The Politics Thread 2019

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

They don’t have time.  Three will be a deal without a backstop.  This is necessary to convince the EU no deal is a real threat. 

 

Once upon a time, I thought it quite likely that the EU would turn round and shaft the Irish in the way you suggest. Maybe they still might, but I'm highly dubious.

 

Firstly, at a time when they face all sorts of challenges internally, it would send out a real message of weakness to nationalists/populists across Europe and others wanting to pick a fight with them would scent blood.

It would also send a message of unreliability to members that might need its support. Ironically, if the EU were stronger as an institution, it might be strong enough to make such  a morally questionable move.

 

Secondly, under WTO rules any nation or trading bloc is obliged to establish adequate border checks with other nations/blocs that have divergent customs/trading regimes, don't they?

Can't remember the detail but remember reading about that, though there might be some way around it. Third countries could bring WTO cases against the EU or UK if they fail to control their markets, I think.

[Innovindil]

21 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

So the queen approved Boris the dictator's request.

 

An unelected royal allowed an unelected PM to suspend parliament so a no deal brexit plan nobody voted for can pass. Democracy in action right there.

 

The UK is finished.

Imagine the blowback if the queen had said no, someone born into their riches and power dictating what the uk government can do, I'm sure that would have gone down well.

 

I'd have had to join the remainers vitriol for the day. 

 

[lgfualol]

13 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

When do you leave?

 

I have been living in Germany since brexit was announced 😅 

[Grebfromgrebland]

The UK has been divided and conquered. 

[iniesta]

Parliament will sit for three weeks, before 31st October.

They have ample time to oppose it. They had ample time to oppose it this summer, but decided to go on holiday instead.

They've had ample time for the past 3 years to oppose it.

[Manini]

This all seems a little bit ****ing mental doesn’t it? 

[Legend_in_blue]

Rees-Mogg has had a great day.  He's laughing.

[Buce]

 

"We didn't vote to leave without a deal. That wasn't the message of the campaign I helped lead. During that campaign, we said we should do a deal with the EU and be part of the network of free trade deals that covers all Europe, from Iceland to Turkey.  Leaving without a deal on March 29 would not honour that commitment. It would undoubtedly cause economic turbulence.”

 

Michael Gove in March.

 

"To prorogue is to suspend parliamentary democracy, and that goes against everything that those men who waded on to those beaches fought and died for”

 

Matt Hancock during the leadership campaign

Edited 28 August 2019 by Buce

[Countryfox]

 

Team news available ..   

[Kopfkino]

25 minutes ago, iniesta said:

Parliament will sit for three weeks, before 31st October.

They have ample time to oppose it. They had ample time to oppose it this summer, but decided to go on holiday instead.

They've had ample time for the past 3 years to oppose it.

 

Shh don't tell em, the impulsive overreaction is fun to watch. 

 

If parliament is unable to stop no deal now it'll be the failing of the people in parliemt rather than the fact its not sitting for a bit and their reaction plays into Boris' hands. I think Bovril was right earlier, just part of the game. 

[BlueSi13]

2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Shh don't tell em, the impulsive overreaction is fun to watch. 

 

If parliament is unable to stop no deal now it'll be the failing of the people in parliemt rather than the fact its not sitting for a bit and their reaction plays into Boris' hands. I think Bovril was right earlier, just part of the game. 

People were warned not to underestimate Boris and they didn't listen.  He has played an absolute blinder here.  He's riding high in every poll and every scenario now plays wonderfully in to his hands for the upcoming People Vs Parliament election, be it before or after Brexit on the 31st 

 

 

 

 

[Legend_in_blue]

34 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

"We didn't vote to leave without a deal. That wasn't the message of the campaign I helped lead. During that campaign, we said we should do a deal with the EU and be part of the network of free trade deals that covers all Europe, from Iceland to Turkey.  Leaving without a deal on March 29 would not honour that commitment. It would undoubtedly cause economic turbulence.”

 

Michael Gove in March.

 

"To prorogue is to suspend parliamentary democracy, and that goes against everything that those men who waded on to those beaches fought and died for”

 

Matt Hancock during the leadership campaign

Gove is full of ****.  Wrecks everything he touches.  

[Leicester_Loyal]

This is all aimed for a reworked deal with Boris then blaming MPs for a no deal Brexit if they fail to approve it.

[Salisbury Fox]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Once upon a time, I thought it quite likely that the EU would turn round and shaft the Irish in the way you suggest. Maybe they still might, but I'm highly dubious.

 

Secondly, under WTO rules any nation or trading bloc is obliged to establish adequate border checks with other nations/blocs that have divergent customs/trading regimes, don't they?

Can't remember the detail but remember reading about that, though there might be some way around it. Third countries could bring WTO cases against the EU or UK if they fail to control their markets, I think.

I was listening to an interview the other day with a former head of the border service who suggested that the customs technology that the government are proposing to use is growing in use around the world already and that the EU’s stance is illogical. What would be the issue of using the technology ourselves to get round the WTO issue? Genuine question as as it seems plausible to me.

[urban.spaceman]

My thoughts:

 

 

[HappyHamza]

3 hours ago, lgfualol said:

I have been living in Germany since brexit was announced 😅 

The rest of us appear to be living in 1930s Germany.

[Alf Bentley]

37 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

I was listening to an interview the other day with a former head of the border service who suggested that the customs technology that the government are proposing to use is growing in use around the world already and that the EU’s stance is illogical. What would be the issue of using the technology ourselves to get round the WTO issue? Genuine question as as it seems plausible to me.

 

Was it this geezer? https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage/switzerland-solution-irish-backstop/

If so, he should have some knowledge but there might be question marks over his impartiality as he's now MD of Fortinus Global, a company selling border management services.

Even then, from his own comments in the 2 clips here, he doesn't sound confident that he has a comprehensive solution - only parts of a potential solution, used in places like Norway & Switzerland, where they still have a hard border.

 

My understanding is that we already knew that parts of a potential solution exist: the "trusted trader" schemes seem a viable element, and digitized checks on large firms away from the border should be feasible.

 

As I understand it, some elements of the remaining problem are: (1) the border is 310 miles long; (2) there are about 270 road crossings of that border; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland–United_Kingdom_border

(3) although a majority of trade is by big firms, an enormous number of farmers and small traders frequently do cross-border trade in Ireland (livestock & agrifoods are a major economic sector).

 

To take an example: a truckload of meat not originating from a "trusted trader" or large firm drives down a country lane in Fermanagh to cross into the Irish Republic. Without border checks, how are you going to know whether that meat is EU-compliant or is produced under different UK standards or imported from the USA under standards now acceptable in the UK but unacceptable in Irish Republic/EU? Likewise, how do you ensure that small traders and farmers now pay all the tariffs applicable to cross-border trade? Because if you don't, then surely the market is destabilised to the disadvantage of big/trusted traders using closely-monitored official channels & paying tariffs..... 

 

Unless you can somehow digitize every farm, slaughterhouse, warehouse and truck on the island, you have a big potential problem with smuggling, fraud and unfair trading/market conditions.....

That situation doesn't exist now as the same customs/market conditions apply on both sides of the border - and apply to third country imports arriving on either side of the border (e.g. from USA, Brazil or wherever). Under the backstop, that would still be the case.

 

Of course, if there is a clear, comprehensive system to use technology to replace the backstop, presumably it will soon be revealed. Makes you wonder why Boris doesn't just publish his solution. If it's as good as he implies, it will make the UK look good, make the EU look stupid/intransigent & will potentially eliminate the need for the backstop......almost makes you think that the miraculous, comprehensive solution is NOT just around the corner, or why would it be kept so secret?

 

Of course, checks in the Irish Sea would eliminate a lot of the need for the backstop or a hard land border (possibly in tandem with inland checks on production standards), but that is ruled out for purely political reasons - the Tory/DUP alliance.

[Salisbury Fox]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Was it this geezer? https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage/switzerland-solution-irish-backstop/

If so, he should have some knowledge but there might be question marks over his impartiality as he's now MD of Fortinus Global, a company selling border management services.

Even then, from his own comments in the 2 clips here, he doesn't sound confident that he has a comprehensive solution - only parts of a potential solution, used in places like Norway & Switzerland, where they still have a hard border.

 

My understanding is that we already knew that parts of a potential solution exist: the "trusted trader" schemes seem a viable element, and digitized checks on large firms away from the border should be feasible.

 

As I understand it, some elements of the remaining problem are: (1) the border is 310 miles long; (2) there are about 270 road crossings of that border; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland–United_Kingdom_border

(3) although a majority of trade is by big firms, an enormous number of farmers and small traders frequently do cross-border trade in Ireland (livestock & agrifoods are a major economic sector).

 

To take an example: a truckload of meat not originating from a "trusted trader" or large firm drives down a country lane in Fermanagh to cross into the Irish Republic. Without border checks, how are you going to know whether that meat is EU-compliant or is produced under different UK standards or imported from the USA under standards now acceptable in the UK but unacceptable in Irish Republic/EU? Likewise, how do you ensure that small traders and farmers now pay all the tariffs applicable to cross-border trade? Because if you don't, then surely the market is destabilised to the disadvantage of big/trusted traders using closely-monitored official channels & paying tariffs..... 

 

Unless you can somehow digitize every farm, slaughterhouse, warehouse and truck on the island, you have a big potential problem with smuggling, fraud and unfair trading/market conditions.....

That situation doesn't exist now as the same customs/market conditions apply on both sides of the border - and apply to third country imports arriving on either side of the border (e.g. from USA, Brazil or wherever). Under the backstop, that would still be the case.

 

Of course, if there is a clear, comprehensive system to use technology to replace the backstop, presumably it will soon be revealed. Makes you wonder why Boris doesn't just publish his solution. If it's as good as he implies, it will make the UK look good, make the EU look stupid/intransigent & will potentially eliminate the need for the backstop......almost makes you think that the miraculous, comprehensive solution is NOT just around the corner, or why would it be kept so secret?

 

Of course, checks in the Irish Sea would eliminate a lot of the need for the backstop or a hard land border (possibly in tandem with inland checks on production standards), but that is ruled out for purely political reasons - the Tory/DUP alliance.

Yes I think it was him, interesting stuff thanks.  It will certainly be intriguing to see whether the close relationship with the DUP lasts in the event that Boris gets a majority in a GE.  

 

Whilst I understand Brexit weakens the Union, I do find it strange that independence in Scotland receives so much support given that there will be the same border issues there if we do leave the EU.

[Foxxed]

Boris removes your elected MP's voice so Boris's Brexit can fly through.

 

And Boris sets a precedent: a big and controversal decision facing Britain should not involve your elected MPs.

 

 

Edited 28 August 2019 by Foxxed

[Buce]

“You don't deliver on democracy by trashing democracy . . . we are not selecting a dictator of our country"

 

Sajid Javid 3 months ago. 

[ozleicester]

Just woke up to find that the UK is a dictatorship.

 

If the people of the UK do not change this by hook or by crook...then you will see exactly why you are a third world political country

Edited 28 August 2019 by ozleicester

[ozleicester]

Imagine, you want to leave the eu to take back your decision/law making...and now you are a dictatorship 

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

Imagine, you want to leave the eu to take back your decision/law making...and now you are a dictatorship 

I'm trying to imagine.

[ozleicester]

Financial Times....

[Kopfkino]

4 hours ago, BlueSi13 said:

People were warned not to underestimate Boris and they didn't listen.  He has played an absolute blinder here.  He's riding high in every poll and every scenario now plays wonderfully in to his hands for the upcoming People Vs Parliament election, be it before or after Brexit on the 31st 

Aye, on the front foot and outmanoeuvring the other side with skill. I don't find this move acceptable personally but from a purely short-term political strategy point of view its admirable and left himself with options. Made his opponents look mad, quickly pissed on their fire from yesterday, has dared them into a people v parliament situation, could get an election to deliver a majority to make the task of a deal 100x easier, or even bought time to possibly sort a deal and present it as deal or no deal to the existing parliament. Meanwhile, his opponents are doing the campaigning for him, every time they mention democracy and outrage I can't imagine it's doing them much favour whether they're correct or not in their musings.

 

Lest we forget, many of the most vociferous were happy to pay double or quits by rejecting the withdrawal agreement with the goal of stopping Brexit. They could of bound the hands of the then government or any future government with the backstop and a transition period whilst leaving the future relationship as a fight to be win. They preferred to take the risk and now they're kicking and screaming cos they might lose the bet. It's on them as much as its on Boris and co.