Champions League Points Required

[Aus Fox]

Okay so 10 games to go and 30 points to play for.

Let’s see how many points each team require to qualify.  
Team.        Max.    2pts.   1.5pts current av.

Leicester  80         70         65        1.8

Chelsea    75        65         60        1.6

Man Utd   72        62         57         1.5

Wolves      72        62        57         1.5

Spurs        70        60        55         1.4

Sheff Utd  73        63        58.        1.48

 

As you can see 1.5 points per game for us over our last 10 games would see us finishing 3rd, assuming none of the chasing pack average more than 2 points per game.

If 5th down continue their season long average over the last 10 games 3 wins could be sufficient for us to qualify.

I will update this table after each full round of games to see how close we are getting to qualifying.

 

Table below if that didn’t transfer across well.

 

 

[Japanfox]

Just goes to show how close it may be.

Us foxes had better find our first half of the season pretty soon.

[shailen]

I've said on other threads it would take two teams, potentially 3 if we regard 5th place as a champions league place, to go on an incredible runs till the end of the season and for us at the same time to go on a disastrous run. 

 

A lot of that is mitigated as teams in the list above will play each other which will mean that at least one will drop points. 

 

Our form has to improve but it will take a large swing for us not to get CL. 

[Reg Vardy]

Chelsea have got Everton, Sheff U away, Man City Wolves and Liverpool.......need City to beat United next week......and of course we need to win......

[volpeazzurro]

15 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Okay so 10 games to go and 30 points to play for.

Let’s see how many points each team require to qualify.  
Team.        Max.    2pts.   1.5pts current av.

Leicester  80         70         65        1.8

Chelsea    75        65         60        1.6

Man Utd   72        62         57         1.5

Wolves      72        62        57         1.5

Spurs        70        60        55         1.4

Sheff Utd  73        63        58.        1.48

 

As you can see 1.5 points per game for us over our last 10 games would see us finishing 3rd, assuming none of the chasing pack average more than 2 points per game.

If 5th down continue their season long average over the last 10 games 3 wins could be sufficient for us to qualify.

I will update this table after each full round of games to see how close we are getting to qualifying.

 

Table below if that didn’t transfer across well.

 

 

In a nutshell, it's still all to play for and not for the first time,  many of our competitors results went in our favour this weekend.  However, bearing in mind the last table shows that our current average of points share is 1.8, presumably over the season thus far.  What is that figure say, and that of our competitors, since and including our loss against Manchester City in December?

[StanSP]

Said the other day if we go on to the final 3 games with a 6/7 point lead over 4th then I think we'll do enough to secure CL football. 

[Aus Fox]

3 minutes ago, volpeazzurro said:

In a nutshell, it's still all to play for and not for the first time,  many of our competitors results went in our favour this weekend.  However, bearing in mind the last table shows that our current average of points share is 1.8, presumably over the season thus far.  What is that figure say, and that of our competitors, since and including our loss against Manchester City in December?

Over the last 10 only Manchester United have increased their points per game. 
Man Utd 1.7

Wolves.   1.5

Spurs.      1.4

Sheff U.   1.3

Chelsea    1.3

Leicester   1.1

 

If this continued over the last 10, we’d finish on 61, man Utd on 59 and Chelsea on 58.

[volpeazzurro]

2 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Over the last 10 only Manchester United have increased their points per game. 
Man Utd 1.7

Wolves.   1.5

Spurs.      1.4

Sheff U.   1.3

Chelsea    1.3

Leicester   1.1

 

If this continued over the last 10, we’d finish on 61, man Utd on 59 and Chelsea on 58.

Wow, that has to be really encouraging then hasn't it. We'd have to have a really poor run and in fairness, we've every possibility of turning things round I think. Thank you. 

[weller54]

Unfortunately we still have to play teams battling for survival...Villa, Watford, Brighton and Bournemouth could easily out battle us if the Norwich game was anything to go by!

We do look very soft and I'm not sure we'll get much from these games.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

34 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Said the other day if we go on to the final 3 games with a 6/7 point lead over 4th then I think we'll do enough to secure CL football. 

Wow, really stuck your neck on the block there Stan  

[CosbehFox]

14 minutes ago, weller54 said:

Unfortunately we still have to play teams battling for survival...Villa, Watford, Brighton and Bournemouth could easily out battle us if the Norwich game was anything to go by!

We do look very soft and I'm not sure we'll get much from these games.

Unfortunately this is the nature of the beast of being in the top positions. 
 

Traditionally we’d be 9th hoping to get enough wins for 7th

[StanSP]

Just now, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Wow, really stuck your neck on the block there Stan  

I meant we'll then get enough points in those final 3 to secure it and at least have a bit of gap going in to those games

Couldn't bear it if we were level with those sides and losing all 3 games to finish 6th instead! 

[rn9013]

We're 4/1 to not finish in the top 4. That's either an incredible bet given our disastrous form, or, given that bookies win more than they lose, it's a positive sign. 

[Spudulike]

44 minutes ago, Reg Vardy said:

Chelsea have got Everton, Sheff U away, Man City Wolves and Liverpool.......need City to beat United next week......and of course we need to win......

City are playing Aston Villa next week. Hope that helps 

[Finnegan]

This is partly why the Norwich result is so frustrating, the form of the teams around us is so bang average that if we dispatched Norwich, Villa and Watford with the ease of a top four team then those consecutive wins alone would probably have carried us mostly there. 

 

I really hope Tottenham and United can't catch us by the time we play them. 

[CosbehFox]

62 - 4 wins will be enough. 

 

If we reach that figure Chelsea have to win 60% of their games, Man U/Wolves to win 70%, Spurs/Sheffield Utd to win 80%. 

[Ric Flair]

I think what's likely to happen is we go in to those last 3 games with it still to be decided and none of us want that given our form vs better teams this season. We really do need to string 2-3 wins together in the next month.

[CosbehFox]

I've cracked the numbers this morning. 

 

Based on form of last 5, 

Leicester 60

Man U 58

Wolves 58

Spurs 58

Sheffield Utd 58

Chelsea 57

 

Based on form of last 10:

Leicester 61

Man U 59

Chelsea 58

Wolves 57

Sheffield U 56

Spurs 54

 

Looking at the fixtures, Wolves are the major threat their next four fixtures are Brighton, West Ham, Bournemouth and Villa. 

 

In the next four weeks, we have:-

Man U v Man City 

Spurs v Man U 

Chelsea v Man City

Man U V Sheffield utd

Sheffield U v Spurs. 

 

That run will probably kill off one of Sheff U, Spurs and Man U. 

 

All it does is highlight how huge our next three leagues game area. 

[ScouseFox]

11 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

62 - 4 wins will be enough. 

 

If we reach that figure Chelsea have to win 60% of their games, Man U/Wolves to win 70%, Spurs/Sheffield Utd to win 80%. 

where are we getting 4 wins from though, that's what's now become the issue. 

 

3 wins in our last 12 needs to transfer to at least 4 wins in our next 10, and we seem to be getting more clueless, more tired and giving less of a shit.

 

thank god for everyone else being so, so rubbish. 

[Haywood_6]

It was a mistake not to buy anyone in January apart from Ryan Bennet. This squad needs a lift from someone.

[Ricey]

Wolves and Man Utd have quite favourable run-ins, however, both sides struggle against teams who sit deep, so hopefully they'll drop some points along the way. Also both still have the Europa League to contend with.

[CosbehFox]

17 minutes ago, ScouseFox said:

where are we getting 4 wins from though, that's what's now become the issue. 

I am just bashing my keyboard - I can't see a win at the moment

[String fellow]

If life is a journey not a destination, then what does it matter where City finish in the PL? It's how they get there that matters. Once the season is over, it's over. No next match to anticipate. No team selections to discuss. No opportunity to moan about VAR's interference in the previous game. Wherever they finish, we'll have had our entertainment for the season. Seeing them lose is disappointing, but that's preferable to them not playing at all, isn't it?

[Jattdogg]

4 minutes ago, String fellow said:

If life is a journey not a destination, then what does it matter where City finish in the PL? It's how they get there that matters. Once the season is over, it's over. No next match to anticipate. No team selections to discuss. No opportunity to moan about VAR's interference in the previous game. Wherever they finish, we'll have had our entertainment for the season. Seeing them lose is disappointing, but that's preferable to them not playing at all, isn't it?

This is too deep right  now, i just woke up

[AKCJ]

Just done a predictor thing for the remaining games;

 

3) Leicester 68 Points

4) Chelsea 65 Points

5) Wolves 63 Points

6) Spurs 62 Points

7) Man Utd 61 Points

8) Sheffield Utd 59 Points

 

In other words, ****ing tight.

 

Chelsea vs Wolves and us against Man Utd on the last day will be tasty for the neutral.