The Politics Thread 2020

[Mike Oxlong]

17 hours ago, Vacamion said:

 

Salmond is properly sticking the boot into Sturgeon today.

 

Ooooft.

 

 

Can’t see the Krankies having much of a future after this 

[bovril]

Watch SNP's support now plummet from 53% to 51%

[urban.spaceman]

19 hours ago, StanSP said:

 

 

 

 

12 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

My personal favourite:

 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

 

[String fellow]

As of tomorrow at midnight, this thread (The Politics Thread 2020) will be 2 months out of date. 

[CosbehFox]

Interesting that of all the tabloids to pick it up, it’s the Daily Mail who have gone after Boris regards using a charity in which fund the refurbishment of his wife flat 

[Dr The Singh]

On 26/02/2021 at 20:09, Paninistickers said:

Just skimmed the coveragem.all fur coat and no knickers.

 

He hasn't landed anything like a killer blow, with his memory stick garbage.

 

fascinating to watch a ruined late middle aged, physically repulsive sex blob attempt to drag anything and anyone down with him. 

 

prob end up in the next 6 months alone in an empty 60s tower block flat surrounded by cat shite and used needles

You talking about @Webbo???

[UpTheLeagueFox]

"I'll wait for Survation."

 

 

Kieth up one point is progress.

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

"I'll wait for Survation."

 

Kieth up one point is progress.

 

Thanks, Guff, but I'll wait for 2024.....not that any of us have any choice about that, regrettably. 

[Fightforever]

2 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

"I'll wait for Survation."

 

 

Kieth up one point is progress.

I have lost hope in Labour ever winning an election in the near future. I reckon it's a Tory dynasty for decades to come. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 hours ago, Fightforever said:

I have lost hope in Labour ever winning an election in the near future. I reckon it's a Tory dynasty for decades to come. 

 

A lot of people thought the same after the Tories won a fourth consecutive term in 1992.

But Labour won a landslide in 1997 and remained in office until 2010....... "events, dear boy, events", as Macmillan apparently didn't say.

 

Admittedly, the success of the vaccine rollout probably means bad local election results for Labour this year, unless some other negative "event" derails the Tories before May.

 

The disgraceful mishandling of pandemic response before the vaccine rollout might yet come back to haunt the Tories if a proper investigation happens before 2024 & it's not kicked into the long grass.

Maybe not. Maybe the electorate will set the good vaccine programme against the bad pandemic response and give them the benefit of the doubt?

 

I read recently how almost every single incumbent Govt worldwide currently has decent poll ratings - many better than the UK Tories. Will that last until 2024? Who knows....

 

But the Tory Govt will have their work cut out to remain popular until 2024:

- Major economic fallout from Covid impacting jobs & lives

- Pressure from some on Tory side for deficit reduction, while having to spend big during Covid recovery

- Plus expectations of lots of costly "levelling up" to benefit those who switched to the Tories in 2019....

- ....while satisfying traditional Tory desires for tax cuts etc.

- Expectations for good outcomes from Brexit probably leading to massive disappointment

And that's without the potential incompetence this Govt has already shown itself capable of, or more Covid complications or other events...and for the Tories needing an absolute majority again in 2024 due to lack of viable coalition partners

 

Admittedly, the Left is also highly skilled at shooting itself in the foot, so we'll probably have the Corbynistas forming a new rival Real Labour Party to split the vote or something....  

[David Guiza]

I can't see it happening, but if we are able to host more of the Euro 2020(1) games and England have a half decent tournament too then the Tories will ride that wave also. Particularly thanks to the 'class swing' with many working class football supporters now being Tory voters. 

 

The 21st century summer of love after 18 months of hardship could see any government through. Who knows what the world will be like come 2024 though, we could be living in a utopian fantasy post COVID with another baby boom and an unprecedented number of children named Boris, Whitty, and Captain Tom. The sky is bluer and the grass greener than it's ever been before, the EU sending us booty call texts at 2am begging us to come back, and Sir Gareth of Southgate given the keys to England following our Euro and World Cup double. 

 

Alternatively, we could be living in some sort of dystopian nightmare with the government launching a 'dig for Britain' campaign whereby hoards of the public are encouraged to grow their own 'bollocks to Brussells sprouts' to counteract the ever increasing food crisis following the Brexit disaster. Southgate is behind bars after it transpires that he illegally entrapped Allardyce to get the big job and as a consequence Allardyce was awarded the national job on an American style academic tenure basis whereby he will never leave. There are daily protests outside Wembley after England lose their 14th successive qualifying game to The artist formerly known as Macedonia thanks to another error from Kevin Nolan. This crisis has only be exacerbated by Scotland being made World Champions, which was followed by Nicola Sturgeon winning Eurovision 2023 with 'Yes Sir, I Can Boogie' dressed as Rab C Nesbit. 

 

So yeah, things could change.  

[Buce]

46 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

I can't see it happening, but if we are able to host more of the Euro 2020(1) games and England have a half decent tournament too then the Tories will ride that wave also. Particularly thanks to the 'class swing' with many working class football supporters now being Tory voters. 

 

The 21st century summer of love after 18 months of hardship could see any government through. Who knows what the world will be like come 2024 though, we could be living in a utopian fantasy post COVID with another baby boom and an unprecedented number of children named Boris, Whitty, and Captain Tom. The sky is bluer and the grass greener than it's ever been before, the EU sending us booty call texts at 2am begging us to come back, and Sir Gareth of Southgate given the keys to England following our Euro and World Cup double. 

 

Alternatively, we could be living in some sort of dystopian nightmare with the government launching a 'dig for Britain' campaign whereby hoards of the public are encouraged to grow their own 'bollocks to Brussells sprouts' to counteract the ever increasing food crisis following the Brexit disaster. Southgate is behind bars after it transpires that he illegally entrapped Allardyce to get the big job and as a consequence Allardyce was awarded the national job on an American style academic tenure basis whereby he will never leave. There are daily protests outside Wembley after England lose their 14th successive qualifying game to The artist formerly known as Macedonia thanks to another error from Kevin Nolan. This crisis has only be exacerbated by Scotland being made World Champions, which was followed by Nicola Sturgeon winning Eurovision 2023 with 'Yes Sir, I Can Boogie' dressed as Rab C Nesbit. 

 

So yeah, things could change.  

 

You lost me at England winning a major tournament.

[bovril]

9 hours ago, Fightforever said:

I have lost hope in Labour ever winning an election in the near future. I reckon it's a Tory dynasty for decades to come. 

My money would be on the Conservatives but they still have a recession, Scottish nationalists, and Brexit to deal with. Those have been partially obscured by Covid and the understandable relief at the vaccine success. 

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Admittedly, the Left is also highly skilled at shooting itself in the foot, so we'll probably have the Corbynistas forming a new rival Real Labour Party to split the vote or something....  

You do see some absolutely baffling takes online. If you'd rather keep the Tories in than vote for a Starmer-led Labour Party then the chances are you don't actually care about helping the kind of people you claim to care about helping.

[BlueSi13]

14 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

"I'll wait for Survation."

 

 

Kieth up one point is progress.

Said it before the last election and I'll say it again here.  Labour are absolutely ****ed.  Losing Scotland and its 50+ seats means that the route to an out and out majority is now practically shut off.  

 

Without that vast swathe of Scottish seats it now means that Labour must now take back the red wall and the Midlands, smash it in Wales AND make MAJOR inroads in the South to gain a workable majority.  Something that even Tony Blair in 1997 struggled with.  

 

I for one can't see how they even begin to do that.  When it comes to the big topics during an election like the economy, national security, law and order, immigration, foreign policy (particularly the EU), Labour are in no mans land.  Even subjects like the NHS won't have much of an impact as the public are deaf to the screeching about the Conservatives selling it off (what happened to us selling it to Trump BTW?)

 

For example if this polling was accurate come election time in 2024, the Conservatives would still have a healthy 42 seat majority.  If the polling was switched, Labour would be short of a majority by 20 seats and would need to form a coalition with the SNP (which would no doubt involve yielding to the yestapo and agreeing to a 2nd referendum).  Also, this also assumes we use the current boundary conditions which are estimated to favour Labour by about 10 seats.  By all accounts that will be rectified in the next GE.

 

I've said it before that Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet should almost be camped out in Scotland at this point to try and take those seats back.  For one Labour are the historical party of power in Scotland and two, it would play very well in England where the SNP are utterly toxic.  But instead Labour are utterly MIA and are treating Nippy with kid gloves because they've accepted they can't "win" a General Election without them.  

 

As a Conservative (former raving lefty in my youth) voter, I personally don't find it a particularly healthy situation.  

[leicsmac]

19 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Said it before the last election and I'll say it again here.  Labour are absolutely ****ed.  Losing Scotland and its 50+ seats means that the route to an out and out majority is now practically shut off.  

 

Without that vast swathe of Scottish seats it now means that Labour must now take back the red wall and the Midlands, smash it in Wales AND make MAJOR inroads in the South to gain a workable majority.  Something that even Tony Blair in 1997 struggled with.  

 

I for one can't see how they even begin to do that.  When it comes to the big topics during an election like the economy, national security, law and order, immigration, foreign policy (particularly the EU), Labour are in no mans land.  Even subjects like the NHS won't have much of an impact as the public are deaf to the screeching about the Conservatives selling it off (what happened to us selling it to Trump BTW?)

 

For example if this polling was accurate come election time in 2024, the Conservatives would still have a healthy 42 seat majority.  If the polling was switched, Labour would be short of a majority by 20 seats and would need to form a coalition with the SNP (which would no doubt involve yielding to the yestapo and agreeing to a 2nd referendum).  Also, this also assumes we use the current boundary conditions which are estimated to favour Labour by about 10 seats.  By all accounts that will be rectified in the next GE.

 

I've said it before that Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet should almost be camped out in Scotland at this point to try and take those seats back.  For one Labour are the historical party of power in Scotland and two, it would play very well in England where the SNP are utterly toxic.  But instead Labour are utterly MIA and are treating Nippy with kid gloves because they've accepted they can't "win" a General Election without them.  

 

As a Conservative (former raving lefty in my youth) voter, I personally don't find it a particularly healthy situation.  

Thankfully, enough turnout to overcome a swathe of gerrymandering and voter suppression last November happened. Oh, and evading a soft coup attempt in January, too.

 

But turning to the meat of the post, yeah, this is a fair analysis of the present state of play. That being said, four years can be a long time in politics.

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Said it before the last election and I'll say it again here.  Labour are absolutely ****ed.  Losing Scotland and its 50+ seats means that the route to an out and out majority is now practically shut off.  

 

Without that vast swathe of Scottish seats it now means that Labour must now take back the red wall and the Midlands, smash it in Wales AND make MAJOR inroads in the South to gain a workable majority.  Something that even Tony Blair in 1997 struggled with.  

 

I for one can't see how they even begin to do that.  When it comes to the big topics during an election like the economy, national security, law and order, immigration, foreign policy (particularly the EU), Labour are in no mans land.  Even subjects like the NHS won't have much of an impact as the public are deaf to the screeching about the Conservatives selling it off (what happened to us selling it to Trump BTW?)

 

For example if this polling was accurate come election time in 2024, the Conservatives would still have a healthy 42 seat majority.  If the polling was switched, Labour would be short of a majority by 20 seats and would need to form a coalition with the SNP (which would no doubt involve yielding to the yestapo and agreeing to a 2nd referendum).  Also, this also assumes we use the current boundary conditions which are estimated to favour Labour by about 10 seats.  By all accounts that will be rectified in the next GE.

 

I've said it before that Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet should almost be camped out in Scotland at this point to try and take those seats back.  For one Labour are the historical party of power in Scotland and two, it would play very well in England where the SNP are utterly toxic.  But instead Labour are utterly MIA and are treating Nippy with kid gloves because they've accepted they can't "win" a General Election without them.  

 

As a Conservative (former raving lefty in my youth) voter, I personally don't find it a particularly healthy situation.  

 

You make some good points and it would certainly be a tough task for Labour to win a majority in 2024, but you overstate your case, I think.

 

I agree that Labour should be doing more in Scotland, though how much that would achieve short-term I'm not sure. Scotland seems polarised  re. independence and the SNP, making Labour's "union but devolution" stance irrelevant. But a lot will happen in Scotland before 2024: civil war has broken out in the SNP; it's unclear that Sturgeon will still be leader in 2024 or what the SNP will do if Johnson blocks a referendum; meanwhile he is personally unpopular in Scotland and a number of Tory seats are fishing areas, hardly benefiting from Brexit so far. Certainly cannot assume Labour gains in Scotland, but we can assume a lot of turbulence - and some chance of a Labour comeback under a new Scottish Labour leader who seems better than the old one.

 

Labour suffered a bad defeat in 1992 but in 1997 won a majority of 179. You say that Blair "struggled" to make major inroads in the South, but Labour won an absolute majority of seats in England in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Not easy to repeat, but not impossible either. Plus, even under the disastrous Corbyn leadership, Labour made a handful of gains in the South - that drift of urban/southern seats to Labour might continue, particularly if the Lib Dems continue to make little impact and the Tory Govt has to take unpopular decisions or makes incompetent ones in the next 3 years.

 

Labour might seem in "no man's land" at the moment in the policy areas you mention. But there's every reason to think most of those policy areas will become more difficult for the Tories: economic issues post-Covid; expectations re. Brexit benefits & reduced immigration & crime; possible tax rises or failure to "level up"; inability, as a medium-sized power to influence USA, China, Russia etc. What happened with the purported NHS sell-off was that the Govt didn't do the promised trade deal with the USA and Trump got booted out......neither of which necessarily makes life easier for the Tories re. trade & influence.

 

On the other hand, you're right that boundary changes will make things even tougher. Also, for the first time recently, Johnson has started to look like he can "do serious": i.e. present a sober, serious, even difficult message to the public. That's seriously bad news for Labour as previously he seemed only good for what is now called "boosterism" (unfounded optimism, humour, "charismatic" entertainment and breezy dismissals of gloom). There could be a lot of "serious" to be done in the next 3 years, so that's bad news for Labour if Johnson has developed some ability to do that.

 

I'm not predicting some glorious Labour comeback. I'd just say there's a massive amount of uncertainty in turbulent, difficult times for an incumbent govt. It's by no means impossible that circumstances and good strategy could conspire to produce a Labour majority in 2024 - and the Tories losing their majority looks distinctly possible. Who would they then rely on to prop them up? Personally, I'd welcome a Labour-led minority in 2024, not least as other parties might force electoral reform on them. It was insane hubris of Labour to renege on the promised electoral reform referendum in 1997, when it might have been won.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Lack of decent opposition is crap for everything, I genuinely hope Labour or another party can get it together.

 

Potentially a lot of people may not bother voting next time, I reckon that's how a lot of people feel at the minute, but by 2024 that could all have changed.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

1 hour ago, BlueSi13 said:

Said it before the last election and I'll say it again here.  Labour are absolutely ****ed.  Losing Scotland and its 50+ seats means that the route to an out and out majority is now practically shut off.  

 

Without that vast swathe of Scottish seats it now means that Labour must now take back the red wall and the Midlands, smash it in Wales AND make MAJOR inroads in the South to gain a workable majority.  Something that even Tony Blair in 1997 struggled with.  

 

I for one can't see how they even begin to do that.  When it comes to the big topics during an election like the economy, national security, law and order, immigration, foreign policy (particularly the EU), Labour are in no mans land.  Even subjects like the NHS won't have much of an impact as the public are deaf to the screeching about the Conservatives selling it off (what happened to us selling it to Trump BTW?)

 

For example if this polling was accurate come election time in 2024, the Conservatives would still have a healthy 42 seat majority.  If the polling was switched, Labour would be short of a majority by 20 seats and would need to form a coalition with the SNP (which would no doubt involve yielding to the yestapo and agreeing to a 2nd referendum).  Also, this also assumes we use the current boundary conditions which are estimated to favour Labour by about 10 seats.  By all accounts that will be rectified in the next GE.

 

I've said it before that Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet should almost be camped out in Scotland at this point to try and take those seats back.  For one Labour are the historical party of power in Scotland and two, it would play very well in England where the SNP are utterly toxic.  But instead Labour are utterly MIA and are treating Nippy with kid gloves because they've accepted they can't "win" a General Election without them.  

 

As a Conservative (former raving lefty in my youth) voter, I personally don't find it a particularly healthy situation.  

 

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You make some good points and it would certainly be a tough task for Labour to win a majority in 2024, but you overstate your case, I think.

 

I agree that Labour should be doing more in Scotland, though how much that would achieve short-term I'm not sure. Scotland seems polarised  re. independence and the SNP, making Labour's "union but devolution" stance irrelevant. But a lot will happen in Scotland before 2024: civil war has broken out in the SNP; it's unclear that Sturgeon will still be leader in 2024 or what the SNP will do if Johnson blocks a referendum; meanwhile he is personally unpopular in Scotland and a number of Tory seats are fishing areas, hardly benefiting from Brexit so far. Certainly cannot assume Labour gains in Scotland, but we can assume a lot of turbulence - and some chance of a Labour comeback under a new Scottish Labour leader who seems better than the old one.

 

Labour suffered a bad defeat in 1992 but in 1997 won a majority of 179. You say that Blair "struggled" to make major inroads in the South, but Labour won an absolute majority of seats in England in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Not easy to repeat, but not impossible either. Plus, even under the disastrous Corbyn leadership, Labour made a handful of gains in the South - that drift of urban/southern seats to Labour might continue, particularly if the Lib Dems continue to make little impact and the Tory Govt has to take unpopular decisions or makes incompetent ones in the next 3 years.

 

Labour might seem in "no man's land" at the moment in the policy areas you mention. But there's every reason to think most of those policy areas will become more difficult for the Tories: economic issues post-Covid; expectations re. Brexit benefits & reduced immigration & crime; possible tax rises or failure to "level up"; inability, as a medium-sized power to influence USA, China, Russia etc. What happened with the purported NHS sell-off was that the Govt didn't do the promised trade deal with the USA and Trump got booted out......neither of which necessarily makes life easier for the Tories re. trade & influence.

 

On the other hand, you're right that boundary changes will make things even tougher. Also, for the first time recently, Johnson has started to look like he can "do serious": i.e. present a sober, serious, even difficult message to the public. That's seriously bad news for Labour as previously he seemed only good for what is now called "boosterism" (unfounded optimism, humour, "charismatic" entertainment and breezy dismissals of gloom). There could be a lot of "serious" to be done in the next 3 years, so that's bad news for Labour if Johnson has developed some ability to do that.

 

I'm not predicting some glorious Labour comeback. I'd just say there's a massive amount of uncertainty in turbulent, difficult times for an incumbent govt. It's by no means impossible that circumstances and good strategy could conspire to produce a Labour majority in 2024 - and the Tories losing their majority looks distinctly possible. Who would they then rely on to prop them up? Personally, I'd welcome a Labour-led minority in 2024, not least as other parties might force electoral reform on them. It was insane hubris of Labour to renege on the promised electoral reform referendum in 1997, when it might have been won.

Two very measured posts.

So many variables over the next few years.

[Scotch]

8 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

Two very measured posts.

So many variables over the next few years.

I wouldn't exactly call comparing an independence movement to the Nazis "measured"...

[UpTheLeagueFox]

6 minutes ago, Foxy_Bear said:

I wouldn't exactly call comparing an independence movement to the Nazis "measured"...

I've just re-read the posts I've quoted from @BlueSi13 and @Alf Bentley and I still haven't a clue what you're on about, Foxy.

[Scotch]

Just now, UpTheLeagueFox said:

I've just re-read the posts I've quoted from @BlueSi13 and @Alf Bentley and I still haven't a clue what you're on about, Foxy.

"Yestapo".

 

Essentially a childish dig at Scottish nationalists, comparing them to the Gestapo/Nazis. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

4 minutes ago, Foxy_Bear said:

"Yestapo".

Essentially a childish dig at Scottish nationalists, comparing them to the Gestapo/Nazis. 

Didn't clock the word tbh but you might be over dramatising things a wee bit

[Scotch]

2 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Didn't clock the word tbh but you might be over dramatising things a wee bit

Possibly but I would also argue that associating people like myself who are democratically campaigning for national independence to an organisation who oversaw the killing of millions of people is a tad on the melodramatic side.