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Aus Fox

Champions League Points Required

By Aus Fox, in Leicester City Forum

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

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On 02/03/2020 at 18:11, Aus Fox said:


Team.      Max.   2pts.  1.5pts curr av.

Leicester  80         70         65        1.8

Chelsea    75        65         60        1.6

Man Utd   72        62        57         1.5

Wolves      70       60         55        1.5

Spurs        68       58         53        1.4

Sheff Utd  73        63        58.       1.48

 

9 game to go now and If Spurs average 1.4 points per game for t remainder of the season, they can no longer catch us, if we get 1 more point.

If we beat Watford and Spurs Manu draw, and Sheffield United don’t win. No one can outside the top 4 can catch us if they keep up their current form over the remainder of the season.

With the following game guaranteed to see teams in the mix drop points:

Man Utd v Spurs

Man Utd v Sheff United

Sheff Utd v Spurs

Sheff Utd v Chelsea

Chelsea v Wolves

 

thats without mentioning games against us, Liverpool or Man City.

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1 minute ago, Aus Fox said:

Why does it? And who cares what anyone says? If us, Sheffield United, Wolves and Liverpool are the 4 best teams, who abide by the laws of the game, then the 4 of us deserve to play Champions League.

Not sure why that makes the league dross? It makes Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal under performers based on money spent. But doesn’t mean us, Sheff Utd and Wolves are dross.

Agree.

 

Annoys me when people think something is better for so called BIG TEAMS involvement. Totally devalues the work put in. Like my mate who gets annoyed when a smaller team gets promoted because it’s apparently denying someone like Leeds or Sheffield Wednesday a place :rolleyes:

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Guest Eamonn

Guest Eamonn

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On 02/03/2020 at 10:35, String fellow said:

If life is a journey not a destination, then what does it matter where City finish in the PL? It's how they get there that matters. Once the season is over, it's over. No next match to anticipate. No team selections to discuss. No opportunity to moan about VAR's interference in the previous game. Wherever they finish, we'll have had our entertainment for the season. Seeing them lose is disappointing, but that's preferable to them not playing at all, isn't it?

You're joking, right?

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Jack1993

Jack1993

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The only problem I could see if us, Sheffield United and Wolves get the Champions League places is the big boys absolutely hating it and trying to change the rules for future seasons. I'd love it to be honest  ;)  hope the elite get relegated 

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ForeverandEver

ForeverandEver

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Next 4 games absolutely crucial for me.
 

Don’t want it hanging in the balance when we have to go to Emirates, Bournemouth away (Always a struggle), Sheff Utd, Spurs & Utd last game.

 

If that spot isn’t concluded by the last day you can see the media building the Utd game up as the most ‘exciting & lucrative’ fixture as the league is already wrapped up.

 

My 💙 can’t take it anymore. 

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davieG

davieG

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https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/how-race-a-premier-league-top-four-finish-shaping

 

How the race for a Premier League top-four finish is shaping up

Published

2 hours ago

 

The battle for Champions League qualification in the Premier League had more twists and turns last weekend, with five of the sides involved claiming victories.

Here, the PA news agency takes a look at the runners and riders in the race to finish in the top four.

 

Leicester – 3rd on 53 points

A 4-0 win over Aston Villa on Monday has Leicester back in the driving seat for a return to Europe’s elite competition. Brendan Rodgers’ side have struggled for form in recent months and had only obtained 12 points from their last 12 league games before getting the better of the Villans. The Foxes’ brilliant start ensured they still had a cushion over their top-four rivals, but it has closed significantly since the turn of the year. Everything remains in the hands of Leicester, though, with four of their final five matches against sides also looking to secure Champions League football.

 

Chelsea – 4th on 48 points

Olivier Giroud has answered Chelsea’s call for a focal point in the absence of Tammy Abraham (John Walton/PA)

Similarly to Leicester, Chelsea enjoyed a strong start to the campaign under Frank Lampard and looked on course for a top-four finish until a recent dip in form. Injuries affected their progress, but Olivier Giroud has produced the goods in wins over Everton and Tottenham. With other key players like Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic set to return during the month, the Blues are expected to be part of the Champions League next season, especially with games to come against strugglers Aston Villa, West Ham, Watford and Norwich.

 

Manchester United – 5th on 45 points

After back-to-back league defeats in January, Manchester United have turned things around and are currently on a 10-match unbeaten run in all competitions. Bruno Fernandes’ arrival has helped and it means Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men are in prime position to make the most of any slips. Tottenham and Leicester are the only top-four rivals they still have to face, with the majority of their matches against teams in the bottom half. Can the Red Devils continue their momentum or will they have to rely on winning the Europa League to get back into Europe’s elite competition?

 

Wolves – 6th on 43 points

Nuno Espirito Santo could guide Wolves into the Champions League, with the recent victory at Tottenham boosting their top four chances (Bradley Collyer/PA)

Wolves remain in the hunt for Champions League qualification, although like United they could also qualify via the Europa League. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have played a number of the teams in the race for the top-four in 2020 and achieved positive results. It leaves them on the peripheral ahead of a favourable set of fixtures with West Ham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa up next, but after that they have Sheffield United, Arsenal and then Chelsea on the final day, which may prove decisive.

 

Sheffield United – 7th on 43 points

Chris Wilder’s newly promoted side have been one of the stories of the campaign but they are determined not to drop off now. A steady start to 2020 and three wins from their last four games in the Premier League has Sheffield United arguably as one of the best-placed teams to finish in the top four. Dean Henderson has starred and will be important if they are to give their fans a European tour to look forward to. With a game in hand on the clubs above them and fixtures against Tottenham, Wolves, Chelsea and Leicester left, the Blades are in control of their own destiny.

 

Tottenham – 8th on 41 points

Harry Kane has not played for Tottenham since January 1 but is targeting a return to action in April (Adam Davy/PA)

Ahead of hosting Chelsea on December 22, Tottenham were looking likely for Champions League qualification, but injuries to Harry Kane and Son-Heung Min have hit them hard and they now look big outsiders. Poor results have followed with defeats to Chelsea and Wolves costly. A loss on Sunday to Manchester United could be the final nail in the coffin for Jose Mourinho’s side. Even with Kane closing in on a return, it seems Spurs may miss out on the top four for the first time since 2014-15.

 

Arsenal – 9th on 40 points

When Mikel Arteta took over in December, Arsenal’s main focus was to move away from the relegation zone, but with the Spaniard shoring up the Gunners defence, they can target loftier ambitions. Even though they have a big deficit to reduce, a win in their game in hand at Manchester City on Wednesday would blow open the top four battle. With goals not only coming from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal are in the mix and consecutive games against Wolves, Leicester and Tottenham in April appear crucial.

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urban fox

urban fox

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Obviously i would like to see it sewn up as soon as possible with a kittle mini run of runs over the coming few games but we will have a big say on the outcome when we play sheff utd, Man utd and spurs in the run in. We could seriously dent any or all of their hopes. As others have said would dearly love Man utd to come to us last game needing a win and we stuff them.

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  • 3 months later...
CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 02/03/2020 at 09:09, Cardiff_Fox said:

I've cracked the numbers this morning. 

 

Based on form of last 5, 

Leicester 60

Man U 58

Wolves 58

Spurs 58

Sheffield Utd 58

Chelsea 57

 

Based on form of last 10:

Leicester 61

Man U 59

Chelsea 58

Wolves 57

Sheffield U 56

Spurs 54 

Form difficult to use here but at the moment this reads 

 

Based on last 5 form:-

Chelsea 67

Man U 63

Wolves 63

Leicester 62

Sheffield U 57

Spurs 50

 

Based on last 10:-

Leicester 64

Chelsea 64

Wolves 59

Man U 58

Sheff U 56

Spurs 52

 

Sheff U could become king-makers in all this, they have to play 5 out of top 7. Over the next two match days, they have Manchester United and Tottenham. 

 

 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

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We require five wins for CL qualification. Or five match days where we equal or better the results of the chasing pack. 

 

Realistically, three wins should be enough. With three wins, we achieve 63 points - which would the following of the chasing pack

 

Chelsea to win 4/8 - 50% of their games. 

Manchester United and Wolves to win 6/8 - 75% of their games. 

Sheffield United, Spurs and Palace to win 7/8 - 87.5% of their games. 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

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9 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Form difficult to use here but at the moment this reads 

 

Based on last 5 form:-

Chelsea 67

Man U 63

Wolves 63

Leicester 62

Sheffield U 57

Spurs 50

 

Based on last 10:-

Leicester 64

Chelsea 64

Wolves 59

Man U 58

Sheff U 56

Spurs 52

 

Sheff U could become king-makers in all this, they have to play 5 out of top 7. Over the next two match days, they have Manchester United and Tottenham. 

 

 

Anything before lockdown is irrelevant, the only form that counts is since, the game has completely changed.

Realistically now, I would take Sheff United and Spurs out of the running, They need way to much to go in their favour and I don’t think they have it in either of them to collect 18-20 of the last 24 points.

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OntarioFox

OntarioFox

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Honestly, I can't see anything changing in the current table apart from us and Chelsea swapping third and fourth places. They look a real force now. Man Utd. on the other hand laboured to a sh*t draw against a crap Spurs team, and resorted to trying to con the ref to get all 3 points (which thanks to VAR they didn't).

 

Anyone below Wolves at this point is an irrelevance, but let's not flatter them either just because they won - they too looked just as rusty against one of the worst teams in the league. Though admittedly, they do have a golden run of fixtures coming up - factor in how utterly crap Arsenal now are and you'd expect them to get 9 from 9 against them, Villa and Bournemouth.

 

So yeah, Chelsea are the only rival who actually looked formidable in this first round of fixtures (and even they had to come from a goal down against one of the league's whipping boys) and given they're in the UCL spots with us it's not gonna bother me getting caught so long as we still finish top 4.

Edited by OntarioFox
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sdb

sdb

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no way will 3 wins be enough imo, utd and wolves will go on winning streaks and man City will get their ban suspended or written off completely. 

 

4 wins should do it but I think we might need 5 from 8, and yes I know nobody has been that consistent this season, but this is like a mini tournament with some very favourable run ins. And ours isn't one of them!

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