Corona Virus

[st albans fox]

9 minutes ago, murphy said:

The government's plan hasn't deviated as far as I can see.  It was always the plan to flatten the curve to try to drip feed the cases through the NHS as best as they possibly could so that the NHS had it's best chance of coping and those that need life saving intervention can get it.  The plan was always to introduce interventions at different stages of the curve, to that end.

 

It was actually Sir Patrick Vallance, UK's chief scientific adviser that mentioned herd immunity.  Probably speaking for the very long term but people with selective hearing blamed Boris and spread the lie that the government was prepared to let the virus run rampant and sacrifice lives as it's plan.  This was never the case.

The thing about this whole situation and how it’s unfolded is that people are surprised that many other people are stupid.  These stupid people are stupid when we don’t have a pandemic so why expect them to not be stupid when we have such a situation unfolding ......

 

quite why I’ve chosen your post to reflect on this probably reflects my stupidity!

[urban.spaceman]

[murphy]

Not one of your better ones.

[urban.spaceman]

Chris Witty's got it now.

[urban.spaceman]

At this rate they're gonna have to bring back the Maybot.

[leicsmac]

30 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

I don't know about wars but there's definitely going to be an international desire to change our relationship with China and punish them.

If there is, then the nations that do will very conveniently be overlooking their own failures to stop the spread of this in their own country, then.

 

I know this has been discussed before, but it's like this: A guy in another building starts a fire after he falls asleep smoking. Then the firefighters designated to look after your patch (as opposed to where it actually started) show up and say "it won't spread, everything's great." Then the fire spreads to your building, but the firefighters refuse to call in additional engines. Who are you going to focus on as you hang out your apartment window, trying to escape the flames? The smoker or the firefighters who are supposed to protect you? No doubt the smoker's utter disregard is what started it, but I'm definitely screaming at the firefighters to get some more fvcking fire engines here ASAP if I'm in that building.

 

The international community simply going after China alone, for all their culpability in how this all kicked off, would be daft.

[the fox]

43 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

Or we could dream of world peace and economic justice for the whole world wouldn’t that be nice 👍 

 

39 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Thanks for that

 

I needed cheering up 

Sorry for being a bit negative, fellas. But history paints a very vivid picture of the lengths some will go to in order to get what they need/want. 

 

People are vicious! I see a lot of people saying "in 100 years, we will look back at the crimes committed for oil and we will feel like fools". Well, we can just look at what salt, yes, table salt and what it did to humans.

 

 

As cliche as it sounds, history repeats itself. It was salt, it was drinking water, it was oil..etc but the lesson we can take is, people will always find a way and a reason to kill other people.

 

[Costock_Fox]

Pingu the savage.

[yorkie1999]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If there is, then the nations that do will very conveniently be overlooking their own failures to stop the spread of this in their own country, then.

 

I know this has been discussed before, but it's like this: A guy in another building starts a fire after he falls asleep smoking. Then the firefighters designated to look after your patch (as opposed to where it actually started) show up and say "it won't spread, everything's great." Then the fire spreads to your building, but the firefighters refuse to call in additional engines. Who are you going to focus on as you hang out your apartment window, trying to escape the flames? The smoker or the firefighters who are supposed to protect you? No doubt the smoker's utter disregard is what started it, but I'm definitely screaming at the firefighters to get some more fvcking fire engines here ASAP if I'm in that building.

 

The international community simply going after China alone, for all their culpability in how this all kicked off, would be daft.

Yes, but what happens to the guy who fell asleep when the fire is put out!. He get's lynched for being a cvnt.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Yes, but what happens to the guy who fell asleep when the fire is put out!. He get's lynched for being a cvnt.

Oh yeah, and no doubt, and deservedly so. Point is though, he's not the only one responsible for the fire getting as big as it did.

[st albans fox]

Italy up 919 😟

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

Italy up 919 😟

If those numbers continue to get worse they'll be bloody wiped out! Poor people.

[Leicester_Loyal]

On the importance of limiting any non-essential contact during the lockdown..

Eepidemiologist PhD student /Yale Lecturer said:
As an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from peer review.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

 

 

 

Source: https://medium.com/@jpsmithalt/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17

[the fox]

1 hour ago, Collymore said:

I think the world might be a more peaceful place with countries actually agreeing to stop investing into weapon systems and bombs and actually use it for the people. 

 

Trident costs the UK £2b a year just to run, imagine pumping that back into more useful areas for a start... 

 

America spend £650b a year on their military which is a ridiculous amount.

Thing is, the weapon business is what it is, a business. It is part of the economy. What the USA invest in the military is bringing them benefits that far surpassed the costs. £650b is nothing compared to the power they get from it. The economical and political sway they have isn't because the world likes their sitcoms and TV shows. Would China ever be where they are now, a global Juggernaut, if not for their military and technology? What stops America from attacking China is China having the ability to fight back. Simple as.

 

The UK spends that much because they are involved a lot and they have to keep the image of a strong power

 

I will stop here for the risk of going off topic

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, murphy said:

The government's plan hasn't deviated as far as I can see.  It was always the plan to flatten the curve to try to drip feed the cases through the NHS as best as they possibly could so that the NHS had it's best chance of coping and those that need life saving intervention can get it.  The plan was always to introduce interventions at different stages of the curve, to that end.

 

It was actually Sir Patrick Vallance, UK's chief scientific adviser that mentioned herd immunity.  Probably speaking for the very long term but people with selective hearing blamed Boris and spread the lie that the government was prepared to let the virus run rampant and sacrifice lives as it's plan.  This was never the case.

Except Boris went along with it, saying we should take it ‘on the chin’ and carry on our normal lives. 
 

If the initial plan was lockdown, why wasn’t it explained that we would be going through a stunted lockdown where we’d slowly reach the point now? Instead we’ve announced things days before they’re due to happen, and as a result we’ve seen hoarding, people cramming into pubs for one last drink, and lockdown rules that change an hour after the announcement. Why are we only just now panic buying ventilators? 

 

Rather than jump through all these hoops to excuse the government, why don’t we just admit the government reacted a month late and then changed the plan last minute? It’s painfully obvious that exactly what happened but we’re insistent on changing the story for some bizarre reason.

[brucey]

1 hour ago, Manini said:

You don’t die, necessarily, from the virus itself though do you (genuine question I don’t know)? It’s the onset of other issues that the virus causes that is causing deaths isn’t it? Things which would be known to medical professionals. That could be a possible answer to why it wasn’t spotted in early stages. 
 

This is obviously pure speculation I do understand not everyone will agree with what I mentioned earlier on it’s just what I think. 

You die from the virus causing lung failure (ARDS) and/or heart inflammation (myocarditis). 

These issues are new problems caused directly from the virus attacking the body, or the body responding excessively to the virus. I'm sure that counts as dying from the virus... 

 

Year-on-year respiratory deaths have gone up significantly in Italy, in contrast to the graph above. 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-is-very-important-from-italy-please-read

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Collymore said:

I think the world might be a more peaceful place with countries actually agreeing to stop investing into weapon systems and bombs and actually use it for the people. 

 

Trident costs the UK £2b a year just to run, imagine pumping that back into more useful areas for a start... 

 

America spend £650b a year on their military which is a ridiculous amount.

The Russians were sending subs into the North Sea literally yesterday.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/royal-navy-shadows-russian-warships-after-high-levels-of-activity-in-channel-and-north-sea-11963865

 

Imagine what they would be trying if the West further cut its defences.

[the fox]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

I don't know about wars but there's definitely going to be an international desire to change our relationship with China and punish them.

Thing is, what is a valid punishment? 

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, the fox said:

Thing is, what is a valid punishment? 

Total annihilation!

[urban.spaceman]

37 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If there is, then the nations that do will very conveniently be overlooking their own failures to stop the spread of this in their own country, then.

 

I know this has been discussed before, but it's like this: A guy in another building starts a fire after he falls asleep smoking. Then the firefighters designated to look after your patch (as opposed to where it actually started) show up and say "it won't spread, everything's great." Then the fire spreads to your building, but the firefighters refuse to call in additional engines. Who are you going to focus on as you hang out your apartment window, trying to escape the flames? The smoker or the firefighters who are supposed to protect you? No doubt the smoker's utter disregard is what started it, but I'm definitely screaming at the firefighters to get some more fvcking fire engines here ASAP if I'm in that building.

 

The international community simply going after China alone, for all their culpability in how this all kicked off, would be daft.

Don't disagree with that at all, but that won't stop governments and citizens wanting retribution for it - in fact it would be much easier for everyone to blame China than to take responsibility for their own failures. 

 

Just now, the fox said:

Thing is, what is a valid punishment? 

From a personal point of view - it's obviously an extremely complex political situation, a lot of which either goes over my head or I just don't care enough about to get involved. It should also go without saying that there's a huge difference between holding the Chinese government to account and attacking East Asian people and businesses because of their ethnicity. 

 

But personally? I hope this brings to an end the industrial abuse of animals. From the ivory trade, to wet markets, poaching and the torturing of dogs before slaughter. Same goes for any country or culture that tolerates any of those things. 

[StanSP]

Oh dear, Gove is at the wheel

[brucey]

3 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Don't disagree with that at all, but that won't stop governments and citizens wanting retribution for it - in fact it would be much easier for everyone to blame China than to take responsibility for their own failures. 

 

From a personal point of view - it's obviously an extremely complex political situation, a lot of which either goes over my head or I just don't care enough about to get involved. It should also go without saying that there's a huge difference between holding the Chinese government to account and attacking East Asian people and businesses because of their ethnicity. 

 

But personally? I hope this brings to an end the industrial abuse of animals. From the ivory trade, to wet markets, poaching and the torturing of dogs before slaughter. Same goes for any country or culture that tolerates any of those things. 

Great in theory, but in reality the world is far more dependent on China than vice versa. All will be forgotten, plans to shift manufacturing locally shelved, and nothing much will change. 

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, brucey said:

Great in theory, but in reality the world is far more dependent on China than vice versa. All will be forgotten, plans to shift manufacturing locally shelved, and nothing much will change. 

This

[Innovindil]

Missus just got a call from the care home she works at, 2 old folk got flu like symptoms and are being isolated in their rooms. Trouble is, they've had no visitors allowed for a couple of weeks now, so could only have been brought in by a member of staff. If they aren't showing symptoms how can you ask them not to come in, these old folk still need looking after. Impossible situation. 

Edited 27 March 2020 by Innovindil

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Missus just got a call from the care home she works at, 2 old folk got flu like symptoms and are being isolated in their rooms. Trouble is, they've had no visitors allowed for a couple of weeks now, so could only have been brought in by a member of staff. If they aren't showing symptoms how can you ask them not to come in, these old folk still need looking after. Impossible situation. 

Impossible but inevitable I’m afraid 

 

what PPE do they have ??