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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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Just now, StanSP said:

And parks maintaining the social distancing as well? 

 

Yes it would be good if these announcements can not be made on Thursdays for the following Monday. With good weather I feel it gives too much temptation to the public to do it over the weekend. 

 

Why can't it just be announced on a Monday?! Or Sunday evening? 

It does seem very strange its announced today. The only logical reason i can see is perhaps to take the heat / media away from Dominic Cummings and offer the public something positive to think about? But thats just a guess. 

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1 minute ago, StanSP said:

And parks maintaining the social distancing as well? 

 

Yes it would be good if these announcements can not be made on Thursdays for the following Monday. With good weather I feel it gives too much temptation to the public to do it over the weekend. 

 

Why can't it just be announced on a Monday?! Or Sunday evening? 

Yes it was always OK in parks for just 2 people, now it's been extended to 6 and includes gardens as well 😊

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4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

And parks maintaining the social distancing as well? 

 

Yes it would be good if these announcements can not be made on Thursdays for the following Monday. With good weather I feel it gives too much temptation to the public to do it over the weekend. 

 

Why can't it just be announced on a Monday?! Or Sunday evening? 

Forgot the other bit, yes I really don't understand the delay either. I know from the initial timeline we've had to be updated on the Thursday or Friday, but I don't know why the new rules can't start straight the way... At least it's something to look forward to for many people though 

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Might sound weird but I relate the corona virus death toll to football ground capacity ...    it helps me understand the magnitude of it ...   we’ve passed the King Power and next is Everton ...   I imagine being in that ground and looking round at all those people ...   so sad.

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11 minutes ago, Suzie the Fox said:

It does seem very strange its announced today. The only logical reason i can see is perhaps to take the heat / media away from Dominic Cummings and offer the public something positive to think about? But thats just a guess. 

It's happened in previous weeks as well though.

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8 minutes ago, StanSP said:

It's happened in previous weeks as well though.

They must be aware that people will think what difference is a day or 2. I'm sure they treat it as a soft opening. Some people will go ahead and some will stick to the rules. I'm sure it's accounted for.

 

Now we have more available testing I expect infection rates to go up. For me, I would be concentrating more on Covid-19 related hospital admissions rather than the infection number.

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I noticed they were quoting the underlying number of people infected from serology testing as less than 8%. If true, this is a big blow to the idea that herd immunity is a way out of this, and debunks at least some of Prof Gupta’s assertions.

 

The only hope along these lines is the paper that @Lionator posted some time ago that suggests that the threshold for herd immunity might lower (perhaps dramatically so) than the 60% to 70% range derived from a simple calculation based on the underlying R0 of the virus. 

 

I am convinced that there is something in this idea, but even so, herd immunity would require several iterations of the current cycle, pretty much ending up with a deaths total similar to the Imperial College model I’d think.

 

Test and trace is the only real answer pending a vaccine and/or better treatments.

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14 minutes ago, filbertway said:

They must be aware that people will think what difference is a day or 2. I'm sure they treat it as a soft opening. Some people will go ahead and some will stick to the rules. I'm sure it's accounted for.

 

Now we have more available testing I expect infection rates to go up. For me, I would be concentrating more on Covid-19 related hospital admissions rather than the infection number.

From the point of view of limiting the spread of the infection, it is the number of infections in the community that is important.

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6 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

From the point of view of limiting the spread of the infection, it is the number of infections in the community that is important.

My point is that they could be going down overall though. Now more people are being tested, were seeing the wider communities results.

 

The only thing that is constant through this whole time will be number of hospitalised people.

 

Its like asking people that turn upto the king powerif they support Leicester.

Then a month later asking everybody in Leicester if they support Leicester.

 

Even though statistically there's an increase in Leicester fans, in reality the number of Leicester fans hasnt changed.

 

Might not be a great analogy but I hope it makes sense haha!

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1 hour ago, UniFox21 said:

Correct, as long as they don't enter the house and are all socially distanced then you're able to

wrong, explicitly announced entering of house is permitted.

 

Probally because access to garden is not possible in all houses without going through the home.

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15 minutes ago, filbertway said:

My point is that they could be going down overall though. Now more people are being tested, were seeing the wider communities results.

 

The only thing that is constant through this whole time will be number of hospitalised people.

 

Its like asking people that turn upto the king powerif they support Leicester.

Then a month later asking everybody in Leicester if they support Leicester.

 

Even though statistically there's an increase in Leicester fans, in reality the number of Leicester fans hasnt changed.

 

Might not be a great analogy but I hope it makes sense haha!

I guess if you’re just talking about the trends, then yes, hospitalised cases do give something more solid to base things on.

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35 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

I noticed they were quoting the underlying number of people infected from serology testing as less than 8%. If true, this is a big blow to the idea that herd immunity is a way out of this, and debunks at least some of Prof Gupta’s assertions.

 

The only hope along these lines is the paper that @Lionator posted some time ago that suggests that the threshold for herd immunity might lower (perhaps dramatically so) than the 60% to 70% range derived from a simple calculation based on the underlying R0 of the virus. 

 

I am convinced that there is something in this idea, but even so, herd immunity would require several iterations of the current cycle, pretty much ending up with a deaths total similar to the Imperial College model I’d think.

 

Test and trace is the only real answer pending a vaccine and/or better treatments.

There does seem to still be this hope. No city/country has gone above the 20% antibody threshold but there could be lots of factors at play.

 

There's also been a couple of other papers coming out of China which have also supported cross-immunity from other coronaviruses. 

 

Ultimately our biggest hope currently it seems is to try and stop clusters forming by avoiding large indoor gatherings. We now know that this is how out of control spread happens, in clusters. 

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22 minutes ago, nnickn said:

wrong, explicitly announced entering of house is permitted.

 

Probally because access to garden is not possible in all houses without going through the home.

To access the garden at most, nothing more or for any longer. So basically not allowed in the house. 

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1 minute ago, UniFox21 said:

To access the garden at most, nothing more or for any longer. So basically not allowed in the house. 

Chris Whitty said "if people need to go into the house to use the loo then they can but they must sanitise everything" 

 

 

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2 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

Been saying a similar thing, 1887 new cases which is still a large amount. We seem to be seeing a reduction and thinking its all gone away. Personally think we're a week or 2 too fast with these decisions, but obviously we don't know the full picture or have as much info as the Gov. do

Thing is it’s lmpossible to understand what this means. The new 1800 cases....does that include hospital tests, retests even multiple retests of infected people. The key number surely is the new cases in the community which we’ve no idea what that is. Of course it would be too much for our media people to ask the scientists that at the press conference today when they can try to stir up more tittle tattle.

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