Corona Virus

[st albans fox]

The charts are unreliable on so many levels - simply stating that a country is in a terrible place because it has the most cases doesn’t necessarily make sense.  If we had tested everyone in this country then we would have the most cases.  the states are now showing the most cases because they have finally got their testing kits out there and given the medical set up there, many people who probably don’t need testing will be headed to these drive through testing stations.

unfortunately, the stat that matters the most in the absence of widespread testing of the population, is deaths and ICU bed usage.  And even the number of deaths is not necessarily reliable as has been pointed out re some european countries who are only identifying those who pass in hospitals with positive test results as Covid-19 victims. 

saw some worrying breakdowns of ages of people in ICU in the states ......... whether that reflects that less older people are being admitted as the ventilators are used up for those younger and more likely to survive ..........

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, goose2010 said:

Germany's figures don't sound right to me on that. 4 times the amount of the UK cases but around half the deaths? 

 

How's that even possible? Their health care that good? 

 

Here's a credible explanation: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-germany-has-such-a-low-covid-19-death-rate-11964051

 

Much more testing from an early stage, identifying many more infections - mainly non-fatal infections in the community.

That has probably also allowed them to reduce spread and fatalities, but would certainly explain the statistical disparity.

 

It's widely accepted that infection rates in the UK are multiple times higher than the official rate - in turn meaning that the fatality rate is really much lower as a percentage of infections....though we may end up with more fatalities as an absolute figure because we've identified fewer through testing.

 

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

saw some worrying breakdowns of ages of people in ICU in the states ......... whether that reflects that less older people are being admitted as the ventilators are used up for those younger and more likely to survive ..........

 

Wouldn't be surprised - when it really ramped up in Italy and they weren't prepared, some hospitals had to make snap decisions about who to treat and who to leave as there just wasn't enough staff or equipment to treat everyone coming in. There were accounts from a few insiders that pensioners were just being put into unstaffed wards with no respirators as they were prioritising treating the younger, who were deemed more likely to survive.

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo said:

 

Wouldn't be surprised - when it really ramped up in Italy and they weren't prepared, some hospitals had to make snap decisions about who to treat and who to leave as there just wasn't enough staff or equipment to treat everyone coming in. There were accounts from a few insiders that pensioners were just being put into unstaffed wards with no respirators as they were prioritising treating the younger, who were deemed more likely to survive.

That will also happen here

 

[String fellow]

How soon will it be before prisoners start being released?

[Finnaldo]

18 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The charts are unreliable on so many levels - simply stating that a country is in a terrible place because it has the most cases doesn’t necessarily make sense.  If we had tested everyone in this country then we would have the most cases.  the states are now showing the most cases because they have finally got their testing kits out there and given the medical set up there, many people who probably don’t need testing will be headed to these drive through testing stations.

unfortunately, the stat that matters the most in the absence of widespread testing of the population, is deaths and ICU bed usage.  And even the number of deaths is not necessarily reliable as has been pointed out re some european countries who are only identifying those who pass in hospitals with positive test results as Covid-19 victims. 

saw some worrying breakdowns of ages of people in ICU in the states ......... whether that reflects that less older people are being admitted as the ventilators are used up for those younger and more likely to survive ..........

How are you faring mate?

[Strokes]

18 minutes ago, String fellow said:

How soon will it be before prisoners start being released?

Why do you need a lodger?

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

How are you faring mate?

Doing ok thanks - cant shake of the slight fever (100/101) which weirdly comes on each afternoon. That’s frustrating as when I wake up, I feel right as reign.  the dry cough has become a more nagging feature but I understand that can go on for weeks. 
 

eldest kids are more than seven days and without symptoms now so can go shopping tomorrow .....bog roll count below 25 !!!!

[Costock_Fox]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Why do you need a lodger?

Think he is wanting someone to scrub his back in the shower.

[rachhere]

6 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Doing ok thanks - cant shake of the slight fever (100/101) which weirdly comes on each afternoon. That’s frustrating as when I wake up, I feel right as reign.  the dry cough has become a more nagging feature but I understand that can go on for weeks. 
 

eldest kids are more than seven days and without symptoms now so can go shopping tomorrow .....bog roll count below 25 !!!!

I am having the same with a fever coming back towards the end of the day. I'd like to do a workout, but not wanting to push myself until that has stopped.

[Jon the Hat]

42 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Perhaps their testing regimen is spot on and as such they're spotting cases that lots of other places might be missing? If so, that's good news because it implies that actual mortality rate of this thing is much lower than expected, depending of circumstances of course.

Countries are not condoning their reports of deaths. We seem to be reporting COVID 19 as the cause of death where detected, however I think some countries are not - ie if you have cancer and covid 29 finishes you off then cancer got you.  This is valid as it’s how it’s normally reported. 

[reynard]

54 minutes ago, goose2010 said:

Germany's figures don't sound right to me on that. 4 times the amount of the UK cases but around half the deaths? 

 

How's that even possible? Their health care that good? 

They have tested a lot more. Their figures are compiled daily as they operate a federal system within the country and yes frankly their health care system is pretty good. I seem to recall they had something like 25k ICU beds, 26K ventilators and had ordered another 10k before we got round to thinking about it.

Whether they will be able to cope eventually or be overwhelmed we shall have to wait and see.

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

40 minutes ago, Strokes said:

That will also happen here

 

May do but we're being really proactive in our approach with the Excel centre, lockdown, manufacturing of respirators etc, and general advice - will hopefully see a reduction of avoidable deaths

[Strokes]

13 minutes ago, Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo said:

May do but we're being really proactive in our approach with the Excel centre, lockdown, manufacturing of respirators etc, and general advice - will hopefully see a reduction of avoidable deaths

Hopefully 🤞

[reynard]

2 hours ago, Sly said:

Have some countries stop counting cases / deaths. Or am I being cynical??

 

 

Well you could question how on earth has the UK got fewer cases than Switzerland. Well offiically it is down to testing numbers.

I guess nobody really trusts the Chinese figures and Iran is a complete unknown really, save to say it is bad there. Otherwise much of Africa won't be able to test because they don't have the kits and countries like India and Indonesia are likely to have a great many cases they simply won't be able to count.

I trust figures on deaths for most democratic countries. But France for eg doesn't count those who have died in homes yet and I think our figures only refer to hospital deaths.

[Crinklyfox]

Just done my weekly shop at Sainsbury's which had an hour reserved for pensioners and vulnerable only.  It took me 30 minutes to get to the front of the queue but the numbers of shoppers inside the store had been limited, so it was worth the wait.  Shelves better stocked too but some gaps, even though the store was restricting purchases to a maximum of two of any one item.  Thankfully I purchased enough to see Mrs C and myself through the next seven days, back to self-isolating now.

[AllGoneTitsSchlupp]

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Edited 27 March 2020 by AllGoneTitsSchlupp
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[bmt]

1 minute ago, AllGoneTitsSchlupp said:

if you're meant to be self-isolating why are you going to sainsburys?

He's posted on here before, he's in a vulnerable group (as is wife) and they have nobody else to shop for them.

 

He's not self-isolating due to symptoms

Edited 27 March 2020 by bmt

[String fellow]

1 hour ago, Costock_Fox said:

Think he is wanting someone to scrub his back in the shower.

 

If I wanted to share the shower, I'd want more than just a scrubbed back!

[brucey]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Countries are not condoning their reports of deaths. We seem to be reporting COVID 19 as the cause of death where detected, however I think some countries are not - ie if you have cancer and covid 29 finishes you off then cancer got you.  This is valid as it’s how it’s normally reported. 

This is probably the reason for most of the discrepancy. I read that Germany may be doing that, not counting deaths due to Covid where there is also a significant comorbidity. I don't know if that's their usual practice? In UK the thing that actually finishes you off is listed as the cause of death, whereas all your comorbidities are mentioned but aren't considered the primary cause. 

[urban.spaceman]

 

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Goodness, the edgy neo-Malthusian nihilists coming out the woodwork on this one is really aggravating.

[Paninistickers]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Doing ok thanks - cant shake of the slight fever (100/101) which weirdly comes on each afternoon. That’s frustrating as when I wake up, I feel right as reign.  the dry cough has become a more nagging feature but I understand that can go on for weeks. 
 

eldest kids are more than seven days and without symptoms now so can go shopping tomorrow .....bog roll count below 25 !!!!

 the cough can last for weeks? 

 

I didn't know that. I reckon it's possible I had a very mild version around 4/5 weeks ago if that's the case. I cannot get rid of the very mild dry tickly cough

[urban.spaceman]

3 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Goodness, the edgy neo-Malthusian nihilists coming out the woodwork on this one is really aggravating.

I had to google half of that.

[mazarron fox]

There are thousands that have it across many countries who only generally find themselves in the statistics when hospitalized here in Spain you ring the authorities if you have symptoms and are told to isolate but are neither tested or hospitalized. A friend of mine in the uk who has just returned from Spain has all the symptoms of the virus. He rung the hotline and they agree he probably has it and to stay isolated. Whilst he has been very poorly he has not gone hospital or been tested.

 How many more thousands like him are there?