Corona Virus

[Tuna]

Wimbledon cancelled.

 

We should really just assume any large event in the next few months will be cancelled / postponed.

[l444ry]

Just now, Nod.E said:

So easily skewable based on who it is you're testing. 

Deaths are deaths, very black and white and solid as a measurement.

The official statistics state that 563 people died of Covid-19 yesterday, meaning we're still on course to end up in a situation at least as bad as Italy in a couple of weeks.

We know that the real number of deaths is significantly higher, because Covid-19 deaths that occur outside of hospitals (home isolation, nursing homes, etc) are not being recorded.

The Office for National Statistics has estimated that 23% of deaths were missed out from the figures in the period up to March 20th.

As hospitals become ever more overwhelmed with coronavirus cases, the proportion of deaths occurring outside of hospitals is clearly going to rise dramatically, so these figures need to be collated and published too.

[Mike Oxlong]

5 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Wimbledon cancelled.

 

We should really just assume any large event in the next few months will be cancelled / postponed.

Trying to keep the unveiling of my new line in knitted willy warmers in the diary for now 

[kingfox]

8 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Wimbledon cancelled.

FFS 

 

That’s another year where Jerzy Janowicz won’t win the trophy.

[WigstonWanderer]

On 08/03/2020 at 10:03, Nod.E said:

145 people have died in Italy. Out of over 60 million.

 

I'm sorry but I just think some people have a better grasp of numbers than others.

 

Don't let the media panic you.

 

1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

Glad to see someone is switched on! One thing to come out of this outbreak is the realisation of just how poor the nation's grip is on data interpretation. Not all that surprising, mind.

Indeed!

[Guest Markyblue]

10 minutes ago, l444ry said:

The official statistics state that 563 people died of Covid-19 yesterday, meaning we're still on course to end up in a situation at least as bad as Italy in a couple of weeks.

We know that the real number of deaths is significantly higher, because Covid-19 deaths that occur outside of hospitals (home isolation, nursing homes, etc) are not being recorded.

The Office for National Statistics has estimated that 23% of deaths were missed out from the figures in the period up to March 20th.

As hospitals become ever more overwhelmed with coronavirus cases, the proportion of deaths occurring outside of hospitals is clearly going to rise dramatically, so these figures need to be collated and published too.

But they are being added now i read somewhere.?

[Nod.E]

Just now, WigstonWanderer said:

 

Indeed!

Oh leave off.

Even our own government weren't taking it seriously when I posted that. We didn't know enough information and perhaps I shouldn't have been so sure. 

To be honest, though, I still have a similar view as I did back then. Hundreds of deaths per day is obviously shocking, and I do now fully support drastic actions being taken.

However on a personal level I have no worries about dying from the virus. Neither should anybody else below 60.

To clarify, I'm not saying that makes this okay. Rather that while it's devastating that people will lose lives, healthy people need not panic (though, they are doing.)

And yes there have been exceptions to that rule, with the odd report of young, healthy people catching it and dying. Again, exceptions. 

[WigstonWanderer]

3 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Oh leave off.

Even our own government weren't taking it seriously when I posted that. We didn't know enough information and perhaps I shouldn't have been so sure. 

To be honest, though, I still have a similar view as I did back then. Hundreds of deaths per day is obviously shocking, and I do now fully support drastic actions being taken.

However on a personal level I have no worries about dying from the virus. Neither should anybody else below 60.

To clarify, I'm not saying that makes this okay. Rather that while it's devastating that people will lose lives, healthy people need not panic (though, they are doing.)

And yes there have been exceptions to that rule, with the odd report of young, healthy people catching it and dying. Again, exceptions. 

Fair enough, but perhaps a little more humility before accusing others of stupidity is in order.

[ealingfox]

7 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Oh leave off.

Even our own government weren't taking it seriously when I posted that. We didn't know enough information and perhaps I shouldn't have been so sure. 

To be honest, though, I still have a similar view as I did back then. Hundreds of deaths per day is obviously shocking, and I do now fully support drastic actions being taken.

However on a personal level I have no worries about dying from the virus. Neither should anybody else below 60.

To clarify, I'm not saying that makes this okay. Rather that while it's devastating that people will lose lives, healthy people need not panic (though, they are doing.)

And yes there have been exceptions to that rule, with the odd report of young, healthy people catching it and dying. Again, exceptions. 

 

A 13 year old with no apparent underlying conditions died yesterday bud so not sure saying nobody under 60 should worry is fair, whether there are exceptions or not.

Edited 1 April 2020 by ealingfox

[rachhere]

 

2 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Oh leave off.

Even our own government weren't taking it seriously when I posted that. We didn't know enough information and perhaps I shouldn't have been so sure. 

To be honest, though, I still have a similar view as I did back then. Hundreds of deaths per day is obviously shocking, and I do now fully support drastic actions being taken.

However on a personal level I have no worries about dying from the virus. Neither should anybody else below 60.

To clarify, I'm not saying that makes this okay. Rather that while it's devastating that people will lose lives, healthy people need not panic (though, they are doing.)

And yes there have been exceptions to that rule, with the odd report of young, healthy people catching it and dying. Again, exceptions. 

There is a genuine risk to younger people, although of course your odds are slim. However, there is a weight of responsibility on everyone if you take the impact that you can have in spreading the virus seriously. I am pretty sure I have had the virus, so have been concerned ever since about who I might potentially have passed it onto before my symptoms progressed. I had lunch out with one of my best mates during the time when i was presumably contagious, and as he would be considered at risk due to underlying health conditions, I spent a nervy couple of weeks waiting to see if he could develop any symptoms. Thankfully he hasn't. 

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, Facecloth said:

New cases in the last 24 hours is slightly up to 3009, from 2619. This is the important figure, and considering it was doubling a few weeks back, I think an increase of 400 on 2600 in better news. we are heading in the right direction and slowing the spread.

Sorry mate,but surely its far too  Early to grab at Loose straws.. 

we will See various highs & troughs the coming weeks,but like statistical employment figures,

One has to wait for longer periods that Show Trends of consistency and stabalisation..

Chasing Single day trends,will only lead to false thoughts,hope and statements....!!

Silver linings in Front of and often hiding  Storm clouds to come....

 

[l444ry]

 

17 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

But they are being added now i read somewhere.?

As I understand it, the daily death rate is hospital only and the weekly death rate includes everything. Happy to be corrected of course. 

Edited 1 April 2020 by l444ry

[Nod.E]

Just now, WigstonWanderer said:

Fair enough, but perhaps a little more humility before accusing others of stupidity is in order.

Thing is, we're in the midst of this thing now and it's still 'only' 40,000 deaths. 

What's the total going to be in 2 years? Maybe given the measures being taken now, a few hundred thousand. Maybe a couple of million.

I understand that sounds scary but people have to remember how small that number is as a proportion of the population. 

I realise how cynical that sounds when talking about hundreds of thousands of people dying, and yes it is awful that we have another big killer on our hands.

Add it to the list:

Ischaemic heart disease: 3,512,000
Cerebrovascular disease: 3,346,000
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 1,829,000
Lower respiratory infections: 1,180,000
Lung cancer: 938,000
Car crash: 669,000
Stomach cancer: 657,000
Hypertensive heart disease: 635,000
Tuberculosis: 571,000
Suicide: 499,000

People die. It's a fact of life.

We'll get through this. Just feel like the outlook is way too bleak and people are disproportionately panicked.

[Nod.E]

4 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

A 13 year old with no apparent underlying conditions died yesterday bud so not sure saying nobody under 60 should worry is fair, whether there are exceptions or not.

It's newsworthy because it's notable. It's notable because it's unusual.

[Guest Markyblue]

2 minutes ago, l444ry said:

 

As I understand it, the daily death rate is hospital only and the weekly death rate includes everything. 

You might be right,  i know i read they were going to include it maybe as you say.

[Nod.E]

6 minutes ago, rachhere said:

 

There is a genuine risk to younger people, although of course your odds are slim. However, there is a weight of responsibility on everyone if you take the impact that you can have in spreading the virus seriously. I am pretty sure I have had the virus, so have been concerned ever since about who I might potentially have passed it onto before my symptoms progressed. I had lunch out with one of my best mates during the time when i was presumably contagious, and as he would be considered at risk due to underlying health conditions, I spent a nervy couple of weeks waiting to see if he could develop any symptoms. Thankfully he hasn't. 

I'm not in disagreement with any of that. I've myself been following the guidelines.

Edited 1 April 2020 by Nod.E

[Tuna]

Who is doing today's press conference?

[urban.spaceman]

Just now, Tuna said:

Who is doing today's press conference?

Larry.

[urban.spaceman]

This is like when H from Steps came out as gay and everyone was supposed to act surprised.

 

 

[Spiritwalker]

2 hours ago, RumbleFox said:

David “son of God, lizard people” Icke? I always find people either don’t really pay attention to conspiracy theories or they seem to believe all of them. I think in general a belief in conspiracies says more about the person than the theory. Numerous studies show certain traits pop up more often amongst theorists....

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180925075108.htm

 

That is not to say some may not be true but I haven’t seen anything compelling with regards to Covid-19. X 

I think that generally believing anything that comes from authority also says a lot about a person.

[Nuge]

3 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Who is doing today's press conference?

Big Nige

[Tuna]

Just now, Nuge said:

Big Nige

Would be nice.

[WigstonWanderer]

2 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Thing is, we're in the midst of this thing now and it's still 'only' 40,000 deaths. 

What's the total going to be in 2 years? Maybe given the measures being taken now, a few hundred thousand. Maybe a couple of million.

I understand that sounds scary but people have to remember how small that number is as a proportion of the population. 

I realise how cynical that sounds when talking about hundreds of thousands of people dying, and yes it is awful that we have another big killer on our hands.

Add it to the list:

Ischaemic heart disease: 3,512,000
Cerebrovascular disease: 3,346,000
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 1,829,000
Lower respiratory infections: 1,180,000
Lung cancer: 938,000
Car crash: 669,000
Stomach cancer: 657,000
Hypertensive heart disease: 635,000
Tuberculosis: 571,000
Suicide: 499,000

People die. It's a fact of life.

We'll get through this. Just feel like the outlook is way too bleak and people are disproportionately panicked.

It’s worth noting that the 1918 pandemic is estimated to have killed between 50m and 100m people. If coronavirus were left unchecked, it would likely infect half the worlds population, say 3 billion. Even half a percent of that is 15m, and that’s based on first world hospital care without it being overwhelmed, so hardly to be dismissed so lightly. 
 

Having said that I fully hope and expect that the measures being taken (distancing, isolation, etc) will have a huge impact and that the final figure over the next couple of years will be significantly less, but it’s hardly a given.

[WigstonWanderer]

12 minutes ago, l444ry said:

 

As I understand it, the daily death rate is hospital only and the weekly death rate includes everything. 

Can’t understand why in this day and age it’s so hard to get a consolidated daily figure.

[Nod.E]

Just now, WigstonWanderer said:

It’s worth noting that the 1918 pandemic is estimated to have killed between 50m and 100m people. If coronavirus were left unchecked, it would likely infect half the worlds population, say 3 billion. Even half a percent of that is 15m, and that’s based on first world hospital care without it being overwhelmed, so hardly to be dismissed so lightly. 
 

Having said that I fully hope and expect that the measures being taken (distancing, isolation, etc) will have a huge impact and that the final figure over the next couple of years will be significantly less, but it’s hardly a given.

Oh absolutely. I'm in agreement that measures need to be taken. 

Just not really healthy that the average guy on the street thinks he or she is genuinely under threat from dying from this. 

Personally my diet has gone to sh*t during all this. The biggest threat to me right now is dramatic weight gain and the diseases that come part and parcel with that!