Champions League Points Required

[Ollie93]

2 minutes ago, Beechey said:

Remember 5th is a CL spot. So it matters more how well Wolves and Spurs do.

It's going to be close, I hope the players pull their fingers out tbh.

[teblin]

14 minutes ago, Ollie93 said:

Man U will win all their remaining fixtures, they look good. Us on the other hand...

 

They will finish around 70 points. So that means we need 15 out of a remaining 21?

I don’t think they will beat us. Could be an interesting final day.

 

[The_77]

1 hour ago, Beechey said:

Remember 5th is a CL spot. So it matters more how well Wolves and Spurs do.

Man City’s appeal has not been decided upon yet. Cannot take that chance. 

Edited 25 June 2020 by The_77

[Ricey]

 

[CosbehFox]

22 hours ago, Ricey said:

 

I've just done the maths on that and the last 5 games form, it's grim reading. 

 

It's probability versus form if we were to achieve the 7 points expected over us across the 7 games.  

To maintain the form patterns, Wolves and Man United need to win 5 games out of 7 or 4 wins, 1 draw out of 7. Probability of this is a moot point. 

 

It does prove that 9 points is likely to be enough for us. 

 

Reverse Fixtures

 

What's incredible is how Wolves and Man U performed in the reverse fixtures of their run-ins. 

 

Wolves collected 7 out of a possible 21 and only beat Villa.

Man Utd collected 8 out of a possible 21 and only beat Brighton and Leicester. They lost to Bournemouth and West Ham somehow.  

 

Obviously the circumstances have changed now - behind closed doors, both of them have no Thursday-Sunday transitions from Europe and new signings. It does suggest they have major issues playing teams who defend deep, much like ourselves. 

 

 

 

[Foxin_Mad]

The only positive is that some of the teams near the bottom are reaching the stage of perform or bust. The likes of Bournemouth, West Ham, Villa, Brighton need to start accumulating as many points as possible. In normal times there would be a few upsets from relegation threatened teams towards the end of the season. I hope that still happens. 

[Chrysalis]

hmm.

Edited 26 June 2020 by Chrysalis
unpost :p

[Christoph]

Catch me on suicide watch if we lose against Everton on Tuesday. 

[davieG]

7 minutes ago, Christoph said:

Catch me on suicide watch if we lose against Everton on Tuesday. 

You should probably reserve a spot now.

 

Next fixtures

 

Villa v Wolves

Brighton v Man U

WHU v Chelsea

Everton v LCFC

 

 

[Mickyblueeyes]

The last time we’ve been desperate for a result and in shit form, we‘ve pulled it out of the bag:

 

1. Forest, 3-2 Knockaert, last minute.
2. West Ham, 2-1 King.

3. Liverpool, post Ranieri, 3-1 

 

Add Everton to that list next week. Positive vibes because I can’t keep looking at fixtures lists. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

23 hours ago, Ricey said:

 

What would it be going back 15 games though? That's when we started being shit:

 

 

Edited 26 June 2020 by Sol thewall Bamba

[goody2028]

23 hours ago, Ricey said:

 

Would snap your hand off for that at the minute. Looks like the final match day would be interesting   

[AKCJ]

On 25/06/2020 at 09:55, Ollie93 said:

Man U will win all their remaining fixtures, they look good. Us on the other hand...

 

They will finish around 70 points. So that means we need 15 out of a remaining 21?

You think Man United will win 9 Premier League games on the bounce? Don't see that happening whatsoever. I don't know why people bother to fret themselves by saying things like that.

 

Barring the top two, nobody has won more games than us, scored more goals than us or conceded fewer goals than us.

 

We're the third best team in the country that is going through a tough spell (that looks worse than it is due to Covid).

 

Sick of the negativity on here. 10 years ago you'd have given your right bollock to be in this position after 3 games, let alone 31 games.

Edited 26 June 2020 by AKCJ

[RowlattsFox]

At least we've made the end of season interesting  

 

Looking at run ins:

 

Us - Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Sheff Utd, Spurs, Man Utd

Chelsea - West Ham, Watford, Palace, Sheff Utd, Norwich, Liverpool, Wolves

Man Utd - Brighton, Bournemouth, Villa, Southampton, Palace, West Ham, Leicester

Wolves - Villa, Arsenal, Sheff Utd, Everton, Burnley, Palace, Chelsea

 

Sheffield United and Palace have a big part to play. Palace will probably only win at our place, and Sheff Utd have gone to looking quite ordinary very quick.

 

For us, pressure on the Bournemouth, Palace and Sheff United games. I can see us getting something at Everton as I think they could well play into our hands and defensively they are almost perfect for us, just get Vardy to stand around Keane all match and wait for the mistake. Bournemouth will need to win their home games so they'll go for it, but could turn us over if we're not at it. Sheffield United has got 0-0 all over it if they can be arsed. Something will happen to ensure we lose at Arsenal like always, hopefully Mourinho will roll over for us if it ****s Man utd over.

 

Can't see where Man Utd drop points with the form their attacking players are in, maybe Brighton if they are stubborn and maybe Southampton can give them a scare.

 

Chelsea are capable of the odd dropped point here and there but they could easily win all games until Liverpool, who probably won't be arsed for the rest of the season.

 

Wolves have some mid-table teams but have had same problem as breaking teams down at times.

 

Looking at that, the champions league is overrated anyway  Lets win FA Cup instead. Much more interesting grounds cities to go to in the Europa League.

[Les-TA-Jon]

20 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

What would it be going back 15 games though? That's when we started being shit:

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

You think Man United will win 9 Premier League games on the bounce? Don't see that happening whatsoever. I don't know why people bother to fret themselves by saying things like that.

 

Barring the top two, nobody has won more games than us, scored more goals than us or conceded fewer goals than us.

 

We're the third best team in the country that is going through a tough spell (that looks worse than it is due to Covid).

 

Sick of the negativity on here. 10 years ago you'd have given your right bollock to be in this position after 3 games, let alone 31 games.

Reality is our position is good, our form is bad, and all our rivals have been in better form a while. 

 

It's 15 games since we played Villa and beat them 4-1 in December. We've the exact same record as Newcastle in that time period and slightly worse than Watford. 

 

 

So it's looking pretty tight to say the least!

 

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

 

Reality is our position is good, our form is bad, and all our rivals have been in better form a while. 

 

It's 15 games since we played Villa and beat them 4-1 in December. We've the exact same record as Newcastle in that time period and slightly worse than Watford. 

 

 

So it's looking pretty tight to say the least!

 

 

Problem is that we're playing 2 contenders the last 2 games, which could skew things. So frustrating as if we'd just put bloody Watford and Brighton away it'd be all but over. 

[AKCJ]

2 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Problem is that we're playing 2 contenders the last 2 games, which could skew things. So frustrating as if we'd just put bloody Watford and Brighton away it'd be all but over. 

Which shows how we're only a win or two away from looking extremely comfortable again.

[coolhandfox]

On 25/06/2020 at 09:55, Ollie93 said:

Man U will win all their remaining fixtures, they look good. Us on the other hand...

 

They will finish around 70 points. So that means we need 15 out of a remaining 21?

I take a bet with you they don't!

 

£20?

[Les-TA-Jon]

6 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Problem is that we're playing 2 contenders the last 2 games, which could skew things. So frustrating as if we'd just put bloody Watford and Brighton away it'd be all but over. 

Yeah it's a weird one. Clearly we put in some pretty sub-par performances in both games, and yet the margins are tight. On slightly different days, Chilwell scores a worldie winner in stoppage time and likewise we get a pen in the final minutes against Brighton. 

 

Either way, 8-9 points is very likely to be enough. We've got 4 wins out of the last 15. So 2 out of 7 (with a few draws) doesn't seem unachievable. 

[Foxin_Mad]

36 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

What would it be going back 15 games though? That's when we started being shit:

 

 

God that table doesn't bode well for next season if we dont snap out of this sharpish.

[Stadt]

Not normally such a doomer but based on how few chances we’ve created I’m not confident we’ll win more than 2 games. We’ve got a habit of being awful in big games this season as well so if we need anything going into the final 2 games I doubt we’ll do it.

[Les-TA-Jon]

Updated with latest figures, have removed 4th place, since that's largely irrelevant. 

 

And since its now looking like 65 points is the max likely requirement, have added more detailed look at points totals. 

 

 

Still looking like we need 8-9 points. 

 

Here's the run ins:

 

 

So 2 wins and 2 draws out of Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth and Sheffield could be enough. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

34 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

Which shows how we're only a win or two away from looking extremely comfortable again.

Yeah of course, but the fact that we were what 14 points ahead of 5th at one point and now we'll most likely have a final day shootout with Man Utd (who we've beaten once since we got promoted), is very frustrating. 

[coolhandfox]

8 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Yeah of course, but the fact that we were what 14 points ahead of 5th at one point and now we'll most likely have a final day shootout with Man Utd (who we've beaten once since we got promoted), is very frustrating. 

Frustrating, but probably predictable when you look at our squad, are attacking options are paper thin in wide areas and upfront. 

 

As much as Nacho has showed promise, I don't think he is a good enough back for a side chasing the top 4.

 

In wide areas we have a Barnes a great player but lacks experience, a good solid but average PL pro in Albrighton, and a two very hit and miss player in Perez and Gray.

 

We should have strengthened in the January window.

Edited 26 June 2020 by coolhandfox

[Nalis]

Need Villa and Brighton to do us a favour before we play Everton, away wins for Wolves and Man U would be a disaster.

 

The only teams in the league with nothing to play for at present are probably Southampton and Newcastle.