with degrees, PHDs and doctorates in advanced physics, statistics & mathematics working in a burgeoning multi-mullion pound industry don't know what they're doing and are purely speculating. Living and breathing football is something those laptop nerds don't know anything about.

 

 

 

 

 

Expected goals is really useful on the whole, where it isn't useful is using it for individual games or a sample size of 10. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...