Champions League Points Required

[Suzie the Fox]

Just now, Angus Scott said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Manure win all their 8 remaining games (which means they beat us). If so it means we need 16 points from 7 games, which we are capable of but very unlikely on our recent results & performances.

I would be very surprised if they do. They still have a slow and at times poor defence not to mention *cough* Fred in midfield. 

[Aus Fox]

3 minutes ago, Angus Scott said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Manure win all their 8 remaining games (which means they beat us). If so it means we need 16 points from 7 games, which we are capable of but very unlikely on our recent results & performances.

What exactly about Manchester United under Solskjaer leads you to believe they will win all 8 remaining games?

[Leicester_Loyal]

United have won 12 in 30, but people think they'll win 8 in 8...

 

*If they do I'll look rather silly now

[mozartfox]

4 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

What exactly about Manchester United under Solskjaer leads you to believe they will win all 8 remaining games?

I suspect crack cocaine may have something to do with it...

[Angus Scott]

Just now, Aus Fox said:

What exactly about Manchester United under Solskjaer leads you to believe they will win all 8 remaining games?

I agree that Solskjaer is a liability to them, but the break has got all their players fit & they have a fairly kind fixture list. If they win a couple I can just see them getting on a roll. Let's face it, bad as they have been they have a lot of very good players

[Leicester_Loyal]

There are no easy fixtures in the last month, except maybe teams stuck in mid table who can't get Europe nor relegated. United have got Sheff Utd to play, Brighton (who still need another 4 or 5 points to make sure they're safe), Bounemouth, WHU & Villa who are fighting for their lives and us on the last day of the season. Their only two easy games might be Southampton and Palace who on their day are good teams, but won't have anything to play for.

Edited 22 June 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[foxpleasure]

12 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

United have won 12 in 30, but people think they'll win 8 in 8...

 

*If they do I'll look rather silly now

And they only drew this weekend 

[Ric Flair]

67 points will secure it for us

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

67 points will secure it for us

I'll go slightly lower, 65 points will secure it for us

[weller54]

Think it may come down to the final game of the season.. hope not though!

[enmac]

31 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

What exactly about Manchester United under Solskjaer leads you to believe they will win all 8 remaining games?

Sheffield United is their hardest game. Apart from us. 

[urban.spaceman]

Question, haven't there been changes to qualification/seeding rules since we were last in the CL? As in, we wouldn't really be much more disadvantaged if we finished 4th? Or have I just imagined that?

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Question, haven't there been changes to qualification/seeding rules since we were last in the CL? As in, we wouldn't really be much more disadvantaged if we finished 4th? Or have I just imagined that?

All the teams go straight into the groups now, I think 4th had to go into the qualifiers before. Might have been a slight change to the seeding too, can't remember, doesn't it go on previous campaigns in Europe or something over the last 5 years? I remember seeing for us it doesn't matter where we finish, we'll still be the same seed ranking in our group because we haven't previously been in europe for a number of years.

[urban.spaceman]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

All the teams go straight into the groups now, I think 4th had to go into the qualifiers before. Might have been a slight change to the seeding too, can't remember, doesn't it go on previous campaigns in Europe or something over the last 5 years? I remember seeing for us it doesn't matter where we finish, we'll still be the same seed ranking in our group because we haven't previously been in europe for a number of years.

Isn't that the coefficient that decides how many teams an Association gets? I seem to recall that league champions automatically go into pot 1 and are seeded, and the rest are decided accordingly. I thought the previous experience thing was one of the suggestions from Juventus about changing qualification. 

[AKCJ]

There are 24 points left and we have an 8 point lead.

 

Meaning if Man United win all their games we'd need 16 points to guarantee top 4.

 

5 wins and a point.

 

We have games against Brighton, Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Sheffield United, Spurs, Man United.

 

In the reverse fixtures against those teams we picked up 21 points.

 

I actually think Chelsea are likelier to drop out. Their fixture list is pretty tough. They have Liverpool and Man City to play while also playing Sheffield United away.

 

Edit; this is without considering the fact that 5th is pretty likely to be a Champions League spot.

Edited 22 June 2020 by AKCJ

[harpendenfox]

I estimated back in January we would need 64 points, and I stick by that. But if we only get to 64 points on the last day it’s going to be mighty squeaky. Leicester making us nervous? Well I never.

[Xen]

We're 8 points clear of Wolves/Man Utd with a superior goal difference, so for either to catch us would require a 1.1ppg swing. Even if we barely scrape relegation form (1ppg) they would both have to hit top-2 form (>2ppg) to come close. Even with their kind run-in I can't see a swing that severe happening. On top of that our fixtures aren't actually that bad - until the last game of the season against Man Utd our toughest fixtures are both away (Spurs and Arsenal) and the bundesliga has shown that in lockdown the away disadvantage isn't as severe.

 

Two biggest worries are that Man City somehow snake their way into the CL next season and Man Utd get within 2 points of us prior to the final day. I don't think it'll come to that, though.

[jeffschlupp]

I struggle to see how we'll need much more than 63 points.

 

And for all of the concern about getting into a good position ahead of the final three games of the season - by the looks of things Sheffield United and Spurs could be well and truly out of the race by matchday 36, and therefore they will have very little to play for.

 

Everyone panicking about Wolves seems to forget they always slip up against bang average sides - in the reverse fixtures they lost to Everton and drew with Burnley, Arsenal and Palace. 

 

Manchester United are a concern but they won't win 8 games on the spin and they won't go unbeaten.

 

Beating Brighton to keep it at least at 8 points clear with 7 points to go would be a big psychological boost. If Sheffield United pull off a result then it could be 10 points.

[Bert]

The chasing teams need to win 6/8 minimum if we get 65 points. We need to stop worrying about others and focus on ourselves. It’s worked ok so far this season. The players are confident. We are actually a very good side. Not one of our games left aren’t winnable. Teams around us have tough games to come too. 

[urban fox]

People saying that united have the easiest run in, but in fairness ours is not really that bad either. Brighton, Bournemouth, Palace, and given their current meltdown Arsenal away are all eminently winnable. Draws at Everton and Spurs doable. Sheff utd is a hard one to call and then we have MUFC on the final day. Yes we suffered a bit of a dip in form post xmas but we showed against Villa that we can still turn it on. As a previous post noted the reverse fixtures for these last 8 games yielded 21 points and an undeserved defeat against united.

The form book is out the window for whatever went before however, both for good or bad, and we should not read too much into Watford. That really was more of a "must not lose" game for both sides and it showed. A win on Tuesday, and good display against Chelsea (preferably with a win) and we could easily build up a head of steam and go on an unbeaten run.  Why is everyone expecting all the others to do just that while we struggle? Oh i forgot we are LCFC and never do it the easy way. Cue horror shows in the next three games, FT meltdown, predictions of relegation next season, calls for the managers head and then we go out and tank Arsenal, Sheff utd, Spurs and MUFC to finish 3rd (oh and beat MCFC in the fa cup final for good measure).

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Question, haven't there been changes to qualification/seeding rules since we were last in the CL? As in, we wouldn't really be much more disadvantaged if we finished 4th? Or have I just imagined that?

Regardless where we finish, other than top it’s Pot 4

[FOXYTALK]

Also Home advantage is not a factor during these matches. 

[st albans fox]

10

[waylander]

17 hours ago, Suzie the Fox said:

I would be very surprised if they do. They still have a slow and at times poor defence not to mention *cough* Fred in midfield. 

I would also be very surprised if they do. We have as much chance of winning all our games too then . 😝🤪🤪

[Guest bennytwohats]

For me the big concern is having 2 teams hot on our tails. United have looked better as a team since Fernandes has come in, and having Pogba and Rashford back will help them, alongside their kind fixtures. Likewise for Wolves who seem to have hit form lately, which also coincides with having Boly back - he’s a huge player for them.

 

The chances of one of them going on a run is much higher than either of them individually, obviously.

 

As for us, it’s been a while since we went on a convincing run and we will miss Ricardo. Watford didn’t offer much encouragement of a turnaround in fortunes. I don’t mean to be doom and gloom as it’s still well in our hands, but to be honest if we don’t win tonight I’ll be getting worried.