The Politics Thread 2019

[Innovindil]

5 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If that's your opinion that's your opinion, but it's a poor excuse as the simple fact is you have no power to fix the homelessness or suffering in those countries as, you know, you're not a constituent of those countries like you are of the British Parliament.

 

In terms of doing the best for your loved ones, that's all well and good until an indiscriminate strike of bad luck (something happens to yourself, plus a recession or economic downfall) means they're the next ones in the breadline. A general improvement on society means regardless what happens to you at least have some assurance they won't be down the food bank should the worst happen to you. That's without going into a decrease in crime and therefore a generally safer society for you and your loved ones to live in.

 

I'll never shout anyone down for their opinions (bar any particularly monstrous ones) but like Swan I can't see any positives for 'me vs everyone else'.

And that's essentially what it's all about. The more you have the less chance you have of being effected by these shenanigans outside of your influence, and eventually, you cross a line where "luck" doesn't come into the equation anymore. Personally, I don't see it as me vs everyone else, I make no concerted effort to keep, or take, other people down, my only interest is raising myself up, yes, it's selfish, yes, an awful lot of people don't agree with it, but I'd much rather that be my aim than to somehow think whoever (whomever?) sits on the Westminster throne will give 2 hoots about me and mine.

[HappyHamza]

1 hour ago, Innovindil said:

And that's essentially what it's all about. The more you have the less chance you have of being effected by these shenanigans outside of your influence, and eventually, you cross a line where "luck" doesn't come into the equation anymore. Personally, I don't see it as me vs everyone else, I make no concerted effort to keep, or take, other people down, my only interest is raising myself up, yes, it's selfish, yes, an awful lot of people don't agree with it, but I'd much rather that be my aim than to somehow think whoever (whomever?) sits on the Westminster throne will give 2 hoots about me and mine.

I have a question. If you don't think that anybody on the 'Westminster throne' will have any interest in making your life better, then return of soveignty can't possibly be a reason for your support of Brexit. So what do you think is going to get better for you and yours if it happens? I'm just trying to understand.

 

I realise that the answer, or lack of answer, isnt likely to change any minds, I'm just interested in the thought process. 

[Innovindil]

14 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

I have a question. If you don't think that anybody on the 'Westminster throne' will have any interest in making your life better, then return of soveignty can't possibly be a reason for your support of Brexit. So what do you think is going to get better for you and yours if it happens? I'm just trying to understand.

 

I realise that the answer, or lack of answer, isnt likely to change any minds, I'm just interested in the thought process. 

Well going along with the theme of todays topic, it's not about sovereignty, it's about me.

 

With the labour market tightening, my wages have increased over 20% in the last 3 years, the fall in the £ (good or bad depending on how you slice the cake) has meant my works order forms are full, moreso than any point in the firms history, usually we run on 3 month order blocks, we're backlogged for what seems like forever right now, obviously, we've been able to up our prices to the point where we're still cheap in comparison to where the £ was, but making more in £'s than ever before, so it's letting us invest in some pretty fancy equipment to continue this cycle of profit.

 

Admittedly, when I voted brexit, trumpet wasn't running the US or going full donkey mode, but my hope at the time was we'd move a bit closer to them, not literally obviously, but in a way that provides us cheaper products, both by importing and changing some regulations at home. GMO's in particular quite fascinate me, but they seem to have all but been killed off by the EU as a whole, and I don't particularly agree with the why. Tbh one of my biggest gripes during all this mess is that I haven't really seen it being discussed at all, with the farmers kicking off and what not I expected it to be at least teased to them to see what the reaction would be.

 

Think that's pretty much my 2 main reasons. Tbf considering how much of a cluster**** it's been so far, personally I'm actually doing pretty well from it. 

[HappyHamza]

7 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Well going along with the theme of todays topic, it's not about sovereignty, it's about me.

 

With the labour market tightening, my wages have increased over 20% in the last 3 years, the fall in the £ (good or bad depending on how you slice the cake) has meant my works order forms are full, moreso than any point in the firms history, usually we run on 3 month order blocks, we're backlogged for what seems like forever right now, obviously, we've been able to up our prices to the point where we're still cheap in comparison to where the £ was, but making more in £'s than ever before, so it's letting us invest in some pretty fancy equipment to continue this cycle of profit.

 

Admittedly, when I voted brexit, trumpet wasn't running the US or going full donkey mode, but my hope at the time was we'd move a bit closer to them, not literally obviously, but in a way that provides us cheaper products, both by importing and changing some regulations at home. GMO's in particular quite fascinate me, but they seem to have all but been killed off by the EU as a whole, and I don't particularly agree with the why. Tbh one of my biggest gripes during all this mess is that I haven't really seen it being discussed at all, with the farmers kicking off and what not I expected it to be at least teased to them to see what the reaction would be.

 

Think that's pretty much my 2 main reasons. Tbf considering how much of a cluster**** it's been so far, personally I'm actually doing pretty well from it. 

Thanks for that. 

 

I sit on the other side of the brexit debate but its not often you find a tame brexit supporter that's prepared to answer questions honestly, so I thought I'd try my luck.

 

What do you sell that's taken off so radically since the vote? 

[Innovindil]

2 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

Thanks for that. 

 

I sit on the other side of the brexit debate but its not often you find a tame brexit supporter that's prepared to answer questions honestly, so I thought I'd try my luck.

 

What do you sell that's taken off so radically since the vote? 

I'm an engineer, we make all sorts of bits and bobs, mainly machine parts. Though we dabble in fixtures and fittings and what have you, but most of the money is in specialist machine parts, usually for machines so old people can't find spares anymore. 

[HappyHamza]

47 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

I'm an engineer, we make all sorts of bits and bobs, mainly machine parts. Though we dabble in fixtures and fittings and what have you, but most of the money is in specialist machine parts, usually for machines so old people can't find spares anymore. 

So a weaker pound might have helped you with exporting? It's a strange one as that was supposedly going to be a knock on benefit of the fall in sterling. It seems to have worked where you work but I'm led to believe this isn't the case more generally  - exports nationally haven't gained by any significant amount.

 

Where is your largest export market and what tariffs would they apply if we land on WTO terms? The tariff schedules are highly complex but hopefully somebody in your company has looked into this!

Edited 29 August 2019 by HappyHamza

[Grebfromgrebland]

51 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

I'm an engineer, we make all sorts of bits and bobs, mainly machine parts. Though we dabble in fixtures and fittings and what have you, but most of the money is in specialist machine parts, usually for machines so old people can't find spares anymore. 

That's pretty interesting I know someone who works for a firm doing pretty much the same thing and they're terrified of brexit. Anyway glad it's working out for you. Do you think things would still stay good after brexit from what we know so far?

[Innovindil]

4 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

So a weaker pound might have helped you with exporting? It's a strange one as that was supposedly going to be a knock on benefit of the fall in sterling. It seems to have worked where you work but I'm led to believe this isn't the case more generally  - exports nationally haven't gained by any significant amount.

 

Where is your largest export market and what tariffs would they apply if we land on WTO terms? The tariff schedules are highly complex but hopefully somebody in your company has looked into this!

We export world wide already and I'm surprised the fall in the pound hasn't been more a boom for manufacturing, honestly have no idea why this would be. We might have had more success because we're only a small business, so a boom for us in overall terms would be considered small and we're a bit of a niche manufacturing firm. Most these days are all about quantity, when we're more focused on specialist one off machine parts.

 

Honestly I have no idea what sort of tariffs we'd be looking at on WTO, the gaffers seem unworried so I'd assume what are profit margin has increased by would outweigh any tariffs. With that said, when I voted brexit the idea was we'd leave with some form of deal.

[Innovindil]

6 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

That's pretty interesting I know someone who works for a firm doing pretty much the same thing and they're terrified of brexit. Anyway glad it's working out for you. Do you think things would still stay good after brexit from what we know so far?

Any manufacturing firm directly tied to the EU, like the motor industry would probably be terrified of brexit tbf, we're more world wide oriented than most already. If you're asking if things with the business I'm at will remain good then yes I believe they will. It's all the other bullshit that we've failed to utilize the 3 years we've had to prepare for that'll be the problem. 

[Kopfkino]

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Can the opposition now avoid being dared into a people v. parliament situation? Short of sitting back and daring Boris to do No Deal, they have to fight his plan, surely, which brings the risk of being depicted as "the anti-democratic parliament" thwarting the will of the people. Maybe they just need to win the public argument as to who is being democratic, not easy but not necessarily impossible: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/28/47-27-brits-oppose-parliament-suspension

That's just one poll, but suggests the public is 47%-27% opposed to Boris' suspension, with even 27% of Tories & 25% of Leave voters opposed.

I don't see how they avoid it. They are walking into it hook line and sinker because they don't really have much choice. A small chunk could wait for a new deal to be presented to them and panic into backing it (the Labour MPs that must be wishing they backed May) which is a situation Brois must be keen to engineer. People may oppose parliament being suspended, I oppose it but I also oppose parliament, at least a not insignificant portion, seeking to block Brexit. I follow it more closely than most and I feel that for most with just a passing interest or less the Brexit democratic argument will win out if parliament acts in the coming weeks.

 

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Although a Boris majority in an election is a distinct possibility, it would still be a massive gamble. I'm pretty sure that Labour will lose seats to the Tories (Labour Leave seats, the more marginal prosperous seats they won on the Remain/youth vote surge in 2017) as well as Scottish seats to the SNP. But I'm also pretty sure that the Tories will lose Scottish seats to the SNP & seats in the SW & SE to the Lib Dems. There's also the Brexit Party factor. I'd expect some sort of Boris-Nigel electoral understanding, but it won't be easy for Farage to just back down with Brexit undone, trusting in Boris (of all people) to keep his word and not cut some sort of a deal with the EU if he gets a majority.....and not easy for the Tories to, say, back down from campaigning in certain seats to give the Brexit Party a free run. Even a limited Brexit Party election campaign could harm Tory chances of a majority.

Gamble worth taking given the current stasis and it gives him 5 years. Although tbh, he needs an election with Brexit still on the table because a)I can't imagine fighting an election during a no deal situation will go well and b)Labour leavers are less likely to back him when its 'done'. Therefore surely the dream scenario for him is a people v parliament election, with a delayed Brexit that gives him the time to renegotiate something and a majority so that he does not have to rely on the 'Spartans' or the DUP. I think the danger is BXP and I don't think he'll want to go near a pact with them but their outflanking will hurt. I understand the Lib Dem worry in some parts of the south and it will hurt but I think it will be limited but there's never going to be a Labour/Lib Dem pact and also Conservative remainers have a lot further to move on other policy to get to another policy than pretty much any other group of voters. I feel I sit in the same situation as those Conservative remainers, I might be tempted to vote Lib Dem but if I felt I could trust him to sort a deal post an election then I'd not hesitate to vote for him given the options and situation. Idk an election situation really depends on what the situation will actually be, lots of variation

 

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Is the EU likely to make any meaningful concessions, even if it becomes clear that Parliament cannot stop No Deal? I can see them making some juicy offerings for inclusion in the Political Declaration. But they've been unequivocal that the backstop is staying (in the absence of viable alternatives miraculously being revealed at the last minute) and that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be renegotiated. It would be a hell of a climbdown, making them look very weak, if they backed down on either of those positions. Everyone from Salvini & LePen to Putin & Trump would be licking their lips at that. Surely, beyond minor concessions, the EU is more likely to take the hit from No Deal, assuming that the hit on the UK will be much bigger & that they'll then be in a strong negotiating position post-No Deal?

I don't know, I give up second guessing the EU. Bovril makes the point that it's a political project and not an economic one making it less likely to move. The integrity of the single market and member state unity are of vital importance but political actors often prioritise economics in a crisis moment (not always hence the UK is contemplating no deal) so its not so simple. I do take your point that it would convey weakness and Trump would jump with joy. However, Merkel wants a deal, Ireland is stuck between a rock and a hard place, Boris impressed at the G7 and the noises coming from the EU before yesterday were more positive. So movement is possible but time and the fact nothing gets past parliament are big barriers to the EU actually moving. I said we'd need up back at the NI-only backstop and it seems like something close to that (dialled back further) is possible if parliament is willing and if time was on our side. That mainly comes from Nick Gutteridge.

 

12 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I take your final point about the questionable tactical wisdom of rejecting the WA. But is there some hindsight here? Some of the indicative votes came close to winning support (Ken Clarke's Customs Union proposal, the Common Market 2.0 proposal, even the second referendum option, though that was further back, as I recall). If there was a tactical gaffe by the opposition, maybe it was in not showing more flexibility at this stage, rather than in not backing the WA.

No doubt many will wish they'd compromised more at that stage too, or been able to build a more solid plan to coalesce around. Tbh parliament must wish it had taken more of an interest all along, using the committee system to actually bother to understand the situation (some MPs are woefully ill-informed and just wrong) and work with government to develop a real plan. Of course the government weren't particularly helpful.

Edited 29 August 2019 by Kopfkino

[UpTheLeagueFox]

5 hours ago, Innovindil said:

I make no concerted effort to keep, or take, other people down, my only interest is raising myself up, yes, it's selfish

I don't think it's selfish at all to want to better yourself without trampling on others.

In fact I think it's a trait which should be applauded.

[leicsmac]

7 hours ago, Innovindil said:

And that's essentially what it's all about. The more you have the less chance you have of being effected by these shenanigans outside of your influence, and eventually, you cross a line where "luck" doesn't come into the equation anymore. Personally, I don't see it as me vs everyone else, I make no concerted effort to keergp, or take, other people down, my only interest is raising myself up, yes, it's selfish, yes, an awful lot of people don't agree with it, but I'd much rather that be my aim than to somehow think whoever (whomever?) sits on the Westminster throne will give 2 hoots about me and mine.

I'm sorry, Inno, but while I see where you're coming from the simple truth is IMO no one crosses that line, not you, not me, not now, not ever - not even someone with as much power as, say, Trump or Bezos can escape what the world might throw at them. Every one of us is, after all, only human, and one of seven and a half billion in a world of countless other organisms, a world that can change rapidly in terms of its hospitality either through our own action or simply because it feels like it.

 

With respect, though I'm sure you can do a lot to reduce the risk by self interested behaviour as you say, the idea you can end up disregarding it entirely is horribly flawed and (I mean the following sincerely) I really hope that thought doesn't come back to trouble you in the future.

Edited 30 August 2019 by leicsmac

[Innovindil]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

I'm sorry, Inno, but while I see where you're coming from the simple truth is IMO no one crosses that line, not you, not me, not now, not ever - not even someone with as much power as, say, Trump or Bezos can escape what the world might throw at them. Every one of us is, after all, only human, and one of seven and a half billion in a world of countless other organisms, a world that can change rapidly in terms of its hospitality either through our own action or simply because it feels like it.

 

With respect, though I'm sure you can do a lot to reduce the risk by self interested behaviour as you say, the idea you can end up disregarding it entirely is horribly flawed and (I mean the following sincerely) I really hope that thought doesn't come back to trouble you in the future.

Tbf, it's a more mundane line than what you're thinking in your head. Of course money isn't going to save you from an apocalypse. But then you're not likely to care after that anyways. 

 

It's more removing the luck of normal occurances, inflation, bank crisis, governments falling etc etc than making a person immortal, as far as I know that's not possible. 

[Grebfromgrebland]

This is really the end of UK democracy unless we take serious action now. It's not about leave Vs remain, we're all going to be shafted. It's about the super rich and corporations Vs the 65 million UK citizens. We need to wake up and smell the coffee.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grebfromgrebland]

So far we're looking at corruption within the judiciary, the police, electoral commission, the BBC and if course the government.  Russian and American dark money has it's tentacles in the entire British system now and they're now untouchable. Almost.

 

Where do we go from here, this country is at a cross roads.  

[davieG]

55 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

So far we're looking at corruption within the judiciary, the police, electoral commission, the BBC and if course the government.  Russian and American dark money has it's tentacles in the entire British system now and they're now untouchable. Almost.

 

Where do we go from here, this country is at a cross roads.  

 ...and you think that's something new. Was it ever the same and I suspect it will always be.

 

Yes I know it's serious.

[Buce]

51 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

So far we're looking at corruption within the judiciary, the police, electoral commission, the BBC and if course the government.  Russian and American dark money has it's tentacles in the entire British system now and they're now untouchable. Almost.

 

Where do we go from here, this country is at a cross roads.  

 

And all roads lead to somewhere we really don't want to be.

[David Guiza]

My better half is having her teaching observed by Gavin Williamson today. 

 

She loves the arts so I've told her to ask him if he and his Government intend on stopping the cuts to the same; she'd better not let me down!

[Buce]

13 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

My better half is having her teaching observed by Gavin Williamson today. 

 

She loves the arts so I've told her to ask him if he and his Government intend on stopping the cuts to the same; she'd better not let me down!

 

I suppose calling him a **** would just get her fired?

[Wortho]

I love seeing all the seething remainers moaning. They have used Parliament to block the democratic vote from leaving the EU.

Now they have been outflanked and out thought by the government all they do is cry. 

 

Apparently they will block bridges and shut down the streets which reminds me of the 1970's with the unions running the country.

[davieG]

A Scottish judge has refused to order a temporary halt to Boris Johnson's plan to shut down the UK Parliament.

A group of 75 parliamentarians were seeking an interim interdict - similar to an injunction - at the Court of Session ahead of a full hearing.

Their request was declined by Lord Doherty, who said he was not satisfied there was a "cogent need" for an interdict.

However the full hearing will now be heard next Tuesday, rather than Friday.

Lord Doherty said this was because it was in the interests of justice, and in the public interest, for the case - which is opposed by the UK government - to proceed as quickly as possible.

But he said: "I am not satisfied that it as been demonstrated that there is a need for an interim suspension or an interim interdict to be granted at this stage."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49521132

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, Wortho said:

I love seeing all the seething remainers moaning. They have used Parliament to block the democratic vote from leaving the EU.

Now they have been outflanked and out thought by the government all they do is cry. 

 

Apparently they will block bridges and shut down the streets which reminds me of the 1970's with the unions running the country.

 

How do you honestly think this helps anything?

 

You said exactly this in different words earlier this week and when I questioned it you've been radio silence since, apparently other than posting another boring wind-up merchant post designed to get negative attention that's adding nothing to the discourse.

 

It really doesn't matter whether you're Remain or Leave, I'd like to see the more sensible and moderate posters on here who've had rather constructive debate over the last couple of dates actively oppose this kind of attention-seeking because its ultimately poisoning any conversation we have on here.

Edited 30 August 2019 by Finnaldo

[RoboFox]

12 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

How do you honestly think this helps anything?

 

You said exactly this in different words earlier this week and when I questioned it you've been radio silence since, apparently other than posting another boring wind-up merchant post designed to get negative attention that's adding nothing to the discourse.

 

It really doesn't matter whether you're Remain or Leave, I'd like to see the more sensible and moderate posters on here who've had rather constructive debate over the last couple of dates actively oppose this kind of attention-seeking because its ultimately poisoning any conversation we have on here.

 

To be honest, there's been a trend of these kind of posts from many of the leave voters on here for some time.

 

It's almost like any kind of coherent and pertinent arguments have long since dried up and it's the only thing they have left.

 

Edited 30 August 2019 by RoboFox

[Finnaldo]

3 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

 

To be honest, there's been a trend of these kind of posts from many of the leave voters on here for some time.

 

It's almost like any kind of coherent and pertinent arguments have long since dried up and it's the only thing they have left.

 

 

Tbf Inno went into detail about how he's benefited, whether I agree or not it's a valid opinion.

 

Much better then certain posters have provided anyway.

[The Guvnor]

32 minutes ago, davieG said:

A Scottish judge has refused to order a temporary halt to Boris Johnson's plan to shut down the UK Parliament.

A group of 75 parliamentarians were seeking an interim interdict - similar to an injunction - at the Court of Session ahead of a full hearing.

Their request was declined by Lord Doherty, who said he was not satisfied there was a "cogent need" for an interdict.

However the full hearing will now be heard next Tuesday, rather than Friday.

Lord Doherty said this was because it was in the interests of justice, and in the public interest, for the case - which is opposed by the UK government - to proceed as quickly as possible.

But he said: "I am not satisfied that it as been demonstrated that there is a need for an interim suspension or an interim interdict to be granted at this stage."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49521132

Was listening to a former , I believe , Supreme High Court Judge who said you cannot rule against 'good' or 'bad' Political decisions only legal decisions, ie the decision to suspend Parliament is a Political decision.

Edited 30 August 2019 by The Guvnor