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The Politics Thread 2019

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Here's another geezer presenting the theory that Boris is seeking to provoke the blocking of No Deal and/or a confidence vote: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/28/boris-johnson-election-prorogue-parliament-populist-majority

 

The theory is that he wants to use the blocking of No Deal and/or loss of a confidence vote to run a Trumpian, populist "People v. Parliament" general election so as to win a majority.

If Farage plays ball and agrees a pact, I could see that working, too. People want Brexit "over with", Corbyn is unpopular, the opposition is divided, we have FPTP voting.....could easily happen.

 

It would be a big gamble, though. The Tories would surely be shredded in Scotland and would lose some seats to the Lib Dems in prosperous Remain-voting seats in the SE & SW.

But could they win enough off Labour to more than counter-balance that? Labour will lose seats that it gained in 2017 based on a Remainer/Youth vote surge (Canterbury, Kensington etc.) & probably lose a fair few Leave-voting seats in North/Midlands.....

 

"The last time parliament stepped in to block no deal earlier in the year, the necessary legislation was passed in just three days. Johnson has deliberately left enough time for parliament to seize control again. That’s because Johnson’s real objective is to use Brexit to win a general election, rather than use a general election to secure Brexit. By forcing the hands of his opponents, he has defined the terrain for a “people versus parliament” election. Expect him to run on “Back Boris, Take Back Britain”. He will say that the only way to definitely leave on 31 October is to give him a parliamentary majority to do so. The man of Eton, Oxford and the Telegraph will position himself as the leader of the people against the hated establishment and “remainer elite”. Johnson’s electoral strategy is simple: unite the Brexit-supporting right of politics behind him while remainers are fractured across Labour, the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens".

 

"Yet the public will be sceptical that the same people who needlessly degraded public services are now prepared to invest in them. While Johnson is unconstrained by principle or the shackles of ideology, he leads a cabinet of the hard right of the Conservative party. For those who have dedicated a lifetime to hacking back the state and severing Britain’s ties with the European Union, it seems unlikely that they are on board with a project of investment in public services. But they are certainly committed to a no-deal exit that is an Atlanticist project rather than a unilateralist one – and to the aggressive tax cuts that Johnson has promised. This is a government that intends to realign Britain to the US and is set to govern just like US Republicans – cut taxes first, then maintain spending to blow up the deficit before using that to justify far deeper spending cuts".

 

Edited by Alf Bentley
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I’m far from xenophobic and I’m clearly not an “Englander” (Don’t get me started on the political situation of Ireland....that discussion belongs in the ‘Unpopular Beliefs” thread or whatever it’s called but it’s not even leaving my head!!!

 

I don’t believe for one second we’ll boot out “foreigners” if Brexit happens. I don’t want that as we have too much to lose. 

 

I can’t tell anyone what gain a no-deal will bring this country as I don’t have a Crystal ball. However, broadly speaking, I’d like us to have a go at managing our own affairs without Brussels interfering. Let us **** it up rather than France and Germany dictating. For the record, I have nothing against those countries...I’d actually happily live in Germany. Yes, I can see the irony in that statement. 

Edited by Mickey O'Neil
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7 minutes ago, Mickey O'Neil said:

I’m far from xenophobic and I’m clearly not an “Englander” (Don’t get me started on the political situation of Ireland....that discussion belongs in the ‘Unpopular Beliefs” thread or whatever it’s called but it’s not even leaving my head!!!

 

I don’t believe for one second we’ll boot out “foreigners” if Brexit happens. I don’t want that as we have too much to lose. 

 

I can’t tell anyone what gain a no-deal will bring this country as I don’t have a Crystal ball. However, broadly speaking, I’d like us to have a go at managing our own affairs without Brussels interfering. Let us **** it up rather than France and Germany dictating. For the record, I have nothing against those countries...I’d actually happily live in Germany. Yes, I can see the irony in that statement. 

 

 

Maybe this is where it all lies - as i really don't see anything personally where the EU actually makes a decision that has a negative impact on my daily life to be honest.   Although i'm young enough to have never lived in a UK outside of the EU. 

 

I mean, outside of the twice yearly Daily Mail rants about banning curved Bananas and Christmas - What have Brussels imposed on the UK that directly affects your life?  You have to remember that the UK is represented in the EU parliament and votes on all new laws, so maybe it's our elected representatives that are at fault rather than the EU as a whole? especially given that EU election voter turnout is always so biblically poor.

 

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6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As an over-50 Remainer who thinks No Deal would be an utter disaster, I find views like this unhelpful, polarising (making Leave voters LESS likely to reconsider, not more) - and inaccurate in the case of very many Leave voters.

Apart from anything else, many over-50s have children in younger generations.

 

 

It's naive to think there's not going to be anger and abuse. Brexit could (I stress "could") break up the union, cause an increase in sectarian violence in Ireland and lower living standards. People aren't going to forgive this easily, especially after three years of "you lost get over it". I'm not saying that's right, but it's inevitable. I have defended Brexiters from accusations of being racist and thick, I don't think they are. But some now seem to want to somehow punish others for some past wrong doing that I don't honestly understand anymore. 

 

Personally I'm making tentative plans to leave the country, although I have a good job and a good life here and I really would prefer to stay here. I am worried about what the future will bring honestly. Ideology ruins countries. 

Edited by bovril
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6 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Don't agree with this at all. I believe in brexit, always have, but there's no way it works like this. It's sticking 2 middle fingers up to every remainder instead of trying to bridge the gap. 

 

We've already got the usual softies calling for violence. Don't see how going this route will help. 

This ☝️

I can’t support the method, even if I believe in the outcome.

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58 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Here's another geezer presenting the theory that Boris is seeking to provoke the blocking of No Deal and/or a confidence vote: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/28/boris-johnson-election-prorogue-parliament-populist-majority

 

The theory is that he wants to use the blocking of No Deal and/or loss of a confidence vote to run a Trumpian, populist "People v. Parliament" general election so as to win a majority.

If Farage plays ball and agrees a pact, I could see that working, too. People want Brexit "over with", Corbyn is unpopular, the opposition is divided, we have FPTP voting.....could easily happen.

 

It would be a big gamble, though. The Tories would surely be shredded in Scotland and would lose some seats to the Lib Dems in prosperous Remain-voting seats in the SE & SW.

But could they win enough off Labour to more than counter-balance that? Labour will lose seats that it gained in 2017 based on a Remainer/Youth vote surge (Canterbury, Kensington etc.) & probably lose a fair few Leave-voting seats in North/Midlands.....

 

"The last time parliament stepped in to block no deal earlier in the year, the necessary legislation was passed in just three days. Johnson has deliberately left enough time for parliament to seize control again. That’s because Johnson’s real objective is to use Brexit to win a general election, rather than use a general election to secure Brexit. By forcing the hands of his opponents, he has defined the terrain for a “people versus parliament” election. Expect him to run on “Back Boris, Take Back Britain”. He will say that the only way to definitely leave on 31 October is to give him a parliamentary majority to do so. The man of Eton, Oxford and the Telegraph will position himself as the leader of the people against the hated establishment and “remainer elite”. Johnson’s electoral strategy is simple: unite the Brexit-supporting right of politics behind him while remainers are fractured across Labour, the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens".

 

"Yet the public will be sceptical that the same people who needlessly degraded public services are now prepared to invest in them. While Johnson is unconstrained by principle or the shackles of ideology, he leads a cabinet of the hard right of the Conservative party. For those who have dedicated a lifetime to hacking back the state and severing Britain’s ties with the European Union, it seems unlikely that they are on board with a project of investment in public services. But they are certainly committed to a no-deal exit that is an Atlanticist project rather than a unilateralist one – and to the aggressive tax cuts that Johnson has promised. This is a government that intends to realign Britain to the US and is set to govern just like US Republicans – cut taxes first, then maintain spending to blow up the deficit before using that to justify far deeper spending cuts".

 

 

Johnson can't just call an election though. The opposition should concentrate on blocking No deal and refuse to vote for an election until that is secured, then initiate a VONC.

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1 hour ago, Tommo220 said:

 

 

Maybe this is where it all lies - as i really don't see anything personally where the EU actually makes a decision that has a negative impact on my daily life to be honest.   Although i'm young enough to have never lived in a UK outside of the EU. 

 

I mean, outside of the twice yearly Daily Mail rants about banning curved Bananas and Christmas - What have Brussels imposed on the UK that directly affects your life?  You have to remember that the UK is represented in the EU parliament and votes on all new laws, so maybe it's our elected representatives that are at fault rather than the EU as a whole? especially given that EU election voter turnout is always so biblically poor.

 

FOM has had a negative impact on people’s wages.The construction industry is a great example.Wages have risen since the referendum.Mainly down to the slowdown in EU workers coming to the UK.This has been officially recognised now.

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No-one voted for a no deal Brexit, it's pig ignorant to suggest that they did. It's going to be an absolute disaster and the fact that people are so happy to see the world burn around them just so they can feel smug is abhorrent.


I've given the adjectives I'd use to describe every single Brexit voter, they stand.

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38 minutes ago, bovril said:

It's naive to think there's not going to be anger and abuse. Brexit could (I stress "could") break up the union, cause an increase in sectarian violence in Ireland and lower living standards. People aren't going to forgive this easily, especially after three years of "you lost get over it". I'm not saying that's right, but it's inevitable. I have defended Brexiters from accusations of being racist and thick, I don't think they are. But some now seem to want to somehow punish others for some past wrong doing that I don't honestly understand anymore. 

 

Personally I'm making tentative plans to leave the country, although I have a good job and a good life here and I really would prefer to stay here. I am worried about what the future will bring honestly. Ideology ruins countries. 

 

Of course there's going to be anger and abuse. But it's still worth questioning the expression of anger and abuse that might increase polarisation - and make a bad outcome that little bit more likely.

 

I feel a lot of anger myself, mate, and sometimes have to bite my tongue not to abuse people. I feel that anger because I agree with your analysis. Taking it further, looking at No Deal, I think the outcomes you mention are not just possible under No Deal, but highly likely. I'd also expect a lot of other negative outcomes from short-term public disorder to long-term social conflict. I mean, what are Leave voters going to do if/when No Deal doesn't make their lives better, but potentially makes them a lot worse? Because the only way that I can see UK plc, currently an under-performing middle-sized economy, making a "success" of No Deal Brexit is by modelling our future nation on the USA, Singapore etc. What is Mr. Leave in Barnsley going to say if PM Boris, equipped with his new majority, turns round and says that we need to be more flexible about employment standards, with even less security and lower pay - and that we need to slash public services even more so as to offer big tax cuts to global corporations, otherwise they won't invest here etc? I'm very angry indeed at the outlook for the UK, particularly with No Deal (much more so than yer standard Brexit, negative though that is).

 

I considered leaving the country in my 30s, but once I got hitched, settled and had a kid, I came to assume that I'd never leave. I want to visit other countries, but I don't want to leave permanently. But I do feel that the impact of No Deal Brexit could be so bad that it could force me to leave.....and it's seriously depressing to think what it'll do to my 15-year-old daughter's prospects, as we weren't handing over a nation/world in a great state in the first place. Will she have to emigrate to have decent opportunities and to live in a half-decent society? Fortunately, we've acquired Irish passports so will have that opportunity. I hoped that I'd never want to take up that opportunity. Maybe it can still be avoided? I'm more pessimistic than I've ever been in my life.

 

21 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Johnson can't just call an election though. The opposition should concentrate on blocking No deal and refuse to vote for an election until that is secured, then initiate a VONC.

 

He could call for an election and get one if Labour backed it (needs 2/3 majority, I think). As Corbyn has been seeking another election for 2 years, it would be odd if he didn't take up the challenge....misguided as that might be.

 

Your basic strategy makes sense but views seem to differ as to whether it will still be feasible for the opposition to use legislation to block No Deal - only limited days now, with a Queen's Speech in the middle of that.

 

But at what stage, if ever, will the Tory rebels be prepared to vote for firm anti-No Deal legislation and/or vote No Confidence in their own Govt & replace it with a caretaker govt? 

Johnson seized on Merkel's misguided "30 days" comment & will surely use that to get his rebels to hold fire next week as he's "trying to get a deal".....then we're into 5 weeks of prorogation & conferences, doubtless featuring a barnstorming, patriotic conference speech by Boris calling for Britain to face up to the "intransigent" EU & the "anti-democratic Remainer parliament", to be bold and positive, this is a great nation, we can leave at Halloween, do or die etc..... If there's no election, we could easily slide into No Deal by default.

 

If he can engineer a pre-Halloween election, campaigns on a "People v. Parliament No Deal" ticket and makes a pact with Farage, he has a fair chance of winning a majority, I'd say.

Lots of people just want "Brexit over and done" (yeah, I know, it won't be) or hate Corbyn - and the chances of an effective Tory/Brexit Party electoral pact look better than those of an effective Lab/LD/SNP/Green/Plaid pact.

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3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Of course there's going to be anger and abuse. But it's still worth questioning the expression of anger and abuse that might increase polarisation - and make a bad outcome that little bit more likely.

 

I feel a lot of anger myself, mate, and sometimes have to bite my tongue not to abuse people. I feel that anger because I agree with your analysis. Taking it further, looking at No Deal, I think the outcomes you mention are not just possible under No Deal, but highly likely. I'd also expect a lot of other negative outcomes from short-term public disorder to long-term social conflict. I mean, what are Leave voters going to do if/when No Deal doesn't make their lives better, but potentially makes them a lot worse? Because the only way that I can see UK plc, currently an under-performing middle-sized economy, making a "success" of No Deal Brexit is by modelling our future nation on the USA, Singapore etc. What is Mr. Leave in Barnsley going to say if PM Boris, equipped with his new majority, turns round and says that we need to be more flexible about employment standards, with even less security and lower pay - and that we need to slash public services even more so as to offer big tax cuts to global corporations, otherwise they won't invest here etc? I'm very angry indeed at the outlook for the UK, particularly with No Deal (much more so than yer standard Brexit, negative though that is).

 

I considered leaving the country in my 30s, but once I got hitched, settled and had a kid, I came to assume that I'd never leave. I want to visit other countries, but I don't want to leave permanently. But I do feel that the impact of No Deal Brexit could be so bad that it could force me to leave.....and it's seriously depressing to think what it'll do to my 15-year-old daughter's prospects, as we weren't handing over a nation/world in a great state in the first place. Will she have to emigrate to have decent opportunities and to live in a half-decent society? Fortunately, we've acquired Irish passports so will have that opportunity. I hoped that I'd never want to take up that opportunity. Maybe it can still be avoided? I'm more pessimistic than I've ever been in my life.

 

 

He could call for an election and get one if Labour backed it (needs 2/3 majority, I think). As Corbyn has been seeking another election for 2 years, it would be odd if he didn't take up the challenge....misguided as that might be.

 

Your basic strategy makes sense but views seem to differ as to whether it will still be feasible for the opposition to use legislation to block No Deal - only limited days now, with a Queen's Speech in the middle of that.

 

But at what stage, if ever, will the Tory rebels be prepared to vote for firm anti-No Deal legislation and/or vote No Confidence in their own Govt & replace it with a caretaker govt? 

Johnson seized on Merkel's misguided "30 days" comment & will surely use that to get his rebels to hold fire next week as he's "trying to get a deal".....then we're into 5 weeks of prorogation & conferences, doubtless featuring a barnstorming, patriotic conference speech by Boris calling for Britain to face up to the "intransigent" EU & the "anti-democratic Remainer parliament", to be bold and positive, this is a great nation, we can leave at Halloween, do or die etc..... If there's no election, we could easily slide into No Deal by default.

 

If he can engineer a pre-Halloween election, campaigns on a "People v. Parliament No Deal" ticket and makes a pact with Farage, he has a fair chance of winning a majority, I'd say.

Lots of people just want "Brexit over and done" (yeah, I know, it won't be) or hate Corbyn - and the chances of an effective Tory/Brexit Party electoral pact look better than those of an effective Lab/LD/SNP/Green/Plaid pact.

 

If not now, then never.

 

I have a suspicion that Johnson has miscalculated and that this assault on democracy will be enough to make up the minds of sufficient potential Tory rebels, particularly if Corbyn can bury his pride (yeah, big if) and get behind a less contentious caretaker PM. We shall soon see.

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8 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

So the queen approved Boris the dictator's request.

 

An unelected royal allowed an unelected PM to suspend parliament so a no deal brexit plan nobody voted for can pass. Democracy in action right there.

 

The UK is finished.

When do you leave?

 

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5 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

So the queen approved Boris the dictator's request.

 

An unelected royal allowed an unelected PM to suspend parliament so a no deal brexit plan nobody voted for can pass. Democracy in action right there.

 

The UK is finished.

 

The UK was finished a long time ago when we sat idly by and watched that woman destroy the power of the unions, aided and abetted (as they are now) by a Tory press and a politically uneducated proletariat.

 

If this happened in France there would be a general strike and mass civil disobedience.

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2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

If not now, then never.

 

I have a suspicion that Johnson has miscalculated and that this assault on democracy will be enough to make up the minds of sufficient potential Tory rebels, particularly if Corbyn can bury his pride (yeah, big if) and get behind a less contentious caretaker PM. We shall soon see.

 

But, as per that article I linked, maybe Johnson's assault on democracy is deliberately calculated to provoke an early response to block No Deal and/or pass a no-confidence vote.....so that he can use that as a pretext for a pre-Halloween election to "get Brexit sorted once and for all", having been "pushed into triggering an election by the Remainer parliament & intransigent EU"?

 

I seriously hope that, behind the scenes, they are working to agree a less contentious caretaker PM, but am not confident that everyone will be ready to put party interests on the backburner (Swinson & Tory rebels as well as Corbyn)....particularly not within a week. We shall soon see, as you say.....

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Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

But, as per that article I linked, maybe Johnson's assault on democracy is deliberately calculated to provoke an early response to block No Deal and/or pass a no-confidence vote.....so that he can use that as a pretext for a pre-Halloween election to "get Brexit sorted once and for all", having been "pushed into triggering an election by the Remainer parliament & intransigent EU"?

 

I seriously hope that, behind the scenes, they are working to agree a less contentious caretaker PM, but am not confident that everyone will be ready to put party interests on the backburner (Swinson & Tory rebels as well as Corbyn)....particularly not within a week. We shall soon see, as you say.....

They don’t have time.  Three will be a deal without a backstop.  This is necessary to convince the EU no deal is a real threat. 

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Just now, Paninistickers said:

Looks like Ruth Davidson of the Scottish Tories is about to quit.

 

Shame. I was hopeful she might stand the Scottish Tories apart from Johnson in the (probable) GE and project a frwahwr version of conservatism for moderates

May only clung on because of the seats unexpectedly won north of the border.

 

If those seats are now at risk, a GE becomes riskier for our over-promoted bath toy of a PM. Especially if Davidson chooses not to remain silent once resigning, she could become a de facto figurehead for the remain camp. 

 

If she does, the balance of power between Johnson and his inter-Tory remain opponents could shit away from him.

 

And I'm all for it.

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1 minute ago, RoboFox said:

 

May only clung on because of the seats unexpectedly won north of the border.

 

If those seats are now at risk, a GE becomes riskier for our over-promoted bath toy of a PM. Especially if Davidson chooses not to remain silent once resigning, she could become a de facto figurehead for the remain camp. 

 

If she does, the balance of power between Johnson and his inter-Tory remain opponents could shit away from him.

 

And I'm all for it.

Good point. My first thought was another decent conservative being driven out by the freaks on the extreme right.

 

But, without her at the helm, they could be annihilated up there (again)....could be a smart move, as you say.

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