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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, l444ry said:

That's an argument for the rest of us not bothering to go on lockdown. 

By far the major vector of spread will be in the community. Sure, if we had enough resources to quarantine and test the arrivals, we could probably remove an extra 5% of the spread. But our hotels are being used to house NHS workers and we already haven't got enough tests for patients or staff. Temperature checks are ineffective (asymptomatics / paracetamol). We could ban flights from those places altogether, but the government believes that those who want to fly here will just transit through a non-banned country. 

 

Edited by brucey
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reynard

reynard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Testing is increasing. These stats are nonsense.  They should be reporting people who are hospitalised, people who die (either before or after hospitalisation) and people who recover and go home.

Aren't these still people going into hospital? How much testing is being done outside hospital? Genuine question.

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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

New cases in the last 24 hours is slightly up to 3009, from 2619. This is the important figure, and considering it was doubling a few weeks back, I think an increase of 400 on 2600 in better news. we are heading in the right direction and slowing the spread.

We are yeah. The new cases is a picture of infections from a week ago, so the lockdown has worked to slow down the new cases. But the new deaths is a picture of infections from 2-3 weeks ago, and it's a shame because it feels so avoidable. 

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Testing is increasing. These stats are nonsense.  They should be reporting people who are hospitalised, people who die (either before or after hospitalisation) and people who recover and go home.

Glad to see someone is switched on! One thing to come out of this outbreak is the realisation of just how poor the nation's grip is on data interpretation. Not all that surprising, mind.

Edited by Nod.E
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brucey

brucey

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, reynard said:

Aren't these still people going into hospital? How much testing is being done outside hospital? Genuine question.

Inpatients with symptoms get tested. People with symptoms plus minor xray changes, if they're not too unwell, are being sent home from A&E and told to self isolate without tests. So I suspect not many. Not enough tests for everyone. 

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Izzy

Izzy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BirminghamFox said:

I'm getting Zero Government support and am now on Zero income! :please:

Same here, no handouts for me as a self employed Ltd Company.

 

Clients have obviously now stopped spending and it's all turned to rat shit. 

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EastAnglianFox

EastAnglianFox

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Glad to see someone is switched on! One thing to come out of this outbreak is the realisation of just how poor the nation's grip is on data interpretation. Not all that surprising, mind.

 

Love a good know it all joining in lol

 

Come on, which word did you get wrong which caused you to edit?

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted
Just now, EastAnglianFox said:

 

Love a good know it all joining in lol

 

Come on, which word did you get wrong which caused you to edit?

You don't have to be a know it all to have a basic understanding of data.

The edit was because I missed the word 'of' between 'realisation' and 'just'. That okay with you?

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fox in the sox

fox in the sox

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

What an incredibly sad and frustrating time. Went on the planned walk to town today to buy the weeks shopping at Waitrose.

I get into town and there are a lot of people shopping, but also others just chatting (2m apart) and other just milling around.

The majority are older retired folks, as much as it dismays from a Covid-19 point of view, I find it impossible be annoyed.

 

Loneliness is a wicked dehumanising thing :(

.

I'm sorry if people are lonely, but we can't have people milling around in the centre. If we are not all in this together it is a waste of time.

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fox in the sox

fox in the sox

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Deaths is about the only solid number we have.

We also need to keep an eye on the number of new cases, this will give us an idea of where we are heading.

 

We have to accept that the death figures will be pretty dreadful for the next 5-10 days, then hope that the lockdown has an effect and starts to bring them down.

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Facecloth said:

Headline grabbing figures, but how many new cases? 

 

The death rate will probably rise in line with the fact the new case rate was rising a week ago. The last few days the new case rate has stabilised, so I expect this time next week the death rate to do the same. And as new cases drop, the death rate will too.

 

It's extremely sad people are dying but we really need to stop using that number as any kind of marker, it's largely irrelevant in the judgement of how we are battling this crisis. Obviously not irrelevant that people are dying, before anyone jumps on that.

Respectfully disagree with you on this. The rate of infections is highly dependent upon the rate of testing. This in turn depends upon the number of test kits available and as the rate of infections increases, so the supply of kits becomes less adequate. The only real guide that I would more or less trust is the number of deaths.

 

Nevertheless, it is true to say that the death rate lags the (underlying rather than measured) infection rate by probably 2 or 3 weeks, so it is true that the current death rate does not reflect the success or otherwise of the current social distancing and other measures. When it is clear that the death rate is no longer increasing exponentially it is clear the measures are working, as is now apparent in Italy. I’m sure this will become apparent in the UK over the next 2 or 3 weeks.


Edit: On reading further through this thread I see I’m rehashing points that other props have already made.

 

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Glad to see someone is switched on! One thing to come out of this outbreak is the realisation of just how poor the nation's grip is on data interpretation. Not all that surprising, mind.

I refer to my post about stupid people made several times in the past cohoe, weeks

 

as an aside, two of my kids are now showing some symptoms almost two full weeks since my eldest daughter began to show symptoms ...... so the 14 days does need to be used !!

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EastAnglianFox

EastAnglianFox

Posted
Posted
Just now, st albans fox said:

I refer to my post about stupid people made several times in the past cohoe, weeks

 

as an aside, two of my kids are now showing some symptoms almost two full weeks since my eldest daughter began to show symptoms ...... so the 14 days does need to be used !!

 

Agreed, a cohoe of stupid posts on this page alone. 

 

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, fox in the sox said:

I'm sorry if people are lonely, but we can't have people milling around in the centre. If we are not all in this together it is a waste of time.

It is not a question if its ideal or not (Its clearly not), its a statement of habitual behaviours and need fueled by isolation.

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Nod.E

Nod.E

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, fox in the sox said:

We also need to keep an eye on the number of new cases, this will give us an idea of where we are heading.

 

We have to accept that the death figures will be pretty dreadful for the next 5-10 days, then hope that the lockdown has an effect and starts to bring them down.

Ignore - wrong quote

Edited by Nod.E
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