Champions League Points Required

[FoxyJim1987]

9 minutes ago, Manini said:

The team that played in the champions league last time actually had a set of bollocks about them. That’s the difference. 

Not quite sure what you mean by this. It's mainly a young team, who have been 2nd and 3rd in the league all season, yes we have had 2 poor games but we still didn't lose them, all is not lost guys let's not carried away with saying are total shite just yet. 

That team that played champions league that season was largely awful in the league and we had a piss easy group

[Les-TA-Jon]

Had a look at some figures. I took every season that had 20 teams and gave 3 points for a win (27 seasons). Looked at points finish of all 5th and 4th place teams. 

 

5th place

Lowest: 56

Average: 64

Highest: 75

 

4th place

Lowest: 60

Average: 68

Highest: 79

 

Then I looked at lots of other areas like points per game, max available points etc and plugged it all in to give an idea of what the likely requirement is and what other teams can conceivably achieve. 

 

 

I've colour coded the points needed/droppable points - Red = impossible, Orange = 3 or fewer dropped points, Yellow 4-6 dropped points and so on. 

 

This shows that 63-65 points will likely be enough to finish 5th. Man U, Wolves, Spurs and Sheffield can only finish on 64 if they drop 6 points (or less) each. Those teams have all dropped around 1.5 points per game so far, so you might expect them to drop 12 points between now and the end of the season. 

 

Obviously its a truism that if everyone maintains form the table will stay as it is, and for teams to over take us then they need and upturn and/or us to collapse. 

 

But I think what the above shows is that the target of 8-10 is very likely to be what's needed. It's up to the players to show us if they're capable. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

And to supplement, here's everyone's Run Ins

 

[Hammo]

2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

And to supplement, here's everyone's Run Ins

 

Man United and Wolves will be licking their lips. Based on current form, you could make a strong case for BOTH of them overtaking us. I wonder what the bookies think after last night’s debacle...

[FoxFossil]

 Looking at run in, no team has an 'easy' set of fixtures actually, and Home/Away seems meaningless. Thank you ! Like many Foxes was getting a bit down after last two feeble attempts, but it is clearly still up for grabs.

Edited 24 June 2020 by FoxFossil

[Les-TA-Jon]

1 minute ago, FoxFossil said:

 Looking at run in, no team has an 'easy' set of fixtures actually. Thank you ! Like many Foxes was getting a bit down after last two feeble attempts, but it is clearly still up for grabs.

It's slightly heartening to know that teams below us probably need to take around twice as many points as us to finish above us. 

 

But either way, we need 3 wins and we'll be sorted. But we've only won 5 out of the last 16

[davieG]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-8454649/Could-Leicester-City-miss-Champions-League-amid-poor-form.html

 

Gary Lineker described Leicester's dismal display against Brighton as their worst under Brendan Rodgers... so with their form in freefall and rivals catching up, could they yet surrender that coveted top-four spot?

[jeffschlupp]

If you look at form across the last 6/8/10/12 games, both United and Wolves get between 58 and 62 points when translated to the last 8 games of the season.

 

United's best 8 game spell of the season came between 4 December and 11 January - they won 5, drew 1 and took 16 points. Wolves' best spell was also 16 points over 8 games. Again, adding those runs to their current 46 points would only take them to 62 points.

 

I think it's also important to look at the impact of returning key players who have been out for significant spells:

- Rashford: 35 pts from 23 games. Puts them at 58-59 pts based on PPG.
- Fernandes: 12 pts from 6 games. Puts them at 62 pts based on PPG.
- Pogba (starts): 6 pts from 4 games. Puts them at 58 pts based on PPG.
- Pogba (all apps): 10 pts from 8 games. Puts them at 56 pts based on PPG.
- Boly: 23 pts from 14 games. Puts them at 59-60 pts based on PPG.

 

If you isolate each club's record against 2nd-8th, 9th to 12th, 13th to 16th, plus the bottom 4, and use those to predict the outcomes of their remaining fixtures, each team gets to 57 points.

 

On results in reverse fixtures, Wolves reach 56 points and United 55.

 

The FiveThirtyEight predictor has United on 62 and Wolves on 59.

 

And based purely on the law of averages, both United and Wolves are unbeaten in the last six games. It would be quite unbelievable for them to go from hovering above 1.5 points per game to going 14 games unbeaten to end the season.

 

We also know that United have relied quite significantly on home advantage this season - 29 points at home, versus 17 away (15 games played each).

 

Overall, whatever analysis you use, it's very difficult to see United or Wolves reaching 63 points. If either got to 62, they'd have took 16 from 8 games (and 28 from their last 14!).

 

8 points will almost certainly do it. 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, or 3 wins, 4 defeats. Either is basically relegation form.

[Farrington fox]

Can’t wait for this season to end. Wish they’d have been some way of concluding it fairly without the restart.

 

Next season will pretty much run on from this. If, and based on the last 2 games, it’s a big if, we get Champions league I just can’t see how the club will cope. Probably end up in a relegation fight next season. Assuming no 2nd wave of covid. 

[LestaAl]

57 minutes ago, Farrington fox said:

Can’t wait for this season to end. Wish they’d have been some way of concluding it fairly without the restart.

 

Next season will pretty much run on from this. If, and based on the last 2 games, it’s a big if, we get Champions league I just can’t see how the club will cope. Probably end up in a relegation fight next season. Assuming no 2nd wave of covid. 

Clearly things are woeful as we run in to the end of the season  but lets not consider a relegation fight next season just yet . 

[coolhandfox]

Still think people are over estimating the amount of points Man U, Wolves are going to take, I'd be very surprise if they both break the 60 point marker, both would need to win 5 or win 4 & draw 2 to hit 60 point.

[Blanchflower78]

Pep just claiming hell drop his stars for Chelsea to go for the fa cup.

Not helping the league cause if Chelsea can pull 3 points out of this game...

[Nalis]

Think its safe to say its between us, Chelsea, Man Utd and Wolves. 

 

Spurs and Sheff Utd are a bit too far back with 7 games to go.

[The whole world smiles]

6 hours ago, Farrington fox said:

Can’t wait for this season to end. Wish they’d have been some way of concluding it fairly without the restart.

 

Next season will pretty much run on from this. If, and based on the last 2 games, it’s a big if, we get Champions league I just can’t see how the club will cope. Probably end up in a relegation fight next season. Assuming no 2nd wave of covid. 

So much negativity in such a short post. Kudos! 

[deanolegend1989]

We will need 66 Points to get top 4 I think.

think we will need 11 points from the next 6 games. Tough ask

[st albans fox]

7 hours ago, Hammo said:

Man United and Wolves will be licking their lips. Based on current form, you could make a strong case for BOTH of them overtaking us. I wonder what the bookies think after last night’s debacle...

Man  u are  playing teams fighting for their lives ......we’ve just done that twice 

 

wolves have the easiest run in after saturdays derby at villa 

[st albans fox]

Just now, deanolegend1989 said:

We will need 66 Points to get top 4 I think.

think we will need 11 points from the next 6 games. Tough ask

It’s been well explained to on this page how unlikely it is that yanited and wolves get more than around 62 points ....With our goal difference, why do you think the 5th place team will reach 66 points ??.

[deanolegend1989]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

It’s been well explained to on this page how unlikely it is that yanited and wolves get more than around 62 points ....With our goal difference, why do you think the 5th place team will reach 66 points ??.

Looking at Utds fixtures. Going in to our game at the KP. They have 6 games, I can easily see them winning at least 4 wins 2 draws out of that taking them to 63. So I’d think we would need 66 going into that game to be safe? 

[urban fox]

5 hours ago, Blanchflower78 said:

Pep just claiming hell drop his stars for Chelsea to go for the fa cup.

Not helping the league cause if Chelsea can pull 3 points out of this game...

That is worrying. Makes sense from his point of view though. 2nd place is sewn up can't win league so fa cup will be their priority. If I was a conspiracy theorist I would have a field day over this 

[st albans fox]

6 hours ago, Blanchflower78 said:

Pep just claiming hell drop his stars for Chelsea to go for the fa cup.

Not helping the league cause if Chelsea can pull 3 points out of this game...

Aguerro is out for the remainder of the season 

 

they don’t really have weaknesses do they ?  He might play sterling as a central striker which will give the Chelsea big centre halves something different to worry about ....

[foxes_rule1978]

Not the best results for us, everyone around us is in swing now and we get two lame results 

[Aus Fox]

Team.    Max.    2pts.   1.5pts 

Leicester  76      69          65   

Chelsea    75      67          63.       

Man Utd   70      63          58.        

Wolves      70     63          58

Spurs        66     59          54      

Sheff Utd  65     58         54 
 

update after 31 games*. The important thing to remember, no matter how bad the last two games have been, it’s still in our hands with 7 games to go and United and Wolves can’t afford any slip ups.

It looks like Spurs and Sheff United are too far behind to catch us.

We now go on a run of 5 games against teams who have nothing left to play for. 
At the end of the season that’s who you want to be playing. If we can get 9 points from those 5 games, then everyone else would need to be almost perfect to be in contention.

 

[deanolegend1989]

12 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Team.    Max.    2pts.   1.5pts 

Leicester  76      69          65   

Chelsea    75      67          63.       

Man Utd   70      63          58.        

Wolves      70     63          58

Spurs        66     59          54      

Sheff Utd  65     58         54 
 

update after 31 games*. The important thing to remember, no matter how bad the last two games have been, it’s still in our hands with 7 games to go and United and Wolves can’t afford any slip ups.

It looks like Spurs and Sheff United are too far behind to catch us.

We now go on a run of 5 games against teams who have nothing left to play for. 
At the end of the season that’s who you want to be playing. If we can get 9 points from those 5 games, then everyone else would need to be almost perfect to be in contention.

 

I agree but can you see us getting 9-11 points from the next 5?

i can see 5 at best!

[KrefelderFox666]

22 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

You are right, apologies! 

 

But I still don't think both of them will take 17 PTS from 24 ! 

Now they both need just 14 from 21!!!

[Ricey]

29 minutes ago, pmcla26 said:

I really hope we don’t have to rely on it, but we could finish 5th and still get Champions League. 
 

Really wish that the decision was released straight after the court hearing instead of at the end of the season. Can’t be helpful for the integrity of both the case and the Premier League as a competition. 

CAS have said they’ll announce their verdict first half of July. So we’ll know before the end of the season.